#Congress

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President Santos set to announce re-election bid in summer

presidente-santos

Colombia President Juan Manuel Santos will leave us waiting until June to confirm his intention to run for re-election in 2014 it was revealed yesterday.

In a Colmundo Radio interview the president set the summer date hoping to end the constant speculation that had surrounded the timing of his announcement. Theoretically the president had until November to say either way, but Santos has chosen to bring this forward to avoid a possible clash with the scheduled announcement of the end of peace talks with the FARC.

The peace talks, currently underway in Havana, are due to conclude not before the autumn and Santos’ move is designed to decouple his bid to remain in the Casa de Nariño Presidential Palace from the negotiations with the terrorist group.

The reality is of course that whether the president likes it or not, his political future is inextricably linked to the process in the Cuban capital. Many believe that the only thing that stands between the president and a second term is a possibly disastrous conclusion to the talks.

Few expect them to break down, but even if they do, Santos will be able to manage his way out of all but the most unpredictable of situations. Should the FARC break ranks and launch a series of brutal attacks or should they take out a leading politicians while talks are underway, for example, Santos might struggle to avoid severe castigation at the polls. But otherwise he will not be seriously untroubled. Santos must control the talks even if that means bringing them to a premature end if the FARC appear not to be playing ball.

So why is the election so much within the gift of the president?

In a recent interview, Green Party Senator John Sudarsky told Colombia Politics that Santos has the election all but wrapped up because of the institutional power and patronage available to the president’s office.

Parliamentarians have danced to Santos’ tune since August 2010 – with over 90% of congress aligned to the coalition administration – and the majority are expected to stay on the president’s ticket, returning him large swathes of the country, and giving him the necessary votes to cancel out the efforts of a challenger.

To Sudarsky, and to many others, Colombia’s democracy is clientelist and bureaucratic meaning power remains in the hands of he who already has it.

But it’s also true that Santos’ voter popularity remains relatively high, despite a difficult year in office. Before 2012 began Santos’ approval ratings were sitting pretty, between 70 and 80%.

The numbers who view his administration positively are now hovering around half of the electorate. Yet despite the alarmist calls from many within the Colombian media, it is difficult to conclude that this figure is entirely calamitous for a president about to embark on his third year in office.

And if you were worried about Santos’ popularity, well 2013 will be  year where the administration attempts to point to “delivery” to the positive effect the new laws passed in the period 2010-12 are having on the society.

Expect this year and next to read like a long list of new houses build, record employment numbers, record numbers lifted out of poverty, land returned to victims, murder rates lowered, economic growth.

Santos may even borrow the line from his old friend former British Prime Minister Tony Blair who once famously campaigned on the slogan, “Lots done, lots still to do”.

Will support creep up? Possibly so. Where Santos ends up in 2014 and what sort of congress he has to work with will depend on how well the results are communicated and how much the electorate feels they are benefitting from them.

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Interview Senator John Sudarsky, part four

Senator John Sudarsky spoke to Colombia Politics about democracy, Colombia´s political system, the challenges the country faces, the peace talks with the FARC, and his proposed reform to the electoral process.

This is the fourth extract from the interview, where Senator Sudarsky talks about the prospects for his electoral reform, its importance to the peace process, and the inherent lack of accountability in Colombian democracy.

Key quote:

“In Spanish you don’t have a word for ‘accountability’, in Swedish you don’t have a word for ‘clientalism’. In Spanish you have a paragraph to explain accountability – it is absent from the culture.”

Thanks to Notedije Producciones for filming and editing the interview.

Category: Interviews, Videos
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The isolation of Álvaro Uribe?

These are worrying times for Colombia´s ex-president Álvaro Uribe, as the political tide turns against him, the media deserts him, and the governing class close ranks behind President Santos.

Is Uribe in danger of losing his political voice?

Whether you or I support him is irrelevant, it is a simple fact that many feel a very real connection with the ex-president. Uribe is a politician used to the limelight, and unconditional support and loyalty. In 2010 he left power as Colombia`s most popular ever president. And despite the attacks on his government throughout the last two years, he has maintained a strong following not only among those who instinctively share his politics, but among the millions – particularly in rural areas – whose feel their lives improved significantly during the Uribe government as the FARC was pushed back.

He will have been dismayed then by last week´s poll that showed his popular appeal as low as 53%. Ok, not disastrous for an ex-president, but the fall of 3% between June and September is now part of a negative trend.

The polls are one thing, but the national politics will be even more concerning.

Congress voted en masse in favour of President Santos´ peace talks, leaving Uribe – or at least Uribism – as the only force against them. Uribe will have hoped for more disquiet in congress, greater indication from his allies that they are with him; but for now Santos holds all the cards. The president even brought retired police  chief and rumoured potential Uribista candidate for the 2014 elections, Óscar Naranjo into the negotiating team, dufusing a potential opponent.

Following the vote, last Wednesday I spoke to Colombia Reports:

“As Santos’ coalition partners rally behind the president, Uribe is in danger of becoming a lone voice against the talks.”

“However, Uribe may prove to be right and if the FARC are bluffing, then the Conservatives and U Party members still loyal to the ex-president could well swing behind their old boss, and in a blink of an eye.”

“But for now the prudent thing for all politicians to do is to support the president, to wait if and until the talks break down to strike,”

All is far from lost for Uribe, the future in Colombian politics is famously impossible to predict, and sections of the political class could yet jump ship and join him – particularly as I said if the peace talks fail, and or as we approach the elections.But it also true that 77% of the population support the forthcoming peace talks, and no politician wins votes by telling their electorate that their dreams are built on false hope – at least not while the dream is still alive.Uribe´s politics of NO NO NO are finding it difficult to get traction outside his circle of ´true believers´.And finally, with the news last week that Pacho Santos has left his morning radio slot on RCN, Uribe has been left with precious few spokesmen in the Colombian media.

Pacho Santos was Uribe´s vice-president and has remained a fiel servant of his old boss. The morning show was seen as a counterweight to other, less Uribe-friendly output.

During the Uribe years the media was unquestionably on his side, perhaps unquestionly so. But President Santos – himself a former journalist, and of course familiarly tied to a media oligarchy – now has the vast majority of the nation´s mass communication outfits either on his side, or at least losely in his court.

According to La Silla Vacia, an independent digital news source, even the Medellín-based El Colombiano newspaper the number one cheerleader for Uribe in the written media is shifting slightly its editorial view following the departure of loyalist Ana Mercedes Gómez.

All this is a very different picture from that taken earlier in the summer when Uribe launched the new political movement Puro Centro Democrático (PCD) – the platform to take Uribism back to the presidential palace in the Casa de Nariño.

At this time, Santos was plummeting in the polls, the FARC were at war with the army in the south west department of Cauca, and the ex-president´s mano dura mesage of security was striking home. So while Uribe himself cannot stand himself for president, the nation was beginning to view at least curiously the emergence of a PCD candidate to lead the opposition to the Santos regime (and  to his re-election campaign in 2014). Uribe may win this battle in the long run, but Colombia must hope that Uribe is wrong and that the FARC will demobilise.

The ex-president would do well to prepare for this eventuality, and must begin to set out an alternative manifesto to the current government, a prospectus that goes beyond security and peace.

If he does not then the danger for him is that his isolation will be complete.

Category: Comment, Peace talks
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Colombia’s Santos sacks cabinet to save his government

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos demanded the mass resignation of his cabinet Wednesday in an attempt to re-launch his flailing government, and kick-start the 2014 re-election campaign.
After a catastrophic few months for the president in which popular support for his administration has plummeted, and during which the FARC guerrillas reappeared as major players on political stage, Santos has decided that the fight back must begin.
The nation awaits news of the changes that Santos will make to his ministerial team, but the talk is that they will be wide-ranging and dramatic.
At stake is the future of the National Unity coalition government as parties decide whether to stick with Santos or join Uribe’s opposition movement.  It remains unclear whether Santos will be able to head off the Uribe threat – his tactic is to hand out key cabinet positions to the parties discontent with the government’s direction.
Also in play is the quest for peace. There has been talk – today confirmed by W radio station – that the government are already negotiating with the FARC.  How will this play in the nation? It is almost certain to pull apart sections of the coalition and polarize the electorate.
Santos must react by forming a cabinet that is politically strong, and able to energize the public.  Above all, Santos knows he must change his cabinet into an electioneering force, able to communicate the successes of the government, and unite the nation.
But until now the president’s team has failed connect – especially with those outside of the capital,Bogotá.
Why? Santos has surrounded himself with a team of technocrats – a necessary evil given the president’s desire to ensure the first two years of his administration were defined by major policy reforms.
We are now in the second period of the 2010-14 mandate, however, and the demands are different – they are necessarily now more political, with a capital P.
The end of the ‘dream team’
When Santos came to power in August 2010, the Colombian press labelled his cabinet the ‘dream team’. The collective wealth of talent and glittering CVs of those within the new government was contrasted with ex-president Uribe’s court. There was talent in Uribe’s team sure, but loyalty and commitment to the cause was prized above all else.
Uribe’s ministers were subordinates while Santos has adopted a ‘first among equals’ approach to governing; delegating and devolving power.  All this was fine when things were going well, but following the crises of the past months, and with the upsurge in FARC activity, the country now demands strong leadership.
So, who will Santos replace?
While it is important to see which personalities change, the real decisions Santos must make are how to keep his coalition partners happy.
Last month the Conservatives demanded changes to the health and education ministries, and Santos must hand out these – or similar – goodies if he is to keep the center-right on side. Likewise, the president is also mindful of a threat from the center-left, and is said to be in talks with the Green Party’s Lucho Garzon to bring him into the top team.
Given the need to re-position the cabinet and the requirement to tie together the coalition, there are plenty of reasons to suggest at least half of the cabinet could go.
The ministers of health, education, transport, and environment appear first in the firing line. It is not only the Conservatives who have attacked the health and education ministers, polls show the nation as a whole is less than content with their performance. At the same time, the transport minister Peñalosa is in real trouble as he faces accusations of corruption following the award of lucrative state contracts to members of his family, and while the environment minister Frank Pearl is considered a solid performer, he looks set to be moved to become the spokesman for the government’s peace efforts (a role he has performed in previous governments).
These expected changes could be followed by a second rung of ministers who may well also face the axe. The interior minister Renjifo is new in his position but has been on notice from day one – he arrived at the worst possible time, coinciding with the institutional chaos and the breakdown in relations between the congress and the executive caused by the failed Justice Reform bill. Señor Renjifo is a close friend and ally of Santos so it is expected he will be moved rather than dumped. And finally signals also suggest that Santos is frustrated at the glacial speed at which agriculture minister Restrepo is implementing the land restitution policy – a key pillar of the Santos administration’s reform agenda.
A new pluralism
All this speculation is part of an emerging pluralism in Colombian politics. The country appears to be in a form of shock this morning – but the reality is cabinet reshuffles (perhaps on a less dramatic scale, of course) are part of the normal structure of political life in European countries. While changeswere made during the Uribe years, there was never a mass resignation; it is over ten years since the last time a president pulled the plug on his entire cabinet.
Why is this the case? Put simply, it is the first time in modern Colombian politics that the issue of re-election has been a dynamic. The constitution of 1991 placed a one-term limit for presidents of the republic, a law that was amended early this century to permit Uribe to stand again in 2006. But while Uribe was virtually guaranteed victory that year, the same is not true for Santos; his re-election is now anything but a foregone conclusion.
As a result there are politicians or all shades ‘examining their conscience’ and vacillating on whether to support his candidature.
In short, while there was never an imperative for Uribe to make such a dramatic move because he was never in threat of extinction, Santos has been compelled to act to save his political bacon.
So Santos has sacked his cabinet, but will this save his government?
The last few months have been game changers. A perceptible deterioration in the country’s security situation has been compounded by a series of institutional crises that have threatened the governability of the country.
If Santos’ bold move yesterday fails to arrest the dramatic decline in voter support and hold together his coalition he is doomed.
We must await the puff of smoke to see who emerges in the president’s new team before we draw any conclusions about the likely success of this tactic.
Author Kevin Howlett is a political commentator and owner of political weblog Colombia Politics. Follow him on Twitter or join him in the debate on Facebook.
This was a piece for Colombia Reports.

 

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Introduction to Colombian politics

Changing of the guards, Casa de Nariño photo President´s Office

When I first came to Colombia Alvaro Uribe was president, and Juan Manuel Santos was his right-hand man and Defence Minister. By the summer of 2010 Santos had been elected to continue Uribe’s hard-line policies against the FARC. Today the two men are enemies, with Uribe the official opposition to his former protégé.

A week is always a long time in politics, but in Colombia it is an eternity. I have worked in and around the UK Parliament for close on 10 years, but in my two years in Colombia I have witnessed a whirlwind of change and covered a barrage of stories that would keep even the hardiest of political commentators on his toes.

Life is never dull in Colombia, and even if politics are not your thing, this country’s own peculiar brand of government cannot fail but to enrage, entertain, exalt, or dismay you; as it has done me.

In Colombia politics really matter. The issues are of war and peace, of mind-blowing corruption, wire-taps, and other very serious matters. It is of course also about nobler pursuits like the fight against poverty and a fairer education for all.

So how do Colombia’s politics work?

Colombia has the longest running democracy in Latin America. Unlike her neighbours, she has not had to put up with tin-pot dictators. However, the fragility of the state and her inability to govern large parts of the country, has allowed the formation both of the right-wing paramilitaries AUC and the communist-guerrillas the FARC and the ELN.

The FARC is the longest-running terrorist group in Latin America – its war against the Colombian state has lasted for over half a century. The paramilitaries grew out of the self-defence militias that formed when the government was unable to protect its citizens, or their land.

Violence and criminality have shaped not only the nation but also the political class. Pablo Escobar was famously elected to congress in the 80s, while just a few years ago dozens of leading politicians were found to have links with paramilitaries and were promptly sent to jail.

Colombia is a presidential system which places significant power in the executive (the president and his cabinet). The legislature is formed of the congress which is split into two houses, the senate and the ‘house of representatives’. The third arm of the state is the judiciary.

The president is elected every four years and, thanks to a change to the constitution made during Uribe’s period in office (2002-2010), the nation’s head of state can be re-elected (once). There is much speculation as to whether current President Juan Manuel Santos will seek a second term in 2014.

Congress is elected in the same year as the president, while city mayors and councillors as well as departmental governors are elected a year later. Bogota’s Mayor, Gustavo Petro was elected in 2011 and is considered to be the second most important politician in the country.

Santos runs the country with a coalition government that controls over 90% of the congress, allowing him to push through virtually any law he wishes. Santos is considered to be a centre-right politician, and is a former member of the Liberal Party. His government has taken the country in a different direction from the right-wing Uribe, concentrating more on social issues, and seeking a peaceful end to Colombia’s conflict.

Uribe represents the country’s right while the Polo Democratic Alternative is the official party of the left. Unfortunately for them, the left in Colombia is split from head to toe, reducing its electoral power. Unlike most other countries in Latin America, Colombia tends to the right while the left plays a largely peripheral role in the nation’s political life.

Colombia’s political parties are complicated and fractured. Although the Constitution of 1991 allowed the formation of new political parties, the Conservatives and the Liberals governed the country as a two-party state until the arrival of Uribe in 2002.

Uribe entered the presidential palace as an independent, elected on the Colombia First platform he created when he split from the Liberals. The Uribe years spawned the arrival of a series of new parties like Radical Change, the Greens, Polo, and the party of the U, President Santos’ party. The majority of these parties are now under the coalition umbrella of Santos’ government.

Colombians understandably have trouble keeping up with the changes in their political parties and it is often difficult for them to perceive a clear ideological message from those who seek their vote. This, and the outrage at the level of corruption, has meant that voter-turnout in elections has been low, and Colombia’s democracy has failed so far to develop into a fully participative system.

It’s complicated and highly personalised, but Colombian politics are entertaining and breathless. Despite the justifiable criticisms of her people, decisions taken in the Casa de Nariño (the presidential palace) have ensured that in two decades Colombia has shaken off its ‘failing state’ label and is now one of the fastest growing economies in the world.

This was a piece for See Colombia Travel.

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Colombian Conservatives place President Santos on notice

Senator Cepeda, Conservative Leader, photo, Semana

As the curtain raised on a new session of congress on Friday, Efraín Cepeda, the director of the Colombian Conservatives, warned of a ‘crisis’ in President Juan Manuel Santos’ National Unity coalition government.
The leader of the second largest parliamentary force was speaking after a special meeting of his troops where their presence in this coalition was confirmed, but where it was also conditioned on big change.
Cepeda is exploiting the first serious signs of weakness in the Santos regime; the president is desperate to restore relations with congress, and is starting to look over his shoulder as Alvaro Uribe’s political party takes shape. 
Many Conservatives are ideologically tied to Alvaro Uribe rather than President Santos and will be tempted, as we approach the pre-election cycle next year, to join his movement. For Santos the price of their continued support has risen significantly. 
The Conservatives’ march towards unity?
Efraín Cepeda was sworn in as president of the Conservatives at the end of last November taking over from José Darío Salázar. Salázar left the parted divided; those on the centre were left cold by the socially right-wing campaigns of 2011 (against gay-marriage and abortion). Andrés Pastrana, the last Conservative president (1998-2002), spent much of the year attacking the party for its policy direction and its supine attempts to weed out corruption within the collective. 
Although Cepeda arrived in parliament on the coat-tails of Pastrana, he has allies on both wings of the party and was seen as a unity candidate, bringing the Pastranistas and Uribistas together. His job of keeping his colleagues batting for the same team has been made more difficult, however, by the emergence of Alvaro Uribe’s Puro Centro Democrático. The stakes are now higher and should he fail, many Conservatives could jump ship. A further complication is that Former Defence Minister and leading Conservative (although also previously a member of the U) Marta Lucía Ramírez is even talked about as a possible Uribista presidential candidate. Under such circumstances the gravitation pull towards Uribe could become a force impossible for some to resist. 
To keep the Conservatives together, Cepeda must secure more goodies from the president. The parliamentary party will be less inclined to leave the coalition if they are tied in by grace and favour and if they feel their voice is heard more in the decision-making process.
Santos / congress relations a Conservative opportunity?

Congress feels scapegoated by the president. Santos only weeks ago forced his coalition partners to vote down the controversial Justice Reform bill days after he had whipped them to vote it through. Public anger at the legislation led to pillorying of parliamentarians; accused en masse of corruption and self-interest.

The parliamentarians’ resentment arises from the feeling that Santos pushed much of the blame onto them instead of accepting the government’s role in the fiasco – after all the government proposed the legislation, they argue. This discontent was evident as Interior Minister Federico Renjifo stood up to speak during the vote to ditch the JR bill – in an unprecedented reaction from congress toward a minister of state, Dr Renjifo was whistled at and boo-ed.

Reaction to JR bill led to a strategic rethink from Santos. At a special cabinet meeting to determine a way forward – called earlier this month – Santos told colleagues that he was focused more on public opinion than on securing harmonious relations with the law-makers. The Santos administration is, however a reforming government that needs the security or the ‘governability’ (the president confesses this is his favourite word) of the National Unity coalition. It is little surprise then that ahead of the start of the new parliamentary year (the third, and penultimate in Santos’ first mandate), diplomacy between the presidential palace and its legislative partners went into overdrive.

Efraín Cepeda is taking advantage of this situation. Under Salázar, the Conservatives were the opposition within the coalition. The party’s old boss is an arch-Uribista and was one of the first politicians to criticise Santos for departing from the ex-president’s Democractic Security doctrine.

When Cepeda took over efforts were made to repair the relationship. In February, the new leader was one of the first out of the blocks to defend the Santos regime when news emerged of the exiled Luis Carlos Restrepo’s attempted political coup to prevent the president’s re-election. The Conservatives were ‘proud to support the government’, Cepeda confirmed.

The cost of coalition politics

The Conservatives are calling in their chips, but how do they want Santos to pay? Effectively it comes down to do things – personnel and policy, and the Conservatives want Santos to show more leg on both.

Something the president needs to resolve quickly is Cepeda’s assertion that there are ‘useless ministers’ in the cabinet, a ‘crisis’ at the heart of the government. Cepeda has attacked the ministers for education and for health – both for their abilities and politics.  In doing this, Cepeda has announced that his Conservative party is moving to occupy this key social policy territory. He will want Santos to recognise this by moving Conservatives to these positions. 

This is smart politics. The tactic is to position the Conservatives not as the party of pro-life anti-gay hardliners but instead a modern political movement focused on removing the social barriers to success, to reducing poverty and to increasing opportunity.

It is also a move that understands where the public mood is starting to turn. The government has faced criticism for its education policies (particularly its university reform proposals which were shelved due to public protest), and its inability to resolve the health crisis which many highlight as political ticking time-bomb about to explode. Should Conservative ministers arrive in these positions and offer an alternative, a way out of the mess, then the party will be well positioned as the country moves into pre-election mode next year.

The Conservatives want high-profile ministers in high-profile roles and they want Santos to start to deliver Conservative policies. As senate spokesman Hernán Andrade warning Santos – the relationship must be ‘reciprocal’ between the party and the government.

This website has reported before on the disquiet within Conservative ranks (recorded early on in Santos’ regime) at the direction the government is heading. The feeling has been that Santos has been suspiciously minded towards Liberal Party policies – and indeed Liberal politicians. Under Salázar in particular, the Conservatives felt marginalised, an afterthought in the coalition. Cepeda’s move on Friday seeks to use the game-changing events of the Justice Reform bill to ensure that a more Conservative looking agenda is pursued by the Casa de Nariño. Cepeda has given the president a choice, he has told him to demonstrate that the Conservatives have a role to play or to expect their eventual opposition to his government. From the sidelines Uribe will attentively await Santos’ answer.

Also published on Redes Colombia

 

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Colombia’s Twitter revolution kills off another top public figure

A friend to phone? Photo, El Tiempo

Colombia’s internet indignados have struck again, this time ending the career of Emilio Otero, the controversial Senate Secretary caught in the eye of the storm as the nation revolts against a congress they view as decadent and self-serving. 

Otero yesterday morning announced he would not be seeking re-election to a post he has occupied since 2002 and for which he commanded an annual salary of over two hundred thousand US dollars. 

The game was up as the hastag #ChaoEmilioOtero trended earlier this week and as senators took to the airwaves to distance themselves from the man (fairly or otherwise) seen to symbolise the moral decay of the political class. Pushed out just two years after he was sworn in for his fifth term with 87% support from parliamentary colleagues, Otero’s life as one of the nation’s most powerful public administrators has come to an abrupt end.
Who is the Senate Secretary?
Elected every two years the Senate Secretary (SS) is a figure little known outside the Capitolio but one who enjoys great privilege and power within it. He is responsible for setting the agenda for congressional sessions; programming – deciding the fate of – legislative initiatives that come before the chamber. And perhaps even more importantly for those who tread the boards of the political stage, the SS is the official who dishes out the offices and armoured vehicles; it is he who patronises grace and favour. 
Otero himself has office space sufficient to accommodate not only his ten advisers but also to receive in comfort his constant stream of visitors. Those who pass through his doors are ministers of state, old timers, or newly elected members, all with demands on congress’ time – to promote their own particular pet project.
For ten years Otero arbitrated proceedings in the upper house. He recorded those present and those absent from debates, helped push through (or allowed to sink) proposed new laws, and decided the bill amendments to be brought before the senate for discussion. 
Who is Emilio Otero? 
Despite his longevity in the post, Otero’s face was unrecognisable to 99% of Colombians until the end of June this year. The Justice Reform bill forced his name into the public domain. 
Otero is alleged to have played a role in the infamous ‘conciliation’ stage of the bill in which representatives from both houses of parliament appended amendments that, among other measures, would have legislated   for (virtual) legal impunity for elected members. 

Congress eventually voted down the bill (having days before passed it) following vehement public opposition and the historically unprecedented decision by President Santos to refuse to rubber stamp the final document. 
A suspicious public began to question the motives of Emilio Otero when it emerged that among these new ‘monkey’ clauses (as they are called in Colombia) lay the provision that any criminal cases against the SS could only go before the Supreme Court – reducing significantly the possibility of a conviction. 

The media investigated Otero’s past and found a number a legal skeletons in the cupboard. Perhaps the most intriguing find was the 1996 sanction by state prosecutor for his alleged discrepancies in the awarding of contracts (a case that was not followed up). To add to this, various congressional disciplinary charges against his name emerged, (including for trafficking of influences, for signing documents from outside the country when the senate was sitting, and for filling a departmental vacancy with a person who failed to meet the basic criteria for the post). Under normal circumstances in Colombia none of these alleged cases would necessarily deliver a fatal blow, but in the context of increased public scrutiny in the revolutionary climate of the days following the passing of the Justice Reform bill, this was very damaging indeed. 
Finally, Otero was not helped by the size of this salary package. Otero’s many years in congress means he is remunerated to the tune of 360 million Colombian pesos, a handsome sum indeed. Any new entrant to the post would receive considerably less on account of a new (and less generous) regime of financial reward. 
The campaign to prevent Otero’s re-election
As the media began to build Otero’s profile, social networkers initiated a campaign against his re-election. Emboldened by the taste of Justice Minister Esguerra’s blood, and the smell of a humiliating government retreat, the twitter-rebels had Otero’s scalp in their sights.
The hastag #QuienEsEmiloOtero trended, first to raise public awareness of the man, then journalists and citizens alike bombarded senators with messages urging them to vote for anyone but Otero. The citizen’s coalition, as it was called, was joined by the former anti-corruption Tzar, Óscar Ortiz González who urged followers to heed the messages within RCN television’s documentary on the senate elections.  

The political class then also began to speak out – Juan Manuel Galán, Liberal Party spokesman in the senate, Amando Benedetti U Party member and former president of the senate, and John Sudarsky of the Green Party, were the first members to announce in public that they would not vote for the incumbent. 
With days to go before the vote  originally scheduled for today – Otero was, however, still hopeful of victory.  Reports circulated that he was due to meet each party grouping and undertake a series of one-to-one meetings with key power-brokers to secure his votes. 

The public discontent, however, was growing too loud for the comfort of certain parliamentarians. Deciding to break ranks, they first suggested that the vote be delayed to allow for consideration of alternative candidates, and then when this strategy looked doomed, some publicly indicated hostility to Otero’s candidature. 

President Santos’ government, through Interior Minister Federico Renjifo urged senators within the coalition to ‘listen to the public’s reaction’, indicating that while it would not take an official line on the SS election, it would not be supporting Otero’s bid. Following this, Otero found that the Conservatives and the Liberals who had always in the past voted for him were this time declining to do so, that Cambio Radical, the Greens, PIN and the Polo were all against him. 

Left with no alternative, Otero announced to the nation on Thursday morning in short valedictory video that he was withdrawing his candidature.

The public and their masters
The relationship between congress and the public has changed – perhaps permanently. The ‘monkey’ clauses of the Justice Reform bill represented a point of departure, the moment when bubbling cynicism exploded in indignant rage. 

Colombians are now more alive to the actions of their governors. Had Otero sought election in a different climate it is difficult to see how he would not have won – the media interest would have been minimal, and the public gaze non-existent. Once he had morphed into an enemy of the public however, his position became untenable. 
The court of public opinion has judged Otero (and the rest of the political class) corrupt. Disapproval of Colombia’s congress is running at 69%. The erosion of public trust in public institutions should concern each and every elected politician. 

Signatures are being gathered to revoke the legislature, to kick out what is seen as a group unfit to govern. And following years of weak and uncritical coverage, the media too is beginning to perform the investigate role a participatory democracy demands of it. 

Those senators savvy enough to smell the danger have acted quickly, sacrificing Otero for the sake of the institution’s future. Despite weeks of lobbying the SS has been abandoned by colleagues. 

The nation shall shed no tears, nor shall those who believe the growing interest and power of citizen movements can only be healthy for Colombia’s democracy.

 Also published on redescolombia 
Category: Democracy
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Uribe turns Colombia’s political cold war caliente

When Uribe handed over to Santos

Álvaro Uribe parked his tanks on President Juan Manuel Santos’ lawn this Thursday.
At a special gathering of loyal followers in an exclusive club in the north of Bogota, Uribe announced the formation of the Puro Centro Democratico political movement – the platform from which he will fight to return Uribism to the presidential palace in 2014.
For months Uribe has attacked Santos from the bunker of his Twitter account, but over night the cold war turned hot; Uribism is now the official opposition in Colombia.
Over the next year Uribe will try to rip Santos’ coalition government apart. It is about to become very dirty; the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Neo-Uribismo?
Last month this website reported on the planned event to launch the ‘Front against Terrorism’ at El Nogal club. The event was billed as an homage to Fernando Londoño who survived a FARC-led assassination attempt in May. It had been suggested that the ‘Front’ would work more as a pressure group – against the Santos government – than a political platform to fight congressional and presidential elections. 
But the events of last two weeks presented Uribe with a golden opportunity, forcing him to change tack. In his worst moment in office Santos has seen his relationship with congressional coalition partners deteriorate dramatically, and public support dip sharply. Pouncing on this vulnerability, Uribe ditched the single-issue ‘Front’ and instead launched the more inclusive and sober sounding Puro Centro Democratico (PCD) – effectively a new political party.
As his adoring followers packed into the hall, Uribe rose to his fee to deliver an hour-long speech that the publication Semana called a ‘counter-attack’ against the current administration. The speech was electric with round after round fired at Santos. Uribe criticised the president for debasing the Democratic Security doctrine on which he was elected, for promoting drug legalisation, for appearing to negotiate peace with terrorists, for cosying up to dictatorial neighbours, Correa and Chavez, and for governing by clientilism.
As Uribe left the stage to rapturous applause, his crusade began in earnest. As Uribe cannot himself stand, the search for candidate to fight the presidential elections in 2014 must now begin.The electoral force of UribeTwo years have passed since Uribe left office and despite the scandals that have appeared to implicate members of his old administration, the ex-president still enjoys approval ratings in the 60s. Uribe is a powerful electoral figure. He is charismatic and polemical. Unsurprising then, that there are those who question whether Uribism can win without Uribe. The influential on-line publication, La Silla Vacia argues that ‘for Uribism, Uribe is irreplaceable’ 
So without Uribe as their candidate is the PCD doomed to failure? There are seven names in the frame – none would win an election were it held tomorrow.Who are they? Juan Lozano, President of the U Party, Francisco Santos, vice-president in Uribe’s government, ex-ministers Marta Lucia Ramirez and Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, former peace commissioner Luis Carlo Restrepo, current vice-president Angelino Garzon, and Fernando Lodono, the subject a FARC-led assassination attempt in May. 
Revista Posicion’s recent poll showed that Francisco Santos was the most likely to attract voters, with 16% support, closely followed by Juan Lozano on 12%. The voting intentions for the remaining 4 (Angelino Garzon was not included in the poll) registered 5% and below. Zuluaga is rumoured to be Uribe’s favoured choice, but a mere 3 per cent of those asked would vote for him. 
Uribe may have difficulty selecting a candidate, but he has time to build the profile of the chosen one. And although it is true that the political dynamic is different from two years ago, it is of course the case that President Santos was elected on the back of Uribe’s support.Uribe V Santos, it’s personal and it’s politicalPresident Santos was elected by the highest number of votes in history, around 9 million. He was the heir to Uribe, but he has governed as his own man. To Uribe and Uribistas, Santos is a traitor.For 18 months Uribe has been the most vocal and effective opposition to a Santos regime that controls over 90% of Congress. But despite this ill-feeling Santos himself has refused to criticise his old boss – ‘I won’t fight ex-President Alvaro Uribe’ is the mantra.Santos knows that the time has now come in which this position is virtually untenable and he must begin to fight back. This week we saw the start of a new strategy – to cast Uribe’s tirades as unpatriotic, damaging to the nation. In an interview with Caracol Television, Santos revealed that analysis of the news output in 2012 showed that Alvaro Uribe himself was the source of 40% of the negative stories about Colombia. Colombians are acutely sensitive about how they are perceived by the world. Santos was telling his compatriots that Uribe is second only to the FARC in threatening this image. In a similar move, Santos, hours before the Uribistas met in El Nogal, delivered a speech in which he warned against the folly of those who ‘play politics with terrorism’ and the ‘blood of our soldiers’.Although Santos’ tactics to oppose Uribe are likely to be subtle, their effectiveness is unlikely to be in doubt. Santos is a calm statesman, a polar opposite to the polemicist Uribe – he must continue to play this card.Uribe can afford to play a dirtier game than Santos.

Uribe’s next move is to start to lobby to steel away from Santos’ coalition those Congressman still loyal to the ex-president. Many in the U Party and the Conservative Party are more Uribista than Santista, but it is unclear how many will want to give up the trappings of power. Should relations with Congress continue to deteriorate, however, and were the Santos coalition to start to hemorrhage it would be doubly grave for the president – not only would he find his re-election under threat, but his ability to govern in what remains of his first term would also be significantly reduced.

Santos has repeatedly said that he will wait until next year to announce whether he will run for re-election. This website believes that it is virtually certain that he will. The coalition of Uribistas is ready for war, and will throw everything they have at him.

Category: Political Parties