Colombia President Juan Manuel Santos will leave us waiting until June to confirm his intention to run for re-election in 2014 it was revealed yesterday.
In a Colmundo Radio interview the president set the summer date hoping to end the constant speculation that had surrounded the timing of his announcement. Theoretically the president had until November to say either way, but Santos has chosen to bring this forward to avoid a possible clash with the scheduled announcement of the end of peace talks with the FARC.
The peace talks, currently underway in Havana, are due to conclude not before the autumn and Santos’ move is designed to decouple his bid to remain in the Casa de Nariño Presidential Palace from the negotiations with the terrorist group.
The reality is of course that whether the president likes it or not, his political future is inextricably linked to the process in the Cuban capital. Many believe that the only thing that stands between the president and a second term is a possibly disastrous conclusion to the talks.
Few expect them to break down, but even if they do, Santos will be able to manage his way out of all but the most unpredictable of situations. Should the FARC break ranks and launch a series of brutal attacks or should they take out a leading politicians while talks are underway, for example, Santos might struggle to avoid severe castigation at the polls. But otherwise he will not be seriously untroubled. Santos must control the talks even if that means bringing them to a premature end if the FARC appear not to be playing ball.
So why is the election so much within the gift of the president?
In a recent interview, Green Party Senator John Sudarsky told Colombia Politics that Santos has the election all but wrapped up because of the institutional power and patronage available to the president’s office.
Parliamentarians have danced to Santos’ tune since August 2010 – with over 90% of congress aligned to the coalition administration – and the majority are expected to stay on the president’s ticket, returning him large swathes of the country, and giving him the necessary votes to cancel out the efforts of a challenger.
To Sudarsky, and to many others, Colombia’s democracy is clientelist and bureaucratic meaning power remains in the hands of he who already has it.
But it’s also true that Santos’ voter popularity remains relatively high, despite a difficult year in office. Before 2012 began Santos’ approval ratings were sitting pretty, between 70 and 80%.
The numbers who view his administration positively are now hovering around half of the electorate. Yet despite the alarmist calls from many within the Colombian media, it is difficult to conclude that this figure is entirely calamitous for a president about to embark on his third year in office.
And if you were worried about Santos’ popularity, well 2013 will be year where the administration attempts to point to “delivery” to the positive effect the new laws passed in the period 2010-12 are having on the society.
Expect this year and next to read like a long list of new houses build, record employment numbers, record numbers lifted out of poverty, land returned to victims, murder rates lowered, economic growth.
Santos may even borrow the line from his old friend former British Prime Minister Tony Blair who once famously campaigned on the slogan, “Lots done, lots still to do”.
Will support creep up? Possibly so. Where Santos ends up in 2014 and what sort of congress he has to work with will depend on how well the results are communicated and how much the electorate feels they are benefitting from them.