Friday, 29 June 2012

A Colombian revolution? Heads roll as nation turns on political class

And justice for all?
In the face of overwhelming public opposition Juan Manuel Santos' government was this week forced to ditch one of its most prized pieces of legislative reform. Reaction to the Justice Reform bill has caused a constitutional crisis threatening to take the government, the congress and the political class with it. 

The bill passed by congress early last week was supposed to represent the culmination of two years of hard legislative graft; the government's centrepiece reform of this congressional session. At the 11th hour, however, a committee of congressmen hijacked the reforms, introducing clauses that would have generated chaos in Colombia's justice system. 

The most controversial of these clauses would have stripped the Supreme Court's power to investigate the alleged crimes of legislators, in effect delivering Colombia's top politicians virtual impunity: Those already in jail, for example the 44 congressmen convicted of ties with the Paramilitaries, would be released, and those legislators currently on trail - including the 100 or so cases that the Supreme Court has pending - would walk free, without further investigation. 

Citizens armed with 140 Twitter characters and the airwaves of the traditional media, whipped up a fury  that shook the presidential palace. Within hours of receiving the bill for rubber stamping, President Santos blocked its progression. 

No president had before refused to sign-off congress approved constitutional amendments.

Public disgust at the reforms has led to a double digit dip in support for Santos, it has ended (at least temporarily) the political career of the Justice Minister, Juan Carlos Esguerra, and has put the country's legislators on notice. Signatures are being collected for a referendum not only on the Colombian justice system, but also on whether to dissolve the congress. 

Colombia's 'internet indignados' thirst for political blood appears likely only to be satiated by an impeachment of the entire political class. 

A week is a long time... 

Last Wednesday President Santos received the final version of the Justice Reform bill. Following the conclusion of the final debate on the bill - during what is called the 'conciliation' period (where differences between the text approved in the 'House of Representatives' and the Senate are ironed out) - a group of congressmen appended a series of 'monkey' clauses as they are called in Colombia. 

The clauses were agreed behind closed doors - without the presence of the government - and emasculate the judiciary, transferring powers from the courts to the politicians direct. This is a violation of the principles of the Constitution of 1991.

Once the detail of these monkey clauses became public, the nation reacted with instant and overwhelming indignation. Within moments, the Twitter hastag #SeMueveLaContraReforma announcing the formation of a citizens army to oppose the reform was trending. Radio talk-shows were soon dominated not by the usual gossip but instead by the voices of the despairing masses. The fury of the nation had been ignited. 

By early afternoon it had become clear in the Casa de Narino that the bill now posed a direct threat to the government's authority, and its popular support. 

Santos feared the hostility of the public would not only direct itself against his government, but could also lead to the formation of a bona fide political movement. Santos recalled the events of the autumn of last year when the country's universities ground to a halt as students protested against Santos' education reform, a bill that eventually Santos was forced to ditch. 

Forced to act, Santos interrupted the television schedules to speak directly to the nation. He told us he was returning the bill to congress - he was refusing to rubber stamp it, as is his constitutional duty says he must. 

A constitutional muddle

But constitutional experts and opposition politicians reminded the country that the president has no power of veto on congress approved changes to the constitution. In these circumstances the executive is powerless to refuse the will of legislature. 

With Santos' will expressed but uncertainty over what possible steps were available to the government the  flames of discontent began to lick at the presidential palace. 

The #SeMueveLaContraReforma group returned to Twitter to promote the idea of a referendum. The group promised a popular vote on remaking the justice system and also on the dissolution of the congress. The movement was joined by Polo Democrat politicians and Angela Robledo of the Green Party. 

The crisis appeared to engulf the political class. The careers of some of the country's leading politicians were being torn apart at the seams as the media sought to lay blame. Justice Minister, Juan Carlos Esguerra decided to resign arguing that he was not to blame but that he would 'assume political responsibility' for the imbroglio.

With no obvious way out of the constitutional stand-off appearing available, the danger to the Santos administration was growing by the minute. The government began to exert pressure on the congress to sit on the document - preventing it from being printed and passing onto the statute books. Juan Manuel Corzo -  President of the Senate - appeared to consent to this. 

Talk grew, however, that congress' original assent was enough for the legislative provisions to be applied as law. The prospect of the cell doors unlocking to release convicted politicians back onto the streets, free to stand for election again, became very real. 

Santos then received a letter from Simon Gaviria, Director of the Liberal Party and President of congress' lower house in which the Liberal Party promised to - should Santos convene a series of emergence sessions of congress - vote down the entire bill (not just the monkey clauses), preventing its passage.

Santos duly announced that he was convening two special sessions of congress for Wednesday and Thursday and corralled his coalition troops to vote to bury the bill. 

Yesterday, after 12 hours of discussion, 107 representatives of the lower house, and 73 senators supported the government's initiative to kill the bill.

The political scars of the bloodless 'revolution'

Last year President Santos enjoyed approval ratings in the 80%s. A poll taken today shows that less than half the nation continues to approve of the president. 

Santos is said also to have lost significant political capital. Members of his coalition government are angry at being asked to vote down a reform of which days before they had been whipped to vote in favour of. 

Senator Luis Fernando Duque accused the government of treating them 'like rats, like criminals'. Senator While Roy Barreras, the in-coming Senate President complained at the break down in communication between the National Unity coalition and the executive - 'we only hear about the government's political decisions through the press', he said.

An eventual break-up - or restructuring - of Santos' National Unity coalition, as a result of this episode, has even been hinted at. Senator Efrain Cepeda, President of the Conservative Party (a key group within the coalition) warned 'we remain in the National Unity (coalition), but it's quite another thing how the relations will be' once congress reconvenes after the holiday period. 

All this means that questions about how Santos will be able to drive through future reforms will now be raised with increasing frequency. Will he be able to rely on the support of congress without making significant concessions, for example? 

We are still two years away from the election, but the chess pieces are starting to move. Certain commentators question whether this week has thrown Santos' chances of re-election. 

For all the talk of the threat to Santos, however, it remains true that the president saw the danger once the public began to revolt. Without Santos' intervention the entire political class would be making its way onto the endangered species list. 

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