Unanimously elected by the national directorate of the Colombian Conservative Party, Senator Efrain Cepeda this month became the president of a political force that once ruled the country but today is approaching its nadir.
The Conservatives were drubbed in the elections of 30 October. Former (Conservative) President of Colombia, Andres Pastrana labelled the defeat 'an historic disaster...one of the worst results in history'.
He was right. The Conservatives lost over 1000 councillors, and were reduced to just one governorship. Even more humiliating is the case of the Conservative candidate in the capital city, Bogota, who was forced to withdraw from the race over a month before votes were cast as polls showed less than 0.5% of the electorate were supporting him.
The Conservatives remain a major force in Congress, and, by virtue of their membership of the coalition government, they have ministers of state. But the party is no longer one of natural government as it once professed it to be.
Worse still, the Santos government appears to be ignoring Conservative policies opting instead to deliver a suspiciously Liberal looking agenda. Santos is certainly much less in tune with Conservatives than was his predecessor Alvaro Uribe. A fact that has led in recent months to a public falling out between outgoing Conservative Party President Jose Dario Salazar, and Santos.
Amid the wreckage of this waning Conservative influence, Efrain Cepeda takes hold of the party reins promising to revive the collective and to take the party in a different direction. His challenge is great, and the change he must effect is drastic.
Cepeda would do well to examine closely the model adopted by the British Conservatives (or Tories) who, after enduring over a decade in the wilderness, swept to power in 2010. The Tories under (now) Prime Minister David Cameron moved to the centre, became socially inclusive, focused on policies to reduce poverty and help save the environment and changed the way they spoke to the electorate - replacing their moralising with a more compassionate, caring tone. Colombian Conservatives in recent years have moved to the right, opposed measures for social inclusion, and moralised about gay rights and abortion. Like the Tories before 'the change' they are a party that has appeared to enjoy talking to itself, appealing to its core vote rather than reaching out to the 45% of the nation that lives below the poverty line. This trend must be reversed.
Senator Cepeda is considered a moderate Conservative, so the British Conservatives model should appeal. If Cepeda is to halt what looks like the slow death of Conservative Colombia, he needs urgently to set about marching the rest of his party to the moderate centre.
Annus horribilis for Salazar's social conservatism
Efrain Cepeda takes over the leadership of the party from Jose Dario Salazar, an arch-Uribista on the social conservative right wing of the party.
Salazar leaves the party facing a perfect storm of falling public support, a loss of influence at the heart of government, and the threat of civil war in the ranks.
The Conservatives are within, but have been at odds with, President Juan Manuel Santos' coalition government. Salazar has expressed frustration at Santos' handling of public security and feels detached from the liberal agenda pursued by the administration; one which differs wildly to the Uribista world view to which Salazar subscribes.
What's more, the Conservatives are not only out of step with the government, they also appear to be cast adrift from public opinion. If we look at the efforts to shore up the Conservative vote ahead of the October 30 elections we can see that they failed, and dramatically so. Why? Put simply, the Conservatives are fighting an ideological battle routed in the past.
Coming into the elections the Conservative agenda looked to be defined by ´dog-whistle´ politics. Witness two of the party's key policy decisions in recent months. The first - the attempt to ban abortion outright; that's even in cases where the mother has been raped or where her life is threatened. The second - the campaign to resist movements to sanction civil partnerships. Unsurprisingly, the public overwhelmingly turned up its collective nose to these proposals when polls opened. They were overly moralistic in tone, and they avoided the fundamental changes the nation needs not only to tackle poverty but also to reduce corruption.
Worse still, amid this dramatic dip in public support the collective has also endured open warfare within the party. Former president and torch bearer of the centre right of the party, Andres Pastrana, has taken his sword both to Salazar's leadership and the direction in which he has taken the party. In September this website reported on this clash revealing how the movement within the party to bring back Pastrana as head of the Conservatives was gaining momentum. Pastrana is the most recent Conservative President of the Republic - he is a galvanizing but also dividing figure. For Pastranistas he represents a return to the tradition of winning - a party pre-Alvaro Uribe. Pastrana has appeared in the Conservatives´ hour of need to offer them an alternative.
The future under Cepeda, what he has promised to do, and what he must do
Those viying for Pastrana's return have all but got what they wanted. Pastrana is Cepeda's political mentor, and the latter and will now draw on the support of the Pastranistas including leading ministers Juan Carlos Echeverry and Juan Camilo Restrepo to bring back a sense of harmony and loyality within the ranks.
Cepeda's most pressing challenge is not to reunite the Conservative Party, however, but to reunite the public with a party with whom it has fallen out of love. To do so, Cepeda should look to Conservative movements in other countries, not least the example of the UK Tories. The UK Tories might still not be loved by large sections of the British public but they have re-found their voice and have re-taken power - when five years ago many commentators had written them off, predicting their death as a political force.
The Tories knew that Conservative movements are best when they talk of equality of opportunity, of a meritocracy, of reducing poverty through employment, and of liberty. And the corollary, that Conservative movements are at their worst when they seek moral control and represent the interests only of the governing elite. Senator Cepeda must take heed and start to mould policies and construct a narrative around these themes.
In this context, Senator Cepeda's opening remarks on assuming control of the party are promising - up to a point. Under his leadership the Conservative agenda will focus on bringing about equality of opportunity through the 'the fight against poverty' and 'the fight against inequality', and it will also target the corruption of the governing classes. In other words it will encourage the Conservatives to discuss the real change the country needs. In so doing the party will start to talk the language of the millions of Colombians for whom finding work is a greater issue than the moral health of the nation.
The less good, but unsurprising, news is that Cepeda has also promised that the party will remain the 'pioneer in the defence of the right to life' and that this will remain a key 'flag' to which the troops will march. Bluntly this means the modernisation of the social policy platform is to be kicked into the long grass.
How much Cepeda can and how much he wants to change the party is uncertain, but to be fair to him it would be virtually impossible for him to ditch social conservatism - for the time being. Cepeda´s task will be to prevent the issue from dominating the space in which the Conservatives contribute to the political debate of the nation.
So how could the Colombian Conservatives compar to the the British Tories?
The Tories left office appearing to be corrupt and to stand for the vested interests of the rich. The Colombian Conservatives find themselves in a similiar position. The Tories shed this image focusing on the poor, and on an purging those associated with corruption. The Colombian Conservatives must do the same.
The British Tories dropped their social Conservatism and supported same-sex civil partnerships (they are now proposing to elevate same-sex unions to the same status a marriage). Colombia is a much more conservative country than the UK - Cepeda´s party will not move to the centre on this, but it must refocus away.
The Colombian Conservatives are seen as thoroughly unmodern - their debacle in liberal Bogota the testament. The Tories were also seen as stuffy and out of touch, but they read the winds of change - their adoption of pro-environment policies sending the strongest signal of this change. The Colombian Conservatives must look for ways of tapping into the zeitgeist - it needn´t be the environment, but they must choose an issue that surprises and challenges Colombians to view the party in a new light. In short they must show that they have changed.
The British Tories brought together a policy framework that moved them to the centre - it was pragmatic but also ideological in its championing of the conservative principle of freedom. Senator Cepeda must set about constructing a similar platform - one that challenges, unites and speaks to the nation. The fight against poverty should be the overarching theme - it would allow the party to present a package of reforms based on the principles of equality of opportunity and increased employment. If the Conservatives want to moralise then they should do so against poverty.
Presidential Elections 2014
Senator Cepeda will lead the party into 2014, a year of presidential elections. In the 2010 presidential elections Conservative Noemi Sanin fared badly coming a distant fifth with only 6% of the vote. She never really stood a chance as the party split, with many throwing their weight behind eventual winner (but not Conservative Party member) Juan Manuel Santos. Divided parties lose elections. Cepeda must unite his party, but he must unite it on a platform that appeals to the nation as a whole. Colombian politics are vastly different to those in the UK, but the rulebook for succesful conservatism is clear and Cepeda must follow it closely.