Sunday, 4 September 2011

Turbulent times for Colombian Conservatives?

What will the Conservative Party do next?




Two days ago I reported on ex-president Andres Pastrana's efforts to become the next president of the Conservative party. Since then current President, Jose Dario Salazar, has made it clear that in order to do so, Pastrana would have to wait and submit himself to the Conservative electorate in 2012. But Pastrana's allies appear determined to get him in post in November, following the local and regional elections.








For Salazar the constitution of the Conservative party prevents Pastrana's planned return. Pastrana's allies must then decide their next course of action. Will support for Pastrana be sufficient to force a change to the constitution?

First the Pastranistas will have to call an extra-ordinary congressional meeting to advance their proposal - from there it will be a question of politics and will.

Although it's unclear how this story will develop, it does appear that the Conservatives are at something of a crossroads. Particularly so in the post-Uribe, Santos era.

The Conservatives have been seen as a largely Urbisita party. They did not field a candidate in 2006, instead choosing to support President Uribe's re-election bid. Most recently there has been evidence of an internal struggle between the wing still loyal to Uribe and the 'post-Uribistas'. Jose Dario Salazar is considered a Uribista. A party led by Pastrana - who as noted in my earlier post has been highly critical of Uribe - would appear to represent a victory for those looking to take the Conservative party in a different direction.

All this is in the context of a mixed 18 months for the party. Although they remain members of President Santos' coalition, there has been disquiet at the government's direction of travel. Many appear to argue that Santos has been less Conservative and more Liberal than they were promised. Some have questioned the return they have received for being part of the coalition.

There has also been some cause for concern in terms of public support for the party. The Conservatives are the second largest group in both houses of Congress (Representatives and Senate). However, they fared badly in the presidential elections last year. Candidate Noemi Sanin came a distant fifth with only 6 per cent of the vote.

All eyes will be on the local and regional elections in October, and on what Pastrana's allies do next.