#President Santos

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Cometh the hour, cometh Germán

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Is German Vargas Lleras about to emerge from the shadow of President Juan Manuel Santos and sweep to victory in next year`s election?

On 30 May 2010, German Vargas Lleras won a million and a half votes in the first round of Colombia`s presidential election.

The Cambio Radical hopeful had come a surprise third, beating candidates from Colombia`s big two traditional parties; Conservatives and Liberals.  The next day, I posted on Facebook, long before I had set up Colombia Politics, “German Vargas Lleras, 2014-2018”, in an allusion to the possible outcome of the next election.

Six and a bit months to go, and this is still a real possibility. Here`s why:

For months Vargas Lleras had led in the polls. In May he was even more popular than Alvaro Uribe, who is constitutionally prohibited from running, but who is now head and shoulders clear of all other politicians in Colombia.

If the election were held tomorrow, Vargas Lleras would beat not only President Santos, but also Uribe`s choice, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, and the left-wing alternatives of Clara Lopez and Antonio Navarro Wolff.

Vargas has dreamt of the top job since he was in short trousers. He has dedicated his life to the ascent of the greasy pole, for decades working his magic in corridors of power. Most recently he has been for three years straight, President Santos` “ministro estrella” or “star minister”.

In the first years of the Santos administration, Vargas pulled the strings for his boss in congress, setting the parliamentary agenda and whipping the National Unity coalition into shape. Latterly he has donned a hard hat to dish out free houses for the poor.

Vargas has been so good, so loyal and indispensible to President Santos, that the commander in chief has placed him in charge of the Santos re-election campaign.

Santos has tied his man so tightly to the ship that even if it sinks he will have no life boat. Or at least that is what Santos hopes. Earlier this year, the president set up Buen Gobierno, a form of think-tank-cum-campaign-headquarters, and swiftly dispatched his right-hand man to be its boss.

Impossible, Santos calculates, for the man leading the charge to extend the administration into a second term, to cut loose and go it alone.

But this is Colombia,  and politics here can often seem as scrupulous as the rotten boroughs of early 1800s England.

Rumours circulate that Vargas Lleras is pouring over the endless polling data that put him top; he faces a genuine crossroads moment.

President Santos has a week to announce whether he will run for re-election. If he decides to pass the buck – something virtually no one is predicting – Vargas will almost certainly inherit the crown. But even if Santos does run, Vargas could yet emerge.

Here are three or many scenarios that could encourage Vargas to pull the trigger.

What if Santos does not recover in the polls? At the moment the president is hugely unpopular and less than a third of Colombians will vote for him. In the first round of voting the spoilt ballots would beat the incumbent. If this does not change quickly, Santos is doomed.

What if the peace process with the FARC guerrillas goes awry? Could Santos really be re-elected if the talks collapse.

What happens if a new wave of protests – like those that brought the nation to a standstill in August – flares up? Coffee farmers and agriculture workers continue to complain of government broken promises, and it is not difficult to see how these or those against health reforms currently going through congress, would take to the streets again. Santos has shown himself incapable of handling such crises, can he really survive more public unrest?

Frankly, such is the antipathy, that it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Colombians decide enough is enough, that Santos whatever the cost, should not be allowed four more years.

So come January once the Christmas festivities are out of the way and Santos has not improved in the polls. Or come March when congressional elections show Santos supporting parties have tanked.

What better time for Vargas Lleras to step forward and offer Colombians a bit of charismatic leadership?

Cometh the hour.

Read our political biography of German Vargas Lleras.

Category: Comment, Elections
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President Santos to win 2014 election

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos will be re-elected in 2014 according to nationwide poll released tomorrow.

Despite an approval rate as low as 29 per cent, Santos` candidature appears unstoppable as Colombians show even less faith in his likely opponents, right-winger Oscar Ivan Zuluaga and leftie Clara Lopez. Read more…

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Are Colombia’s voters insane?

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Is Colombia doomed continually to repeat the errors of her past?

Albert Einstein argues insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. The recent wave of protests against neoliberal agricultural and healthcare policy carried out by medicine students and farmers, and supported by the general population, certainly reflect widespread clamor for “different results” regarding the way Colombia is being governed. Paradoxically, the same people who protest and demand “different results” seem intent on voting for the same people and parties that got us into this mess.

Any Colombian intent on voting for the likes of Partido de la U, Uribe Centro Democrático, Partido Liberal, Partido Conservador, Cambio Radical, PIN and the likes of these pro-global capitalism, clientelist and nepotist parties, who somehow expects a better becoming for Colombia because of this electoral choice, should be sent to the psychiatrist – according to Einstein, of course. The progressive concentration of resources and power which the members of these parties have shamelessly, and in a corrupt manner, assured themselves, supplemented by their alignment with global-capitalism, have left Colombia in its actual state of extreme inequality, crisis and general nonconformity.  Paradoxically, somehow, people still consider these parties as viable options.

Are Colombians who vote for these parties truly insane? Perhaps, but before we pass sentence on those citizens who continuously vote for the same corrupt idiots and yet complain about the shameful state of our country, we should revise the concept of the ruling ideology in our times. According to philosopher Slavoj Zizek, ideology today works through the following mental exercise; “(“I know very well…”) and the subject of the enunciation (“…nevertheless I act as if I didn’t”)”.

A theoretical example of today’s ruling ideology would be “I know very well that all ethnic cultures are equal in value, yet, nevertheless, I will act as if mine is superior”. A latent, everyday example of today’s ruling ideology in Colombia is “I know very well that parties like Partido de la U, Uribe Centro Democrático, Partido Liberal, Partido Conservador, Cambio Radical, PIN have governed Colombia is the worst possible manner only catering to their member’s personal interests at the expense of the general population, yet, nevertheless, I will act as if my vote for these parties implies a better future.” This is ideology at its purest.

In other words, those Colombians who choose to vote for the before mentioned parties might not be insane, but the ideology which they practice certainly leads them to vote as if they were truly, genuinely insane. Of course, this comes as no surprise, the only way in which the sort of people who govern us can reach the posts they reach through popular vote (despite evident and brave exceptions of good politicians) is by being elected through the ideology of insanity.

Sadly, the ideology of insanity works in two directions. Not only does it perpetuate bad politicians in power, it also might keep good politicians from reaching power. Here, Antonio Navarro Wolff comes to mind. Even though Navarro-Wolff was declared as the best mayor in Colombia (over Antanas Mockus) while he was Mayor of Pasto, due to his outstanding results, and even though he was declared as the best Governor in the country when he governed Nariño, for achieving equally impressive policy outcomes, a large number of people immediately discard him as a presidential option.

The reason is none other than he is a leftist. Again ideology is clear, the ideological paradox I know very well that because of his leftist ideals Navarro has been a successful governor and mayor, nevertheless, I act as if left-leaning individuals were incapable of governing is clearly at work in many of Navarro´s detractors, before he has even presented his presidential proposal, or even before it is certain that he will be running for the presidency.

The ideology of insanity is certainly a worrying phenomenon, despite its long lasting historic tradition in Colombia. Today, ignorance and the mass media uphold this ideology. Of course, there are also psychoanalytic factors in each ideologized individual that hunger for such ideology.

Most nations in the continent have surpassed their ideological limitations and have been able to elect leaders from new political and social sectors which have, in many cases, delivered wonderful results while improving the quality of life of their citizens. With the upcoming electoral year in 2014, there is no question that Colombia can only guarantee a better becoming by getting rid of its ideology of insanity. Optimism is scarce however, despite all the current upheaval and discontent, ideology is hardly ever defeated by facts.

Category: Comment
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Santos and the re-election no one wants

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Colombia`s Presidential election race is wide open say nationwide polls.

President Santos`chances of holding on to power next May appear to be dwindling as confidence in his administration falls to a record low and fewer than 1 in 5 Colombians promise to vote for his re-election. Read more…

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Colombia´s FARC peace talks on rocks? Don´t panic yet

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Talk that peace negotiations between the Colombian government and FARC guerrillas are doomed is premature.

Sure, Colombia’s largest guerrilla group are doing their best to convince us they are not serious about the peace process. This week, the terrorist organization murdered 15 soldiers in an ambush close to the Venezuelan border, and yesterday they promised to send reinforcements, troops and arms to the front line of the protests in troubled Catatumbo, Norte de Santander.

Yes, the FARC are making it easy for former president Alvaro Uribe´s Democratic Centre to argue the talks are a farce, all smoke and mirrors. Would-be presidential candidate Francisco “Pacho” Santos, has used the FARC´s promise to fight in Catatumbo as a pretext to call for a suspension of the discussions. He argues the guerrillas have no intention of signing a peace accord, that they are having us on, and the plug should be pulled.

And ok, I accept it is hardly a source of good cheer that nine months from the start of the talks, we’re limping along with agreement reached on just one of the five points on the agenda.

But despite all this, I don’t accept the premise that we might as well pack up and go home. The course of lasting peace never did run smooth, and in a conflict as bloody and interminable as Colombia’s, finding a way out is a devil’s job.

Last night I took to the television studios to argue against the grain, to put the case that perversely, quite apart from being evidence that the peace talks were a dead duck, the FARC´s recent actions, the attacks and the full frontal with the government, could in fact be real evidence of their committment to the talks.

I’m quite aware it sounds bold, but if we look at the dynamics of any negotiation we can start to see where I’m coming from.

Negotiations are a power struggle where each actor must seek to strengthen his hand at the table.

Remember, we were told the FARC arrived in Havana totally demoralised, exhausted, defeated…on its last legs. Meanwhile, the government bright‐eyed and bushy‐tailed talked victoriously of signing an agreement within months.

Well, that was sadly not true – the FARC had not been defeated. They still have thousands in their ranks, and have an almost endless supply of youngsters to ‘forcibly recruit’ – or kidnap, if the euphemism isn’t to your taste. Not to mention the oodles of dosh that comes their way through narco trading.

Many Colombians, quite rightly given what the government had told them, did not really want a negotiated peace process, what they wanted was a rendition. Tired of close on 50 years of pointless conflict, Colombians wanted the FARC to lay down their arms and give up the fight. This was never going to happen.

So if the FARC are not about to capitulate, it shouldn´t surprise us if they use all the tricks available to secure an agreement that works best for them. That folks, is the nature of negotiation.

I see the events of recent days in this context, as evidence not that the FARC are throwing in the towel on the talks, but that they are exploiting external forces to improve their position in Havana.  The FARC want us to believe that, as they are very much alive and kicking, we are going to have to pay a higher price for peace than once we bargained for.

So, however distasteful it might be, it is logical – not illogical as many suggest – that the FARC should pursue their peace goals in Havana by warring at home.

Unfortunately, the FARC are also able to take advantage of a struggling government. Santos ‘ team has failed to end the protests in Catatumbo and the president must now face a month of unrest as miners, coffee farmers, milk farmers, rice farmers, and truck drivers join forces to bring the country to a standstill.

By November, the president must announce whether he will run for re-election next year. By September he might have already lost the race to a nationwide rural uprising.

The FARC scent blood.

I also believe the FARC are not just preparing their hand at the table, they are also planning for what happens after the agreement is signed – another clue that they are serious about these talks.

It looks to me as though the FARC are massing their political troops, projecting forward to a time when they´ll fight at the ballot box, not on the battle field.

Look for a minute at the groups the FARC are proposing to help in Catatumbo. They are peasant farmers, those virtually abandoned by the state over decades. The FARC have always claimed to stand up for and represent “el pueblo”, the people – the lowly, but most of all, the rural. It does not take a genius to see they will seek to mobilise these groups when elections swing into view. And yes, the terrain is being prepared with Piedad Cordoba´s Patriotic March.

What luck for the FARC.

The election message has been handed to them on a plate – “Colombia’s rural poor is in open rebellion against the urban elite of Santos’ oligarchical government “. It´s “us” against “them”.

Maybe I am over optimistic but I hope I sense a hint of a sign the FARC could make a transition from the “people ‘s army” to the “people’s party”. Yes, I know they are nothing of the sort, but this is their world view, not mine.

The FARC top team are no fools, they know how to play the game, and they know how to squeeze as much out of their position as possible.

I might be wrong, these peace talks may yet end in acrimomy. But there is no reason yet to panic.

Negotiating peace while war rages is far from ideal, but what is the alternative?

Pack up? Go home? No chance. Keep going President Santos, we all want to live that dream of a Colombia in peace.

This article was written by the editor for Colombia Reports.

Category: Comment, Peace talks
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80% label Colombia´s politicians “corrupt”

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Colombians say corruption is worsening in a poll released today by anti-corruption NGO Transparency International, with politicians condemned as the worst culprits.

In a damning indictment on the way the country is run, 80 per cent of Colombians believe both the congress and the nation´s political parties have their snouts in the trough.

Faith in public institutions – across the board – is plummeting, with nearly half of those asked claiming that overall levels of corruption had increased significantly.

Nearly two thirds of Colombians believe the judiciary is engaged in improper practices, while 70 per cent right off the chicanery of government officials.

No high-profile public body escapes unscathed. The police, the military, and Colombia´s healthcare providers have lost the trust of over 50 per cent of the country.

What is the government doing to fix the problem?

President Santos began his period in office promising to stamp out the corrupt practices that have long put a break on the country´s progress. He signed off a series of laws designed to aid transparency and bring to justice those caught stealing from the public purse.

Despite this, Colombians remain highly sceptical of their representatives nearly half of whom in the 2006 to 2010 congress were investigated for their ties to paramilitaries, and 10% of whom in this parliament have been impeached.

And Transparency International´s March 2013 report also sees very little to cheer in Santos´reforms.

The new institutional reforms promoted by the government of President Santos—the new Anti-corruption Act of 2011, and the creation of a new Anti-corruption office in the Presidency—have not contributed to curbing corruption. To the contrary, in Transparency International´s 2012 Corruption Perception Index, the country received the worse score in ten years, going from 57 in 2002 to 94 in 2012.

Corruption in Colombia is not just the responsibility of those in power, however. 79% of Colombians believe they can oil the machine by bribing officials, and nearly a third admitted someone in their family had greased the palm of a policeman.

So should we worry about this, after all isn´t it just a poll?

Corruption is perceived to be getting worse in many countries, of course. Let us be honest; when asked, who really replies that they believe their politicians are getting cleaner, and more transparent? So perhaps we shouldn´t be too dismayed?

This might be true, but Colombia Politics believe that to ignore these figures as part of the flotsam and jetsam of modern life would be a mistake.

Ok, perceptions of corruption might be getting worse in Europe and elsewhere, but Colombia already starts from an unflattering position. She ranked alongside Mongolia and India in last year´s Transparency International corruption index.

That things are getting worse should sound alarm bells in the presidential palace. Juan Manuel Santos has staked much of his reputation on pulling the nation up by its bootstraps, forcing it to eat at the table with the big boys. He wants Colombia to be seen as a member of an emerging elite.

But so long as there is a perceived breakdown in the social contract between the people and their representatives, development will be stunted. Former presidential candidate and now Antioquia Governor, Sergio Fajardo famously said that corruption was the number one problem in Colombia.

Over the past weeks we have seen Brazilians take to the streets in their millions to force their government to act to root out corruption. Santos must fear that Colombians too will soon conclude enough is enough.

 

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Land reform a sore issue in peace talks

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Verbal shots were fired between the Colombian Government and the FARC over the key issue of land reform during the peace talks in the past week.

The exchange began with President Santos stating he is “confiscating the FARC of their ill-gotten land”, which amount to 500,000 hectares in the south of the country, and that he will return the land to the peasants who “deserved” it. He branded former FARC leader Mono Jojoy – now deceased – as “one of the great landowners” who had “stripped the state”.

FARC leader Ivan Marquez said he hoped the government would not “kick the table” and attributed Santos’ recent statement as driven by “electoral whims” and his desire to rebound in the polls.

Indeed, the President’s ratings have taken a hit in the past month, where a Gallup Colombia poll found 47% of its respondents viewing the President unfavourably, up from a 39% in December. What is more, another poll by the same organisation found that fewer people support the peace talks continuing until a resolution is met  than did two months ago, with more now supporting the idea of defeating the guerrillas “militarily”.

It suggests that the Colombian people are growing impatient with the progress of the talks, the details of which have seldom been made public but for a few ad hoc press briefings by either side, and the President himself is taking the hit for this through a fall in support.

The FARC of course has no such worries of democratic accountability, and they sidestepped responding directly to the accusations made by Santos. In recent days they have submitted over 40 proposals which they believe will “streamline” the talks.

Key among these is the creation of a commission to investigate and verify the countless number of reports and testimonies of land dispossession during the armed conflict, which they attribute to “corporations, large landowners, government officials and businessman”.

The talks are set to take a recess at the end of the week.

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President Santos set to announce re-election bid in summer

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Colombia President Juan Manuel Santos will leave us waiting until June to confirm his intention to run for re-election in 2014 it was revealed yesterday.

In a Colmundo Radio interview the president set the summer date hoping to end the constant speculation that had surrounded the timing of his announcement. Theoretically the president had until November to say either way, but Santos has chosen to bring this forward to avoid a possible clash with the scheduled announcement of the end of peace talks with the FARC.

The peace talks, currently underway in Havana, are due to conclude not before the autumn and Santos’ move is designed to decouple his bid to remain in the Casa de Nariño Presidential Palace from the negotiations with the terrorist group.

The reality is of course that whether the president likes it or not, his political future is inextricably linked to the process in the Cuban capital. Many believe that the only thing that stands between the president and a second term is a possibly disastrous conclusion to the talks.

Few expect them to break down, but even if they do, Santos will be able to manage his way out of all but the most unpredictable of situations. Should the FARC break ranks and launch a series of brutal attacks or should they take out a leading politicians while talks are underway, for example, Santos might struggle to avoid severe castigation at the polls. But otherwise he will not be seriously untroubled. Santos must control the talks even if that means bringing them to a premature end if the FARC appear not to be playing ball.

So why is the election so much within the gift of the president?

In a recent interview, Green Party Senator John Sudarsky told Colombia Politics that Santos has the election all but wrapped up because of the institutional power and patronage available to the president’s office.

Parliamentarians have danced to Santos’ tune since August 2010 – with over 90% of congress aligned to the coalition administration – and the majority are expected to stay on the president’s ticket, returning him large swathes of the country, and giving him the necessary votes to cancel out the efforts of a challenger.

To Sudarsky, and to many others, Colombia’s democracy is clientelist and bureaucratic meaning power remains in the hands of he who already has it.

But it’s also true that Santos’ voter popularity remains relatively high, despite a difficult year in office. Before 2012 began Santos’ approval ratings were sitting pretty, between 70 and 80%.

The numbers who view his administration positively are now hovering around half of the electorate. Yet despite the alarmist calls from many within the Colombian media, it is difficult to conclude that this figure is entirely calamitous for a president about to embark on his third year in office.

And if you were worried about Santos’ popularity, well 2013 will be  year where the administration attempts to point to “delivery” to the positive effect the new laws passed in the period 2010-12 are having on the society.

Expect this year and next to read like a long list of new houses build, record employment numbers, record numbers lifted out of poverty, land returned to victims, murder rates lowered, economic growth.

Santos may even borrow the line from his old friend former British Prime Minister Tony Blair who once famously campaigned on the slogan, “Lots done, lots still to do”.

Will support creep up? Possibly so. Where Santos ends up in 2014 and what sort of congress he has to work with will depend on how well the results are communicated and how much the electorate feels they are benefitting from them.