#Elections 2014

Keep FARC leader Timochenko alive for peace?

Colombia has a loose-tongued president.

Yesterday, Juan Manuel Santos told us he knew where FARC commander alias Timochenko is hiding, but claimed he’d “think twice” before ordering a shoot-to-kill.

Mr Santos believes Timochenko is essential to the peace talks in Havana and that removing him would spell an end to the dialogues.

Read more…

Cometh the hour, cometh Germán

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Is German Vargas Lleras about to emerge from the shadow of President Juan Manuel Santos and sweep to victory in next year`s election?

On 30 May 2010, German Vargas Lleras won a million and a half votes in the first round of Colombia`s presidential election.

The Cambio Radical hopeful had come a surprise third, beating candidates from Colombia`s big two traditional parties; Conservatives and Liberals.  The next day, I posted on Facebook, long before I had set up Colombia Politics, “German Vargas Lleras, 2014-2018”, in an allusion to the possible outcome of the next election.

Six and a bit months to go, and this is still a real possibility. Here`s why:

For months Vargas Lleras had led in the polls. In May he was even more popular than Alvaro Uribe, who is constitutionally prohibited from running, but who is now head and shoulders clear of all other politicians in Colombia.

If the election were held tomorrow, Vargas Lleras would beat not only President Santos, but also Uribe`s choice, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, and the left-wing alternatives of Clara Lopez and Antonio Navarro Wolff.

Vargas has dreamt of the top job since he was in short trousers. He has dedicated his life to the ascent of the greasy pole, for decades working his magic in corridors of power. Most recently he has been for three years straight, President Santos` “ministro estrella” or “star minister”.

In the first years of the Santos administration, Vargas pulled the strings for his boss in congress, setting the parliamentary agenda and whipping the National Unity coalition into shape. Latterly he has donned a hard hat to dish out free houses for the poor.

Vargas has been so good, so loyal and indispensible to President Santos, that the commander in chief has placed him in charge of the Santos re-election campaign.

Santos has tied his man so tightly to the ship that even if it sinks he will have no life boat. Or at least that is what Santos hopes. Earlier this year, the president set up Buen Gobierno, a form of think-tank-cum-campaign-headquarters, and swiftly dispatched his right-hand man to be its boss.

Impossible, Santos calculates, for the man leading the charge to extend the administration into a second term, to cut loose and go it alone.

But this is Colombia,  and politics here can often seem as scrupulous as the rotten boroughs of early 1800s England.

Rumours circulate that Vargas Lleras is pouring over the endless polling data that put him top; he faces a genuine crossroads moment.

President Santos has a week to announce whether he will run for re-election. If he decides to pass the buck – something virtually no one is predicting – Vargas will almost certainly inherit the crown. But even if Santos does run, Vargas could yet emerge.

Here are three or many scenarios that could encourage Vargas to pull the trigger.

What if Santos does not recover in the polls? At the moment the president is hugely unpopular and less than a third of Colombians will vote for him. In the first round of voting the spoilt ballots would beat the incumbent. If this does not change quickly, Santos is doomed.

What if the peace process with the FARC guerrillas goes awry? Could Santos really be re-elected if the talks collapse.

What happens if a new wave of protests – like those that brought the nation to a standstill in August – flares up? Coffee farmers and agriculture workers continue to complain of government broken promises, and it is not difficult to see how these or those against health reforms currently going through congress, would take to the streets again. Santos has shown himself incapable of handling such crises, can he really survive more public unrest?

Frankly, such is the antipathy, that it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Colombians decide enough is enough, that Santos whatever the cost, should not be allowed four more years.

So come January once the Christmas festivities are out of the way and Santos has not improved in the polls. Or come March when congressional elections show Santos supporting parties have tanked.

What better time for Vargas Lleras to step forward and offer Colombians a bit of charismatic leadership?

Cometh the hour.

Read our political biography of German Vargas Lleras.

President Santos to win 2014 election

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos will be re-elected in 2014 according to nationwide poll released tomorrow.

Despite an approval rate as low as 29 per cent, Santos` candidature appears unstoppable as Colombians show even less faith in his likely opponents, right-winger Oscar Ivan Zuluaga and leftie Clara Lopez. Read more…

Are Colombia’s voters insane?

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Is Colombia doomed continually to repeat the errors of her past?

Albert Einstein argues insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. The recent wave of protests against neoliberal agricultural and healthcare policy carried out by medicine students and farmers, and supported by the general population, certainly reflect widespread clamor for “different results” regarding the way Colombia is being governed. Paradoxically, the same people who protest and demand “different results” seem intent on voting for the same people and parties that got us into this mess.

Any Colombian intent on voting for the likes of Partido de la U, Uribe Centro Democrático, Partido Liberal, Partido Conservador, Cambio Radical, PIN and the likes of these pro-global capitalism, clientelist and nepotist parties, who somehow expects a better becoming for Colombia because of this electoral choice, should be sent to the psychiatrist – according to Einstein, of course. The progressive concentration of resources and power which the members of these parties have shamelessly, and in a corrupt manner, assured themselves, supplemented by their alignment with global-capitalism, have left Colombia in its actual state of extreme inequality, crisis and general nonconformity.  Paradoxically, somehow, people still consider these parties as viable options.

Are Colombians who vote for these parties truly insane? Perhaps, but before we pass sentence on those citizens who continuously vote for the same corrupt idiots and yet complain about the shameful state of our country, we should revise the concept of the ruling ideology in our times. According to philosopher Slavoj Zizek, ideology today works through the following mental exercise; “(“I know very well…”) and the subject of the enunciation (“…nevertheless I act as if I didn’t”)”.

A theoretical example of today’s ruling ideology would be “I know very well that all ethnic cultures are equal in value, yet, nevertheless, I will act as if mine is superior”. A latent, everyday example of today’s ruling ideology in Colombia is “I know very well that parties like Partido de la U, Uribe Centro Democrático, Partido Liberal, Partido Conservador, Cambio Radical, PIN have governed Colombia is the worst possible manner only catering to their member’s personal interests at the expense of the general population, yet, nevertheless, I will act as if my vote for these parties implies a better future.” This is ideology at its purest.

In other words, those Colombians who choose to vote for the before mentioned parties might not be insane, but the ideology which they practice certainly leads them to vote as if they were truly, genuinely insane. Of course, this comes as no surprise, the only way in which the sort of people who govern us can reach the posts they reach through popular vote (despite evident and brave exceptions of good politicians) is by being elected through the ideology of insanity.

Sadly, the ideology of insanity works in two directions. Not only does it perpetuate bad politicians in power, it also might keep good politicians from reaching power. Here, Antonio Navarro Wolff comes to mind. Even though Navarro-Wolff was declared as the best mayor in Colombia (over Antanas Mockus) while he was Mayor of Pasto, due to his outstanding results, and even though he was declared as the best Governor in the country when he governed Nariño, for achieving equally impressive policy outcomes, a large number of people immediately discard him as a presidential option.

The reason is none other than he is a leftist. Again ideology is clear, the ideological paradox I know very well that because of his leftist ideals Navarro has been a successful governor and mayor, nevertheless, I act as if left-leaning individuals were incapable of governing is clearly at work in many of Navarro´s detractors, before he has even presented his presidential proposal, or even before it is certain that he will be running for the presidency.

The ideology of insanity is certainly a worrying phenomenon, despite its long lasting historic tradition in Colombia. Today, ignorance and the mass media uphold this ideology. Of course, there are also psychoanalytic factors in each ideologized individual that hunger for such ideology.

Most nations in the continent have surpassed their ideological limitations and have been able to elect leaders from new political and social sectors which have, in many cases, delivered wonderful results while improving the quality of life of their citizens. With the upcoming electoral year in 2014, there is no question that Colombia can only guarantee a better becoming by getting rid of its ideology of insanity. Optimism is scarce however, despite all the current upheaval and discontent, ideology is hardly ever defeated by facts.

Santos and the re-election no one wants

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Colombia`s Presidential election race is wide open say nationwide polls.

President Santos`chances of holding on to power next May appear to be dwindling as confidence in his administration falls to a record low and fewer than 1 in 5 Colombians promise to vote for his re-election. Read more…

Uribe al Senado, un error

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Por nuestro invitado, Miguel M. Benito 

El expresidente Álvaro Uribe será la cabeza de lista del Centro Democrático (CD) en las próximas elecciones al Congreso. Un secreto que no era tal. Una jugada, a largo plazo, contraproducente para el uribismo.

La intención está clara: aprovechar la popularidad del expresidente para conseguir un buen resultado en la contienda electoral de 2014 para las Cámaras, que permita al uribismo establecerse como oposición formal en las instituciones y, tal vez, crear momentum que impulse al candidato del CD para las presidenciales de mayo del mismo año. Un cálculo electoral con un problema: sólo mira a corto plazo y, de hecho, demuestra la actual debilidad de la alternativa uribista.

Es una opción de corto plazo porque se centra en lo electoral y se plantea el modo de conseguir un determinado resultado sin haber pensado primero en la oferta que el CD puede presentarle a los electores. Se piensa la presencia en las Cámaras antes de pensar cómo estructurar el partido político. La estructura se hace desde arriba hacia abajo, justo lo contrario a lo que debería ser un movimiento de opinión –como trasunto del Estado de opinión del que ha hablado siempre Uribe-. Se privilegia la elite, no la base del partido.

La tortuosa construcción de las listas del CD a las Cámaras, aún incompleta, se ha visto en la necesidad de recurrir a la figura de Uribe para impulsarse. Una fuerza política nueva necesita tiempo para establecerse ante los electores. Sobre todo si quiere competir con la opción en el gobierno o con partidos tradicionales.  El CD ha fracasado en esa tarea y sólo ha construido una imagen negativa, la del partido del “no”, que no suele dar buenos resultados en las urnas.

Pero el recurso a Uribe manda dos mensajes negativos: en el CD sólo cuenta un nombre, Álvaro Uribe, todo los demás son copias y, Uribe carga con el partido pero, qué hace el partido por Uribe.

En definitiva, el personalismo y la dependencia del colectivo se exacerban. Como una importante personalidad del uribismo me dijo hace unos días: “Si tenemos al Messi de la política, por qué no hacerlo jugar”. El problema es que sin estructura que apoye a Uribe –sin un equipo que arrope a Messi- ¿qué ocurrirá el día que “el Messi de la política” no pueda jugar? Y ahora no hay equipo.

Al demostrarse la necesidad de permanente tutela de Uribe sobre el partido se plantea una duda: ¿las propuestas que la colectividad haga se dirigirán a ganar la aprobación de Álvaro Uribe o la de los electores? Porque en un partido sin estatutos, en el que la única certeza es que la lealtad a Uribe da puntos, se corre el riesgo de pensar más en agradar al exmandatario que al electorado.

Al final uno no puede más que plantearse si el llamado ‘uribismo’ existe. Existen personas que siguen a Uribe pero que no existe un movimiento político serio y estructurado. Todo depende de la persona, no de las ideas. Eso identifica una opción política de corto plazo. Eso caracteriza al caudillismo; sea en Colombia o en Venezuela. Pero no es lo que debería definir a los partidos políticos.

Si Uribe, de verdad, quiere crear una alternativa de poder sólida debería dar un paso al costado de la pugna electoral y asumir la dirección del CD. Desde allí, construir partido, buscar nuevos liderazgos que, identificados con los planteamientos de sus gobiernos, garantizasen la viabilidad futuro del movimiento sin repetir los errores que –para sus propios intereses- Uribe cometió al crear el partido de la U.

 Miguel M. Benito es Profesor de Relaciones Internacionales en las Universidades Externado de Colombia y La Sabana @mbenlaz

Esta columna fue también publicada en USA Hispanic

Foto, ABC

Colombian President Santos to “run for re-election”

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Colombia´s President Juan Manuel Santos today confirms the worst kept secret his intention to run for re-election in 2014. In a surprise press conference Friday, Santos announced the resignation of the Housing Minister German Vargas Lleras who will now move to head up the think tank fundación Buen Gobierno from which the Santista campaign will be run.

The Buen Gobierno fundation was the war room from which Santos ran his campaign for the Casa de Nariño in 2010 and will once again be the focus of the efforts to extend the politics of the regime to 2018.

Santos announces that Vargas Lleras has left to “defend the government and our administration. It´s an act of loyalty for which I´m thankful”.

Vargas Lleras, the “star minister” of the Santos cabinet will now decamp to the offices of the Buen Gobierno foundation in the posh barrio El Nogal, in the north of the capital, Bogotá. There he will lead a team alongside loyal Santos aide, Juan Mesa. The re-election campaign top brass will also include Gabriel Silva, former Colombian ambassador in the USA and the high-profile retired general Oscar Naranjo.

In a classic Santos move, one that allows a degree of wriggle room, the president claimed he would be fighting for the “re-election of our politics”. Claiming his campaign is for a continuation of the “politics of peace”.

In other words, Santos keeps alive the possibility that while he wants Santism to continue beyond 2014, he himself need not necessarily  run.

German Vargas Lleras move to leave the government means he is free to aspire in 2014 either for the senate or for the presidency. So while it seems almost certain that Santos will run, the famously chess-loving president is “keeping his options open”.  Santos has until November to confirm confirm his intentions.

Plan B, should Santos´ popularity continue to fall – Vargas Lleras for president. Politics, Santos style.

Developing story…more later…

60% of Colombians against President Santos re-election

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Colombia President, Juan Manuel Santos faces an uphill struggle to secure his re-election in May 2014 with a poll this week released by Datexco revealing that just a quarter of Colombians would vote to keep in him the Casa de Nariño until 2018.

Opposition to the president´s government is growing, while support for his handling of the economy has plummeted, with just a third believing the nation´s finances are improving and a palty 20% approving of his measures to combat unemployment.

In fact, there is very little for Santos to cheer in the results which show citizen confidence in the administration´s totem issues is at an all time low. On security, just a third give the commander-in-chief a thumbs up, while only roughly the same number are confident of a succesful outcome to the Havana peace talks with the FARC.

On health over 70% of Colombians disapprove of the government´s work, while two thirds oppose policies on both the guerrillas and paramilitaries.

Polling is notoriously unpredictable in Colombia and different polling companies can often produce quite different pictures of the nation´s voting intentions. Nevertheless, the president´s top team should be worried as the Datexco figures come hot on the heels of the news that over half the nation is pessimistic about the direction in which the country is going.

And whether or not Datexco is within the margin of error is also largely irrelevant as Santos´inner circle will know well that this latest set of projections follows a trend.

When Santos entered the presidential palace his approval ratings were even higher than those enjoyed by former president Alvaro Uribe, with almost 90% behind the direction of the new government. But Santos´ popularity has been in virtual free fall since early summer last year when his government was heavily criticized for its failed attempt to reform the justice system. Sure, support picked up in August and September when Santos told the nation of his plans to enter into peace talks with the terrorist FARC guerrillas, but the president´s popular appeal quickly began its seemingly irreversible downwards trend in October/November when the talks began.

Colombia Politics´ view

Santos knows he cannot rely on public backing alone to keep him in power. He must use the full resources of the state, and he must rely on footsoldiers to conjure up the votes. Little surprise then that he announced two days ago his support for a plan put forward by governors and mayors to extend their term from four to six years.

Santos has said he will take the proposals to congress, with his backing. What better way to secure the much-needed support of regional politicians ahead of the electoral battle next year than give them such a coveted prize? What better way of encouraging these important local – and vote-winning – figures to line him up votes?

If Santos can bring together a major coalition of politicians he will be almost impossible to remove from office. I´ll scratch your back if you scratch mine, he appears to be saying.

Polls, public opinion…who cares? Votes are what counts, wherever they come from.