#German Vargas LLeras

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Cometh the hour, cometh Germán

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Is German Vargas Lleras about to emerge from the shadow of President Juan Manuel Santos and sweep to victory in next year`s election?

On 30 May 2010, German Vargas Lleras won a million and a half votes in the first round of Colombia`s presidential election.

The Cambio Radical hopeful had come a surprise third, beating candidates from Colombia`s big two traditional parties; Conservatives and Liberals.  The next day, I posted on Facebook, long before I had set up Colombia Politics, “German Vargas Lleras, 2014-2018”, in an allusion to the possible outcome of the next election.

Six and a bit months to go, and this is still a real possibility. Here`s why:

For months Vargas Lleras had led in the polls. In May he was even more popular than Alvaro Uribe, who is constitutionally prohibited from running, but who is now head and shoulders clear of all other politicians in Colombia.

If the election were held tomorrow, Vargas Lleras would beat not only President Santos, but also Uribe`s choice, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, and the left-wing alternatives of Clara Lopez and Antonio Navarro Wolff.

Vargas has dreamt of the top job since he was in short trousers. He has dedicated his life to the ascent of the greasy pole, for decades working his magic in corridors of power. Most recently he has been for three years straight, President Santos` “ministro estrella” or “star minister”.

In the first years of the Santos administration, Vargas pulled the strings for his boss in congress, setting the parliamentary agenda and whipping the National Unity coalition into shape. Latterly he has donned a hard hat to dish out free houses for the poor.

Vargas has been so good, so loyal and indispensible to President Santos, that the commander in chief has placed him in charge of the Santos re-election campaign.

Santos has tied his man so tightly to the ship that even if it sinks he will have no life boat. Or at least that is what Santos hopes. Earlier this year, the president set up Buen Gobierno, a form of think-tank-cum-campaign-headquarters, and swiftly dispatched his right-hand man to be its boss.

Impossible, Santos calculates, for the man leading the charge to extend the administration into a second term, to cut loose and go it alone.

But this is Colombia,  and politics here can often seem as scrupulous as the rotten boroughs of early 1800s England.

Rumours circulate that Vargas Lleras is pouring over the endless polling data that put him top; he faces a genuine crossroads moment.

President Santos has a week to announce whether he will run for re-election. If he decides to pass the buck – something virtually no one is predicting – Vargas will almost certainly inherit the crown. But even if Santos does run, Vargas could yet emerge.

Here are three or many scenarios that could encourage Vargas to pull the trigger.

What if Santos does not recover in the polls? At the moment the president is hugely unpopular and less than a third of Colombians will vote for him. In the first round of voting the spoilt ballots would beat the incumbent. If this does not change quickly, Santos is doomed.

What if the peace process with the FARC guerrillas goes awry? Could Santos really be re-elected if the talks collapse.

What happens if a new wave of protests – like those that brought the nation to a standstill in August – flares up? Coffee farmers and agriculture workers continue to complain of government broken promises, and it is not difficult to see how these or those against health reforms currently going through congress, would take to the streets again. Santos has shown himself incapable of handling such crises, can he really survive more public unrest?

Frankly, such is the antipathy, that it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Colombians decide enough is enough, that Santos whatever the cost, should not be allowed four more years.

So come January once the Christmas festivities are out of the way and Santos has not improved in the polls. Or come March when congressional elections show Santos supporting parties have tanked.

What better time for Vargas Lleras to step forward and offer Colombians a bit of charismatic leadership?

Cometh the hour.

Read our political biography of German Vargas Lleras.

Category: Comment, Elections
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Colombia President Santos´ six year itch

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Bogota, Colombia´s President Santos yesterday promised to bring forward a law to extend presidential and local government terms from four to six years.

Santos, speaking to regional political chiefs gathered in the Atlantic port city of Cartagena, promised to present to his national unity coalition in congress a set of proposals that would change the constitution, prohibiting the re-election of presidents, but extending by two years, their time in office. The measures would also apply to governors and mayors who complain four years is too short a period in office.

The president argued that were the law to be passed by the legislature he would, in the event that the sought re-election in 2014, be prepared to served a shortened, two year period, taking his overall years in charge of the nation to six.

The announcement appears to have taken the Colombian political world by surprise, and its indicates the advanced nature of Santos´ re-election plans.  The president said:

“I´m the first to recognize that four years is very little time for mayors. I think that six years is the ideal period, hopefully for all.”

“If I stand for re-election it´d be for two further years and from that point onwards all future presidents would have six year terms – without re-election.”

Santos also proposed to chronologically align the elections of the congress with those of the governorships and mayoralities, perhaps with a view to reducing the cost to the state of elections held in different years.

The proposals will now be taken to the directors of the parties of Santos´coalition before being considered for presentation to the legislative chambers.

Colombia Politics´ view

That Santos is to run for re-election is an almost cert, but that he could only serve effectively half a term is a potentially significant development. Santos has gone on record as saying that he will seek to govern only until he has secured the peace in Colombia.

Were he to have a platform of two rather than four years he could easily work through any law or constitutional changes that were to emerge from the peace process currently underway with the FARC in Havana.

It would also allow him to go to the country on an almost exclusive peace seeking platform. Elect me for two years and I´ll hand over a country on the way to peace, he could say.

Two years, 24 months, is an extremely short period of time, and it may allow Santos to avoid conjuring up a series of promises that deal with the problems affecting the nation beyond the issue of peace. In effect, he can leave that up to the chap who replaces him.

One other dimension is that it keeps ambitious ministers like German Vargas Lleras quiet. Vargas is almost certain to run in 2018, as the Santista candidate, but is a terribly kept secret that he would really rather like to be in the presidential palace come next year, but is almost prevented from doing so because of his subordinacy to Santos. Where he to have the promise of Santos´endorsement in only two years´time, well that would be a very attractive prospect indeed.

Watch this space.

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Popularity contest or solution to Colombia´s housing for the poor?

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On Saturday I read in El Tiempo that the Ministry of Housing tops the polls with the most popular minister in President Santos´cabinet. I’d like to know why? What makes this person the most successful minister, or at least the most popular? Who did they ask when they did the survey? Does anybody know?

All I know about the Ministry of Housing is that it is behind a project to give away for free 100,000 houses all over Colombia. But what was the intention of the creation of this ministry beyond this project?

What is its mission, and what purpose does it serve the nation to have created such ministry?

In the same newspaper I see editorials that ring the alarm for the authorities to prepare for the coming rainy season. They say the State should be taking action, helping to move entire populations who currently live on dangerous or unsuitable lands.

Isn´t this a housing problem? Has the Ministry of Housing taken action? Has this ministry done anything to resolve this? Has it even taken a position?

Someone else will soon be in charge of the ministry now that German Vargas Lleras looks set to leave office for political reasons. I suppose to reap the ground that he has soiled. But what has his legacy been? Why is he so “popular”? Has any long term State Policy been drafted with regards to the issues mentioned above or any others…?  Can anybody help enlighten me a bit?

Correct me if I am wrong: the president created this ministry to assist in their plan of giving free housing to people in diverse parts of the country, and Vargas Lleras has been very diligent in doing so; showing up as the giver of free homes to the poor.

In my mind, this looks very similar to the assisting model of the Bolivarian Revolution, where they don’t teach people how to fish; they give them the fish and just wait for people to remember such “generosity” when election time arrives. Next year is election year in Colombia. Is it a coincidence?

Am I missing something here? I suppose I am because nobody in the media, that I’m aware of, has raised their eyebrows. It must be perfectly legitimate to open up a ministry to give homes away and then walk away with political aspirations having earned a “favorable image”.

In my last article I wrote about the importance of education to help change the culture in the country and make for more accountability and empowerment, so continuing with that idea, I wouldn’t oppose to a plan where in coordination with the Ministry of Education, people were trained on the skills necessary to learn to build homes, and schools and hospitals, maybe through Sena.

The Ministry of Housing would run a study to determine which the better places for human settlements would be and, in coordination with the other institutions that would have a say, help build the new towns in those areas that have been so depressed due to the acuteness of the violence problem.

After all, if they are giving back the land to those who used to possess it, wouldn’t it be only logical to plan the right way to give this people the chance to get back their lives?

So what of the Ministry for Housing? Was it just set up for Vargas Lleras? Will we see a new minister with a new set of promises? Colombia´s housing problems are complex and grave. The new houses are just a start, a drop in the ocean. A long term strategy is required, a strategy that worries less about popularity and more on what´s in the nation´s long term benefit.

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German Vargas Lleras, a political biography

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An ever ready and ever optioned presidential candidate, electorate favorite German Vargas Lleras might very well represent Colombia’s political future.  The principle cause being, that German Vargas Lleras is a politician who embodies Colombia’s political past.  He embodies that certain archetype of Colombia politician, who’s born into a family with political power, changes parties according to political convenience, fiercely opposes former political allies when necessary, and is not overly concerned about sharing party ranks with members of Colombia’s illegal armed groups.

Vargas Lleras has promoted and led movements whose names evoke change, like Nuevo Liberalismo (New Liberalism) and Cambio Radical (Radical Change),and yet, he has always managed to become an active member of traditional officialism.

As the grandson of former president Carlos Lleras Restrepo, Vargas Lleras was born into political power. He holds a lawyer’s degree from traditional Universidad del Rosario as well as a master’s Degree in Government and Public Administration obtained at Universidad Complutense de Madrid.

Vargas Lleras’ career as a politician began at a very young age, not yet surpassing his late teens. Following his grandfather’s footsteps, Vargas Lleras joined the ranks of the Liberal Party. At first, he was part of the dissident branch named Nuevo Liberalismo headed by Luis Carlos Galan.  Galan appointed Vargas Lleras to coordinate his campaign, and also to coordinate political support in Los Martires sector of Bogota.

In 1988, Vargas Lleras was voted councilman for the Bojaya City Council.  A year later, while giving a speech during his presidential campaign, Luis Carlos Galan was assassinated. Galan’s death led to the dissolution of Nuevo Liberalismo, and thus, Vargas Lleras decided to return to his grandfather’s Liberal Party. Time would later show that Galan’s magnicide was planned by then Liberal Party Senator Alberto Santofimio, in coordination with another (by then former) Liberal Party Senator, Pablo Escobar.

As a member of the Liberal Party, Vargas Lleras was elected to the Bogota City Council, occupying the post of councilman from 1990 to 1994. During his time there, Vargas Lleras became its president, in 2011, he received a decoration from that institution recognizing his political career.

After his second term as councilman, Vargas Lleras successfully made the leap to the senate. He would be elected another three consecutive terms, holding senatorial office from 1994 until 2006. During his first years in the Colombian Senate, Vargas Lleras became known for his ardent opposition to Conservative President Andres Pastrana’s peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

The Liberal Party’s favorable stance regarding the peace talks resulted in a party change for Vargas Lleras. And thus, the Colombia Siempre movement was born. Vargas Lleras secured another term in the senate running for Colombia Siempre. At the same time, he supported another Liberal Party dissident’s campaign, that of former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. The fierce opposition to Pastrana’s peace talks with FARC created the Vargas Lleras-Uribe political alliance for the 2002 congressional and presidential elections.

These eventful times also witnessed the first of two assassination attempts made on Vargas Lleras, presumably by the National Liberation Army (ELN).  In 2003, Vargas Lleras became President of the Senate as the Colombia Siempre movement became a part of Radical Change Party. Soon after, Vargas Lleras also became the President of Radical Change.

After securing these important posts, the now hugely influential Uribista figure suffered a second assassination attempt in 2005, this time presumably, orchestrated by Colombian secret police state forces. During this period of his stay in the senate, Vargas Lleras supported Alvaro Uribe’s presidential reelection, his call for constitutional reform and his presidential campaign, despite evidence of corruption and paramilitary infiltration in officialist U Party. In terms of public policy, Radical Change supported officialism, as a member of Alvaro Uribe’s governing coalition.

Scandal maculated Vargas Lleras in 2006 as a result of the so called “parapolitics” congressional disgrace.  Forty percent of the congressmen belonging to Vargas Lleras’ Radical Change party were suspended for alleged ties (many later proven true) with terrorist organizations. As the head of Radical Change, Vargas Lleras stood accountable for the party’s political actions.

Two years later, Vargas Lleras once again made big headlines by withdrawing support from former President Uribe’s attempt at a second constitutional reform, which would give legal base to his second reelection. Instead of supporting Uribe, Vargas Lleras left the Senate, and announced his candidacy for presidential office.

And thus, Vargas Lleras paradoxically ended up running against former political ally, and political heir to Uribe, Juan Manuel Santos (amongst other candidates) in the 2010 Colombian Presidential election. Vargas Lleras’ attempt at the presidency was quite ill-fated, securing just 10% of the votes. Yet his political career was not over yet, former election rival (now president) Juan Manuel Santos, appointed Vargas Lleras as his Interior and Justice Minister, and thus, Radical Change returned to officialism.

Shortly after, Vargas Lleras was named Housing Minister, were he has promised to deliver 100.000 houses for the poor. Regardless of the many scandals around him (perhaps even because of them), Vargas Lleras remains a political figure with ample support, holding a considerable chance of one day becoming Colombia’s Head of State.

Category: Profiles