Santos and the re-election no one wants

Colombia`s Presidential election race is wide open say nationwide polls.

President Santos`chances of holding on to power next May appear to be dwindling as confidence in his administration falls to a record low and fewer than 1 in 5 Colombians promise to vote for his re-election.

The results of the influential three monthly survey Colombia Opina released last week make for depressing reading in the presidential palace. Santos` popularity has plummeted over the summer months following civil unrest, a stalling economy, and the protracted peace talks with the FARC in Cuba. Just a quarter of Colombians have a favourable view of the commander in chief.

Three years into Santos`four year mandate and the majority of Colombians now believe the Santos government and the country as a whole are heading in the wrong direction. All this is a far cry from the president`s early months in office, when public backing ran up to 80 per cent.

When asked, Colombians point to worsening law and order, a faltering economic policy, rank corruption, and a disillusionment with state institutions as reasons for pessimism.

Despite the discontent with the current presidency, however, the picture remains unclear on who Colombians would like to see walk into the Casa de Nariño next year.

Santos still just about leads the pack, but as an incumbent with 94% of the congress in his favour, he should be way out in front.

The main opposition had been thought to come from those loyal to former President Alvaro Uribe, but the front runner for the ex president`s endorsement, Francisco “Pacho” Santos` voting intention barely breaks double figures.

Attention is instead beginning to turn to left-winger Clara Lopez as an alternative – a plague on all your houses candidate – with some polls placing her second behind Juan Manuel Santos. A victory for Lopez, official candidate of the Polo Democrats, would represent a lurch to the left for Colombia, a country generally considered to tend to the right.

Lopez, however, must fend off a challenge from demobilized M19 guerrilla Antonio Navarro Wolff, if she is to harness the growing support for a possible leftist government.

Wolff, Pacho Santos, Lopez are some of the names in the frame. But throw into this alphabet soup of candidates, current vice president, Angelino Garzon, German Vargas Lleras – if Santos doesn`t run – former Bogota Mayor, Enrique Peñalosa, and Conservatives Marta Lucia Ramirez and Jose Feliz Lauferie and you have a bewildering list of possible winners.

Colombia has a highly personalized politics in which party allegiances play second fiddle to the candidate`s own ambitions. Politics and policy often too seem irrelevant; power is the real game, and it is not uncommon for politicians to swap sides to fall in line behind what looks like the winning horse.

The number of names in the pack speaks to the uncertainty over the future of President Santos. Were he the shoe in he should be – given the backing the major parties have given him, and his bureaucratic spending power – the amount of candidates would be signficantly reduced. If the ship isn`t sinking, the rats stay on board.

The truth is not even the Bogota elite is sure about Santos. The president is unable to connect with Colombians and he is losing their support at an alarming rate. He must arrest this fall or the nation`s top families will ditch him too.

The questions remains, who will these “thought leaders” back? This election race is up for grabs.