#Elections 2014

Santos announces stimulus package

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In what might be judged as a cynical vote-winning exercise, President Santos unveiled his PIPE – Promotion Plan for Productivity and Employment – on Monday.

The PIPE is an economic stimulus package which he hopes will help revitalise some of the ailing areas of Colombia’s economy. In particular, Santos hopes it will breathe some life into Colombia’s industrial sector which is failing to keep pace with overall growth patterns. The President attributed the difficulties this area of the economy, which includes oil refining, acrylic, paper and cement production, down to the strength of the Colombian peso, and the break this has on exports. The agricultural sector too was marked as stuttering.

Santos´PIPE package is also a pitch to the middle classes, with the government proposing a subsidy on the interest on mortgages for houses costing between US$43500 and USS108000 (similar to that seen in the UK Government´s budget a few weeks ago). The government believes this will benefit around 35,000 initially, as well as boosting the housing market.

The measures reflect a growing concern in the Santos administration that in spite of the relatively healthy GDP growth figures in recent years, the Colombian economy is still underachieving – and that the trends in certain sectors are towards downward revisions. Perhaps more salient though is the fact that the coming year will see a hotly contested presidential election.

These measures are difficult to separate from the short term electoral interests of the government. Particularly so given the areas at which the stimulus package is aimed – crucial groups of voters.

Supporting the industrial and agricultural sectors as well as assisting people to buy their own homes will give the Santos campaign some concrete successes that it can pitch to voters in the coming year when the question will be “what have you done for Colombia during your four years as President?”

The campaign is well and truly under way.

President Santos needs help, and fast

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Ask yourself this question. How many faces of Juan Manuel Santos´ cabinet do you recognize? Be honest. One, maybe? Two, perhaps? I´m guessing even the hardiest of politicos would struggle to name more than three or four.

With the exception of the Vice President Angelino Garzón, the Defence Minister Juan Carlos Pinzón, and housing minister Vargas Lleras, the government´s top team is largely anonymous. This is bad for democracy, bad for the government, and potentially life threatening for Santos´ re-election hopes.

Last August JMS shook up his team.  He was responding to a dramatic fall in public confidence in him following the Justice Reform bill debacle.  That reshuffle, however, has had very little positive effect in terms of public opinion. The current crop of ministers might be good bureaucrats, they might even be decent law makes, but politics is also about message, about communication and leadership. And in this area they are falling dramatically short.

We know that Santos is acutely conscious that his government is failing to communicate. So why does he stick with a team that appears camera shy? Mr President, how often do your ministers take to the airwaves either to make or defend their case?

When was the last time we heard your transport minister speak, for example? Infrastructure is one of Colombia´s most pressing concerns, yet I can´t remember a time when Cecilia Álvarez (no, I can´t picture her face either) appeared on TV or radio to tell us what she´s doing about it.

What too of your health minister Alejandro Gaviria, of whom we all had high hopes? Sure, he appeared on television once or twice last month to announce his new reform but has since appeared to scuttle back to the corridors of power.

And your interior minister, or your justice minister, do we know anything of them? Who has come out to promise change in the appalling conditions in our prisons? Where are the announcements on measures to curb the corruption that´s putting a huge break on the nation´s economic development and scaring off inward investment?

The time has come Mr President for you to bring out the knives.

Santos needs a new cabinet of real politicians – not bureaucrats. He needs campaigners; people who will defend and fight for the government. All successful governments rely on “hard nuts”, “bruisers”, “heavy weights” to retaliate and lay some punches on the opposition.

At the moment the opposition is having all the fun. Uribe and Robledo on the right and the left respectively are running rings around the government. And if the campaign is already nasty, it´s going to get a lot worse once the Uribistas have chosen a candidate for the 2014 fight.

Santos cannot afford to stick with the political deadwood if he wants to be re-elected.

The problem with the cabinet is not just that it is full of – in the eyes of the public – nobodies. It is also far too Bogotano. The President needs urgently to find some regional faces.

Senator Amando Benedetti has called this the “Country club” cabinet in which the ministers “speak more English than Spanish”. For critics, Santos has surrounded himself with his mates, with a Bogotá-centric-strato-25 elite that has more in common with we Europeans and North Americans than with a family from Pasto, Popayán or Putumayo, Montería, Manizales or Mitú.

So If Santos´ team is seen as being out of touch with the nation, how can it hope to fight for votes? Especially so when you consider that Uribe´s real strength is in the countryside, across the regions. He could hoover up support here while Santos retreats to his urban, liberal base.

This, Santos´ third year in office, is supposed to be one of results. Traditionally the legislature is slow as politicians start to return to their bases to whip up support for the forthcoming election fight. So now more than ever Santos needs a group of politicians – a team – ready and able to go out and sell the government´s achievements.  He doesn´t need law makers, he needs communicators.

If Santos were a caudillo his cabinet wouldn´t matter. If Santos were even an Obama, or a Clinton, or a Blair perhaps it wouldn´t matter, either. But for all his qualities, Santos is not a politician for the media age.

If Santos´ advisers can´t see that the very worst thing for this president is to force him to struggle on with a cabinet that has zero public profile then they should be sacked. He needs help, and fast.

It´s premature to suggest the Santos Presidency is in danger of going out with a whimper; after all he still holds most of the bureaucratic cards. But unless changes are made to the top table, the ride will be unnecessarily bumpy and journey´s end unnecessarily difficult to predict.

This article was commissioned by The City Paper.

Video – Santos´ invisible and elitist cabinet

Colombia Politics editor Kevin Howlett´s videocast.

He looks at why President Santos´ cabinet is failing to communicate with the country.

Are they a group of technocrats?

Do they belong to an elite, out of touch with modern Colombia?

Are they real politicians?

For more information, contact Editor Kevin Howlett.

Email: [email protected]

Subscribe to our You Tube channel.

10% of Colombian Congress “impeached”

COLOMBIA-CONGRESO HORMIGAS

Colombia´s Congress returns later this month to the shocking news that 10 per cent of members have been forced to give up their seat in the legislature, either for corruption, criminal wrong-doing, or inappropriate conduct.

Of the 200 plus elected to the 2010-2014 congress, a scandalous 22 have been kicked out of office, and we have a year to go before elections take place to replace them.

Famous names include the highly controversial Piedad Cordoba who was banned for “collaborating” with the FARC, Ivan Moreno, brother of corrupt Bogotá Mayor Samuel Moreno who stands accused of illegally pocketing millions for dodgy contracts, and Piedad Zucardi for alleged links to Colombia´s right wing paramilitary groups.

Other more bizarre cases include Senator Merlano who was last year famously caught drink driving, and appeared (in a video recorded by the police) attempting to threaten officers to let him go on account of the size of his electorate… Yes, seriously, “do, you know who I am?”, Merlano was effecting shown to be saying.

Incredibly, among those on the black list include a former Senate President, Javier Cáceres, and a senator with one of the highest number of votes won in the 2010 election (almost 140,000), Dilian Francisca Toro.

Virtually no political party has been left untouched by the litany of offences, the U Party has ten deposed congressmen, the Liberals 5, the Conservatives 4, PIN 2, and the Polo Democrats 1.

It´s little surprise then that according to a Gallop poll, two thirds of Colombians view the congress negatively, a figure that is trending upwards. Not even during the parapolitics outrage of the last parliament, when the influence of the paramilitaries on the capitolio was laid bare, has the congress enjoyed so little public support.

Colombians appear to have grown tired of their politicians who in far too great a number have been shown to be inept, corrupt or criminal.

Congress must act to halt the decline in confidence Colombians have in their institutions. New recruits must be attracted to the legislature and politicians must be more closely scrutinised by the media, and the public. The history of Latin America´s politics tells us that caudillos and dangerous populists spring up when discontent is rife.

Uribe seeks presidential candidate

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Colombia Ex President Alvaro Uribe´s search of a candidate to take on Juan Manuel Santos in the 2014 presidential elections has led him to consider current Governor of Antioquia Sergio Fajardo.

Fajardo ran on Mockus´Green Party ticket at the elections in 2010 and – despite the Green Party forming part of the Santos Government coalition –  has long been tipped for a tilt at the top job against the current president.

Former Medellin Mayor, Fajardo is politically of a different colour to Uribe, a centrist who has campaigned and tried to govern on an fiercely anti-corruption platform.

Fajardo has denied the rumours that suggest he was courted by Uribe last week and has claimed he will serve out a full term as Governor. However, he has until May to decide whether to resign, as the law permits aspiring candidates for the presidency to stay in post until 12 months before elections take place.

It seems difficult to see Fajardo as Uribe´s candidate – he is too much his own man.

That Uribe is said to be considering Fajardo is evidence of the former president´s anxiety to find a strong candidate to face Santos. Uribe´s former finance minister, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga has been in the frame for months and officially launched his pre-campaign last Thursday. But polls show Zuluaga has little visibility. Former Vice President, Pacho Santos is another name Uribistas in the Democratic Centre coalition have floated. But he has around 30% support in the country and is considered a polarizing figure by many. Conservative Marta Lucia Ramirez has also flirted with the Uribistas to try to form a coalition between the blues and Democratic Centre.

The simple truth is that Uribism is far from settling on a candidate. It must act quickly if it is to be able to position a possible challenger to Santos. Uribe himself continues to be coy on whether he will return to head up a list for the senate. Despite claiming in a recent interview on Cable Noticias´flagship political programme, 360 Grados to be in “permanent campaign” since leaving the presidential palace, it is clear that Uribe has sharpened his attack on the Santos Government and has entered the pre-election battle. Who will emerge as his standard bearer?

Centro democrático: cuestión de tiempo y posicionamiento

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A guest piece by Miguel Benito Lázaro.

En mi columna del pasado 23 de enero en esta publicación trataba sobre la lentitud con que las fuerzas políticas colombianas estaban maniobrando de cara a las citas electorales del próximo año. Esa demora resulta especialmente sorprendente en el caso del anteriormente denominado Puro Centro Democrático, que en apenas unos meses ya se ha convertido en el Centro Democrático -CD-, sin más.

El CD juega contra reloj. Como agrupación electoral en proceso de formación de cara a 2014 parte con un importante rezago en cuanto a posicionamiento y visibilización ante la opinión pública. Mientras los demás partidos ya tienen cierto reconocimiento como marcas electorales, el CD no ha empezado a situar sus mensajes y propuestas. Las actividades de para alcanzar un cierto perfil y reputación ante la opinión pública son necesarias para construir una imagen pública reconocible de una persona, organización o institución. En el caso de un partido se persigue que el electorado, aún antes de entrar en una campaña electoral, reconozca fácilmente lo que aspira a conseguir la agrupación.

Algunos replicarán que tal esfuerzo es innecesario, porque la presencia del ex-presidente Uribe aclara a la opinión pública cuáles son los lineamientos del CD. Pero, con eso no basta.

Porque los que no siguen la política de forma constante -que, no nos equivoquemos, son la mayoría de los ciudadanos-, pueden no ser plenamente conscientes de la ruptura del expresidente Uribe y el Partido de la U, que desde la fundación y por su propia denominación popular, remite a una asociación rápida con Álvaro Uribe. Esa confusión puede ahondarse si algunos reconocidos uribistas que aún hacen parte de la U no tienen ocasión, por las peculiaridades del sistema de partidos colombiano, de insertarse en el CD.

Otro tanto puede ocurrir con el CD y el Partido Conservador, puesto que algunos de sus miembros más destacados son recurrentemente son asociados con el uribismo -caso de Marta Lucía Ramírez-. A nivel general cabe preguntarse qué diferencia a los conservadores de los centristas sin que haya una respuesta contundente. Sin propuestas distintivas entre ambas toldas, optar por una u otra depende del reconocimiento del partido y los candidatos, aspecto en el que la larga historia del Partido Conservador Colombiano le confiere ventaja.

Por otra parte, la etiqueta, que inevitablemente acompañará a los miembros del CD, de ‘candidatos de Uribe’, puede no ser suficiente para ganar una curul. Ya vimos en las últimas elecciones a alcaldías y gobernaciones que la popularidad del expresidente no es endosable sin más a otros candidatos.

De nuevo, algunos dirán que eso tiene fácil solución: la presencia de Uribe en las listas del Senado garantizaría que no hubiera error posible. Pero lo que pudiera parecer una solución en realidad supone un problema. La omnipresencia de Uribe como única garantía de  la ortodoxia de los miembros del CD es contraproducente, porque transmite mensajes que debilitan a los candidatos, a saber: que no son confiables sin vigilancia o, peor, que son marionetas.

Los rectores del CD deben ser conscientes que las limitaciones de tiempo para posicionar  públicamente a sus candidatos a Senado y Cámara de Representantes antes de la campaña electoral reducen sus posibilidades de formar las listas y, posiblemente se vean obligados a optar sus listas con personalidades que ya gocen de cierto reconocimiento público y que ya se han significado claramente con los principales postulados uribistas. Una vez definidas las listas, el partido como plataforma electoral tendrá que dotarse de contenidos, mensajes, etc. que le diferencien de otras fuerzas políticas. Una cuestión de tiempo y posicionamiento. Difícil equilibrio. Urgente.

Miguel Benito Lázaro es analista político, docente de la Universidad de Externado de Colombia en relaciones internacionales, y panelista invitado de diferentes programas de opinión nacionales. Texto aparecido originalmente en la Revista Posición.

Video, Editor´s views on Uribe and the elections

Colombia Politics editor Kevin Howlett´s videocast of the week ending 17  February 2013.

He looks at the presidential and congressional election campaigns that are already underway, and ex president Alvaro Uribe´s fortunes.

For more information, contact Editor Kevin Howlett.

Telephone: (+57)  321 300 9783

Email: [email protected]

Subscribe to our You Tube channel.

They´re coming for your vote. Quick, hibernate while you can

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If a week´s a long time in politics, then the 12 months of 2013 will feel like an eternity.

There is little doubt that this will be a pivotal period for Colombian politics and for Colombian society as peace talks conclude and pre-election fever grows.

But as much as the coming months have the potential to bring real change, they will also be a time of excruciating déjà vu. From now on we should expect campaign pledges, slogans, and brutal attacks on broken promises to be parroted with nauseating regularity.

I suspect you might already be bored of the president v ex-president phony war, the steady drum beat of which began within months of the Santos administration´s inauguration.

Well, prepare for the real ennui to set in. It has been all but confirmed (as this goes to print) that Uribe will head up a list of candidates for the senate, and that Uribismo, will fight to return to the Capitolio. The warring tribes have gathered.

So, if you thought the Santos Uribe fight had already polarized the nation, the best/worst is not yet upon us.

In a sign of things to come, rumours suggest that the president will bring forward a political reform bill when congress returns in March. The sole purpose of this reform as La Silla Vacia puts it to “put a break on Uribe´s aspirations (for power in 2014)”.

Unfortunately for Uribe this is an asymmetric war. He has very little bureaucratic armoury at his disposal to defend against the Santos´ incursions; he will have to rely on his hyperactive Twitter account to do much of the attack work.

Away from Uribe and Santos, the steady attrition of government ministers will continue as key figures like Bogotá´s own Germán Vargas Lleras (housing minister), Gina Parody (Santos´ top adviser for the capital), and David Luna (vice-minister in the labour department) resign to fight for senate seats.

Colombia´s constitution ensures the separation of powers between the executive and the legislature (at least on paper) by preventing ministers from “politicking” or campaigning while in office (or within a year of being so). As a result, those wishing to seek parliamentary spots must get out of government in good time.

With each new resignation, speculation will grow about new alliances, mergers, and party separations. Colombia´s institutionally weak political parties means there are plenty who will jump sinking ships.

The truth is this lack of serious party organization means voters are often left with little idea as to either what their politicians stand for, or for which grouping they are running. Farcical? Perhaps a little.

New presidential candidates will also emerge.

On the right, we already know that former Defence Minister, Marta Lucía Ramírez is keen to represent the Conservatives – possibly in alliance with Uribe´s Centro Democratico movement.

On the left, former Bogotá caretaker mayor, Clara López will stand for the Polo Democratic Alternative, but it is unclear whether an alliance can be forged with (unlikely) or against (marginally more likely) Navarro Wolff´s centre-left block (Pedimos la Palabra)?

And as the peace talks draw – hopefully – to a positive conclusion, how will the demobilized FARC be incorporated in the political set up, will they join Piedad Córdoba´s Marcha Patriotica, will there be FARC endorsed candidates for the congress?

The endless speculation, the moves around the chess board are sometimes enthralling for political commentators, but for the public it´s usually an entirely unedifying spectacle. All this speaks to total voter turn off by the time of the elections next year.

Part of the problem with Colombia´s democracy is that the politicians themselves often fail to communicate or – even worse – even to establish a policy platform from which to do battle for votes.

The idea of a detailed election manifesto so common in more participative democracies appears almost alien here. Instead, we´re reduced to a game of policy vacuumed personality politics.

The result is that during election and pre-election cycles in particular, the media concentrates on the superficial, the flotsam and jetsam, as King Lear sniffed, “who loses and who wins; who’s in, who’s out”.

If this telenovela politics is not your thing, 2013 should be a year of hibernation because try as you might, you will not be able to ignore or switch it off.

This article first appeared in The City Paper.