Monday, 7 November 2011

FARC leader's death - victory for Santos and Colombia

Two nights ago my sleep was interrupted by the unmistakable buzz and whir of military helicopters as they circled overhead, bringing the cadaver of FARC leader 'Alfonso Cano' to a morgue in the city of Popayan, southern Colombia.

For days my hotel, close to the city's airport, has rattled to this now familiar sound as the Colombian air-force set off on sorties into the guerrilla heartlands in the virtually impenetrable nearby mountain terrain. By Friday these excursions had delivered a devastating blow, decapitating the FARC of its Marxist commander in chief. Operation Odyssey ended the years long search for 'Cano', the most wanted man in Colombia.

The removal of alias 'Alfonso Cano', supreme leader of this band of terrorists, is victory for the military, for peace, and politically, for President Santos. But is also another step forward for Colombia as a nation, in its development and also its image internationally.

President Santos' political victory - over the critics


Critics had begun in recent months to complain that Santos had gone soft on the FARC; that he had abandoned the hard-line policies left to him by his predecessor Alvaro Uribe. But Santos has now, within little more than a year of taking office, successfully taken out both the top military commander, 'Mono Jojoy' and the chief intellectual/ideologue and overall leader of the FARC, 'Alfonso Cano'. He has delivered two overwhelming blows to the head and heart of the FARC.

The eight years of Alvaro Uribe's presidential rule between 2002 and 2010 were the toughest the FARC had had to endure. Uribe was elected promising to bring about what he called 'democratic security', an end to the terrorist's tyrannic reign. Uribe inherited millions of dollars of US aid secured as part of the Plan Colombia agreement signed by his predecessor Andres Pastrana, and US President Bill Clinton. Uribe threw this money into the fight against the terrorist group. The largely successful eight year military campaign forcibly released the FARC stranglehold in large swathes of the country, took out out key commanders and middle-ranking officers, and foiling planned attacks. Perhaps the most eye-catching strike against the FARC under Uribe's watch, was the death of 'Raul Reyes' in an operation carried out in Ecuadorean territory in 2008. 'Reyes' was the first member of the FARC's ruling secretariat to be killed in action. His death was hailed as precipitating the start of the end for the FARC.

During the latter years of Uribe's presidency, President Santos was his defence secretary - Santos was in charge of the operation that brought about the death of 'Raul Reyes'. Since taking office, however, Santos has charted a different course to his old boss. The Santos regime's narrative has focused most notably on economic growth and restitution for those displaced by conflict. Opponents had begun to assert that Santos had ignored - even overseen a debilitation of - Uribe's democratic securities policies. They cited the increase in FARC activities over the course of the last months, and more recently the death of 27 soldiers in such attacks, as evidence that Santos' resolve is not that of Uribe. These complaints had begun to stick. In August Santos opted to reshuffle his government replacing defence secretary Rodrigo Rivera with his erstwhile chief of staff Carlos Pinzon - Santos was bringing the fight against the FARC once more under his wing. However, this had little effect in quietening the critical voices.

The death of the 'Alfonso Cano', who had been closely pursed by the Colombian military in recent months, however, puts pay to the myth that Santos has dropped the security ball. Santos, in fact, as defence secretary and now as president, has delivered the biggest military victories against the FARC. Some will say he has even surpassed the successes of Uribe.

Operation Odessey has not only dealt a major blow to the FARC, but also to Santos' critics. He will - for a time, at least - occupy the moral high-ground in future debates on security policy.

A peaceful end to the FARC's fight?

The FARC has sustained major wounds, it is a military corps limping to its death. The final blow is, however, yet to be struck. Five of the leading guerrillas have fallen in recent years, its numbers have dwindled, killed in action or lost to defections, and it has been driven back into ever more remote territories - yet it remains a force, a threat. No doubt the FARC will regroup, and launch new attacks in the coming months. But the troops will have been demoralised by the death of their commander in chief.

But will this force the FARC to the negotiating table? President Santos argued that the choice before the militants is demobilise or end up 'either in jail or in a grave'. He must hope they heed his words.

As previously reported on this website, the Santos regime is working to establish a peace process, and transitional justice system. The central tenet of this process is the offer - to the guerrillas - of an alternative to their current plight. The hope must be that combatants look to the fact that the mayor-elect of Bogota, Gustavo Petro, himself an ex-guerrilla, demobilised and is now fully incorporated into active political life.

The prospects for peace will depend on who the FARC decide should lead them now their key ideologue is dead. Cano was an intellectual leader, of the upper middle class of Colombian society. His was an ideological fight (to overthrow the government and install a Marxist state). Appearing to see a potential political end to the battle, he spoke in recent months of the possibility of entering into a peace process; words that were, however, backed up with precious little action.

Should the FARC elect another ideologue like Cano then peace could be a few steps closer. The alternative, taken from the military, drug-trafficking wing, would threaten to postpone or push back the day when eventually the bell tolls for the armed struggle. We await the puff of smoke from deep within the Colombian jungle.

Colombia's image abroad

Rewind ten years and Colombia's image abroad was just about as unfavourable as is possible. International investors and tourists alike gave it a wide birth. Too high was the risk. This began to change under President Uribe. As documented elsewhere on this website, FDI and tourist numbers have risen exponentially, while GDP has doubled over this decade. Colombia is a now seen as a safer, more stable bet than many of its neighbours. It is a market emerging on the world stage.

The death of 'Alfonso Cano' generates yet more confidence in the country. The Colombian government is showing the world that it is willing and able to fight - and beat - the FARC. It is strengthening and stabilising the nation's democratic institutions.

President Santos' favourite word is 'governability'. For too long Colombia was ungovernable. With every step towards a peaceful end to the conflict the greater the ability the government has to invest in building the future of the country. Ending the conflict is, for Santos, not the end game but it is a step necessary to secure his vision for the country. The world should wish him well.

1 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great article Kevin! We decent Colombians agree wholeheartedly that thanks to Uribe and Santos, Colombia is today a much better nation than it was before 2002. Enjoy your stay in Colombia! Cheers! -- Capitan Justicia

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