President Santos |
Are we witnessing the death of Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos' political party - El Partido de la U?
The U was formed in 2006 to support Alvaro Uribe's presidential re-election bid. Uribe is no longer in power and although Juan Manuel Santos was elected under the U banner (as a result of Uribe's support for his candidature) his natural home is considered by many commentators to be in the Liberal Party.
With the news this week that the Liberal movement in Colombia looks set to reunite, political hacks are wondering whether the U may have run its course. President Santos will decide its fate.
Colombian party politics has become complicated and fractious in recent years. Following the constitution of 1991 new parties began to form, ending the duopoly on power the Conservative and Liberal parties had hitherto enjoyed. The most important parties are - in addition to the two traditional parties - Cambio Radical, Polo Democratico, El Partido Verde, and of course El Partido de la U.
The party of the U has been the most successful of the parties formed since 91. President Uribe governed as a member of the U, as has current president, Juan Manuel Santos. In both houses of the Colombian Congress, the Party of the U has the largest number of seats. On the face of it talk of its imminent end would appear to be premature.
However, here's why the story could have legs. When the party of the U came into being - to support Uribe - it attracted politicians from existing parties. Many of these were taken from the Liberal Party - indeed 24 of the 27 senators elected as U politicians were originally Liberals.
Many of these 'Liberals' are now rumoured to be listening closely to the (official) Liberal Party's overtures towards a reunification of the Liberal movement. In October the Liberal and the Radical Change parties are set to meet at a conference to discuss this reunification (Radical Change was formed in 1998 when current Interior Minister, German Vargas Lleras left the Liberal Party).
A leading member of the U party has now suggested that Liberal members of the U should also take part in these discussions. Amando Benedetti, who until July this year was the president of the Senate, spoke to Semana, Colombia's main weekly publication to set out this case.
Benedetti stressed that it would be up to President Santos to take the initiative - and that this would also need the support of Alvaro Uribe. The former is possible - Santos has acted more as a Liberal than a Conservative president. The latter is more difficult to see happening. The Liberal Party opposed Uribe's government, and Cambio Radical stood against his proposed second re-election. Indeed the relationship between its leader Vargas Lleras and Uribe is at an all time low after months of often bitter public disagreement.
For its part, the leadership of the U are dismissing the importance of recent events. Juan Lozano, president of the party is looking to the elections next month as evidence that the party continues to enjoy high levels of public support.
Although the death of the U is perhaps not imminent, Colombian party politics has a habit of surprising even the most senior of observers. The direction of travel of Santos' government is key to what happens long term. So far, Santos has revealed much more of his Liberal side - should he run for a second term it is certainly not inconceivable that this will not be as the candidate of the U.