Monday, 26 September 2011

Uribe & Penalosa - the politics of Bogota's mayoral election

Penalosa and Uribe on the campaign trail
For eight years Colombian politics were dominated by one man - ex-president Alvaro Uribe. Yesterday he was back on the campaign trail - not for himself but for his old friend and would-be mayor of Bogota, Enrique Penalosa.

Until recently, Green Party candidate Penalosa was a dead cert to become Bogota's mayor. But with a month to go to polling day, it's now a tight, two or three horse race. Penalosa is hoping Uribe's support will nudge him across the finishing line - will it?

Bogota is one of Latin America's major cities. It's the financial heart of the fourth largest economy in the region, and is home to around 8 million people. The Mayor of Bogota is the second most important political job in Colombia. No surprise then that the battle to occupy this post is fiercely fought.

The campaign so far.

This year's race threatened until the summer to be a dull affair. Penalosa appeared to be walking it as he faced a field of inexperienced and relatively unknown opponents. That changed with the arrival on the scene of two of Colombia's most maverick, and popular politicians - Antanas Mockus, and Gustavo Petro.

Antanas Mockus
Both Mockus and Petro stood in the presidential elections last year. Mockus was the surprise package - at times threatening to win these elections with his message of a new politics, independent from the political elite. Starting from nowhere, Mockus overtook the Liberal and Conservative candidates eventually to come second in the race. Like Penalosa, Mockus is a former mayor of Bogota, and a successful one too. Gustavo Petro is something of a left-wing firebrand. A former member of the political arm of the old guerrilla group M-19, Petro has long been a vocal opponent of the old Uribe government. His straight talking is popular among certain Colombians who feel he - like Mockus - offers an alternative to the elites that run Colombian politics. He came fourth in the presidential elections.

Gustavo Petro
Politically, Bogota is a very different city to the rest of Colombia. It is known as the Athens of the Americas - the home of intellectual thought in Colombia. While right-wing politicians enjoy the greatest success in Colombia as a whole, in Bogota the left-wing candidates often do better. A fact Mockus and Petro are playing to their advantage.

Recent polls suggest a technical draw between Petro and Penalosa. Mockus has slipped into fourth, behind Carlos Galan (of the Radical Change party - and who many see as a rising star). It is too close to call. This might help explain Uribe's sudden appearance.

Penalosa's candidature

At the start of the last decade, Penalosa left office as one of the most popular mayors in the city's history. Considered the 'urban planner' mayor, Penalosa is credited with having delivered a Bogotano renaissance, transforming the city from 'a snarled, toxic, and crime-ridden mess' (NYTimes) into a modern and inclusive city.

Penalosa brought about cultural change in Bogota, reclaiming the streets for cyclists and for pedestrians, and opening new parks and cultural centres across the city. He also introduced the Transmillenium guided bus which remains the main public transport option for most Bogotanos. Penalosa's critically acclaimed vision of a modern, green and healthy city, took him on leaving office to the international lecture circuit, converting his model for urban development into international 'best practice'.

It was surprising, then, given his success and popularity that Penalosa was defeated by left-winger Samuel Moreno in the mayoral elections of October 2007. Stranger too given Penalosa had started the campaign with an extremely healthy lead over his rivals. He had been virtually guaranteed the win. But, Moreno ran a better campaign than Penalosa, and he lost.

Some fear history is repeating itself - that Penalosa is about to throw away the mayoralty again. The problem for Penalosa is that many see him as being an excellent politician once in power, but a lousy one at campaigning to get there. For this website this is unfair.

Uribe could be just the ticket then. The former president is a consummate campaigner, a charismatic figure able to press the flesh and get out the vote like no other in the country. Although Uribe first lent his support to Penalosa months ago, yesterday marked the first occasion when he actively joined in the campaign. Penalosa's supporters will hope this will help push their man into the lead.

So will Uribe swing it for Penalosa?

Well, it's unclear. Uribe was once Colombia's most popular president. There was a time when Uribe's candidates were virtually guaranteed victory. But, following a series of scandals affecting his old government, Uribe is now more of a divisive figure than he once was. Some in the Green Party itself - who as a body had voiced opposition to Uribe's government - opposed the involvement of Uribe in the campaign.

Perhaps it is true that on the downside Uribe helps to reminds voters of the alternative - ie Mockus and Petro both of whom have been among the fiercest critics of the Uribe regime. But Uribe is still popular, and he's undoubtedly charismatic.

The race, though, remains in the balance, all eyes are on the next set of polls to see what effect Uribe's appearance has had.

Perhaps we will see more of Uribe on the campaign trail between now and the end of October as he fights to keep his old foe, Petro, out of power.

A final thought - Uribe argues that Penalosa - because of his success as mayor last time - deserves another go. For this website, Uribe is dead right.