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| Penalosa, Petro and Parody |
It is impossible to predict who will become Bogota's next mayor. With less than three weeks of campaigning left, opinion polls are still pointing to a three horse race. If they are to be believed we're heading for a technical draw between Enrique Penalosa and Gustavo Petro - with Gina Parody following closely behind.
Colombia´s three big parties are the Conservatives, the Liberals and the Party of the U. Yet none of the three candidates is representing either one of these parties.
This year´s mayoral race is proof that Colombia´s politics are becoming increasingly personalised - and increasingly independent. Traditional loyalties no longer exist and party machines are less effective. The platform now matters less than the person.
The birth of pluralism
The history of Colombian politics has been monopolised by the battle for power between the Conservative and the Liberal parties.
Changes to the constitution and ambitious politicians have - over the last decade - turned Colombia into a pluralist state. The Congress is now formed of, among others, the Party of the U, Cambio Radical, the Greens, the Polo Democrats, and of course the Conservatives and Liberals.
This proliferation of parties was stage one of the evolution of Colombia´s politics. We are now into stage two where the personality is appearing to replace the party.
The Uribisation of politics
Ex-president Alvaro Uribe is the most potent example of the personalisation of Colombian politics. Originally a member of the Liberals, Uribe left the party to run for president as an independent in 2002. He won under the Colombia First banner - a movement he created. And to support Uribe´s second mandate, a new party, the Party of the U was formed - taking members from the Conservative and Liberal parties. Many of the U´s politicians are fierce Uribistas. Although the U is supposed to stand for unity many commentators joke that is actually stands for Uribe.
The alphabet soup of candidates before the Bogota electorate owes much to Uribe´s trailblazing. The campaigns of the current runners and riders all rely more on their personalities than on their parties.
Candidates have had to strike political deals and or form alliances to stand a chance of winning - the unconditional support of the party machinery cannot be counted on.
The panorama
The election is a series of curiosities - the first is that none of the three main candidates, Penalosa, Parody or Petro is representing one of the major political forces in Colombia.
Penalosa
The second curiosity is Enrique Penalosa. Penalosa is an ex-mayor with an international profile. He is a personality in his own right. However, despite being the Green Party candidate he cannot count on the Green vote turning out for him. Many Greens are said to be with Parody or Petro. The Greens had - until they joined the coalition government last month - been an opposition party. They were the closest thing to a threat President Santos faced in the elections of 2010. So, it is odd that Penalosa is now seen as the candidate of the establishment. He is supported by the Party of the U, and ex-president Alvaro Uribe has become his most vocal cheerleader. The Green Party had in recent years become one of the fiercest critics of the Uribe government. When Uribe took to the streets with Penalosa, the Greens split.
Many of those who vote for Penalosa will do so often despite - not because of - his party platform.
Parody, Mockus
The Parody, Mockus alliance is a tale of two independents. Mockus left the Green Party earlier in the summer - as part of the fallout of Uribe´s support for Penalosa. After much speculation, he decided to stand, he was effectively an independent. By the end of September it had become clear that he could not win on his own and (as reported on this website) formed an alliance with Gina Parody. Gina Parody is herself running as an independent. In 2009 she left the Party of the U citing ideological differences. It is worth remembering that the U was Uribe´s party and that Mockus is - alongside Petro - one of the ex-president´s bitterest opponents. An odd marriage, then.
Petro
Gustavo Petro is an old member of the guerrilla group M19. But , since leaving the group, he has become an influential and important figure on the left. He fought the 2010 presidential elections as the candidate of the left-wing Polo Democrats. But like Mockus he fell out with his old party and left them in the summer to run for mayor, as an independent. Petro´s base, however, is those who ordinarily vote for the Polo Democrats. The Polo do have an official candidate, Aurelio Suarez, but he barely registers in polls.
The also rans
The Conservatives, the Liberals and the Party of the U are the three biggest parties in Congress. Yet none has a candidate with a hope of winning.
Conservative Party candidate, Dionisio Araujo retired from the race as he was polling less than 1 per cent of the vote. He himself has joined the Parody camp. But Araujo is at odds with Conservative leader, Jose Dario Salazar, who has said the party is yet to decide who to support. Most expect the Conservatives to turn out for Penalosa.
Liberal supporters have their own candidate David Luna still in the race - but he has only five per cent of the vote. The rest of the natural Liberal vote is split, but it is thought that over a third will go for Penalosa.
Who will win?
Bogota is in desperate need of strong leadership. Voters have a difficult choice before them - with nine candidates still on the register. The candidate who wins will - between now and voting day - need to pick up votes currently with the also-rans. The winner will also look to convince the 16 per cent of voters who are yet to make up their mind.
The uncertainty in Bogota is on one level healthy for democracy. But if the trend continues there is a danger that policies become increasingly crowded out or ignored in favour of discussion on the plots and subplots of who´s supporting whom, who´s standing and who´s not. This would be regrettable. For now, however, we should enjoy what´s left of a hugely intriguing battle.