Proposals released this week - by Colombia's peace commission - would allow ex-FARC guerrillas to take up political office in Colombia. Is a political end to Colombia's war in sight?
Political terrorism in Colombia
Two guerrilla groups, the FARC and the ELN have terrorised Colombia since the 60s. At times the FARC have controlled around 40% of Colombian territory. Using the lucrative drugs market to finance their operations, the FARC are fighting to install a Marxist revolutionary state. To pursue these ends they have killed elected politicians, displaced around 4 million people, bombed public and private buildings and between 1997 and 2007 kidnapped close to 7,000 people, including a former presidential candidate.
Recent efforts to defeat the FARC
Some suggest that the FARC are all but finished as a force. In recent years top-level guerrillas 'Raul Reyes' and 'Mono Jojoy' have been killed as have a significant number of mid-level combatants. FARC numbers are estimated to have been reduced to under 10,000, and the territory under their control is now largely restricted to the south and south east of the country (where jungle hideouts restrict the Colombian military's ability to locate them). Nevertheless, President Santos has warned against complacency, arguing in August that the FARC are debilitated and desperate, but that they are not yet defeated.
To understand where we are today and where the process might next go, the politics and tactics of Santos' two presidential predecessors need to be understood - as well as those Santos himself has pursued since coming to power in August 2010.
Andres Pastrana, the Conservative president from 1998 to 2002 sought to end the conflict through negotiation and dialogue; establishing the peace process of 1999. Despite Pastrana's work, the FARC continued their reign of terror and in 2002 - ahead of the presidential elections, the talks were called off.
Alvaro Uribe |
Pastrana's successor, Alvaro Uribe, was elected on a platform that promised the defeat of the FARC. He charted a different course to Pastrana - fighting fire with fire. Uribe's father had been killed by the FARC - which according to many commentators heightened even further his desire to rid the country of the group. Uribe placed security in Colombia absolutely at the heart of his regime. It was the basis from which the country could re-establish itself on the world-stage, attract visitors and investors and deliver social-justice.
Using the money secured as part of the Plan Colombia agreement with the US (signed by Pastrana) to equip the Colombian military, Uribe made significant inroads into the FARC's reserves - taking out key top and middle-level officials, and reducing their 'reach' in the country. Uribe brought about significant improvements in the security situation in Colombia.
Current president Juan Manuel Santos was defence minister in Uribe's government - at the centre of the regime's efforts to destroy the FARC. He led the controversial offensive in Ecuador in 2008 which resulted in the death of Raul Reyes.
So what tactics has Santos pursued since becoming president? Has he stuck to the policies of his old boss - those he himself had been responsible for delivering?
In the opinion of this website, Santos has neither been jaw jaw like Pastrana nor war war like Uribe.
Alfonso Cano - FARC leader |
A year ago, as Santos was preparing to be inaugurated as president, the leader of the FARC released a video in which he called on the president-elect to enter into unconditional peace talks. Santos, smelling a rat, responded that 'the door to dialogue is not closed', but that before it could be opened further, FARC rebels would have to comply with a series of pre-conditions, key among them their disarmament.
Santos went on - in his accession speech - to stress the need to find a peaceful solution to the conflict. The message was that his approach would be tough on the FARC but also that it would look to finding a resolution to the conflict - expediting its end through political and not solely military means.
Santos established a peace commission demanding it draw-up a roadmap to peace - which was to include the mechanics of any transitional justice system should the FARC and ELN demobilise.
On concluding an important phase in its work, the peace commission last week made public their recommendations to President Santos. The most eye-catching is the proposal that ex-leaders of the guerrilla groups, upon payment for their crimes, should be permitted - by the constitution - to seek office in the Republic.
Santos is a good friend Tony Blair. Blair oversaw the process by which former Irish Republican terrorists traded their guns and grenades for the gentler art of political combat. Santos might be tempted to look to his old friend's work in Ireland for inspiration.
What happens next?
The initiative can only be taken forward with executive direction from the president. Should Santos decide to back the plans Congress would have to agree (unanimously) through a vote in both houses for the law to make it onto the statute book.
For now, eight Congress debates to discuss the wider proposals are to be programmed over the next year. The mechanisms and process for arriving at peace in Colombia should then be established.
Given Santos' determination to bring about a peaceful end to Colombia's internal war, the peace commission's proposals must at least be viewed as a possible reality. The debate will rage and many in Congress will express opposition (at different levels). Santos will have to decide how much political capital to invest in it - if indeed he takes it on. His coalition represents over 90% of Congress - bringing them with him would be difficult, but it would be difficult for them not to fall in line if it were the president's will. This is a moment for political calculation and will.