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| Santos' election |
Colombian socialists this week launched a campaign to prevent the re-election of President Santos. Under the Polo Democratic party's proposal, Colombian presidents would be constitutionally restricted to one (sequential) term in office.
But President Santos' popularity is high, his approval rating is polling around 80%, and his coalition government controls over 90% of Colombia's Congress. If there were elections today, he would romp home. Polo are picking a fight they know they can't win. This website reveals why.
Within a day of the Polo Democrats placing the initiative on the table, the Santos government had swept it away, into the legislative dustbin. Polo knew they would not win the battle, but they were able to make their point, and to play politics.
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| Alexander Lopez |
Polo's game is tactical. As Santos shot down the proposals, Polo senator Alexander Lopez took to the airwaves to cry foul; that Santos was acting not in the interests of the nation but out of personal gain, leaving open the option of his own re-election but without committing either way. Lopez insisted the president end the speculation and 'say at once if he wishes to stand for re-election'.www.eltiempo.com/politica/mininterior-habla-sobre-reeleccion-de-santos_10502704-4
Polo's demand that Santos sets the record straight only 13 months into the four year mandate is at best hopeful. But it is calculated - on two levels.
First - Polo want to know who they will be fighting against in 2014. Any intelligence on who will run - or who won't - will help Polo prepare, and to choose their political battles, targeting where and on whom their blows land. Rightly, Polo will leverage anything that forces the President's hand.
The second calculation is a political chess move. Santos' government is a coalition of the left, the right and of the centre, of Conservatives, Liberals, Greens, the U, and Cambio Radical members. He must keep them all together. Every move Santos makes is scrutinised to see whether it offeres a nudge to the right or a wink to the left.
Santos' balancing act is a delicate one. He wants to avoid any speculation about his political future - such speculation is a threat to the structural integrity of the coalition, the ties that bind the group. What Polo's proposal does is push this speculation to the fore.
Santos was elected in 2010 as the candidate of the Party of the U. Yet voices were even before Polo's move this week already beginning to whisper that Santos could, should he stand for re-election, opt to run for different party. Polo want to turn up the volume on these whispers, and hope to turn any tensions within the coalition into potential future splits.
Will this political strategy deliver results?
The idea of Santos running on a different platform is beginning to bubble up to the surface. It's worth remembering that it's only a matter of a few years since Santos left the Liberal Party to join the U (in support of Alvaro Uribe). During the Uribe years, the Liberal movement split. Members left to form the Cambio Radical party and - as in the case of Santos - to join the U party. So recent moves to reunite the entire Liberal movement - as reported last month on this website - must be seen as a threat to the U and the Conservatives' influence. Should the body re-unite it would present a formidable force. www.colombia-politics.com/2011/09/death-of-colombias-biggest-political.html
Conservatives and U members' suspicions won't have been calmed by Liberal Party Leader, Rafael Pardo's recent call for an early debate on the 2014 presidential elections. According to Pardo, the Liberals would support a Santos candidature. But, and here's a rather big but, that this support requires a re-negotiated or entirely new agreement to that which is currently in place. The implication is that the Liberals would play a larger role than they already do.
Conservative and U party members of the coalition are anxious to maintain Santos as much in their camp as possible. Speculation that Santos will re-join the Liberals is speculation. But speculation, and intrigue plays into Polo's hands. They will want to keep the debate running as long as possible. Santos remains a most sought after commodity. Should he choose to run in 2014 as a member of the U, or as a Liberal candidate he will be difficult - and if his popularity continues, impossible - to beat.
Notes -
The original script of Colombia's 1991 constitution states that presidents are not permitted sequential terms in office. Santos' predecessor, Alvaro Uribe - with the support of the political elite - amended the constitution to permit his re-election in 2006. Uribe was a two-term president from 2002 to 2010. The Polo initiative argues for a return to the original script of the Constitution - so that Uribe remains the exception rather than becoming the rule.
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