#Socialism
FARC´s PR war as peace talks loom
Dare we dream of peace in Colombia?
Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos confirmed Monday evening that his government has entered into exploratory talks with the FARC to negotiate an end to 50 years of conflict.
Earlier in the day Venezuelan television channel Telesur reported that both sides had signed an agreement to advance official peace negotiations scheduled for 5 October, in Oslo; details Santos refused to confirm.
The president has received support from across the political spectrum and in the country’s media. Ex-president Alvaro Uribe, however has denounced his successor as a traitor and an appeaser.After ex-President Pastrana’s failed attempt to secure peace over a decade ago, and following a recent upsurge in FARC activity, there are also parts of Colombian society sceptical of Santos’ ability to end the continent’s longest-running civil war.
Dare we dream of a Colombia in peace?
Talking behind closed doors.
President Santos has promised in the coming days to reveal the details of the 30 meetings held in private between his government and the FARC over recent months in Cuba. What we know is that Enrique Santos, the president’s brother led the delegation, and that representatives of the Chávez and Castro regimes were present. We also understand agreement was reached on the agenda for talks, the issues for negotiation and potentially the red-lines.
Crucially, it is reported that the facilitators were able to establish a level of trust between the terrorist group and the government (evidenced by the FARC’s decision to maintain silence throughout the day and wait for the President to speak) – essential if peace talks are to be successful.
Santos has received severe criticism from Uribe and his followers – both for entering into discussion while bombs explode and battles rage, and for doing so clandestinely.
But Uribe is not the only source of opposition, there are sections of society highly critical of Santos’ approaches to the guerrilla group. They point to the level of violence evident in different regions of the country and argue that the FARC are not ready to negotiate.
They might have a point, but analysing the situation differently it is easy to see that the FARC’s recent actions are a sign of desperation, a last-ditch attempt to improve their position at the negotiating table.
How will the talks work?
President Santos made clear that the country had learnt the errors of the past. The infamous talks at El Caguan that broke down in 2002 have become a byword for the FARC’s duplicity. The rebel group ridiculed Pastrana’s government with broken promises that forced Colombians to lose all confidence in their political leaders. Uribe came to power on the back of the collapse in these talks, promising to punish the FARC.
Santos is a statesman that has studied closely this episode, and of course more successful negotiations across the world. He has previously sought help from former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair who masterminded the famous peace agreement in Northern Ireland.
He is also a president who has worked for decades to end the conflict. Even in 1997 when Santos was the Liberal’s pre-candidate for the presidential elections of 1998, he had a clear plan for peace. When Santos entered the presidential palace he placed the search for peace not only at the heart of his inauguration speech, but also his legislative agenda.
Santos is desperate for his legacy to be the president that delivered peace to Colombia.
As well as Santos’ abilities there are other reasons to be optimistic that the mistakes of the past will not be repeated. The most important is perhaps the change in dynamic between the government and the FARC. In 2002 the state was weak while the guerrillas were in the ascendancy.
There was no imperative for the FARC to negotiate or give up a struggle they had every chance of winning. Following Plan Colombia and the money invested during the Uribe years in fighting back the rebels, the Colombian state has emerged healthy and economically successful while the guerrillas are on their last legs.
Equally, the government is in a significantly better position to offer the FARC what they want. The transitional justice laws are in place that will permit a negotiated settlement for criminal punishments, and also lies open the way for political representation. Additionally, the Santos regime can point to the land restitution law which helps deliver a flagship FARC demand for rural community justice.
Finally, the Caguan peace talks were dominated by discussions about securing a cease-fire and a demilitarised zone. In Oslo this will not be on the agenda, permitting the focus to lie instead on the fundamental issues upon which a lasting peace can be established.
Speculation suggests that the talks will centre on the following issues:
- Narco-Trafficking
- Reintegration into civil society and political representation
- Rural development
- Human rights
So is peace in sight?
The Colombian government has a constitutional duty to seek peace and President Santos’ efforts must be supported. The FARC are a spent force whose leaders have spoken of their desire to bring the war to an end. They have fooled us before, but this time things might just be different.
Uribe will continue to attack but he should reflect that the advances in security made during his eight years in power have made today’s announcement possible. When Uribe entered office he spoke of his hope that the guerrilla would demobilise and that Colombia would have a ‘politics with arms’. It will be a long a painful journey, but the alternative is another decade of bombs, bullets, kidnappings and assassinations.
A Colombia in peace is the ‘country within reach of the children’ as Garcia Márquez put it.
Also published on Redes Colombia
Left-wing López capable of a Colombian presidential ‘coup’?
Resounding electoral success is not a phrase often used to describe the Colombian left; unsurprising in a country that has endured 50 years of war against Communist insurgents.
If recent polls are right, however, the presidential elections of 2014 are a once in a generation opportunity to redraw the political map. A third of voters appear set to vote left-wing while the right will be split between a Uribe-backed-horse and President Santos.
If a candidate can be found to unite the left, and appeal to those in the centre, then victory is a (very distant) possibility – well that´s what they´d like you to believe, of course. There are many names in the frame but only one that appeals – Clara López, President of the Polo Democratic Alternative party. The grandstanding polemicists must now give way and let López, a serious politician with real experience, have a shot at the Casa de Nariño.
A divided left?
Gustavo Petro, the Mayor of Bogota, is the left-winger with the most power in Colombia. His position is the second most important in the country, and despite his militancy with the old guerrilla group M-19 he was able to win over a sufficient number of middle and upper income voters to take control of the city in November. His mandate began in January and has been – so far – underwhelming.
In an earlier article published on this website Petro’s approach to winning the election – against the establishment candidate, Enrique Peñalosa – was examined and proposed as a blueprint for the left in future elections. Petro, originally seen as a firebrand who scared away any voter not ideologically tied to his brand of socialism, moderated his style and shifted the focus of his speeches on to the centre ground.
Unfortunately for Bogota this strategy was forgotten as soon as he entered power; his regression to the left has alienated and polarised voters.
Petro is a lesson for the left – both in how to win elections and how (not) to remain in power once there.
Petro is also a warning to left-wingers to avoid the temptation towards internal warfare. The Polo Democratic Alternative party who supported Petro’s presidential campaign in 2010 were unable to unite around his candidature for the mayoralty of Bogota. Petro, in protest at the party’s refusal to condemn corrupt members, left the party to form his own movement, the Progresives.
The Progresives split the Polo vote. The movement, bruised by Petro’s denunciations and internal splits, went on to record catastrophic local election results in November last year. Had the party acted to clean up the corruption and used Petro as a figurehead nationally and in the capital, the results would no doubt have been quite different.
Petro is by no means the only important politician to have left the Polo. Luis Eduardo (“Lucho”) Garzón – a former Bogota Mayor – ditched the party to form the Greens, essentially a left-leaning party (despite being officially part of the Santos coalition government). The Greens have been electorally successful, most significantly gaining the governorship of Antioquia with Sergio Farjardo.
Another figure of the left is Piedad Córdoba, a controversial former senator who is accused of suspiciously close relationships with the FARC and with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. Córdoba, an excellent orator and former member of the Liberal Party, this year established her own movement, the far left, Marcha Patriotica.
The left in Colombia is riddled with factions – it must repair them to select a candidate capable of winning the presidency.
Alongside the personalisation of its politics there is another reason why the left in Colombia has failed to make electoral inroads. As Oscar Fernando Sevillano, writing for the Bogota think tank Corporación Arcoiris argues, the left have been ‘frustrated by the extreme right, the political elites in the regions, and parts of the military and the police have participated in their extermination’.
Remembering Gaitán, Galán, and Lara Bonilla, not to mention the hundreds of council candidates that over the years have been silenced, it is difficult to argue with Sevillano’s assessment. Sad then that news emerged this week of a planned attempt on Petro’s life.
The opportunity:
While the threats to the left of either internal annihilation or external assassination are not insignificant, the opportunity to make history is there. Leon Valencia, director of Nuevo Arcoiris in a comment piece for Semana heralded the results of the poll commissioned by his organisation in which it was revealed that 28% of voters would vote for a left-wing candidate.
According to Valencia, the poll is ‘a message of great hope’ for the leaders of the Colombian left. Should they ‘choose a single candidate who looks to the centre’ he ventures, ‘they have a chance of reaching the Palace of Nariño’.
Valencia went on to argue that with the split in the votes of those on the right – as a result of the fight between Uribe and Santos – there is every possibility that the candidate of the left could win through to the second round – the head-to-head. Valencia drew analogy to Petro’s victory in Bogotá, showing how a surprise candidate – in a crowded field – can sneak through the middle.
Choosing the candidate – Colombia’s ´Iron Lady´
The left have been successful in Bogota, it has been a long-held bastion of progressive thought. Many capital cities in the world are more left-wing than the rest of their nation. To win in 2014, the left needs to choose a candidate that can appeal not only to the liberal metropolitan elite, but also to the rural voters.Clara López – despite her Bogota credentials – is this person; a serious and respected voice of the moderate left. She has appeal across all sectors of Colombian society, and will not alienate or repel votes.
In January Clara López returned to the presidency of Polo following a highly successful period as the caretaker Mayor of Bogota. Having taken over from Samuel Moreno – who had been suspended on corruption charges – López succeeded in uniting the capital, governing from the centre, and vanquishing the ghosts of her predecessor’s regime. López’s reputation as safe pair of hands had been cemented – and she remains one of the few left-wing Colombians with real and tangible governing experience.
The appeal of Doctora López is based not only in her experience but also her character. Her image is not that of the prototype politician of the Latin American left. Cadenced rhetoric and polemical speeches about imperialist Yankees are not her style; she is a rolled-up-shirt-sleeve, no-nonsense politician. The tone of her discourse is serious and modest, the content realistic, not idealistic.
‘Colombia’s Iron Lady’ (as a Brit who grew up in the time of the real Iron Lady, I know one when I see one) often wears thick rimmed glasses, pins tightly back her hair and dresses seriously. She is more akin to head mistress of a posh British school than a gun-toting revolutionary.
Although aristocratic and formidable, although schooled overseas and an impeccable member of the governing class, López has never let the common touch evade her. The aloofness of oligarchical arrogance that Santos is accused (unfairly) of is not in evidence here.
Examining her closely, there is almost something Churchillian in her stare and in her determination to do what she believes is right. If the left wants a presidential candidate that will deliver blood sweat and tears, it should look no further.
Also published on redescolombia
Gustavo Petro useless or ruthless Mayor of Bogotá?
Gustavo Petro is a ruthless politician, or he is a useless one. The Mayor of Bogotá faces heavy criticism today for his decision – only five months into his mandate – to demanded the mass resignation of his cabinet.
According to most commentators, the Petro administration is in crisis. These critics point to a string of high-profile departures (even before last night’s political massacre) in particular to Antonio Navarro’s (effectively his second in command) sudden exit three months in, and conclude that Petro is unable to run a government.
Senator Robledo’s bid to change Colombia’s politics
The 2014 Colombian presidential race is already underway. For once the talk is not about Juan Manuel Santos’ re-election. Nor is the focus on the machinations of the former president, Alvaro Uribe. This week we learnt that Senator Jorge Enrique Robledo, the intellectual left-winger intends to allow his name to go forward as a candidate.
Eloquent and polemical, Robledo has star appeal. He is, now that Gustavo Petro is in power, the most vocal and recognisable opposition politician in Colombia. In the 2010 senate race Robledo secured the third highest vote. He is undoubtedly a cult figure.
The left’s candidate of choice?
It is not in any way certain that Robledo will emerge as the chosen candidate for his Polo Democratic party. Clara Lopez, the Polo Democrats’ president is the favourite to secure the nomination. But the party is unlikely to decide this before next year, leaving plenty of scope for Robledo’s star to continue to ascend.
An eventual Robledo candidature would offer Colombians radical change. Robledo is opposed to just about every policy of the Santos administration. In fact Robledo runs counter virtually to the entire political culture of the country.
Robledo has made his career attacking the effects of the pro-market neo-liberalist policies that have reigned in Colombia since the 1990 presidency of Cesar Gaviria. Robledo is a red-blooded socialist who tends to protectionism, and the anti-big business rhetoric popular in large swathes of Latin America.
He is against the free-trade agreement with the USA, against private involvement in university education, and against the (as he sees it) colonialism of the Washington Consensus. Were he to win the presidential elections, he would quickly set about reversing much of the work of the last 20 years of centrist and right-wing Colombian governments.
In a telling interview with the quality publication El Colombiano earlier this month, Senator Robledo told Colombians that their country is on the sick-bed, and that the treatment the Santos presidency is administering is making the patient worse.
In this article, Robledo sets out the case for an alternative government for Colombia. A government based on socialist ideals. The senator’s thoughts for this brave new world were published a little over a week before it came to light that he was exploring the possibility of his candidature, as it is put. He will consult friends within the Polo Democratic Party before deciding his course of action.
Should he get a chance to present his prospectus, the article in El Colombiano sets outs clearly how this policy platform might look.
He argues that during the eighteen months of the Santos regime Colombia has gone from bad to worse. His principle argument is that government policies have benefited the monopolies, big businesses, and foreign investors at the expense of the poor, the middle classes, and the country’s small and medium-sized businesses. According to Robledo, Santos has widened Colombia’s inequality gap, reinforcing its status as the third most unequal nation on earth.
The intimation is that a Robledo presidency would halt the free trade agreements with the USA, with Europe and with South Korea. Robledo’s contention is that Colombia would not benefit from the agreements: The inherent structural imbalance would lend foreign companies a major advantage over less well developed Colombian businesses.Robledo predicts a new era of colonialism, as bad, he suggests, as the era of Spanish rule. This fatalism is typical of the protectionist left.
In the article, Robledo also attacks Santos’ land restitution policy, and his judicial reform laws arguing in his characteristically colourful language, that the President is steering the country into the ‘abyss’.
As with many politicians of his colour, Robledo is hotter on what he is against than on what he is for. A clear and compelling plan for a workable alternative for the country is not – for this website, at least – immediately available for consideration.
But Robledo will not worry about that. For now his brand is one of opposition. Last year when university students went on strike in protest against President’s Santos proposed changes to the education system, Robledo became the flag bearer of their cause. With soaring anti-privitisation rhetoric, Robledo launched wave after wave of attack, eventually helping students to force the government to shelve the plans. Robledo has long enjoyed cult status within certain parts of Colombian society.
In a Congress where over 90% of the politicians are members of the coalition government, Robledo stands out like a sore thumb of contrariness.
There is no point in pretending that Robledo is anything other than a long-shot for president in 2014. He is a politician that is best suited to opposition. There is no denying his eloquence or even his likability. But he is precisely the sort of leader the Colombian left needs to steer well clear of.
Petro’s election in Bogotá showed the way for his former Polo Democratic colleagues – move to the centre, or die. For the Colombian left to have a real chance in 2014 it must select the moderate (and experienced) Clara Lopez.
Robledo is a stalking horse, but one that provides a bit of colour to a Colombian political system where the odds are stacked hugely in favour of the ruling administration, and where opposition is often drowned out in a din of unanimity.
Gustavo Petro, the great outsider of Colombian politics
The red flag was hoisted high above the Lievano Palace in Bogotá on the afternoon of 1 January, announcing the official start of the Gustavo Petro era.
Petro, once a hard-line ultra-left guerrilla militant, has morphed into a populist, centre(ish)-left elected mayor, in charge of Colombia’s capital city.
Until a fortnight ago, Petro had only known life as an opposition politician. He now has the second most important job in the country. Critics complain that he lacks the experience necessary to run a city of 8 million souls, and that he is an ideologue, not an administrator. Supporters respond that he is a principled man with strong beliefs, who has brought together a cabinet of wise heads.
After years of relentlessly attacking those who held the reins of power, Petro has four years to prove he knows what to do now they’re in his hands.
Petro has started his time in office as those on the right fear he intends to carry on. His first address as Mayor was unmistakably of the left. Those that crowded into Bolivar Square to see their leader sworn in, heard how his government will tax the rich, how it will plough the money into public services, providing free education and drinking water for the poor, and how it will levy taxes on motorists to fund cheaper ‘more accessible’ public transport.
In Europe these policies would be called ‘old left’. Since taking office, however, Petro has shown he is equally at home with ‘new left’ ideas. He has borrowed from the modernising left movements that swept through Spain and the UK in the early 2000s.
Petro, like a Colombian Tony Blair or Jose Luis Zapatero, has committed his government to the pursuit of ‘equality’, openly embracing positive discrimination. Marking the sand, Petro in a highly symbolic act appointed women to half his cabinet positions.
Not content to stop there, he has now moved onto the territory of political correctness. Last week Petro set about dismantling centuries old tradition by seeking to end bullfighting in the capital. It was not appropriate for a city in the 21 century to applaud and make a spectacle of violence and death, he argued.
This way of thinking is new for Colombia, a deeply conservative and traditional country. Petro is setting about on a quiet revolution. He hopes to bring about social change, a shift in values, and a re-calibration of Colombian politics. The right and the church have dominated political discourse. Petro wants to present an alternative. As he puts it – socialism and love.
It is no surprise that there are those in Colombian politics who are frightened of Petro, not just because of his politics, but also as a result of what his personal story represents for the future of the country. Petro’s background promises to revolutionise the country even more than do his politics.
Unlike most Colombian politicians, Petro’s blood is not blue. Colombia has tended to be run by an elite, a governing class. Looking at Petro’s family tree you do not see generations of former senators, governors or presidents. If Petro is a success as mayor, his narrative of commoner turned political leader becomes a dangerous precedent for those who currently run the country. Could he encourage power to begin slowly to shift from the governors to the governed?
Petro’s genetic background ensures he is a political outsider. And by appearing to move to centre, Petro is now an outsider within a Colombian left that has marched en masse into the wilderness of untempered socialism. But most interesting will be Petro’s relationship with the national governmenFor now Petro is an independent in a country of consensus. President Santos’ coalition government controls over 90% of the Congress. But the coalition’s reach is felt at all administrative levels. The local and regional elections at the end of October were seen as a major success for Santos.
Of the 32 new governors, sworn in on 1 January, 17 belong to coalition parties, as do over half of the 1,100 new mayors. In some cases – like that of Cali’s new mayor, Rodrigo Guerrero, even candidates elected on non-coalition platforms are also unofficially linked to the government. Semana, Colombia’s intelligent weekly publication, have suggested that never before have the national and regional governments been more closely aligned.
There is nothing necessarily troubling in all this, President Santos’ reforms are the right ones for the country, and he desperately needs local politicians on his side to make the policies a reality, and to deliver his land restitution plan. But such a lack of opposition cannot for long be healthy.
In this context, Petro is almost uniquely positioned to present the country with an alternative prospectus – one that in the future he may choose to put forward as a presidential manifesto.
Even for those instinctively against his way of viewing the world – like the author of this website – Petro should not represent a threat. Colombia desperately needs more outsiders. Opposition is necessary for a participatory and more mature democracy. Petro represents large sections of Colombian society, it’s a good thing for the country that he is heard, and given a chance to govern, even if he fails.
The dawn of a new, democratic, Colombian left?
Sunday saw the dawn of a new left-wing in Colombia. Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla in the ultra-left M-19 was elected Mayor of Bogotá, in the process becoming the second most powerful politician in the land. The progressives – a political party he formed only four months ago – also became a major political force gaining councillor seats across the capital city. Petro wasted no time in announcing that this party would take their fight to the nation, promising to field candidates across the country when the country elects its congressmen and the president of the republic in 2014.
The left in Colombia has tended to the extreme rather than to the centre – more guerrilla and Chavez supporting than ´third way´ pragmatists. Petro himself once played this role. But to get elected in Bogota he underwent a transformation, tidying up his image, softening his rhetoric and appealing to the middle-classes who once would have been appalled by his guerrilla past.
The election of Petro sends a message to those on the left that if they want to play a useful role in the political life of Colombia they must move to the centre. Will they heed it and will a new, democratic left become a major force in Colombian politics?
After years in the wilderness in a country where the right-wing has dominated, the Colombian left finally appear to be finding their voice. Last month this website reported on the leftwards recalibration of the Santos government, and of the polls that pointed to a left-wing victory in Bogotá.
Since that article Gustavo Petro has indeed won the election, and is now mayor-elect of the Colombian capital. At the same time Santos´ government has taken a further step – albeit an incremental one – to the left, by naming the leader of the Liberal Party, Rafael Pardo, the new employment minister.
Pardo´s appointment will be explored in greater detail in future articles on this website, but it´s worth noting here that Santos is focusing on those issues which the right is accused of having neglected. Santos is presenting his government as the job-creation government. This week employment figures showed that those out of work had dropped below 10% – an historic achievement, according to the Santos regime. Under the previous government, unemployment rose.
Santos has also pointed in recent months to the fact that within Latin America, Colombia is the country where most new jobs have been created in the last year. So, who better to take charge of what is set to become a pillar of the Santos administration, than the leader of the centre, centre-left party within his coalition? Pardo is set to become a key figure, and he will not shy from his left-leaning (but centre-left leaning) ways.
Back to Bogotá and to Petro´s historic victory. Until a few months ago Gustavo Petro was still seen largely as a left-wing rebel – a serious politician, yes, but one that could appeal to those on the centre, most definitely not. Both his guerrilla past, and his scruffy left-wing philosopher appearance turned voters off, in equal measure.
But Petro decided to change. He appeared on television in suits and ties, he toned down his rhetoric and focused not on attacking his opponents but on presenting a positive image of the future of Bogotá. He moved towards the centre – or at least appeared to do so. Petro´s campaign borrowed from Tony Blair´s Labour Party in the UK and from Bill Clinton´s Democrat Party in the US. He tore into the current administration, and the corruption at the heart of the Bogotá government. He began to embody change. Petro´s old rhetoric had been negative, attack-dog like but over the last few months he began to paint voters a picture of the sunlight uplands of life under his leadership.
He promised a ´politics of love´ not a classic left-wing class war. He cast himself as Bogotá´s saviour, he became a quasi-religious figure. His own story is too one of salvation – a reformed guerrilla bringing peace to the streets of Bogota, healing the wounds of a nation scarred by bloody civil war. Hís victory speech read like St Francis of Asissi, bringing peace and harmony to a discordant city, and country. In this speech he called himself ´the son of the 1989 peace process´, and told the world that his election showed that Bogotanos ´had not fallen into the trap of the politics of hate and of the eternal war, but instead had said yes to reconciliation and yes to peace´.
President Santos was quick to congratulate Petro, and offer him a way of working with his government. Santos pointed to Petro as an example to guerrillas, demobilise and join us, he said. But he also showed how Petro´s politics can help deliver the President´s agenda. The two will work together to deliver the land reform which will give back to the displaced poor territory stolen from them during the years of conflict. Petro has moved to the centre, but he has also moved the centre to the left.
So what of the rest of the left in Colombia? Polo Democrat tanks have historically occupied the left-wing lawn. The party is, however, in disarray in the aftermath of the Samuel Moreno scandal and following a poor showing in the elections last Sunday. Petro has signalled intent – his Progressives movement is now in his words ´the biggest political force in Bogota´. There can be little doubt that Petro will seek to exploit his victory, claiming the Polo Democrat territory as his own. In Petro´s victory speech he spoke of the future ín which his party ´would transform into a national movement to construct a more democratic Colombia, a movement to build the 21 century (in the country)´. There is already talk of one time presidential candidate Antanas Mockus joining the group, and this website would not rule out many Green voters flocking to express their support.
Colombia is a country in which the opposition has historically been weak. The government and the president enjoy a concentrated power. Petro looks to be creating the base from which a healthy opposition can grow. The left must now seize this opportunity, modernise and move to the centre. Petro´s victory changed Colombian politics – he was the first ex-guerrilla to take control of Bogotá. But perhaps the biggest change will be seen in the formation of a new, democratic left.
Latin American countries too often fall into the trap of electing populist, socialist extremists like Chavez in Venezuela and Correa in Ecuador. Frustration at a lack of alternative to the right-wing is often to blame. Petro and his new movement should help to offer Colombians at least a way of voting left without enduring the whims of the revolutionaries.