#Polo Democrats

They´re coming for your vote. Quick, hibernate while you can

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If a week´s a long time in politics, then the 12 months of 2013 will feel like an eternity.

There is little doubt that this will be a pivotal period for Colombian politics and for Colombian society as peace talks conclude and pre-election fever grows.

But as much as the coming months have the potential to bring real change, they will also be a time of excruciating déjà vu. From now on we should expect campaign pledges, slogans, and brutal attacks on broken promises to be parroted with nauseating regularity.

I suspect you might already be bored of the president v ex-president phony war, the steady drum beat of which began within months of the Santos administration´s inauguration.

Well, prepare for the real ennui to set in. It has been all but confirmed (as this goes to print) that Uribe will head up a list of candidates for the senate, and that Uribismo, will fight to return to the Capitolio. The warring tribes have gathered.

So, if you thought the Santos Uribe fight had already polarized the nation, the best/worst is not yet upon us.

In a sign of things to come, rumours suggest that the president will bring forward a political reform bill when congress returns in March. The sole purpose of this reform as La Silla Vacia puts it to “put a break on Uribe´s aspirations (for power in 2014)”.

Unfortunately for Uribe this is an asymmetric war. He has very little bureaucratic armoury at his disposal to defend against the Santos´ incursions; he will have to rely on his hyperactive Twitter account to do much of the attack work.

Away from Uribe and Santos, the steady attrition of government ministers will continue as key figures like Bogotá´s own Germán Vargas Lleras (housing minister), Gina Parody (Santos´ top adviser for the capital), and David Luna (vice-minister in the labour department) resign to fight for senate seats.

Colombia´s constitution ensures the separation of powers between the executive and the legislature (at least on paper) by preventing ministers from “politicking” or campaigning while in office (or within a year of being so). As a result, those wishing to seek parliamentary spots must get out of government in good time.

With each new resignation, speculation will grow about new alliances, mergers, and party separations. Colombia´s institutionally weak political parties means there are plenty who will jump sinking ships.

The truth is this lack of serious party organization means voters are often left with little idea as to either what their politicians stand for, or for which grouping they are running. Farcical? Perhaps a little.

New presidential candidates will also emerge.

On the right, we already know that former Defence Minister, Marta Lucía Ramírez is keen to represent the Conservatives – possibly in alliance with Uribe´s Centro Democratico movement.

On the left, former Bogotá caretaker mayor, Clara López will stand for the Polo Democratic Alternative, but it is unclear whether an alliance can be forged with (unlikely) or against (marginally more likely) Navarro Wolff´s centre-left block (Pedimos la Palabra)?

And as the peace talks draw – hopefully – to a positive conclusion, how will the demobilized FARC be incorporated in the political set up, will they join Piedad Córdoba´s Marcha Patriotica, will there be FARC endorsed candidates for the congress?

The endless speculation, the moves around the chess board are sometimes enthralling for political commentators, but for the public it´s usually an entirely unedifying spectacle. All this speaks to total voter turn off by the time of the elections next year.

Part of the problem with Colombia´s democracy is that the politicians themselves often fail to communicate or – even worse – even to establish a policy platform from which to do battle for votes.

The idea of a detailed election manifesto so common in more participative democracies appears almost alien here. Instead, we´re reduced to a game of policy vacuumed personality politics.

The result is that during election and pre-election cycles in particular, the media concentrates on the superficial, the flotsam and jetsam, as King Lear sniffed, “who loses and who wins; who’s in, who’s out”.

If this telenovela politics is not your thing, 2013 should be a year of hibernation because try as you might, you will not be able to ignore or switch it off.

This article first appeared in The City Paper.

Petro showing “mental confusion”: Polo Democrats´ Suarez

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A key member the Polo Democratic Alternative Party (PDA) moved to further distance the party from Bogota’s controversial mayor Gustavo Petro and his administration on Sunday in an interview with El Espectador.

Aurelio Suarez, a former Bogotá mayoral candidate for the party who stood against Petro in 2011, said a prominent reason for the setbacks the Petro administration has suffered in its first year in office are due to the “mental confusion” of the mayor. He claimed that Petro “doesn’t know what he wants and what he can do in the existing institutional framework to advance programmes”.

Suarez emphasised that the Petro administration had an “incredible capacity to do unreasonable things” and that fundamental elements of the administration “cannot be categorised as of the left”. He cited the administration’s support for public-private partnerships as evidence of this, as well as criticising the introduction of a number of new taxes in the city since Petro came to power in 2011.

Suarez’s comments reveal a fear of the PDA that as a party of the Left they risk being associated with the incompetence and controversy that surrounds the Petro regime. Indeed, they point to a broader problem that the Left faces in Colombia in that parties pitching for a more moderate position are often associated in with the array of extreme elements that exist in the country. Petro himself used to belong to the PDA but left under a cloud when the party decided – in certain measure – to stick by the then disgraced Bogotá mayor, Samuel Moreno. Petro has since set up his own party, the Progressives, but as Suarez admitted in the interview, sections of the society still link Petro back to the PDA.

The PDA face a fight for survival at the congressional elections next year. Although their senate list leader is the popular Jorge Enrique Robledo, there is a real possibility that the party will not reach the appropriate percentage of the national vote to secure seats in the parliament. Clara López, recently confirmed as the party´s presidential candidate in 2014, has a job to do to position the PDA in a packed field, and to present a reasonable and voting winning face of the left. Any association with the hugely unpopular Petro must be avoided at all costs.

With old friends like these….

Colombia’s longest election campaign

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Colombian politics in 2013 will be defined by electioneering and very little politics according to the noises this week from within the U, Conservative, Cambio Radical and Polo Democrats parties.

With over a year to go before polls open for the presidential and congressional elections it appears Colombia is to endure one of the longest election campaigns in her history.

Presidential re-elections are new to Colombian democracy, following a change to the constitution to permit Alvaro Uribe a second term in 2006. The immaturity shows as the nation’s political class – media and politicians alike – are all too readily falling into the trap of allowing talk of Juan Manuel Santos’ possible tilt at another four years in the top job to marginalize coverage and consideration of policy.

It was ever thus in a democracy? Perhaps so.

But take for example the new year message from Conservative Party leader, Efrain Cepeda. According to El Tiempo newspaper, Cepeda in conversation about the content of the party’s national convention, revealed “we’ll start internal consultation on whether to support the president’s re-election campaign”, the convention will be “purely programmatic”.

Depressing that the leader should admit to a lack of appetite to set out a political and ideological programme for government – surely it is not enough that the Conservative Party appears to be defined only by its support or otherwise of the president. For voters to put their X in the box against the Blues’ candidates, a reason must be presented for them to do so.

Senator Aurelio Iragorri, a co-president of the U Party (on whose platform Santos was elected in 2010) likewise indicated the principal challenges for 2013 will be to define support for the president and to “consolidate” and mobilize “our mayor, governors and regional directors” – in other words, oil the party machine. Far enough, perhaps for this party of government, but it must – as with the Conservatives – work to present a prospectus to the nation. That must come first, party organization second.

Meanwhile, the direction of Cambio Radical will be defined by the moves of their leader, Housing Minster German Vargas Lleras. Like the Conservatives and the U Party, Cambio Radical are within Santos’ coalition government – and it is virtually impossible (ditto for the Liberal Party) to see them not supporting the president’s campaign. Their consideration will be how they work or don’t work with the Liberal Party and whether Vargas Lleras resigns from his government post to head up the party’s list for the senate. Again – it’s difficult to see how the overriding consideration will be anything other than organization.

At least Clara Lopez, the Polo Democrats’ presidential candidate has indicated a willingness to engage and “present a programme” to the electorate. But the Polo are an opposition party so it’s more than obvious that they will continue to present an alternative vision. Paradoxically, it is precisely the Polo who should be focusing on internal structures – the party is in some disarray and – due to law changes moving the threshold for representation up from 2 to 3% of the vote – could wind up extinct in 2014, with no parliamentarians returned to the Capitolio.

The media have a role to play in widening the debate, but there is precious little indication they will do so. After all, it’s easier for them to focus on the soap opera of (to paraphrase from King Lear), who’s in and who’s out, who’s up and who’s down. Personality is always cheaper and easier to cover than the politics.

Colombia Politics is by no means immune to this either.

Despite this, we should expect Santos himself to focus on what defines him, what makes him a re-electable candidate. In his new year message, the president chose to focus precisely on the area where he knows his opponents will try to hit him – on security. While in Cali, Santos listed his government’s achievements in bringing down the homicide rate, of taking out 25 of the FARC’s top militants, and the killing or capturing of all the leaders of the so-called BACRIM criminal groups. Santos’ message is that – yes, he is continuing Uribe’s tough stance – but that he is doing it his own way. Colombia Politics expects Santos will be bold over the coming year and present a policy platform that is both tough and liberal – the archetypal “Third Way” of which he is so enamoured.

As Santos sets out his vision, however, congressmen concerned with securing their own re-election and future roles in government will hedge their bets, and calculate whether to throw their support behind Santos or to position themselves elsewhere – depending on the prevailing wind.

Ideology is often lost to the political gene of self-preservation.

Gustavo Petro, a political biography

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Gustavo Petro is perhaps Colombia’s most vocal, visible and determinedly anti-establishment politician. From his youth onwards, Petro has made a political career of denouncing and preventing the Colombian establishment’s power abuses, constantly challenging the status-quo.

Petro, elected Bogotá mayor in 2011, was born in rural Ciénaga de Oro, Cordoba department, in 1960. His early childhood was humble and rural; both his parents were poor farmers.

Seeking a better future, Petro’s family decided to migrate to the more prosperous Colombian inland village of Zipaquirá – just north of Bogotá during the 1970’s. It was there, that Petro finished high school at Colegio Nacional de La Salle (the same school attended by Colombian Nobel laureate Gabriel García Márquez).

After graduation, and aged 17, Petro joined the political arm of the rebel armed group M-19. Petro, like his comrades, was reacting to the supposed fraudulent victory of Misael Pastrana over Gustavo Rojas Pinilla in the 1970 presidential election.

As a member of M-19, Petro quickly established a profile as a prominent and intellectual politico. Petro used the different political posts he went on to occupy in Zipaquirá to position himself as a daring and different leader, giving milk bottles to the poor, and leading the initiative to see refugees displaced by violence occupying wealthy landowners’ properties.

Petro has been historically attached to M-19’s well-known acts of violence (including much publicized kidnappings), and the infamous Palace of Justice Seige (Toma al Palacio de Justicia). This siege with its large number of casualties, disappearances, and resulting impunity for the perpetrators has become one of Colombia’s most emblematic tragedies.

After the siege, Petro used his influence within M-19 to promote peace talks with the government, helping to bring about the eventual dismantling of M-19 in 1990, and the subsequent amnesty for its members.

After full re-incorporation into civilian life, Petro was elected representative for Cundinamarca in 1991. He was then a member of the Alianza Democrática M-19 party.

Three years later, Petro was appointed as to a diplomatic role in Belgium, under the Samper administration.  The continuous death threats he received were an influential factor in his accepting the diplomatic post.

Back in Colombia, and after an ill-fated attempt in the 1996 Bogotá mayoral election, Petro was once again elected representative in 1998. This time for the Bogotá constituency.  It was during this second term in Congress, that Petro began to establish a reputation for being a thorn in the side of the Colombian political establishment.

His first cause was whistle-blowing dodgy funding of politicians’ election campaigns (a theme he would return to in later years). He was also recognized for exposing corruption scandals involving private banks, as well as the infamous case of the public hospital, San Juan de Dios.

In 2002, Petro was re-elected as a representative, with the highest number of votes received by any candidate in that election. Furthermore, it was during that term in office that Petro’s popularity catapulted, mainly for exposing notorious corruption scandals concerning ex-president Alvaro Uribe’s political allies.

Petro’s political opposition to Uribe’s 2002-2006 term in office was fierce. Perhaps his most celebrated act was uncovering the Parapolítica scandal that shocked the nation, and the international community alike (Parapolitics referred to the covert alliance between terrorist paramilitary organizations and politicians and public servants). Petro also campaigned hard against Uribe’s constitutional reform in favor of presidential re-election.

During 2005, Petro joined forces with a large number of opposition politicians to form the, then new, Polo Democrático Alternativo (PDA) party. By 2006, the party, along with Petro, had won popular support and recognition. Petro easily secured the jump from representative to senator in the 2006 congressional elections.

Once again, Petro stood out for his unrelenting opposition to Alvaro Uribe’s policies. As Petro grew his reputation at the national level, as well as inside his own party, his first presidential candidacy (2010) began to take shape.

His campaigning intentions crystalized when he beat traditional left strongman Carlos Gaviria for the PDA presidential nomination – Gaviria had been a previous presidential candidate for the left and Petro’s emergence was a surprise for some.

Petro’s 2010 campaign ended after he finished third behind current president Juan Manuel Santos and wildcard Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus.

After his failed presidential endeavor, Petro focused on Bogotá. He began by denouncing the public contracting of fellow PDA party members Samuel Moreno (then Bogotá mayor) and his brother Senator Ivan Moreno. Scandal ensued, and thanks to Petro, citizens realized the true magnitude of corruption.

Inside the PDA, the situation became untenable, and Petro decided to opt out and form his own party, Progresistas. Running, for Progresistas Petro won the 2011 Bogotá mayoral election defeating Enrique Peńalosa and Gina Parody.

As the current mayor of Bogotá, it seems that now it is Petro’s turn to face aggressive opposition. He has been accused of improvisation in policy (particularly public sanitation), and a lack of management skills, and experience. Petro’s political life has been in opposition, and his critics suggest he has been unable to adapt to the rigors of administration.

Petro has responded to this criticism with the claim he is persecuted by mafias – the term he uses to describe establishment interests. Petro argues these mafia are seeking to sabotage his term as Bogotá mayor in order to minimize his chances for a future presidency.

Petro’s character has earned him a reputation for being stubborn and arrogant; however it is also precisely this character that has led him to face down the most powerful groups in Colombian politics, despite constant death threats. Petro’s determined attachment to legality (after being granted amnesty) is also well known, not only from his constant attacks on corruption, but also from his many rejections of bribery proposals.

A year into his mayoralty, Petro continues to polarize opinion. The vast majority of the Bogotá electorate are against his administration, but he has a fiercely loyal core support.

Colombia opposition party choose presidential candidate to fight Santos

López, the best choice? Photo, Nuevo Siglo

Colombian opposition party Polo Democratic Alternative (PDA) will this weekend choose its candidate to fight the 2014 presidential elections against an almost certain to run for re-election President Juan Manuel Santos.

The PDA´s national congress, the third of its kind, begins tomorrow and under discussion is not only party policy, but also who will lead the group into the forthcoming elections. Two big names are expected to go forward as possible candidates, Jorge Enrique Robledo, and Clara López.

Robledo has the star appeal; his polemic and permanent campaigning style make him a hero for many on the left. Colombia Politics profiled this senator last month and has long tipped him has a potential presidential candidate.

In 2010, Robledo became the second most voted for senator, behind the U Party´s Juan Lozano. He is one of the most visible senators and has been a fierce critic of the neo-liberalism of the Uribe and Santos regimes. In a poll of influential thought leaders released today, Robledo was labelled the best performing senator.

Whether you agree with his politics or not, Robledo is the undisputed opposition heavy weight in Congress. His campaigns have been as diverse as they have been full-bloodedly fought. Last year he became the darling of the student movement, attacking the Santos administration´s education reform bill (which was eventually ditched because of the level and organization of opposition). This year he has taken on the implementation of the land restitution law, stood as the loudest voice against the free trade agreement with the USA, and has lampooning the government´s tax reform legislation currently before lawmakers.

Clara López is less polemic and less obviously a campaigning figure. The current director of the PDA party, López won credit for her work as the caretaker Mayor of Bogotá last year. López stepped in following the deposition of Samuel Moreno (who faced corruption charges) and was widely recognized as a successful administrator, in stark contrast to current Mayor and former Polo presidential candidate, Gustavo Petro.

This website has previously argued that Clara López represents the PDA´s best electoral hope.  For us, López´s measured style and her greater appeal to those closer to the political centre, means she has a higher chance of gathering in votes from a wider cross-section of society. It is difficult to see how Robledo would appeal (electorally speaking) to anyone other than a committed socialist. Fine if the PDA are content to languish in the polls.

López is without doubt a left-winger, but she scares away fewer voters than does Robledo. Colombia is not a left-wing country, but some 30% of the electorate is said to be prepared to vote for a candidate of this colour. Were López able to present a more centrist platform then this figure could well move north.

The problem for the Colombian left is that it has become fractured and disparate. Petro´s Progressives party and Piedad Córdoba´s far left Marcha Patriotica movement could well split the vote, leaving the PDA with precious little representation in Congress. It has even been predicted that unless the PDA run a successful election campaign they could struggle to return any politicians to the Capitolio in 2014.

The Santos administration controls over 90% of Colombia´s Congress leaving the PDA as the only real and organized opposition to the government. A PDA presence in Congress is important for the health of the nation´s democracy.

Despite disastrous regional elections last year, and a series of high-profile departures and splits since the last congressional elections in 2010, the PDA, with the right candidate will try to position itself as only viable alternative to the centre centre-right politics of the status quo.

Will the PDA choose wisely?

 

Jorge Enrique Robledo profile

Jorge Enrique Robledo, photo Semana

 

Jorge Enrique Robledo Castillo is one of the most visible politicians in the land. A hard left, trade-unionist and anti-free trade agreement polemicist, Robledo is a hero for many who oppose the “neo-liberalism” of recent Colombian governments.

In 2010 he was re-elected to the senate with the third highest number of votes of all candidates, and is, electorally, the number one member of the main opposition party, the Polo Democratic Alternative.

Last year, Robledo became the darling of the student movement, leading the opposition to the Santos Government´s proposed higher education reforms.

Vocal, charismatic and instantly recognizable, Robledo is not afraid to act as a lone voice in a political system he himself labels a tyrannically “unanimous” in its subservience to the president.

A frequent contributor to the top political debate programme, Hora 20, on Caracol Radio, Robledo has star quality, and the integrity of his arguments make him popular even among those who do not share his views.

Robledo was born in Ibagué in 1950, graduated from the top private Universidad de los Andes, and went on to teach at the public Universidad Nacional. While at university, Robledo joined the left-wing MOIR movement, and formed close ties with trade unionists. Perhaps as a result of his debating style, many assume he is a lawyer, but this Caldense is in fact an architect.

Robledo move from Ibagué to Manizales (Caldas), where he worked for organizations representing small coffee farm owners and workers.  These campaigns allowed him to build a base of support.

From this platform, Robledo launched his campaign to become Governor in 1997, a race he lost against the powerful coalition of Liberal and Conservatives. Robledo did not stand a chance, but came a respectable second, securing over 50 000 votes, a third of those obtained by the eventual winner.

In 2002, Robledo stood in the elections to the Senate, for which, with the backing of MOIR, he managed to win 45,000 votes, taking him for the first time to the Capitolio.

Robledo soon rose to prominence with his forthright views and his terrier-like debating style. Using this profile, Robledo became the voice of the unions, of agricultural organizations and other leftist movements, and cast himself as the opposition the free trade agreements proposed first be Uribe and later by Santos.

In 2006, Robledo joined the Polo Democratic Alternative (PDA), bringing together a collection of hitherto disparate leftist blocks. In the Senate race that year he won 80,000 votes, coming second only to Gustavo Petro in the terms of popularity within the PDA.

Throughout the 2006-10 parliament, Robledo, like Petro, became associated (perhaps too much so, and to the detriment of his other positions) with his fierce criticism of Uribe.

In 2009, the inspector general, Alejandro Ordóñez opened a case against the Senator for alleged ties with the FARC.  Robledo had been mentioned in files on the infamous computer of Raul Reyes (the FARC´s top military commander) which was analyzed following his death in Ecuador, 2008. Robledo denies the links, arguing that the information on the computer was hearsay and did not in any way incriminate him.

Following Robledo´s re-election in 2010, with twice the number of votes in the 2006 elections, he has continued his fight against the government and what he considers to be the unchecked capitalism of its politics.

This Senator is one of Colombia´s top tweeters, giving Uribe a run for his money, and is known for his permanent campaigning style.

Robledo is firmly positioned one the left, very seldom (if ever) venturing towards the centre ground – meaning he stands little chance of being a serious presidential candidate, were he to want to put himself forward.

However, Robledo´s role in Colombian politics is crucial. His opposition, like that of Petro´s during Uribe´s second term, is important for the democratic scrutiny of a Santos administration that controls over 90% of Congress.

Robledo´s opposition is not restricted to those on the centre, or the right, however. He has also been a critic of his old comrade, Gustavo Petro, the current Mayor of Bogotá, whom he accuses of presiding over a crisis in transport in the city.

Whether you are for or against his politics, Robledo is never dull, and is certainly one to watch.

Lopez evicts Communists from Polo Democracts

Communists march in Bogotá

Communist FARC sympathisers were this week kicked out of Colombia’s main opposition party, the  Democratic Pole (PDA) by leader Clara López.

Using the news that the Communist Party are to join forces with Piedad Córdoba’s controversial Marcha Patriótica which is accused of being the political front for the guerrilla group, López has acted swiftly to purge extremists and to halt the Polo’s drift to the far-left.

Communist Party Leader, Carlos Lozano has of course reacted with indignation, labelling López’s moves ‘illegal’. But after a disastrous month for the left in which it has lost the support of large sections of society following its public support for Hugo Chávez’s re-election in Venezuela, and for appearing to side with indigenous groups over the army during the attacks in Cauca, López might just have saved her party from obliteration.

Polo – a party in perpetual revolution?

The PDA was formed in 2005 as a left-wing alternative to the centre and right-wing politics that predominate in Colombia. As a conglomeration of groups and movements from across the left, the party has always appeared pluralist and has tended to splits and vacillation on policy decisions. Electorally, success has been evident if not overwhelming.

The highlights have been the election of Samuel Moreno as Mayor of Bogota in 2007, and also in the capture of the department of Nariño from where governor Antonio Navarro Wolf has become one of the country’s most recognisable opposition politicians. In congress there are eight senators and five representatives in the second chamber, and in the presidential elections of 2010, the Polo’s candidate, Gustavo Petro came a very respectable fourth.

But the PDA is in perpetual crisis. Unable to stick together after the elections of 2010, the party lost its main star performer, Petro, who, in protest at the lack of will to tackle the corruption within the group, set up his own party, the Progressives with whom he won the Bogota mayoral election last year. Support for the left has been split and natural Polo voters have been leaving in droves to support Petro’s Progressives – crucially  three senators made the same journey last month.

In January, Clara López returned to lead the party following a successful stint as the caretaker mayor of Bogota. Her job is to prepare PDA for the elections in 2014, to establish a credible policy platform and to strengthen the unity and party machine ahead of the campaign.

The left’s opportunity

This website has argued that the PDA need to unite and move towards the centre, to gain a level of elect-ability. López herself has performed well, but her party appears determined to implode.

Last month this website reported on the study commissioned by the left-wing think tank, Nuevo Arco Iris which revealed that around a third of the Colombian electorate is prepared to vote for a presidential candidate from the left. In theory – found the report – with a likeable, centrist figure capable of uniting the entire movement there is an outside chance of victory. For me victory is out of reach, but a respectable second and a place in the run-off is a possibility.

The PDA ought to use this once-in-a-generation-opportunity to pull together. The imperative is to establish a narrative based on a series of attractive policies that can be sold to the majority of Colombians who are not attracted by the far-left statism that typifies Latin American socialism. The problem for the party is that it is doing precisely the opposite.

Pushing the self-destruction button?

Last month the PDA came out publicly in support of Hugo Chávez’s re-election campaign. Chávez is loathed in Colombia for his support for the FARC and his resulting complicity in the murder of thousands of Colombians. For a political party that wants to win an election, lending support to ‘enemy number one’ for millions of compatriots is naive and self-indulgent.

López is not naive, though. She understood that the seriousness of PDA was beginning to be questioned – that arresting this decline in support as become a political necessity.

The announcement from the Communist group within the PDA that it was join the Marcha Patriótica is therefore manna from heaven. By expelling the group, López shows the doubters that she will not tolerate hardliners in her ranks. The Communists departure was explained to be a legal decision (in Colombia politicians can’t represent two parties) rather than a once taken on ideological grounds. Most people will, however, read between the lines.

Make no mistake, any link with the Marcha Patriótica would have been electorally fatal for the PDA. The movement is headed by Piedad Córdoba the famous face of the far-left who was thrown out of the parliament in 2010 for her alleged links with the FARC. Córdoba is for many in Colombia a figure of hate – a mouthpiece for the guerrillas.

Last month videos emerged of the ex-senator inciting indigenous communities to rise up against the government and throw out the army. Days after Córdoba’s speech, indigenous groups attacked and threatened the army who were engaged in combat with the FARC in the department of Cauca. Colombians doubted this was coincidental.

For many in the country, including the Defence Minister, Pinzón, the Marcha Patriótica is the political wing of the guerrilla group. In Cartagena last week, Pinzón confirmed that the Marcha is ‘financed in good part by the terrorist organisation the FARC’.

There is much work that must be done if the Democratic Pole is to regain political credibility. López has saved it – for now – from destruction, but she must continue to fight to marginalise those with a socialist vision for Colombia. The PDA’s eventual programme for government must be moderate and based on change rather than revolution.

The question is whether the left care about winning or whether they want to remain on the fringes of power – the smart money appears to be on the latter.

Left-wing López capable of a Colombian presidential ‘coup’?

Resounding electoral success is not a phrase often used to describe the Colombian left; unsurprising in a country that has endured 50 years of war against Communist insurgents.

If recent polls are right, however, the presidential elections of 2014 are a once in a generation opportunity to redraw the political map. A third of voters appear set to vote left-wing while the right will be split between a Uribe-backed-horse and President Santos.

If a candidate can be found to unite the left, and appeal to those in the centre, then victory is a (very distant) possibility – well that´s what they´d like you to believe, of course. There are many names in the frame but only one that appeals – Clara López, President of the Polo Democratic Alternative party. The grandstanding polemicists must now give way and let López, a serious politician with real experience, have a shot at the Casa de Nariño.

A divided left?

Gustavo Petro, the Mayor of Bogota, is the left-winger with the most power in Colombia. His position is the second most important in the country, and despite his militancy with the old guerrilla group M-19 he was able to win over a sufficient number of middle and upper income voters to take control of the city in November. His mandate began in January and has been – so far – underwhelming.

In an earlier article published on this website Petro’s approach to winning the election – against the establishment candidate, Enrique Peñalosa – was examined and proposed as a blueprint for the left in future elections. Petro, originally seen as a firebrand who scared away any voter not ideologically tied to his brand of socialism, moderated his style and shifted the focus of his speeches on to the centre ground.

Unfortunately for Bogota this strategy was forgotten as soon as he entered power; his regression to the left has alienated and polarised voters.

Petro is a lesson for the left – both in how to win elections and how (not) to remain in power once there.

Petro is also a warning to left-wingers to avoid the temptation towards internal warfare. The Polo Democratic Alternative party who supported Petro’s presidential campaign in 2010 were unable to unite around his candidature for the mayoralty of Bogota. Petro, in protest at the party’s refusal to condemn corrupt members, left the party to form his own movement, the Progresives.

The Progresives split the Polo vote. The movement, bruised by Petro’s denunciations and internal splits, went on to record catastrophic local election results in November last year. Had the party acted to clean up the corruption and used Petro as a figurehead nationally and in the capital, the results would no doubt have been quite different.

Petro is by no means the only important politician to have left the Polo. Luis Eduardo (“Lucho”) Garzón – a former Bogota Mayor – ditched the party to form the Greens, essentially a left-leaning party (despite being officially part of the Santos coalition government). The Greens have been electorally successful, most significantly gaining the governorship of Antioquia with Sergio Farjardo.

Another figure of the left is Piedad Córdoba, a controversial former senator who is accused of suspiciously close relationships with the FARC and with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. Córdoba, an excellent orator and former member of the Liberal Party, this year established her own movement, the far left, Marcha Patriotica.

The left in Colombia is riddled with factions – it must repair them to select a candidate capable of winning the presidency.

Alongside the personalisation of its politics there is another reason why the left in Colombia has failed to make electoral inroads. As Oscar Fernando Sevillano, writing for the Bogota think tank Corporación Arcoiris argues, the left have been ‘frustrated by the extreme right, the political elites in the regions, and parts of the military and the police have participated in their extermination’.

Remembering Gaitán, Galán, and Lara Bonilla, not to mention the hundreds of council candidates that over the years have been silenced, it is difficult to argue with Sevillano’s assessment. Sad then that news emerged this week of a planned attempt on Petro’s life.

The opportunity:

While the threats to the left of either internal annihilation or external assassination are not insignificant, the opportunity to make history is there. Leon Valencia, director of Nuevo Arcoiris in a comment piece for Semana heralded the results of the poll commissioned by his organisation in which it was revealed that 28% of voters would vote for a left-wing candidate.

According to Valencia, the poll is ‘a message of great hope’ for the leaders of the Colombian left. Should they ‘choose a single candidate who looks to the centre’ he ventures, ‘they have a chance of reaching the Palace of Nariño’.

Valencia went on to argue that with the split in the votes of those on the right – as a result of the fight between Uribe and Santos – there is every possibility that the candidate of the left could win through to the second round – the head-to-head. Valencia drew analogy to Petro’s victory in Bogotá, showing how a surprise candidate – in a crowded field – can sneak through the middle.

Choosing the candidate – Colombia’s ´Iron Lady´

The left have been successful in Bogota, it has been a long-held bastion of progressive thought. Many capital cities in the world are more left-wing than the rest of their nation. To win in 2014, the left needs to choose a candidate that can appeal not only to the liberal metropolitan elite, but also to the rural voters.Clara López – despite her Bogota credentials – is this person; a serious and respected voice of the moderate left. She has appeal across all sectors of Colombian society, and will not alienate or repel votes.

In January Clara López returned to the presidency of Polo following a highly successful period as the caretaker Mayor of Bogota. Having taken over from Samuel Moreno – who had been suspended on corruption charges – López succeeded in uniting the capital, governing from the centre, and vanquishing the ghosts of her predecessor’s regime. López’s reputation as safe pair of hands had been cemented – and she remains one of the few left-wing Colombians with real and tangible governing experience.

The appeal of Doctora López is based not only in her experience but also her character. Her image is not that of the prototype politician of the Latin American left. Cadenced rhetoric and polemical speeches about imperialist Yankees are not her style; she is a rolled-up-shirt-sleeve, no-nonsense politician. The tone of her discourse is serious and modest, the content realistic, not idealistic.

‘Colombia’s Iron Lady’  (as a Brit who grew up in the time of the real Iron Lady, I know one when I see one) often wears thick rimmed glasses, pins tightly back her hair and dresses seriously. She is more akin to head mistress of a posh British school than a gun-toting revolutionary.

Although aristocratic and formidable, although schooled overseas and an impeccable member of the governing class, López has never let the common touch evade her. The aloofness of oligarchical arrogance that Santos is accused (unfairly) of is not in evidence here.

Examining her closely, there is almost something Churchillian in her stare and in her determination to do what she believes is right. If the left wants a presidential candidate that will deliver blood sweat and tears, it should look no further.

Also published on redescolombia