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Mayor Gustavo Petro – the day that changed Colombian politics

Colombian politics have changed. For the first time in her history, a former guerrilla has become mayor of the capital city, Bogotá. But Gustavo Petro, once a militant in the M-19 swept to power not by the bullet, but by the ballot box. Over 32% of Bogotanos voted for the left-wing radical, 8% more than the establishment choice, Enrique Peñalosa.

It was unthinkable a few months ago, but Petro is now the second most powerful politician in Colombia.

How did Petro win, and what does it mean for Colombian politics?

As Colombia basked in the summer heat of June, former mayor Enrique Peñalosa appeared to be coasting to victory. It was almost certain that he would return to the mayoralty of Bogota after a 11 year absence. Peñalosa stood four years ago and lost – surprisingly – to Samuel Moreno, a mayor now shamed by a scandal that has shocked the nation, and has put Moreno in jail. Bogotanos would not make the same mistake twice it was thought; Peñalosa – a hugely successful mayor during his time in office – was just the man to rescue Bogotá from the inferno of Moreno´s mandate.

In a move designed to shore up Peñalosa´s support, and push him over the finishing line, ex-President Alvaro Uribe had joined the campaign earlier in the year. Uribe left office last year as the most popular president in Colombia´s history. A Uribe Penalosa ticket had been thought to be invincible. But public opinion is divided on Uribe. He is – for some – the nation´s savour, having brought the FARC to its knees. Others though point to what they see as corruption on a massive scale during his time in office. Rightly or wrongly, Uribe is now a divisive figure for sections of Colombian society.

Uribe´s support for Peñalosa caused much soul-searching within the Green Party (on whose platform Peñalosa was standing). Antanas Mockus (the Green Party´s presidential candidate in 2010), and one of Uribe´s fiercest critics, left the party to stand as an independent – against Peñalosa.

As the summer sun intensified, so did the competition. Gustavo Petro had now left the Polo Democratic party on whose platform he had stood in the presidential elections, to form his own, independent progessive movement.

Petro´s move was shrewd. By this point Mayor Samuel Moreno had been suspended from office, and was forced to stand trial for alleged corruption in the process of awarding contracts for Bogota´s infrastructure works. Petro knew that if he were to stand on the Polo platform he would be tarred with the brush that brought about Moreno´s denouement. He left and promptly stood on a whiter than white, anti-corruption platform.

The collective he accused of refusing to deal adequately with the Moreno corruption scandal elected their own candidate to run for office, but the majority of Polo´s natural voters stuck with Petro.

The polls continued consistently to show strong support for Peñalosa. But while in June he had enjoyed a ten per cent lead over the nearest candidate, Gina Parody, by September the race had narrowed and there were three horses in the race. By this time it had become clear that Mockus was failing to make a major impact and as a result joined forces with Parody. Parody´s support rose and she became a serious contender. But it was Petro´s candidature, however, that was beginning to make waves. He quickly moved from also ran to serious challenger, with some polls showing him in the lead while others put him a close second, behind Peñalosa.

With only a week to go until polling day, however, the race was still neck and neck, between Petro and Peñalosa. The city´s voters were set to deliver a technical draw. But, with days to go, Petro broke free, his support swelling – as votes ebbed away from the many also ran candidates – and polls on the eve of the election showed the 8 and 9% lead which eventually became the reality on Sunday night as the voting booths shut.

It was a dramatic end to a campaign that owed more to opinion polls than to policies. Peñalosa, the favourite from the outset had been beaten by Petro the outsider – a plucky tortoise who outran the dead cert hare.

Why did voters, eventually put their faith in Petro? There are three overriding reasons:

Petro represents change. He presents himself as a political outsider in a country in which the political elite is a closed group – where governors, senators and presidents are taken from the same (often family) stock. Bogotá needed to make a break from the past, from Moreno.

Petro has positioned himself as the anti-corruption candidate. Colombia has been shocked by the scandals at the heart of current mayor Samuel Moreno’s administration. By leaving the Polo Democrats, Petro was able to cast himself as the white-knight candidate. It is also true that Petro has made his political career by uncovering and standing against corruption at the heart of the political system.

While Colombia is a right-wing country, Bogotá is a left-wing city. Colombians elected right-wing Alvaro Uribe as president between 2002 and 2010, but in Bogotá they elected left-wingers Luis Garzon in 2003 and Samuel Moreno in 2007. Petro will continue this trend.

It is also possible to point to the split in the centrist vote – Peñalosa would almost certainly have won if the field of candidates had been narrower.

What does Petro´s victory mean for Colombian politics?

This will depend on how Petro governs, of course. For the time-being it is a blow to the Green Party which must now be set for a period of cool and calm reflection. It is also a shot across the bows of the establishment parties. Peñalosa lost, despite the support of three parties in the national government´s coalition, the Conservatives, the U and the Greens. Petro won as an independent. Gina Parody came third as an independent. This website reported last month on the phenonomen of personality over party politics…Petro´s election accelerates this trend.

It is bad news for former president Alvaro Uribe. Not only did his candidate lose, but Petro a bitter opponent won.

The most important aspect of Petro´s win, however is the potential for it to act as a catalyst for the peace process. Petro is a former guerrilla. Although it is thought no bullet was fired by him in anger, he was nevertheless part of the intellectual arm of M-19. He demobilised in the 90s and began his legitimate political career. President Santos has been quick to point to Petro as an example of how former militants can be re-cast, rejoin and make a useful contribution to society. The history of conflict resolution – particularly in my own country, the UK – shows us that offering combatants a routemap back to useful civilian life can be a powerful tool.

For now those on the right in Colombia will be licking their wounds, those in Bogotá will be waiting anxiously to see how Petro performs, and those in the world of political commentary will be speculating whether one day this former guerrilla could become president.

Bogotá needs change, for this website Enrique Peñalosa represented the best choice before the electorate. But Petro won with a clear mandate. There is no doubting that Petro is an intellectual, and that he has fought for years against corruption. His victory is historic,  time will tell whether his period in office will be looked upon in the same way.

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Are Colombian politics turning left-wing?

Colombian politics have been dominated by the right-wing for more than a decade. But things appear to be changing – President Santos has re-calibrated the government, leftwards, and the polls point to big victories for left-wing candidates across the country in Sunday’s elections. Is Colombia, a traditional, conservative, and right-wing country starting to turn left-wing?

The electoral landscape

The Liberal Party expects to make significant gains when Colombians vote this weekend to elect their governors, mayors and local councillors. Important cities and departments across the country are predicted to fall into Liberal hands. At the same time, the Conservatives are talking down their chances – as they look set to lose big prize seats, like Antioquia and Boyaca.

But it is in the capital, Bogota where the biggest victory for the left is possible: Gustavo Petro a former left-wing guerrilla and old-fashioned socialist leads in the polls. Now it’s true that Bogota has a history of being more left-wing than the rest of the country.

But electing Petro the most left-wing of candidates on offer – in a field where the right is in the minority – would deliver a major blow to the establishment. The mayor of Bogota is the second most powerful political position in the country. A Petro mayoralty could turn into a major headache for the right.

Colombia – a right-wing country

Colombia is profoundly unlike her neighbours, Venezuela and Ecuador, both of whom have fallen into the hands of the socialist elective dictatorships of Hugo Chavez and Rafael Correa, respectively. Colombia on the other hand is conservative with a small but often also with a big C. A hegemony of free-market economical liberalism mixed with social conservativism has ruled since the 90s.

To understand just how much Colombia tends to the right, look no further than the fact that such free-market politics were brought in by a president (by party denomination at least) not of the right of the left; Cesar Gaviria.

Gaviria was followed into the Casa de Narino presidential palace by Ernesto Samper another Liberal president. Then came Andres Pastrana in 1998, a Conservative. But perhaps the real lurch to right came with Alvaro Uribe who ruled from 2002 to 2010. Uribe (despite being a former Liberal Party member) is an old-fashioned security first, authoritarian conservative.

During his rule, Colombia became the US’ closest ally in Latin America. Uribe’s policies loosened the stranglehold the FARC had on parts of the country, and Colombia started to benefit from Gaviria’s free-market policies as billions of dollars of foreign investment poured into the new, securer Colombia.

President Santos took office in August 2010 ostensibly as a right-winger – or at least that’s how it appeared to those who voted for him. Santos was Uribe’s candidate, elected on the U party platform (the party that formed to support Uribe’s second term in office). Before coming to power, Santos served as Uribe’s defence minister.

In this role he was a hard-liner, the very model of a strong conservative, famed for his excursions into Ecuadorean territory and his successful war against the FARC. Some in Colombia feared than once in power Santos would be even more right-wing than Uribe.

And yet, since forming his government, Santos has been ‘accused’ of being too left not right wing. In recent months there have been a string of complaints from Santos’ Conservative coalition partners, and from within the U party itself that the government has focused too much on delivering the policies on the Liberal wishlist, rather than pushing through the initiatives championed by the right.

The Santos coalition now represents over 90 per cent of Congress. It is a coalition of right, centre and left so pleasing all of the folk all of the time is a difficult task for Santos. But while Conservatives have voiced their disquiet, there has been precious little complaint from the Liberals since Santos took over; in fact quite the opposite.

The Liberal movement has been emboldened since Uribe left office. As reported last month on this site, there is talk of reuniting the Liberal movement, which split when members left either to join the U party in support of Uribe, or the Cambio Radical party which was formed by now Interior Minister Vargas Lleras in opposition to Uribe. The name in the frame to lead this newly reunited force? President Santos, of course.

Liberals are confident that popular support for Santos, and his association with the Liberals, will turn into electoral success. According to the Colombian publication Semana, Colombian House of Representatives President and Liberal, Simon Gaviria (yes his father is former president Cesar Gaviria) has claimed that the Liberal Party will become the biggest political force in the country following the elections.

Conservative Senator Hernan Andrade admitted to Semana that the Liberal Party could be seen a possible winner of the elections, but claimed that this was down to good party organisation, rather than the tacit support offered by President Santos to the candidates.

But tellingly Andrade did admit that the party felt more at home in the government of Uribe. The U party have not been as obvious as the Conservatives about any discomfort they may or may not feel – but this is not surprising given Santos is still ruling under the U banner (and because the U is composed of a significant number of former Liberals).

Under the eight years of Uribe rule, the Conservatives were the key power broker (alongside the U party). It is unsurprising that they lament this (perceived) loss of influence on the direction the Government takes. However, there is little evidence that Colombians themselves regret this shift leftwards – support for Santos remains high (around 80% according to some polls), and if the predictions turn out to be true, the Liberals will be returned to power in greater numbers.

Colombia remains a right-wing country. There is little danger of a left-wing take over – even if Petro sweeps to power. However, there is a subtle shift in direction – away from the right-wing policies of the last decade. Santos is himself not left-wing. He is an extreme centrist, and ultra pragmatist – Colombians appear to be enjoying that.

Category: Comment, Left wingers