Colombian politics in 2013 will be defined by electioneering and very little politics according to the noises this week from within the U, Conservative, Cambio Radical and Polo Democrats parties.
With over a year to go before polls open for the presidential and congressional elections it appears Colombia is to endure one of the longest election campaigns in her history.
Presidential re-elections are new to Colombian democracy, following a change to the constitution to permit Alvaro Uribe a second term in 2006. The immaturity shows as the nation’s political class – media and politicians alike – are all too readily falling into the trap of allowing talk of Juan Manuel Santos’ possible tilt at another four years in the top job to marginalize coverage and consideration of policy.
It was ever thus in a democracy? Perhaps so.
But take for example the new year message from Conservative Party leader, Efrain Cepeda. According to El Tiempo newspaper, Cepeda in conversation about the content of the party’s national convention, revealed “we’ll start internal consultation on whether to support the president’s re-election campaign”, the convention will be “purely programmatic”.
Depressing that the leader should admit to a lack of appetite to set out a political and ideological programme for government – surely it is not enough that the Conservative Party appears to be defined only by its support or otherwise of the president. For voters to put their X in the box against the Blues’ candidates, a reason must be presented for them to do so.
Senator Aurelio Iragorri, a co-president of the U Party (on whose platform Santos was elected in 2010) likewise indicated the principal challenges for 2013 will be to define support for the president and to “consolidate” and mobilize “our mayor, governors and regional directors” – in other words, oil the party machine. Far enough, perhaps for this party of government, but it must – as with the Conservatives – work to present a prospectus to the nation. That must come first, party organization second.
Meanwhile, the direction of Cambio Radical will be defined by the moves of their leader, Housing Minster German Vargas Lleras. Like the Conservatives and the U Party, Cambio Radical are within Santos’ coalition government – and it is virtually impossible (ditto for the Liberal Party) to see them not supporting the president’s campaign. Their consideration will be how they work or don’t work with the Liberal Party and whether Vargas Lleras resigns from his government post to head up the party’s list for the senate. Again – it’s difficult to see how the overriding consideration will be anything other than organization.
At least Clara Lopez, the Polo Democrats’ presidential candidate has indicated a willingness to engage and “present a programme” to the electorate. But the Polo are an opposition party so it’s more than obvious that they will continue to present an alternative vision. Paradoxically, it is precisely the Polo who should be focusing on internal structures – the party is in some disarray and – due to law changes moving the threshold for representation up from 2 to 3% of the vote – could wind up extinct in 2014, with no parliamentarians returned to the Capitolio.
The media have a role to play in widening the debate, but there is precious little indication they will do so. After all, it’s easier for them to focus on the soap opera of (to paraphrase from King Lear), who’s in and who’s out, who’s up and who’s down. Personality is always cheaper and easier to cover than the politics.
Colombia Politics is by no means immune to this either.
Despite this, we should expect Santos himself to focus on what defines him, what makes him a re-electable candidate. In his new year message, the president chose to focus precisely on the area where he knows his opponents will try to hit him – on security. While in Cali, Santos listed his government’s achievements in bringing down the homicide rate, of taking out 25 of the FARC’s top militants, and the killing or capturing of all the leaders of the so-called BACRIM criminal groups. Santos’ message is that – yes, he is continuing Uribe’s tough stance – but that he is doing it his own way. Colombia Politics expects Santos will be bold over the coming year and present a policy platform that is both tough and liberal – the archetypal “Third Way” of which he is so enamoured.
As Santos sets out his vision, however, congressmen concerned with securing their own re-election and future roles in government will hedge their bets, and calculate whether to throw their support behind Santos or to position themselves elsewhere – depending on the prevailing wind.
Ideology is often lost to the political gene of self-preservation.