#Conservatives

Colombia’s longest election campaign

candidatos-elecciones-colombia-2010

Colombian politics in 2013 will be defined by electioneering and very little politics according to the noises this week from within the U, Conservative, Cambio Radical and Polo Democrats parties.

With over a year to go before polls open for the presidential and congressional elections it appears Colombia is to endure one of the longest election campaigns in her history.

Presidential re-elections are new to Colombian democracy, following a change to the constitution to permit Alvaro Uribe a second term in 2006. The immaturity shows as the nation’s political class – media and politicians alike – are all too readily falling into the trap of allowing talk of Juan Manuel Santos’ possible tilt at another four years in the top job to marginalize coverage and consideration of policy.

It was ever thus in a democracy? Perhaps so.

But take for example the new year message from Conservative Party leader, Efrain Cepeda. According to El Tiempo newspaper, Cepeda in conversation about the content of the party’s national convention, revealed “we’ll start internal consultation on whether to support the president’s re-election campaign”, the convention will be “purely programmatic”.

Depressing that the leader should admit to a lack of appetite to set out a political and ideological programme for government – surely it is not enough that the Conservative Party appears to be defined only by its support or otherwise of the president. For voters to put their X in the box against the Blues’ candidates, a reason must be presented for them to do so.

Senator Aurelio Iragorri, a co-president of the U Party (on whose platform Santos was elected in 2010) likewise indicated the principal challenges for 2013 will be to define support for the president and to “consolidate” and mobilize “our mayor, governors and regional directors” – in other words, oil the party machine. Far enough, perhaps for this party of government, but it must – as with the Conservatives – work to present a prospectus to the nation. That must come first, party organization second.

Meanwhile, the direction of Cambio Radical will be defined by the moves of their leader, Housing Minster German Vargas Lleras. Like the Conservatives and the U Party, Cambio Radical are within Santos’ coalition government – and it is virtually impossible (ditto for the Liberal Party) to see them not supporting the president’s campaign. Their consideration will be how they work or don’t work with the Liberal Party and whether Vargas Lleras resigns from his government post to head up the party’s list for the senate. Again – it’s difficult to see how the overriding consideration will be anything other than organization.

At least Clara Lopez, the Polo Democrats’ presidential candidate has indicated a willingness to engage and “present a programme” to the electorate. But the Polo are an opposition party so it’s more than obvious that they will continue to present an alternative vision. Paradoxically, it is precisely the Polo who should be focusing on internal structures – the party is in some disarray and – due to law changes moving the threshold for representation up from 2 to 3% of the vote – could wind up extinct in 2014, with no parliamentarians returned to the Capitolio.

The media have a role to play in widening the debate, but there is precious little indication they will do so. After all, it’s easier for them to focus on the soap opera of (to paraphrase from King Lear), who’s in and who’s out, who’s up and who’s down. Personality is always cheaper and easier to cover than the politics.

Colombia Politics is by no means immune to this either.

Despite this, we should expect Santos himself to focus on what defines him, what makes him a re-electable candidate. In his new year message, the president chose to focus precisely on the area where he knows his opponents will try to hit him – on security. While in Cali, Santos listed his government’s achievements in bringing down the homicide rate, of taking out 25 of the FARC’s top militants, and the killing or capturing of all the leaders of the so-called BACRIM criminal groups. Santos’ message is that – yes, he is continuing Uribe’s tough stance – but that he is doing it his own way. Colombia Politics expects Santos will be bold over the coming year and present a policy platform that is both tough and liberal – the archetypal “Third Way” of which he is so enamoured.

As Santos sets out his vision, however, congressmen concerned with securing their own re-election and future roles in government will hedge their bets, and calculate whether to throw their support behind Santos or to position themselves elsewhere – depending on the prevailing wind.

Ideology is often lost to the political gene of self-preservation.

Colombian Senator condemns homosexuality

Colombia´s veteran Conservative Senator Roberto Gerlein branded male gay sex as “dirty, filthy and excremental” during today´s debate in Congress over proposals to permit same-sex civil unions.

Gerlein`s astonishing comments underscored the Colombian Conservative Party’s opposition to same-sex marriage, which they believe will fundamentally alter Colombian society and will undermine the constitution’s definition of marriage (between a man and a woman).

During a twenty minute tirade Senator Gerlein appeared to make claims against homosexuality on the basis of both science and religion, proclaiming that homosexuals are “born with a smaller hypothalamus” and that “God said to Adam and Eve go forth and multiply; if society was mostly homosexuals then the planet would be barren”.

He added that though they don’t deserve the rejection of society because of their “condition”, they should not be permitted to marry, as homosexuality was “unnatural”.

U Party Senator Armando Benedetti, who drew up the legislation, condemned Gerlein’s attack as “discriminatory” and “xenophobic”. The debate on the proposals to allow same-sex marriage was adjourned amid anger from senators supporting the legislation and will reconvene next week.

Gay rights have progressed relatively slowly in traditionally Catholic Colombia since homosexuality was legalised in 1980.

Despite this, in 2007 and 2008 the constitutional court awarded same-sex couples property, inheritance and social security rights in line with those of heterosexuals, and last year legislation was passed in Congress to criminalize discrimination based on sexuality.

For Benedetti`s proposals to make it into law they must be passed by June 2013.

Senator Álvaro Uribe 2014-18?

Uribe, as president.

Colombia´s Ex-President Álvaro Uribe Vélez is expected within weeks to announce his candidature for the Senate elections 2014 setting up a certain return to front line politics in opposition to his former Defence Minister, President Juan Manuel Santos.

Uribe is said to be compiling a list of candidates, ready to campaign from as early as January. A poll by Cifras y Conceptos showed that, were Uribe to head up this group, 55% of urban voters would turn out in support of him.  Uribe´s support is traditionally even higher in rural Colombia.

The ex-president´s popularity is not restricted to the electorate, however, and he enjoys loyal support from many within the Congress.

Over the coming months we will see a battle for hearts and minds as Uribe seeks to wrest politicians from Santos´ National Unity Coalition government.

Former Conservative Presidential hopeful , Noemí Sanin has already signalled that “a good part of the Conservative Party” will join the Uribe ranks, and noise grows within the U Party about possible defections.

U Party Senators Juan Carlos Vélez Uribe, and Carlos Enrique Soto are dead certs to join Uribe, but Santos is working to prevent further departures, using the powers of presidential patronage to temp waverers to stay with him.

Last month at the general assembly of the U Party, (which supported Uribe when in government and is also the party of President Santos), Uribe lobbied hard to suck support away from the government and encourage sympathizers to join his troops.

Santos defiantly stood his ground, however, and the U Party hierarchy backed him to the hilt.

Despite officially still belonging to the U, Uribe´s relationship with the party is now unclear. Earlier this year a new political movement Puro Centro Democratico was launched as the vehicle to support a return of Uribismo to the Capitolio, but it is not certain that Uribe´s senate list will go under this name.

There are some, like Juan Carlos Vélez who suggest the U Party could support the Uribe campaign. For the time being this idea appears far-fetched unless the president were to jump ship (to join the Liberals – something difficult to countenance this side of an election, of course).

So, although U Party activists remain, in significant numbers, more aligned to Uribe than to Santos, the parliamentary party is with the president.

Assuming Uribe does announce his candidature in the new year, rumours suggest the list of candidates could mark a generational shift in Colombian politics. Uribe wants to shake up the political establishment by taking with him to Congress a series of young and ambitious politicians, like Paloma Valencia, the analyst and broadcaster.

Uribe, who cast himself as something of an outsider to the closed ranks of Colombia´s political oligarchy to win the 2002 election, is said to be keen to repeat this phenomenon, hoping to change the make-up of the legislature.

It is difficult to predict the number of seats Uribe would win – the Cifras y Conceptos poll asked voters whether they would vote for Uribe, but they did not ask whether they would vote for him against a candidate or b candidate and so the exercise was to an extent academic.

Nevertheless, evidence is plentiful that Uribe remains extremely popular within certain sections of society – particularly rural voters and those in Colombia´s “estratos” one and two.

Following the elections in 2014, it is entirely possible, therefore, that Uribe´s movement – under whatever name it goes by at the time – could emerge with the largest number of senators.

This would pose a major problem for a re-elected President Santos. His second term legislative changes would face difficult – and sometimes impossible – passages through Congress.

Given Uribe´s fierce opposition to the peace talks – and to what could form the detail of an eventual negotiated agreement between the FARC and the Colombian government – Santos will have more than one eye on the Congress´ timetable, knowing that unless he is able to force through any legislative changes as part of the outcome of the negotiations before this parliament is over, life will be excruciatingly difficult thereafter.

Some say Uribe will also try to recapture the presidency in 2014 through the proxy of an uber-loyal candidate.

This has truth, but Uribe knows that if Santos is to run for re-election – itself almost an inevitability – it will be extremely difficult to defeat him (with or without a successful outcome to the peace talks).

Óscar Iván Zuluaga, the current Uribista pre-candidate has a low profile and has an almost impossible route to the Presidential Palace at the Casa de Nariño.

Uribe may well opt to pitch for a more hard hitting candidate or he may opt to keep his powder dry this time, choose to get elected to the Senate and use that as a base for an Uribismo tilt at the presidency 2018-2022. Either way, it´s an unavoidable fact that Uribe still helps define Colombian politics.

There is just one complication that threatens to bog Uribismo down.

Should Uribe become a senator he will lose his presidential immunity, and with that perhaps an inevitable slew of lawsuits awaits…

This article first appeared on Colombia Reports.

Colombian Presidents must holiday: Senator

Santos´ trips abroad have been on official business, photo Reuters

President of the Colombian Conservatives, Efrain Cepeda today proposed a new law which obliges presidents to break from their state duties to vacation for a minimum of seven days a year.

Were Cepeda´s law to pass, Congress would each year monitor the president´s movements to ensure the forced break had been taken.

As happens now when the president travels abroad, a minister (from the same party) would step into the president´s shoes.

To most overseas observers there is little to dispute in Cepeda´s proposal. The stresses and strains of office are such that not only it is perhaps humane for the head of state to enjoy a brief period away from the daily grind, but more importantly healthy in terms of good governance.

Countless prime ministers and presidents in their memoirs tell us of the healing effect of their holidays, and of this invaluable space to reflect on what was necessary for the country.

Tony Blair was frequently photographed sunning himself in Tuscan villas, while Obama was last August famously criticised for relaxing in the playground of the elite, Martha´s Vineyard.

If the Leader of the Free World can holiday, then surely the Colombian President can be afforded the same luxury.

Although Cepeda is right to bring it forward, this new law would appall ex president Uribe; his famous mantra throughout the eight years of his administration was ´trabajar, trabajar, trabajar´or work, work, work. Uribe felt he owed the country eighteen hours of graft, seven days a week.

Perhaps this view is understandable, but who can honestly say that a country cannot cope without its leader for a few days?

The problem is this, however. Colombia is a country whose political system is highly centralized; the powers of the president, and his resulting duties, are without rival. The division of powers between the executive, the legislature and the judiciary are written into the constitution, of course, but the truth is Colombia requires major reform to redistribute the roles of government.

This law ought to pass under the radar, and it would were these reforms already in replace. The fact Cepeda´s proposal is news is an eloquent reminder of the deficit inherent in Colombia´s democratic checks and balances.

What this law tells us about the Conservative Party is also less than flattering. We are less than a year away from the start of the pre-campaigns for the congressional and presidential elections. Miguel Benito Lázaro in his guest piece last week reported on the Conservatives´ enduring crisis and its failure to establish a credible platform for popular support. 100% Cepeda´s time should be devoted to projects that will generate public approval, that will give voters a reason to believe the Conservatives are fit again to govern.

Holidays for presidents does not sound like a winning slogan.

 

La larga crisis del Partido Conservador Colombiano

Expresidente Pastrana, foto El Espectador

Guest article by Miguel Benito Lázaro.

Les voy a dar una noticia que no sorprenderá a nadie: el Partido Conservador Colombiano está en crisis. De hecho, vive en una crisis permanente y cotidiana. Y el problema radica  en que ya nadie se sorprende por ello.

Una crisis que nació al final de la presidencia de Andrés Pastrana, cuya impopularidad se extendió a todo el partido, dejando el campo abierto para que Álvaro Uribe, una vez en el poder, pudiese atraer a buena parte del liderazgo conservador -y también del liberalismo-. De esta manera, por el desprestigio del partido y por la migración de algunos de sus notables, Uribe asumió las banderas tradicionales del partido sin resistencia. De ese modo el conservadurismo se quedó sin identidad ante la opinión pública.

Y los conservadores parecen haberse acostumbrado a ese estado de cosas que les deja como un partido sin posibilidades reales de conseguir la presidencia de la República, constreñido en feudos rurales y algunas ciudades medianas, pero sin acceso a las grandes urbes, y con un discurso totalmente ajeno a las preocupaciones de la mayoría de los colombianos que acentúa la creciente marginalidad del partido conservador.

Pero lejos de aceptar esta realidad, el conservatismo se engaña y cree que aún mantiene una gran representación popular, porque se ha convertido en una maquinaria orientada a conseguir cuotas de poder, vía acuerdos burocráticos y componendas interpartidarias, que no necesitan de apoyo popular. El mayor exponente del burocratismo.

La crisis está siendo tan devastadora que el expresidente Pastrana -el peor valorado de los presidentes recientes de Colombia y cuya impopularidad personal está en las bases mismas de esta crisis- puede presentarse hoy como la opción de modernización y dinamización del colectivo y que no parezca una idea descabellada. Porque el partido ha entrado en una regresión ideológica fundamental.

En el último año y medio Liliana Rendón, Juan Manuel Corzo y Enrique Gómez Hurtado gozaron de alguna notoriedad pública. ¿Por alguna importante propuesta política? No. Hace mucho que el Partido Conservador no lanza iniciativas de interés y alcance. La única plataforma que se le conoce actualmente tiene que ver más con la religión que con la política, intentando regular más y de acuerdo a postulados religiosos y valores sociales tradicionales comportamientos privados. Conservadores en pro de mayor regulación y chocando directamente con el principio de laicidad del Estado. Una auténtica traición a los fundamentos filosóficos del conservadurismo.

Todo esto sería superable si el Partido se abriese a sus bases y las empoderase mediante mecanismos de democracia interna -como había venido intentando en años anteriores- pero en una muestra más la incapacidad para leer tendencias y aprovechar oportunidades la dirección conservadora ha preferido restringir las decisiones a “los notables”, una auténtica oligarquía, cuyo único interés es mantener el control sobre el partido y por cuyas cabezas la idea de reforma, adaptación y modernización suena extraña y peligrosa.

Con todos estos elementos nos asomamos a un desolador espectro de Partido Conservador Colombiano sin liderazgo nacional, regionalizado, sin proyecto de país ni propuestas que conecten con el ciudadano. Esta es la realidad de la larga crisis del conservatismo colombiano de la que nadie habla y que la dirección nacional negara mientras siga entrando en los repartos de cargos.

En definitiva, malos tiempos para ser conservador en Colombia.

Miguel Benito Lázaro es analista político, docente de la Universidad de Externado de Colombia en relaciones internacionales, y panelista invitado de diferentes programas de opinión nacionales.

Esta columna fue publicada inicialmente en la Revista Posición.

Colombia’s ex-president Andrés Pastrana to stand for election in 2014?

Pastrana and FARC Leader Marulanda en Caguán

Colombia awoke to the news this morning that Conservative ex-President Pastrana was to run for election in 2014. According to the radio station, La W, the ex-president had decided, over a decade after leaving office, to try again for the Casa de Nariño. 

Pastrana’s campaign was said to be based on the fight to secure peace, an ironic twist for critics who remember him as an unpopular president whose mandate had been tarnished by his failed attempts to deliver peace through negotiation talks with the ELN and the FARC.

Those who view Pastrana more favourably point to the legacy he secured through the signature of the Plan Colombia, a treaty with the US that led to millions of dollars of aid to fight the FARC. This money allowed President Uribe to deliver his ‘Democratic Security’ strategy that pushed back the guerrillas and helped the president establish his reputation as the man who saved the country from the communist threat.
Pastrana’s tilt for the presidency was also understood to be based on his dismay at the direction his party is heading. Pastrana strongly criticised the previous Conservative leadership for what he saw as a  moral bankruptcy and an erroneous policy platform. It was, however, hoped that he would return to fold following the installation of Efraín Cepeda as party director at the end of last year. Cepeda is a protegé of Pastrana and his politics are closer to those of the ex-president than were those of the previous leader, Salazar.
While Pastrana has been less outspoken, he is understood to remain concerned about the Conservatives’ role on the national stage. The party is within President Santos’ coalition government, but they complain about a lack of influence on the president’s policy decisions. Ahead of the start of this congressional session (in July), Cepeda put Santos on notice that the party was considering its position within the government, and that it demanded both a change the president’s politics and the replacement of two cabinet ministers (implicitly moving two Conservatives into the vacated seats).
Santos is yet fully to react to Cepeda’s demands, and there are rumours that members of the party close to  Uribe are agitating to join the ex-president’s new political movement, Puro Centro Democrático. The party threatens to split with former leader and arch-Uribista Salazar perhaps heading up the group of ‘defectors’.
Pastrana is anti-Uribista and fears the party is about to lurch to the mano dura rightism of his successor as head of state. But for Pastrana the thought of the Conservatives remaining (long-term) with Santos offers precious little more in the way of comfort.
Should the party remain with the president (or align with Uribe) and choose not to launch its own presidential candidate in 2014, Pastrana fears a continued decline in the influence of Conservatism. After the unsuccessful presidential candidature of Noemi Sanin in 2010, and the disastrous showing at the local and regional votes in 2011, the relevance of the party as an electoral force is in doubt.
Pastrana is desperate to arrest this decline – the Conservatives, until the emergence of Uribe in 2002, formed part of a two-party state in which power alternated between them and the Liberal Party. It now threatens to be relegated to an also-ran.
Amid the uncertainty about the movement’s plans for 2014, the ex-president appeared this morning to be taking matters into his own hands, announcing that, yes, there would be a candidate – and that it would belong to the centrist wing.
No sooner had the La W aired its exclusive and Twitter – fast becoming the platform of choice for political debate in Colombia (with the lack of argument on the country’s traditional media) – fizzed with a mixture of shock and incredulity. Was Pastrana serious? Surely he had been off the stage too long and was too old? As for his attempt to position himself as the candidate of peace when he failed when last in office…
Judging by the reaction on Twitter – and given the Uribistas appear to outnumber the rest by a significant margin on this medium, it isn’t a fair reflection of the national mood – Pastrana’s election campaign would be doomed, defeat assured.
By mid-afternoon, however, this near certain ignominious end was avoided and the shortest candidature in history was over. Pastrana emerged to announce that La W had got the wrong end of the stick – he was withdrawing his name before it went forward.
So was the La W just making it up?
While the radio station might have misinterpreted the signals, there is an underlying political truth that Pastranism (if not Pastrana himself) is positioning itself for a move within Conservatism.
At the end of last year before Cepeda took over the leadership, party bigwigs began to coalesce around the possibility of a Pastrana return as CEO. Cepeda was seen as the candidate to unite both wings, keeping the Pastranistas onside. The news today suggests that the level of discontent is rising. Pastrana’s non-candidature is a form of threat, a cry to be heard and start of a crucial period for Conservatism.  The party must decide its future direction ahead of next year and the start of the painfully long pre-election period.

Also published on Redes Colombia

Colombian Conservatives place President Santos on notice

Senator Cepeda, Conservative Leader, photo, Semana

As the curtain raised on a new session of congress on Friday, Efraín Cepeda, the director of the Colombian Conservatives, warned of a ‘crisis’ in President Juan Manuel Santos’ National Unity coalition government.
The leader of the second largest parliamentary force was speaking after a special meeting of his troops where their presence in this coalition was confirmed, but where it was also conditioned on big change.
Cepeda is exploiting the first serious signs of weakness in the Santos regime; the president is desperate to restore relations with congress, and is starting to look over his shoulder as Alvaro Uribe’s political party takes shape. 
Many Conservatives are ideologically tied to Alvaro Uribe rather than President Santos and will be tempted, as we approach the pre-election cycle next year, to join his movement. For Santos the price of their continued support has risen significantly. 
The Conservatives’ march towards unity?
Efraín Cepeda was sworn in as president of the Conservatives at the end of last November taking over from José Darío Salázar. Salázar left the parted divided; those on the centre were left cold by the socially right-wing campaigns of 2011 (against gay-marriage and abortion). Andrés Pastrana, the last Conservative president (1998-2002), spent much of the year attacking the party for its policy direction and its supine attempts to weed out corruption within the collective. 
Although Cepeda arrived in parliament on the coat-tails of Pastrana, he has allies on both wings of the party and was seen as a unity candidate, bringing the Pastranistas and Uribistas together. His job of keeping his colleagues batting for the same team has been made more difficult, however, by the emergence of Alvaro Uribe’s Puro Centro Democrático. The stakes are now higher and should he fail, many Conservatives could jump ship. A further complication is that Former Defence Minister and leading Conservative (although also previously a member of the U) Marta Lucía Ramírez is even talked about as a possible Uribista presidential candidate. Under such circumstances the gravitation pull towards Uribe could become a force impossible for some to resist. 
To keep the Conservatives together, Cepeda must secure more goodies from the president. The parliamentary party will be less inclined to leave the coalition if they are tied in by grace and favour and if they feel their voice is heard more in the decision-making process.
Santos / congress relations a Conservative opportunity?

Congress feels scapegoated by the president. Santos only weeks ago forced his coalition partners to vote down the controversial Justice Reform bill days after he had whipped them to vote it through. Public anger at the legislation led to pillorying of parliamentarians; accused en masse of corruption and self-interest.

The parliamentarians’ resentment arises from the feeling that Santos pushed much of the blame onto them instead of accepting the government’s role in the fiasco – after all the government proposed the legislation, they argue. This discontent was evident as Interior Minister Federico Renjifo stood up to speak during the vote to ditch the JR bill – in an unprecedented reaction from congress toward a minister of state, Dr Renjifo was whistled at and boo-ed.

Reaction to JR bill led to a strategic rethink from Santos. At a special cabinet meeting to determine a way forward – called earlier this month – Santos told colleagues that he was focused more on public opinion than on securing harmonious relations with the law-makers. The Santos administration is, however a reforming government that needs the security or the ‘governability’ (the president confesses this is his favourite word) of the National Unity coalition. It is little surprise then that ahead of the start of the new parliamentary year (the third, and penultimate in Santos’ first mandate), diplomacy between the presidential palace and its legislative partners went into overdrive.

Efraín Cepeda is taking advantage of this situation. Under Salázar, the Conservatives were the opposition within the coalition. The party’s old boss is an arch-Uribista and was one of the first politicians to criticise Santos for departing from the ex-president’s Democractic Security doctrine.

When Cepeda took over efforts were made to repair the relationship. In February, the new leader was one of the first out of the blocks to defend the Santos regime when news emerged of the exiled Luis Carlos Restrepo’s attempted political coup to prevent the president’s re-election. The Conservatives were ‘proud to support the government’, Cepeda confirmed.

The cost of coalition politics

The Conservatives are calling in their chips, but how do they want Santos to pay? Effectively it comes down to do things – personnel and policy, and the Conservatives want Santos to show more leg on both.

Something the president needs to resolve quickly is Cepeda’s assertion that there are ‘useless ministers’ in the cabinet, a ‘crisis’ at the heart of the government. Cepeda has attacked the ministers for education and for health – both for their abilities and politics.  In doing this, Cepeda has announced that his Conservative party is moving to occupy this key social policy territory. He will want Santos to recognise this by moving Conservatives to these positions. 

This is smart politics. The tactic is to position the Conservatives not as the party of pro-life anti-gay hardliners but instead a modern political movement focused on removing the social barriers to success, to reducing poverty and to increasing opportunity.

It is also a move that understands where the public mood is starting to turn. The government has faced criticism for its education policies (particularly its university reform proposals which were shelved due to public protest), and its inability to resolve the health crisis which many highlight as political ticking time-bomb about to explode. Should Conservative ministers arrive in these positions and offer an alternative, a way out of the mess, then the party will be well positioned as the country moves into pre-election mode next year.

The Conservatives want high-profile ministers in high-profile roles and they want Santos to start to deliver Conservative policies. As senate spokesman Hernán Andrade warning Santos – the relationship must be ‘reciprocal’ between the party and the government.

This website has reported before on the disquiet within Conservative ranks (recorded early on in Santos’ regime) at the direction the government is heading. The feeling has been that Santos has been suspiciously minded towards Liberal Party policies – and indeed Liberal politicians. Under Salázar in particular, the Conservatives felt marginalised, an afterthought in the coalition. Cepeda’s move on Friday seeks to use the game-changing events of the Justice Reform bill to ensure that a more Conservative looking agenda is pursued by the Casa de Nariño. Cepeda has given the president a choice, he has told him to demonstrate that the Conservatives have a role to play or to expect their eventual opposition to his government. From the sidelines Uribe will attentively await Santos’ answer.

Also published on Redes Colombia

 

A Colombian revolution? Nation turns on political class

Revolution?

In the face of overwhelming public opposition Juan Manuel Santos’ government was this week forced to ditch one of its most prized pieces of legislative reform. Reaction to the Justice Reform bill has caused a constitutional crisis threatening to take the government, the congress and the political class with it. 
The bill passed by congress early last week was supposed to represent the culmination of two years of hard legislative graft; the government’s centrepiece reform of this congressional session. At the 11th hour, however, a committee of congressmen hijacked the reforms, introducing clauses that would have generated chaos in Colombia’s justice system.
The most controversial of these clauses would have stripped the Supreme Court’s power to investigate the alleged crimes of legislators, in effect delivering Colombia’s top politicians virtual impunity: Those already in jail, for example the 44 congressmen convicted of ties with the Paramilitaries, would be released, and those legislators currently on trail – including the 100 or so cases that the Supreme Court has pending – would walk free, without further investigation. 
Citizens armed with 140 Twitter characters and the airwaves of the traditional media, whipped up a fury  that shook the presidential palace. Within hours of receiving the bill for rubber stamping, President Santos blocked its progression. 

No president had before refused to sign-off congress approved constitutional amendments.
Public disgust at the reforms has led to a double-digit dip in support for Santos, it has ended (at least temporarily) the political career of the Justice Minister, Juan Carlos Esguerra, and has put the country’s legislators on notice. Signatures are being collected for a referendum not only on the Colombian justice system, but also on whether to dissolve the congress. 

Colombia’s ‘internet indignados’ thirst for political blood appears likely only to be satiated by an impeachment of the entire political class. 

A week is a long time…
Last Wednesday President Santos received the final version of the Justice Reform bill. Following the conclusion of the final debate on the bill – during what is called the ‘conciliation’ period (where differences between the text approved in the ‘House of Representatives’ and the Senate are ironed out) – a group of congressmen appended a series of ‘monkey’ clauses as they are called in Colombia. 

The clauses were agreed behind closed doors – without the presence of the government – and emasculate the judiciary, transferring powers from the courts to the politicians direct. This is a violation of the principles of the Constitution of 1991.
Once the detail of these monkey clauses became public, the nation reacted with instant and overwhelming indignation. Within moments, the Twitter hastag #SeMueveLaContraReforma announcing the formation of a citizens army to oppose the reform was trending. Radio talk-shows were soon dominated not by the usual gossip but instead by the voices of the despairing masses. The fury of the nation had been ignited. 
By early afternoon it had become clear in the Casa de Nariño that the bill now posed a direct threat to the government’s authority, and its popular support. 
Santos feared the hostility of the public would not only direct itself against his government, but could also lead to the formation of a bona fide political movement. Santos recalled the events of the autumn of last year when the country’s universities ground to a halt as students protested against Santos’ education reform, a bill that eventually Santos was forced to ditch. 
Forced to act, Santos interrupted the television schedules to speak directly to the nation. He told us he was returning the bill to congress – he was refusing to rubber stamp it, as is his constitutional duty says he must. 

A constitutional muddle

But constitutional experts and opposition politicians reminded the country that the president has no power of veto on congress approved changes to the constitution. In these circumstances the executive is powerless to refuse the will of legislature. 

With Santos’ will expressed but uncertainty over what possible steps were available to the government the  flames of discontent began to lick at the presidential palace. 

The #SeMueveLaContraReforma group returned to Twitter to promote the idea of a referendum. The group promised a popular vote on remaking the justice system and also on the dissolution of the congress. The movement was joined by Polo Democrat politicians and Angela Robledo of the Green Party. 

The crisis appeared to engulf the political class. The careers of some of the country’s leading politicians were being torn apart at the seams as the media sought to lay blame. Justice Minister, Juan Carlos Esguerra decided to resign arguing that he was not to blame but that he would ‘assume political responsibility’ for the imbroglio.
With no obvious way out of the constitutional stand-off appearing available, the danger to the Santos administration was growing by the minute. The government began to exert pressure on the congress to sit on the document – preventing it from being printed and passing onto the statute books. Juan Manuel Corzo –  President of the Senate – appeared to consent to this. 

Talk grew, however, that congress’ original assent was enough for the legislative provisions to be applied as law. The prospect of the cell doors unlocking to release convicted politicians back onto the streets, free to stand for election again, became very real. 

Santos then received a letter from Simon Gaviria, Director of the Liberal Party and President of congress’ lower house in which the Liberal Party promised to – should Santos convene a series of emergence sessions of congress – vote down the entire bill (not just the monkey clauses), preventing its passage.

Santos duly announced that he was convening two special sessions of congress for Wednesday and Thursday and corralled his coalition troops to vote to bury the bill.
Yesterday, after 12 hours of discussion, 107 representatives of the lower house, and 73 senators supported the government’s initiative to kill the bill.
The political scars of the bloodless ‘revolution’
Last year President Santos enjoyed approval ratings in the 80%s. A poll taken today shows that less than half the nation continues to approve of the president.
Santos is said also to have lost significant political capital. Members of his coalition government are angry at being asked to vote down a reform of which days before they had been whipped to vote in favour of. 
Senator Luis Fernando Duque accused the government of treating them ‘like rats, like criminals’. Senator While Roy Barreras, the in-coming Senate President complained at the break down in communication between the National Unity coalition and the executive – ‘we only hear about the government’s political decisions through the press’, he said.
An eventual break-up – or restructuring – of Santos’ National Unity coalition, as a result of this episode, has even been hinted at. Senator Efrain Cepeda, President of the Conservative Party (a key group within the coalition) warned ‘we remain in the National Unity (coalition), but it’s quite another thing how the relations will be’ once congress reconvenes after the holiday period.
All this means that questions about how Santos will be able to drive through future reforms will now be raised with increasing frequency. Will he be able to rely on the support of congress without making significant concessions, for example?
We are still two years away from the election, but the chess pieces are starting to move. Certain commentators question whether this week has thrown Santos’ chances of re-election.
For all the talk of the threat to Santos, however, it remains true that the president saw the danger once the public began to revolt. Without Santos’ intervention the entire political class would be making its way onto the endangered species list.