Elections

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Colombia at crossroads; show us promised land Mr President

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Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos goes to the polls in May promising to bring peace to Colombia if he is re-elected for a second term.

Rumours say the campaign slogan will be “Unidos por la paz” (“United for peace”).

But is peace really enough?

Colombia is at a crossroads. After a decade of record levels of foreign investment, with peace on the horizon, and an economy now bigger than Argentina`s, there is a unique opportunity for Colombia to secure its place at the top table.

But Colombia faces real and structural problems that block the way.

A politician not willing to show us the way to the promised land does not deserve another four years in power.

Time then, Mr President to tell how you will fix:

1. Colombia`s education system which last year was rated among the world`s worst.

2. A health service you promised to reform three years ago but remains unfit for purpose.

3. Infrastructure, for which you promised billions of dollars of investment but have failed to get spades in the ground.

4. Corruption; despite your government passing a host of legislation, Transparency International last year gave Colombia its worst score in 10 years.

5. A sclerotic justice system where – according to the World Bank – it takes four years to enforce a contract.

6. Rural Colombia and the agribusiness on which 50% of the nation is dependent. We`re six months on from the nation-wide rural protests but we still await a plan for a sustainable future for the nation`s farmers.

7. Law and order. You say crime is down and certainly homicides rates are moving in the right direction, but Colombians feel less not more safe since you have come to power.

8. Poverty, you have made progress in some areas but 10 per cent of the nation still live on little more than a dollar a day and 40% of Colombians are poor according to your own figures.

Politics should be about solutions to these and many other problems facing the nation. 2014`s election campaign has avoided this debate.

Yes, Colombia Politics supports Santos` bold efforts to negotiate with FARC guerrillas to end 50 years of conflict. But this election cannot be reduced to a vote on whether to support peace or to continue with the war.

Time to end the demagoguery Mr President and tell us what you`ll do to make Colombia the country its people deserve.

Category: Comment, Elections
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Colombia`s media are wrong; election is up for grabs

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Don`t believe the hype or the Santos friendly media; 2014 is an election where anything could happen.

Polls show just 25% of the nation wants Santos to be re-elected. And 50% – yes 50%! – of Colombians can`t decide who to vote for or will spoil their ballot in protest at the poverty of choice.

Odd then that the media go with “Santos; the candidate with the best image” and “Santos; ahead by miles”.

An independent journalist might suggest Santos is as popular as Lady Thatcher in an English mining town. To propose he is already on course to win by a landslide is, well, tosh isn`t it.

I know I bang on about how the media is conveniently cosy with the government (not just this one, but who ever the government of the time is). But for me the media should always be the fourth branch of power, a force holding politicians to account not brown nosing.

You think I`m exaggerating about the relationship between the media and Santos? Tune your dial to Hora 20 on Caracol Radio, or BluRadio`s morning programme and you`ll hear that even journos themselves accept the argument.

So, let`s ignore those who say it`s all a foregone conclusion.

Let`s look at the reality.

Santos is ahead of his rivals? Yes. In fact, add the percentage points of the other candidates together and Santos is still above them.

Santos has the support of the parliament? Yes. He has built a coalition of over 90% of congress and now has the U Party, the Liberals and Cambio Radical officially supporting his candidature. Even some Conservatives will unofficially support him despite having their own candidate. Weird? You bet.

Santos has the media on side? Ave María, of course.

So, yes he`s on course to win. There is no one at the moment that looks ready to take him on. On the right, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, former president Alvaro Uribe`s choice, has sunk without trace, now on 8%, while the affable Clara Lopez on the left struggles to get above 5%.

Conservatives`Marta Lucia Ramirez has only just got going – she has been a candidate for less than a fortnight, and Enrique Peñalosa, a possible for the Greens, won`t formalize his candidature until March.

Santos is the clear favourite? Absolutely.

But…if 50% of the electorate is up for grabs and two thirds are against the president`s re-election, well it`s not as clear cut as the experts would like us to believe.

Think back to the “Green Wave” of Antanas Mockus in 2010. Mockus almost over night surged into what looked like an unassailable lead in the polls. His message of education reform and a crack-down on corruption had Santos pegged back, languishing even.

Mockus bottled it though in a series of painful interviews and debates and Santos – with the help of Uribe and campaign strategist JJ Rendon – went on to win with a record number of votes.

Remember too that in 2002 Alvaro Uribe burst onto the scene, coming from a very lowly position in the polls to win in the first round (which meant he won over 50% of the vote).

To my mind it doesn`t take that much imagination to see something similar this time round. Dissatisfaction with the old style of politics is at record levels, Santos is desperately unpopular in parts of the country, and let`s face it, he`s not the best communicator or campaigner.

A candidate with a clear message representing something slighty different could wipe the floor with him.

I`ve lamented before that there is no such candidate. Well, how about Enrique Peñalosa? He`s not even a candidate yet but registers 10% in some polls. He is well known, has a proven track record of good governance when mayor of Bogota. Ok, so he`s from the capital and is rich, but he`s a little outside of, a little different to the political class so loathed by Colombians.

Peñalosa`s advantage is that he is neither a loony lefty nor a reactionary right-winger. His is an ability to shift between the left and the right depending on the issue. As a consequence he attracts support from across the spectrum – just the sort of thing that becomes incredibly useful in the second round run off.

So if Santos fails to win 50% of the vote and he has to go to a run off with the second placed candidate, say Peñalosa the final result is anyone`s guess.

Santos would have his 25% guaranteed, but Peñalosa might just attract more of the 50% of the electorate up for grabs.

The ABS candidate, “Anyone but Santos” is a powerful ticket.

Am I getting ahead of myself? Of course. And does it have to be Peñalosa? No.

The point is that despite what the editors of some national papers seem to want us to believe. With 50% of the electorate in play, the game is very much afoot.

Picture, Mockus` 2010 “Green Wave”.

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Colombia`s next president; a woman

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Presidential hopeful Marta Lucia Ramirez was yesterday elected as the Conservative party`s candidate to fight Juan Manuel Santos in May`s elections.

Speculation is already growing that Alvaro Uribe loyalists will join forces with Ramirez making her a real prospect as Colombia`s first woman president.

The race is wide open as Santos languishes on 26%, while the majority of Colombians say they are undecided or will spoil their ballot.

Yes, Ramirez`s own polling figures currently barely register, but Colombia`s politics are a rare beast, and Alvaro Uribe himself won 2002`s presidential race in the first round just months after he had been written off as an also ran.

Santos is an unpopular president but he has the support of 90 per cent of the congress – which his opponents accuse him of buying off with over 1.5 billion dollars of “mermelada”, or jam.

Even with the support of senators, congressmen, governors and the U Party, the Liberals, Cambio Radical and a hotchpotch of others, it is almost impossible to see Santos winning the 50% needed to secure victory in the first round. That means he must face a run off against the second placed candidate.

At this stage – if not before – Uribistas could swing their weight behind Ramirez making her candidature difficult to beat. Uribe`s movement elected Oscar Ivan Zuluaga as their candidate just three months ago, but Colombians have turned up their noses at his uninspiring campaign, and privately many Uribistas have been pitching around for a new face.

Support for Uribe has certainly fallen in recent months, but he remains popular in much of rural Colombia – where the Conservatives are also strong.

Ramirez`s biggest challenge will be to hold together her divided party.

The Conservatives remain part of Santos` national coalition government and many of the parliamentarians still favour joining the Santos re-election campaign.

Ramirez and her allies accuse the parliamentarians of siding with Santos not because of ideological coincidence but because they`ve grown fond of the taste of the jam.

Ramirez alleges senators like Santos supporting Arturo Yepes paid for transport food and board for delegates to attend yesterday`s conference – from which Ramirez emerged victorious – and vote to down Ramirez`s candidature.

The decision by Conservative party activists to go against the wishes of their parliamentary representatives is seen as a rebellion against the political class.

Ramirez announced her candidacy in January 2013 and Colombia Politics argued then that she was the Conservatives` best hope of returning to power after more than a decade on the sidelines.  Since then we`ve met her a few times and have been struck by her clarity. She may remain unknown to large swathes of the nation, but unlike many politicians she has a clear agenda. She has less than four months to sell this to the country.

Is she a realistic hope for Colombia`s first female president?

Picture, Semana

Category: Comment, Elections
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Colombia needs an alternative

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Colombia`s presidential election has an air of inevitability about it. Ok, so 66% of Colombians don`t want to re-elect President Santos. But they don`t much fancy the list of other options, either.

Oscar Ivan Zuluaga ex-president Alvaro Uribe`s man, struggles for votes above 15%, while Clara Lopez and other leftie candidates are within the margin of error.

The candidate with the best change of beating Santos is the “voto en blanco”, or the spoilt ballot. He/she currently sits just three points behind the president.

Abstention too has a chance of winning; nearly half of Colombians remain unsure who is the lesser of evils.

We`re six months away from the first round vote in the presidential election (if no candidate wins an absolute majority he or she must face a run off with the second placed runner up) and there is plenty of time for the nation to decide which way to jump.

However, there is a strange sense that it is not that Colombians are undecided, but antipathetic. Abstention might not reflect laziness but a nationwide collective turning up of the nose.

Anecdotally I have found not a soul who wants to see Santos in power come August (when the new president is sworn in). But equally, most struggle to identify an alternative, and confess they may end up voting for him to keep out a worse option (a leftie or a rightie depending on their politics).

Colombia`s democracy is a curious beast, and it would be foolish to pretend that corruption and outright vote buying will not play a significant role in the outcome of the elections. Nevertheless, it IS important what the electorate think and want – despite the best efforts of many to avoid this reality – and a move in voter sentiment if it is particularly strong could bring about real change.

So, while I still believe that Santos should just about scrape home to victory, there are two alternative scenarios:

1. The voto en blanco campaign captures the public mood, and Colombians decide to send a message to their overly oligarchical political class. In the event that the “white wave”, as it is now being called, tops the poll, elections will have to be recalled, with none of the previous candidates allowed to stand again. What fun that would be!

2. A surprise figure, a new, inspiring and intelligent figure emerges to offer change hope and a path to the sunlit uplands…well, we can hope, can´t we? Perhaps the white knight won`t arrive, but a reasonable, palatable politician must be out there somewhere.

In 2002 Alvaro Uribe appeared almost from nowhere. With just months to go he was hopelessly behind, registering very low in the polls, but his populist message of enough is enough led him to take the elections in the first round.

Equally, the Green candidate and former Bogota Mayor, Antanas Mockus in 2010 managed to bring about Colombia`s first social media revolution, building what looked like an unstoppibly popular movement. But Mockus faded just as quickly as he had surged and Santos won comfortably.

So, Colombia is desperately seeking a Mockus; but this time a Mockus with staying power. Education, health, justice – the platforms on which this candidate could run are as endless as the reforms to the system are urgent.

Arise…¡Dios me oiga!

Picture, Global Post

Category: Comment, Elections
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President Santos: `re-elect me for peace`

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Colombia`s President Juan Manuel Santos, tonight launched an audacious re-election bid, claiming peace is possible only with him in charge.

Santos will ask Colombians next May to vote for four more years to implement peace accords he hopes the in coming months to have signed with FARC guerrillas.

If the president has his way, ending Colombia`s 50 year conflict will be the central issue as the campaign officially begins on Monday. Santos`strategy is to offer the electorate a choice of the “friends of peace” and the enemies of the FARC talks underway in Havana. The commander-in-chief hopes that, however sceptical the public may be, it will ultimately not vote against a farewell to arms.

Santos is building a coalition of Liberal, Conservative, Cambio Radical, and other, parties in support of his re-election.

Yesterday, the President sat late into the night securing the support of potential rival, German Vargas Lleras, and also tied up backing from left-wing Bogota Mayor, Gustavo Petro and right-wing Conservatives.

With support from the major political powerhouses already secured, Santos is trying to stitch up the election before the campaign has begun. Currently there is no candidate that has a chance of beating him.

Oscar Ivan Zuluaga is his closest rival but, despite having the support of hardline former president, Alvaro Uribe, Zuluaga has failed to capture the attention of the public.

Polls show that less than a third of Colombians want Santos back in the presidential palace come next August (when the possession takes place). However, with the state`s largesse at his disposal, the coalition votes in the bag, and the majority of the national media “on message”, public opinion will struggle to be heard. Santos` re-election has an air of inevitability.

Within minutes of Santos` address, supporters were dispatched to the TV and radio studios to herald the achievements of the administration. Those that just days ago were wondering whether to ditch a president ailing in the polls are today firmly tied to the re-election ship.

If these supporters are to be believed the votes have already been counted. Will Colombians fall in line and obey the wishes of the political class?

Picture, El Tiempo.

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Cometh the hour, cometh Germán

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Is German Vargas Lleras about to emerge from the shadow of President Juan Manuel Santos and sweep to victory in next year`s election?

On 30 May 2010, German Vargas Lleras won a million and a half votes in the first round of Colombia`s presidential election.

The Cambio Radical hopeful had come a surprise third, beating candidates from Colombia`s big two traditional parties; Conservatives and Liberals.  The next day, I posted on Facebook, long before I had set up Colombia Politics, “German Vargas Lleras, 2014-2018″, in an allusion to the possible outcome of the next election.

Six and a bit months to go, and this is still a real possibility. Here`s why:

For months Vargas Lleras had led in the polls. In May he was even more popular than Alvaro Uribe, who is constitutionally prohibited from running, but who is now head and shoulders clear of all other politicians in Colombia.

If the election were held tomorrow, Vargas Lleras would beat not only President Santos, but also Uribe`s choice, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, and the left-wing alternatives of Clara Lopez and Antonio Navarro Wolff.

Vargas has dreamt of the top job since he was in short trousers. He has dedicated his life to the ascent of the greasy pole, for decades working his magic in corridors of power. Most recently he has been for three years straight, President Santos` “ministro estrella” or “star minister”.

In the first years of the Santos administration, Vargas pulled the strings for his boss in congress, setting the parliamentary agenda and whipping the National Unity coalition into shape. Latterly he has donned a hard hat to dish out free houses for the poor.

Vargas has been so good, so loyal and indispensible to President Santos, that the commander in chief has placed him in charge of the Santos re-election campaign.

Santos has tied his man so tightly to the ship that even if it sinks he will have no life boat. Or at least that is what Santos hopes. Earlier this year, the president set up Buen Gobierno, a form of think-tank-cum-campaign-headquarters, and swiftly dispatched his right-hand man to be its boss.

Impossible, Santos calculates, for the man leading the charge to extend the administration into a second term, to cut loose and go it alone.

But this is Colombia,  and politics here can often seem as scrupulous as the rotten boroughs of early 1800s England.

Rumours circulate that Vargas Lleras is pouring over the endless polling data that put him top; he faces a genuine crossroads moment.

President Santos has a week to announce whether he will run for re-election. If he decides to pass the buck – something virtually no one is predicting – Vargas will almost certainly inherit the crown. But even if Santos does run, Vargas could yet emerge.

Here are three or many scenarios that could encourage Vargas to pull the trigger.

What if Santos does not recover in the polls? At the moment the president is hugely unpopular and less than a third of Colombians will vote for him. In the first round of voting the spoilt ballots would beat the incumbent. If this does not change quickly, Santos is doomed.

What if the peace process with the FARC guerrillas goes awry? Could Santos really be re-elected if the talks collapse.

What happens if a new wave of protests – like those that brought the nation to a standstill in August – flares up? Coffee farmers and agriculture workers continue to complain of government broken promises, and it is not difficult to see how these or those against health reforms currently going through congress, would take to the streets again. Santos has shown himself incapable of handling such crises, can he really survive more public unrest?

Frankly, such is the antipathy, that it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Colombians decide enough is enough, that Santos whatever the cost, should not be allowed four more years.

So come January once the Christmas festivities are out of the way and Santos has not improved in the polls. Or come March when congressional elections show Santos supporting parties have tanked.

What better time for Vargas Lleras to step forward and offer Colombians a bit of charismatic leadership?

Cometh the hour.

Read our political biography of German Vargas Lleras.

Category: Comment, Elections
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Ex-President Uribe on course to win 2 million votes

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Colombia`s Ex-President Alvaro Uribe is set to win over 2 million votes in next year`s congressional elections says poll.

Based on the findings of canvassers Datexco, Colombia`s three main political parties will all see their vote share reduced by hundreds of thousands when ballots are cast in March.

Leaders are staring down the barrel of a gun as President Santos supporting U Party is on course to lose over 900,000 votes, while some 660,000 will desert the Conservatives. And although Liberal Party boss, Simon Gaviria denies his collective will be affected, they are projected to shed 474,000 supporters.

Despite never having fought an election in the past, Uribe`s Centro Democratico (CD) movement is threatening to emerge as the largest party in congress, dealing a heavy blow to President Santos` hopes of a successful second period in office.

It is far too early to tell how soft the support for Uribe is; Senate and Representative lists for the CD were only announced last month and candidates face a long and brutal campaign.  And while the former president himself remains hugely popular in certain sections of Colombian society, his running mates are largely invisible figures.

What ever the result next year, however, it looks certain that an incoming president will face a very different congress to that enjoyed by President Santos these past three years. Santos has ruled over a coalition government that controls over 90% of the legislature. Record numbers of laws have been passed, and opposition to the executive has been feeble, almost non-existent.

A congress with Uribe leading a pack of new and hungry senators is a prospect that has some political commentators salivating. Should Santos run for president again (he has until 25 November to announce his decision) and win, he would struggle to pull together a majority coalition in congress.

Colombia Politics expects the Conservatives will eventually join forces with the Uribistas of the CD. Santos must also face the reality that a number of supposed colleagues elected as U Party members remain loyal to their old boss, Uribe (rather than their current boss, Santos) and will link up with the Conservatives CD grouping.

If all remains to play for in the presidential elections, the same can also be said of the congressional vote.