[18-Jun-2019 12:17:42 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home2/colombm8/public_html/wp-content/plugins/automatic-youtube-video-posts/core/admin.php on line 31 Elections Archives - Page 2 of 5 - Colombia PoliticsColombia Politics

Elections

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Alvaro Uribe president again. What happens then?

uribe santos

The polls are moving away from President Santos quicker than you can say 12 million dollars in narco-money.

Alvaro Uribe looks on course to return to the Casa de Nariño just four years after its doors were closed behind him. Vicariously of course, as Uribe himself is not running for president. But make no mistake, if his candidate, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga does win the election, it will be Mr Uribe who governs, not Zuluaga.

Last night, for the first time, polls showed – by a margin of 8 points – Mr Zuluaga on course to beat incumbent Juan Manuel Santos.

The Santos camp appears to be sleepwalking to defeat. They thought they had it sewn up.

But the momentum is shifting at break neck speed, and the Liberals, Cambio Radical, Greens and anyone else who’d jumped aboard the re-election bandwagon is beginning to panic.

Just a month ago, Mr Zuluaga was an also run. In fact, he was languishing a distant third in the polls. But almost over night he has doubled his voting intention, spending hundreds of thousands on effective publicity, and traversing the nation in a frenzy of campaigning.

At the same time, President Santos has been hit with scandal after scandal after scandal, and his credibility with Colombians is at rock bottom.

Santos can still save himself, and has the media on his side as well the huge state coffers to dig him out of trouble. And yet… momentum is a tricky beast to tame, and Mr Zuluaga now looks a darn good bet for president.

So what will happen if Uribismo returns to power?

Most likely the peace talks with the FARC will collapse almost immediately. The FARC’s animosity towards Uribe means they will try to pull the plug first.

Uribe’s Democratic Centre senators (of which he is the top dog) will try to form a coalition to establish a majority in the upper house. Expect the Conservatives to jump the Santos ship and hop into bed with their old boss (they were always happier under an Uribe presidency).  Expect too, some of those that today are violently opposed to Uribe, to soften their stance and start to cosy up to him.

Uribe will go big on law and order, and declare a war on urban crime. The police will be given new powers and a new cabinet minister for civil order will be created. Expect an ex-army chief to take up the role.

Uribe will join forces with the inspector general to kick Petro out of office for good. Pacho Santos will be the new mayor of Bogota.

The congressional coalition will work to draft constitutional amendments to permit a president to run for a third term – Mr Uribe will be chosen as the Democratic Centre National Unity candidate in 2018. He will win. Within 18 months of taking office Mr Zuluaga will take a back seat; Uribe will morph into Vladimir Putin.

The left will rue a missed opportunity and will complain from day one of persecution and harassment.

Colombia’s media will miraculously change their tune, lending support to the new president and labelling Santos a traitor.

Money will be pumped into education – it’s Zuluaga’s number one campaigning platform – and rural Colombia will receive a bonanza. A representative of the campesino movement will be chosen as a cabinet minister and Uribe will establish a new social contract with the nation’s farmers.

And finally, relations with Venezuela will be broken off again and Colombia’s army will go after the FARC guerrillas in the neighbouring territory. Maduro will sweat, as the US secretly backs Mr Uribe’s campaign.

Uribe back in the presidential palace in August when the new term starts? Yes – unless Santos wakes up from his malaise, and develops some fight. These are strange days indeed.

Category: Comment, Elections
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Uribe, Santos: A plague on both your houses

santos uribe

A sulphuric stench hangs over Colombia’s presidential election race.

There are dirty negative campaigns and then there are Colombia’s politics.

Last week we learnt that narco-scandals go right to the presidential palace. Also that wire-tapping is back; with President Santos’ main rival Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, accused of sabotaging the peace process with the FARC.

Colombians themselves wish a plague on both their houses; who to vote for in this most unedifying mud-slinging match, they ask?

On Thursday, Alvaro Uribe accused Santos of accepting 2 million dollars in narco-money in his winning campaign of 2010. Friday and Santos was suing Uribe, his former boss.

Santos’ top election adviser JJ Rendon has quit his job, and remains under suspicion of receiving 12 million (yes 12 million) in lobbying money from the narco-mafia. Hours after Mr Rendon left his post, the attorney general opened an investigation into a hacker with close links to Mr Zuluaga’s campaign. The hacker is accused of spying on FARC and government negotiators, and even the president himself. The media have found a criollo Eduardo Snowden.

Win at all costs. This seems to be the motto of Uribe and Santos.

All the while, the real problems that face Colombia – the corruption, the urgent reforms to the health, education and justice systems go unmentioned in a campaign where hatred reigns supreme.

Colombians are offered precious little glimpse of the sunlit uplands.

They are fed up.

Just a third of Colombians have a favourable view of their president, and the majority believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Fewer than half will turn out to vote.

Conservative candidate Marta Lucia Ramirez too offers a bleak view of the Santos years. She claims nearly 5 billion dollars is lost annually to corruption – 5 billion!

Ramirez, like the left-leaning senator-elect Claudia Lopez, believes corruption is the most expensive tax Colombians pay. Left and right agree on this, at least.

With peace on the horizon, Colombia is at a delicate crossroads. Perhaps we should not be surprised by the fierce battle to decide which road it takes.

But whoever wins out will need urgently to calm the rhetoric, unite the nation and offer Colombians a new social contract. It is time for the politicians to build a trust they have never really before enjoyed.

Am I optimistic for the future despite this election campaign?

Absolutely! Colombians are more informed than ever before and fewer and fewer are willing to accept the decadence of many in the political class. The time will come when the discontent feeds into organized politics and the traditional parties and families are forced out of their ivory towers.

It looks as though there will be no change come May 25. But whether the house of Santos or of Uribe wins, the end of their time in office has been hastened.

You cannot ignore all of the people all of the time.

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Vote for peace, vote for Santos?

santoscampaña

If Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos has his way May’s election will be a referendum on one issue; peace negotiations with the FARC guerrillas.

One of Santos’ campaign slogans is “together for peace”, while his logo reminds me of a dove draped in the LGBT rainbow flag. The “president-candidate” as he is now called, even claimed this week that “changing the captain” at half-time would lead to an untimely and unsuccessful end to the Havana talks. Read more…

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Colombia’s elections; a nation divided

elections

As Colombians went to bed former president Alvaro Uribe looked on course for a stunning victory in Colombia`s congressional elections.

When the morning coffee arrives they will digest the news that, at the last minute, President Santos` U Party piled on the votes to snatch the top spot away from Uribe.

The U Party looks to have secured 21 seats in the senate making it the largest party, with Uribe`s Centro Democratico taking 20 (or 19 when all the votes are in).

With the coalition parties, the Liberals and Cambio Radical, President Santos should be able to inch over the line to take a majority into the next four years.

But the Conservatives are set to hold the balance of power. Despite polls suggesting they would struggle to break 10%, this most traditional of electoral forces won 1.9 million votes and will take 18 (or 19 when all the votes are in) senate seats. The Conservatives are split with some supporting Uribe and others Santos. It is unknown how they will organize themselves for the next parliament, and their votes are in play.

With 98% of the votes cast, turnout is depressingly less than half, at just over 14 million.  “Blank votes” were a little over 800,000 as most of the discontented didn`t bother to vote. But the null and void votes were high, suggesting voter confusion with the fiendishly complicated ballot paper.

Voter fraud was reported across the country and sadly many of the politicians known to be the clientelist vote-buyers won through.

The good news – on paper – is that Colombia now has a congress with some teeth. There will be a government coalition and a strong opposition, whoever wins the presidential election in May.

For t0o long, Colombia`s congress has been a supine body, used as a plaything of the president. With Alvaro Uribe the likely leader of the opposition this will radically change.

Uribe is joined by other big beasts like Horacio Serpa for the Liberals and Antonio Navarro for the Green Alliance. As we predicted, Jorge Enrique Robledo topped the poll as the senator with the largest number of votes – congratulations senator!

Whipping boys of public opinion Roberto Gerlein (Conservatives) and Roy Barreras (U), were both re-elected, while Claudia Lopez (Green Alliance) the self-styled rebel with a cause stunningly won over 80,000 votes with virtually no party machinery.  She will be a star of the next parliament.

Away from the senate, the second chamber (or house of representatives) saw the U Party win the highest number of votes with, as predicted, here the Uribista Centro Democratico falling away in a far distant fifth.

In a night most can claim some form of victory, the Liberal Party is the surprise loser. Polls suggested they were on course to become the largest party across the two houses, but their vote simply didn`t turn out. The Liberals are battling it out with the U Party to be the chief backer of President Santos – and losing.

These were elections that failed to generate enthusiasm from Colombians increasingly disillusioned with their political masters. With the usual suspects winning, the nation is unlikely to wake up with joy in its heart this morning. The simple truth is that politicians are failing to connect with voters and voters are turning off.

But for all those who for months have claim to be “indignado” – hacked off with the system – just a small number took the effort to turn out and vote making it easier for the traditional parties to win.

We`ll analyse the results and what they mean for the presidential race in more detail over the coming days.

Picture, ADN

Category: Elections, News Review
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Colombia`s elections, what to look out for

votes

Colombians go to the polls on Sunday to elect the most important congress in a generation.

What should you look out for, and what will happen?

First, some stats.

33 million Colombians are eligible to vote, 17 million women and just under 16 million men. There are 97,000 tables and 11,000 polling booths. Half a million Colombians living abroad will vote across 63 countries.

Over 2,400 candidates are fighting three elections, the senate, the house of representatives and the Andean Parliament.

In addition, Colombia`s Green Alliance has an open primary to choose its presidential candidate.

Now, here are my 10 predictions:

1. A new party, ex-president Alvaro Uribe’s Centro Democratico could win the highest number of senate seats. They have over 20% of the vote, with only the Liberal Party close. Expect the CD to win up to 25 seats.

2. Corruption will reach historic levels. Top Green Alliance hopeful Antonio Navarro says vote buying is “ferocious”, while reports claim candidates are pumping up to 5 billion pesos into their campaigns. Votes are changing hands for as little as $24 USD in some areas but rise to $150 USD in others. These will be the most expensive elections on record.

3. Left-winger Jorge Enrique Robledo could emerge as the senator with the highest number of votes. Robledo has been the most visible opposition parliamentarian of the last four years and is charismatic, forensic and indefatigable. A politician of some real conviction. You may not agree with his politics but it’s hard not to admire the man.

4. Apathy and protest will rule. The voto en blanco – literally blank vote – could emerge with the highest share of the vote. Polls suggests that north of 20% of Colombians will register their antipathy towards to the political class by refusing to vote for any of the candidates available. Sadly, abstention will also be high; over 50%.

5. The Conservatives and the U Party will see their vote collapse. The U won 28 senate seats in 2010 as the party of Alvaro Uribe, but Uribe has ditched them. The U are currently the largest party in the senate, but will lose around 50% of their seats tomorrow. The Conservatives have been particularly hit by corruption charges and are divided between those who support Santos and those who side with Uribe. Once the largest political force in the land, the blues will be reduced to fewer than 15 senators.

6. Left Wing Polo Democrats will continue to struggle to make an electoral impact, perhaps falling behind the newly formed left grouping, the Green Alliance. Robledo will of course be there, but he will be joined by fewer than a handful of senators.

7. Over 100 candidates are alleged to have links with paramilitaries. In some cases politicians already convicted of working or being financed by these brutal far right militias have simply passed their candidacy and their “votes” to family members. Verdad Abierta have also revealed that 35 candidates are themselves under investigation for parapolitics. The parapolitics scandal will come back into focus as later this year hundreds of demobilized paramilitaries will be released from jail.

8. Enrique Peñalosa by a mile will win the Green Alliance presidential primary. Over night Peñalosa will be transformed into the main challenger to President Santos in the May presidential elections.

9. 20% of those elected will be entering congress for the first time. Hardly the “renovation” politicians have been calling for, but a start. About the same percentage of winners will be women.

10. Although FARC guerrillas have threatened to terrorize the vote across 181 municipal areas, they will be largely thwarted by Defence Minister Pinzon’s action to put 266,000 members of the armed forces on the streets to monitor 99.9% of the voting booths. Pinzon claims these elections will be the safest in recent history. They must be.

These elections will change the way politics is conducted over the next four years. President Santos has enjoyed a coalition of over 90% of congress, meaning the legislature has been, well, a bit of a patsy in recent years.

If Santos is re-elected he will face major opposition from within the new parliament. He may even struggle to establish a majority. It will depend on how many seats Uribe`s CD wins and how many of the Conservatives will sit and vote with Uribe`s group.

With the return to the arena of Colombia`s political big beasts like Antonio Navarro (Green), Horacio Serpa (Liberal), and Alvaro Uribe (Centro Democratico), the next parliament is set to be a lively place. On paper this should be good for democracy. Whether the polarized nature of debate will help the governing of country is quite another thing, however.

This is the congress that will implement the peace accords with the FARC and prepare Colombia for post-conflict; it is the most important in a generation.

What should – but probably won`t – worry politicians is the level of distrust and contempt the electorate have for their elected representatives.

As abstention and protest votes emerge as the real winners on Sunday, the mandates of those elected to the 2014-18 parliament will be weaker than ever.

Politicians’ failure to represent the will of the people will undermine their ability to deliver the urgent reforms the nation needs. Or perhaps someone will get the message and change the way politics are done in Colombia. Perhaps…

Photo, Vanguardia

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Who to vote for? Education is the answer

laprofe

Martha Elena Perez is candidate 30 on the Conservative Senate List this Sunday. Her campaign is “educación es la solución”. We speak to her about her proposals. 

Martha Elena is a university lecturer in Bogota known as La Profe. She might be on the Conservatives’ list, but Martha Elena is not part of the traditional political machinery, and is relying on a grassroots campaign on a key issue she not only believes is crucial for Colombia`s future, but of which she has a life time`s hands-on experience; education.

Softly spoken with a steely character, Martha Elena instantly charms with her beaming smile. She is polite but direct, not prone to the – how shall I put it? – pompous verbosity that characterises much of Colombia`s political class. You could say she is a breath of fresh air.

CP: Why did you choose education as the focus of your campaign?

MEP: Only education can correct the inequality in Colombia.

International and government tests have shown the current education system is worsening this inequality. The OECD ranked us a dishonourable 62nd of 65 countries in its latest PISA tests.

The OECD’s results show us there is a major difference in private and state school kids’ performance in reading, writing, science and maths.  This gulf also exists between boy and girls.

We can’t allow education to continue to be stratified. We can`t have kids’ access to education decided on their social status.

CP:  It’s a question of raising standards, then?

MEP: Yes, in Colombia education quality needs to be across the board – a high standard of education for all children, independent of their social class, their gender, what their parents do, and where they live.

CP: What about the recent news that some private institutions are charging students for sub-standard courses?

MEP: Both public and private education should offer quality and if those who run the business of private education are offering sub-standard education they’re ripping off parents. And if public education is bad, they`re ripping off all Colombians.

CP: So how do you improve quality?

MEP: We have to focus on the key players; the teachers.

We must attract, train and keep the best teachers. The social importance of their work needs to be recognised, and appropriately remunerated.

We have to look again at teaching methods focusing on creativity and an integrated and rounded education. We can’t continue teaching our kids with tactics from the last century.

CP: What about the cost of higher education in particular?

MEP: It’s essential we financially support those students who need it. We’re going to get back to what the ICETEX was designed to do – act as a development bank for students. At the moment it is charging interests on interests and using third party agencies to threaten and intimidate families. The ICETEX must go back to doing what it is good at.

CP: What role does education play in citizenship?

MEP: Education should help form values in our children. Values like respect, honesty and solidarity. We need urgently to work on citizenship. No citizen with knowledge is a prisoner of corrupt politicians and is empowered to defend freedom and democracy.

CP: That’s one of your campaign slogans?

MEP: Quite! We stand for an education that teaches us not to be subservient.

CP: Very necessary in a Colombia of “doctores y sumercedes”. Finally, tell me a bit about your campaign.

MEP: We’re not running a traditional political campaign. Politics should be about proposals and we’re focusing on a clear message, building a movement to lobby and campaign for education.

We’re involving students and young people inviting people to get involved through our hashtag #educacióneslasolución asking them to send in their photos in support.

educeduc2educ5educ4

It’s a grassroots campaign, the way politics should be. Check out our facebook page and join in.

CP: Thanks, and good luck on Sunday.

People always tell me there are no candidates worth voting for in Colombia’s congressional elections this Sunday. I think this is wrong. There are some excellent candidates with conviction, passion, and above all, proposals for Colombia`s future.

Yes, it’s easy to understand the scepticism and the disillusionment with Colombia’s political class. It’s time to look beyond the traditional families, the corrupt vote-buyers and the paramilitary financed ne’er-do-wells.

Of the thousands of candidates to the senate and the house of representatives we’ve decided to focus on one in particular to give a flavour of the future. We wish Martha Elena well, and hope to see her as a senator fighting for education.

Category: Elections, News Review
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24 Dollars for your vote

compro

Votes are up for sale for as little as 50,000 pesos as Colombia goes to the polls this Sunday.

That’s what candidates are now saying openly as widespread vote-buying has led Semana magazine to call these elections the most expensive on record.

Ok, Semana points out, the CNE (national electoral council) does set limits on candidate spending, but these are ignored as some hopefuls spend an eye-watering 5 billion pesos to secure victory.

Colombians refer to “votos de opinion” and “votos amarrados” to make the distinction between politicians who try to win popular support and those who resort to clientelism (or a bit of both).

None of this is denied by the political class. In fact, corruption of the electoral process is considered endemic, and precious little is now done either to monitor or prevent it.

Real change is urgent, but there seems little appetite for this from a government itself accused of clientelism.

The Santos administration has allegedly handed out more than 1.5 billion dollars in “mermelada” or “jam”. Some of this money it is rumoured goes direct to the campaign finances.

I know it sounds incredible to suggest the government is using tax payers’ money to subsidise corrupt politicians to pervert the electoral process, but it’s an allegation few even bother to refute.

Now some have said to me that I can’t be right, that vote-buying wouldn’t work, that there is no way of knowing whether the investment has paid off, whether the elector has done what he or she has been paid to do.

Well, it’s true that it’s impossible to be 100% secure, but these election machines are no amateurs. Votes may cost 50,000 in a poorer part of the country, but 100,000 pesos is more common in wealthier or hotly contested areas.  Add to this market dynamics – the closer we get to the day, and the more desperate the candidate – and you see there’s plenty of money at stake.  It should be no surprise, then that the candidates have developed sophisticated-ish strategies to ensure their money is efficiently and successfully spent.

Thankfully, I do not have to betray confidences to explain how this works. La Silla Vacia have rather helpfully provided a “manual for how win elections”.  Effectively, parties and candidates break the electorate down into small zones. Each area has a “leader” in charge of securing names addresses etc of those willing to be bought off. This leader tells the campaign organizers how many votes he has and therefore how much money he needs to receive from the kitty. These voters are told to go to a specific voting booth, mark the appropriate box, and then pocket the money. If the leader has, say 250 votes from area A, he sends them to polling booth B. If in polling booth B there are at least 250 votes everyone`s happy. These operations work across the country forming a network of corrupt cells.

Depressing? You bet.

Unless the rules of the game are changed and the political turkeys decide to vote for Christmas, Colombia`s elections will continue to be distorted by criminality.

The Electoral Observation Mission are doing a sterling job in bringing cases of fraud to light – they point out that it’s not just vote-buying that we have to worry about – but without real action, throwing politicians, community “leaders” and even voters in jail, how realistic is it to expect things to change?

Thankfully we need not despair entirely. Not all candidates are created equal and there are conviction politicians to choose from. The new government must act to make it easier for these candidates to triumph against the corrupt.

Ultimately though, it`s up to the electorate not to sell their vote. It`s time for citizens to do their bit. Roosevelt said, “A vote is like a rifle: its usefulness depends upon the character of the user.”

Photo, El Tiempo

Category: Comment, Elections
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More women in Colombian politics, please

mujerespolitica

Women make up only 25% of the candidates in this year`s elections.  Sadly, most stand little chance of being elected, and are way down on the ballot paper.

The law says 30% of senate and congress hopefuls must be women, but many complain this is largely irrelevant if these candidates are mere also-rans.

The news is not all doom and gloom, however. Former President Alvaro Uribe`s right-wing Centro Democratico party, has women in 4 of its top 5 senate spots, while the Conservatives have Marta Lucia Ramirez and Polo Democrats Clara Lopez, as their presidential candidates.

Equally, there are high profile candidates in the Alianza Verde like Claudia Lopez (senate), and Angelica Lozano and Angela Robledo (house of representatives).

Despite this, Colombia`s politics remain a largely male preserve.

Now don`t get me wrong, I`m no politically correct ideologue, nor do I subscribe to the “if only women ruled the world…” club. There`s nothing intrinsically better about women rather than men in power.

However, I do think that balance in politics is healthy. Just as there is a problem that Colombia`s political class is overwhelmingly Bogotano and overwhelmingly white and rich, there is also a problem that it is distinctly machista.

Democracy is dependent on pluralism of ideas and ideologies. If it is to be truly representative, democracy must also have space for different genders, different classes, and different races.

What can be done?

Under-representation is an historic problem for Colombianas. Colombia was one of the last countries in the Americas to give women the vote (1957 the first time they could go to the polls), and although for example the law now establishes a quota for ministerial positions, the rate of progress is slow. Just 16 of the 102 senators and 22 of the 166 house representatives are women; 3 governors and just 10% of mayors are female.

Yet although Colombia is often called a machista society, Colombian women are strong – frankly they are often the ones who “wear the trousers”. Make no mistake, this is no Taleban nation; Colombia rightly celebrates womanhood.

It`s not a case then of radically changing society. Yes, attitudes in some are outdated and discriminatory, but the country as a whole is more modern in this respect than it is given credit for.

Perhaps instead of revolutionary change, we`re talking about subtle but real action. The steps to the top are there, we just need to ease the way for women to climb them.

For starters, how about the next president establishes a powerful Minister for Women, a cabinet position with real power? This need not be a quota, but something and someone of substance. Yes there is a position already in place loosely to promote equality, but let`s beef this up, focus it and put a high profile, hard hitter in the role.

How about we also hold the next president to account over the number of women he has in his cabinet. Santos has struggled to fill these positions. If he wins next time, he must do better.

The political parties themselves must take action too. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) almost half of the parties have no women on the board, and none have quotas for internal elections. A quarter also fail to have an “office” for women`s issues, and a third have no working plan to promote engagement with women.

51% of Colombians are women, but just 12% of the nation`s political posts are filled by women. They are a majority but without political representation.

This must change.

Photo, El Colombiano

Category: Comment, Elections