Tweet about this on TwitterShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInPin on PinterestShare on RedditShare on Google+

Martha-Lucia-Ramirez-Candidata

Presidential hopeful Marta Lucia Ramirez was yesterday elected as the Conservative party`s candidate to fight Juan Manuel Santos in May`s elections.

Speculation is already growing that Alvaro Uribe loyalists will join forces with Ramirez making her a real prospect as Colombia`s first woman president.

The race is wide open as Santos languishes on 26%, while the majority of Colombians say they are undecided or will spoil their ballot.

Yes, Ramirez`s own polling figures currently barely register, but Colombia`s politics are a rare beast, and Alvaro Uribe himself won 2002`s presidential race in the first round just months after he had been written off as an also ran.

Santos is an unpopular president but he has the support of 90 per cent of the congress – which his opponents accuse him of buying off with over 1.5 billion dollars of “mermelada”, or jam.

Even with the support of senators, congressmen, governors and the U Party, the Liberals, Cambio Radical and a hotchpotch of others, it is almost impossible to see Santos winning the 50% needed to secure victory in the first round. That means he must face a run off against the second placed candidate.

At this stage – if not before – Uribistas could swing their weight behind Ramirez making her candidature difficult to beat. Uribe`s movement elected Oscar Ivan Zuluaga as their candidate just three months ago, but Colombians have turned up their noses at his uninspiring campaign, and privately many Uribistas have been pitching around for a new face.

Support for Uribe has certainly fallen in recent months, but he remains popular in much of rural Colombia – where the Conservatives are also strong.

Ramirez`s biggest challenge will be to hold together her divided party.

The Conservatives remain part of Santos` national coalition government and many of the parliamentarians still favour joining the Santos re-election campaign.

Ramirez and her allies accuse the parliamentarians of siding with Santos not because of ideological coincidence but because they`ve grown fond of the taste of the jam.

Ramirez alleges senators like Santos supporting Arturo Yepes paid for transport food and board for delegates to attend yesterday`s conference – from which Ramirez emerged victorious – and vote to down Ramirez`s candidature.

The decision by Conservative party activists to go against the wishes of their parliamentary representatives is seen as a rebellion against the political class.

Ramirez announced her candidacy in January 2013 and Colombia Politics argued then that she was the Conservatives` best hope of returning to power after more than a decade on the sidelines.  Since then we`ve met her a few times and have been struck by her clarity. She may remain unknown to large swathes of the nation, but unlike many politicians she has a clear agenda. She has less than four months to sell this to the country.

Is she a realistic hope for Colombia`s first female president?

Picture, Semana

Tweet about this on TwitterShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInPin on PinterestShare on RedditShare on Google+

Kevin Howlett

Kevin is a political consultant and lobbyist who cut his teeth working in the UK Parliament. He is a regular panelist on Colombian television, a political communication strategist and a university lecturer. Kevin is the founder and editor of Colombia Politics.