#Mockus

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Colombia`s media are wrong; election is up for grabs

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Don`t believe the hype or the Santos friendly media; 2014 is an election where anything could happen.

Polls show just 25% of the nation wants Santos to be re-elected. And 50% – yes 50%! – of Colombians can`t decide who to vote for or will spoil their ballot in protest at the poverty of choice.

Odd then that the media go with “Santos; the candidate with the best image” and “Santos; ahead by miles”.

An independent journalist might suggest Santos is as popular as Lady Thatcher in an English mining town. To propose he is already on course to win by a landslide is, well, tosh isn`t it.

I know I bang on about how the media is conveniently cosy with the government (not just this one, but who ever the government of the time is). But for me the media should always be the fourth branch of power, a force holding politicians to account not brown nosing.

You think I`m exaggerating about the relationship between the media and Santos? Tune your dial to Hora 20 on Caracol Radio, or BluRadio`s morning programme and you`ll hear that even journos themselves accept the argument.

So, let`s ignore those who say it`s all a foregone conclusion.

Let`s look at the reality.

Santos is ahead of his rivals? Yes. In fact, add the percentage points of the other candidates together and Santos is still above them.

Santos has the support of the parliament? Yes. He has built a coalition of over 90% of congress and now has the U Party, the Liberals and Cambio Radical officially supporting his candidature. Even some Conservatives will unofficially support him despite having their own candidate. Weird? You bet.

Santos has the media on side? Ave María, of course.

So, yes he`s on course to win. There is no one at the moment that looks ready to take him on. On the right, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, former president Alvaro Uribe`s choice, has sunk without trace, now on 8%, while the affable Clara Lopez on the left struggles to get above 5%.

Conservatives`Marta Lucia Ramirez has only just got going – she has been a candidate for less than a fortnight, and Enrique Peñalosa, a possible for the Greens, won`t formalize his candidature until March.

Santos is the clear favourite? Absolutely.

But…if 50% of the electorate is up for grabs and two thirds are against the president`s re-election, well it`s not as clear cut as the experts would like us to believe.

Think back to the “Green Wave” of Antanas Mockus in 2010. Mockus almost over night surged into what looked like an unassailable lead in the polls. His message of education reform and a crack-down on corruption had Santos pegged back, languishing even.

Mockus bottled it though in a series of painful interviews and debates and Santos – with the help of Uribe and campaign strategist JJ Rendon – went on to win with a record number of votes.

Remember too that in 2002 Alvaro Uribe burst onto the scene, coming from a very lowly position in the polls to win in the first round (which meant he won over 50% of the vote).

To my mind it doesn`t take that much imagination to see something similar this time round. Dissatisfaction with the old style of politics is at record levels, Santos is desperately unpopular in parts of the country, and let`s face it, he`s not the best communicator or campaigner.

A candidate with a clear message representing something slighty different could wipe the floor with him.

I`ve lamented before that there is no such candidate. Well, how about Enrique Peñalosa? He`s not even a candidate yet but registers 10% in some polls. He is well known, has a proven track record of good governance when mayor of Bogota. Ok, so he`s from the capital and is rich, but he`s a little outside of, a little different to the political class so loathed by Colombians.

Peñalosa`s advantage is that he is neither a loony lefty nor a reactionary right-winger. His is an ability to shift between the left and the right depending on the issue. As a consequence he attracts support from across the spectrum – just the sort of thing that becomes incredibly useful in the second round run off.

So if Santos fails to win 50% of the vote and he has to go to a run off with the second placed candidate, say Peñalosa the final result is anyone`s guess.

Santos would have his 25% guaranteed, but Peñalosa might just attract more of the 50% of the electorate up for grabs.

The ABS candidate, “Anyone but Santos” is a powerful ticket.

Am I getting ahead of myself? Of course. And does it have to be Peñalosa? No.

The point is that despite what the editors of some national papers seem to want us to believe. With 50% of the electorate in play, the game is very much afoot.

Picture, Mockus` 2010 “Green Wave”.

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Colombia needs an alternative

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Colombia`s presidential election has an air of inevitability about it. Ok, so 66% of Colombians don`t want to re-elect President Santos. But they don`t much fancy the list of other options, either.

Oscar Ivan Zuluaga ex-president Alvaro Uribe`s man, struggles for votes above 15%, while Clara Lopez and other leftie candidates are within the margin of error.

The candidate with the best change of beating Santos is the “voto en blanco”, or the spoilt ballot. He/she currently sits just three points behind the president.

Abstention too has a chance of winning; nearly half of Colombians remain unsure who is the lesser of evils.

We`re six months away from the first round vote in the presidential election (if no candidate wins an absolute majority he or she must face a run off with the second placed runner up) and there is plenty of time for the nation to decide which way to jump.

However, there is a strange sense that it is not that Colombians are undecided, but antipathetic. Abstention might not reflect laziness but a nationwide collective turning up of the nose.

Anecdotally I have found not a soul who wants to see Santos in power come August (when the new president is sworn in). But equally, most struggle to identify an alternative, and confess they may end up voting for him to keep out a worse option (a leftie or a rightie depending on their politics).

Colombia`s democracy is a curious beast, and it would be foolish to pretend that corruption and outright vote buying will not play a significant role in the outcome of the elections. Nevertheless, it IS important what the electorate think and want – despite the best efforts of many to avoid this reality – and a move in voter sentiment if it is particularly strong could bring about real change.

So, while I still believe that Santos should just about scrape home to victory, there are two alternative scenarios:

1. The voto en blanco campaign captures the public mood, and Colombians decide to send a message to their overly oligarchical political class. In the event that the “white wave”, as it is now being called, tops the poll, elections will have to be recalled, with none of the previous candidates allowed to stand again. What fun that would be!

2. A surprise figure, a new, inspiring and intelligent figure emerges to offer change hope and a path to the sunlit uplands…well, we can hope, can´t we? Perhaps the white knight won`t arrive, but a reasonable, palatable politician must be out there somewhere.

In 2002 Alvaro Uribe appeared almost from nowhere. With just months to go he was hopelessly behind, registering very low in the polls, but his populist message of enough is enough led him to take the elections in the first round.

Equally, the Green candidate and former Bogota Mayor, Antanas Mockus in 2010 managed to bring about Colombia`s first social media revolution, building what looked like an unstoppibly popular movement. But Mockus faded just as quickly as he had surged and Santos won comfortably.

So, Colombia is desperately seeking a Mockus; but this time a Mockus with staying power. Education, health, justice – the platforms on which this candidate could run are as endless as the reforms to the system are urgent.

Arise…¡Dios me oiga!

Picture, Global Post

Category: Comment, Elections
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Colombia´s ego-driven presidential race

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Colombia´s `presidential election campaign has yet officially to begin but the list of candidates continues to grow as Green Party former Bogotá Mayor, Enrique Peñalosa this month threw his hat in the ring.

But Peñalosa, like three other candidates pitching for the top job –  Conservatives Martha Lucía Ramírez, and José Félix Lafaurie, and Liberal Eduardo Verano de la Rosa – is not even certain of securing the support of his own party.

Bizarre as it seems, many within the Green Party claim not to have heard about Peñalosa´s candidacy before he went public, and odder still is the party´s muted and ambivalent reaction following the announcement.

Are the Greens really a political party?

The Greens appear split from top to toe. And not only over whether to lend their troops to the Peñalosa front.

Former presidential candidate, Antanas Mockus walked out on his old gang at the end of 2011 when the then Bogotá Mayoral candidate, Peñalosa received the backing of Ex President Alvaro Uribe in his ill-fated campaign.

But worse was to follow when the Greens, under the stewardship of Lucho Garzón, then opted to join forces with President Santos in the National Unity Coalition Government, alienating further the Mockus wing who had campaigned against Santos in the 2010 presidential elections.

So what the Greens will do now is anyone´s guess.

Will they leave the coalition? Will they support Peñalosa? Will they disappear as a party?

Perhaps it is largely irrelevant as Peñalosa appears to be making a punt for the Casa de Nariño with or without the electoral clout (which is in any case rather limited) of his party.

Are parties irrelevant in Colombian politics? 

It´s most unfortunate for a politician to announce his campaign before being sure of his colleagues´support. But for there to be four such politicians in the same boat is careless indeed.

Political parties in Colombia risk becoming an irrelevance in an increasingly personalized system.

The parties are subordinating themselves to the whims of their would-be leaders.

Take for example Martha Lucía Ramírez. She is pitching to be the Conservatives´ candidate, but she is really after the support of Alvaro Uribe – and the same is true of Lafaurie, and perhaps even Peñalosa. The support of the Conservatives would be nice, it would secure her more votes, but politically, policy wise is it relevant? Is she, does she believe she is bigger than her party?

Ok, you might argue there is nothing wrong the idea of a coalition of interests or parties. Fair enough, but in this case no word has been mentioned of the politics themselves, no platforms are forthcoming. The candidates are engaged in nothing more edifying than a beauty parade.

And the parties themselves? Like judges on a talent show, perhaps.

Maybe their strategy is to wait until it becomes clear who is most likely to win and then swing behind them in the hope of gaining positions in a future government – even if that person does not represent the true “values” of the party…

Rather worryingly the Conservatives are not even sure whether they will run their own candidate – despite having a couple to choose from if they were minded to do so.

There are those within the grouping that suggest they should stick with the Santos campaign to ensure they continue enjoying the trappings of power…though the Conservatives in reality share little in common with the politics of the president.

Any different with the Uribistas?

Yes, within Uribe´s Centro Democratico movement, we know there WILL be a candidate who receives Uribe´s backing.  We also know that there are a at least three who have a chance of emerging with the CD seal of approval. Francisco, “Pacho” Santos, Vice-President in Uribe´s government and cousin of President Juan Manuel Santos leads the way, but there is plenty of time for this to change.

Uribe could have his pick of Peñalosa, Ramírez and Lafaurie too.

Plenty of leg showing, but very little trouser?

Too many candidates spoil both the broth and the appetite for politics. The public cannot help but to pinch their noses at the alphabet soup of options.

Lack of political organization and party control means Colombians will be excused if they switch off from next year´s elections in record numbers.

The debate, discourse and democracy would be much better served by two or three candidates each with political proposals and party backing. Oh for a two party state?

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Sergio Fajardo, a political biography

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Medellin born Sergio Fajardo is one of Colombia’s most recognized and acclaimed independently minded politicians.  His rising political career, which includes holding mayoral office in Medellin, a vice presidential candidacy for national government, and a current tenure as Governor of Antioquia, make Fajardo an optioned presidential hopeful in the short and medium term. His successful governance outcomes have motivated the Colombian Green Party’s attempt to position Fajardo as their presidential candidate for the 2014 presidential election.

Fajardo’s career began far away from politics. Before going into public affairs, Fajardo was an academic; he obtained a Ph.D in Mathematics from University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1984, and a BSc from Universidad de los Andes in 1977. After concluding his studies, Fajardo proved to be an able teacher, researcher and scientist. This led him to occupy posts such as The National Council of Basic Sciences and the National Comission of Masters and Doctorates.

His transition from academia to politics was not sudden or unexepected. Sporadically, Fajardo began to make a name for himself in public life, fist publishing occasional opinion articles, then participating in different social fora. In 1995, Fajardo was asked to be a member of the Comisión Facilitadora de Paz de Antioquia, alongside Nobel Peace Prize laureate Oscar Arias, as well as other recognized figures.

After gaining political visibility, Fajardo went on to create the, today extinct, Compromiso Ciudadano movement, alongside influential artists, thinkers, and businessmen including current Medellin mayor Alonso Salazar. Under the banner of independent and clean politics, Fajardo managed to secure an unexpected third place in the Medellin mayoral race of 2000. This largely unpredicted result, gave Fajardo enough confidence and political capital to become a serious contender in Colombian politics. True to his independent, anti-ideological style, Fajardo rejected the invitation to become a part of the Frente Social Amplio left-oriented movement.

In 2003 Fajardo, once again, attempted to become Mayor of Medellin, representing the Alianza Social Indigena movement. He secured an overwhelming victory with 210.000 votes, thus becoming Medellin mayor from 2004 until 2007. His time in office is well remembered for his successful performance.

While in office, Fajardo managed to transform the city of Medellin, as well as, public administration in Medellin. Responsible public spending, record numbers in social investment, a pronounced decrease in crime, and social inclusion policies made Fajardo the recipient of many national and international prizes of good governance, and successful public administration.  Furthermore, Fajardo managed to renovate the reputation and performance of the public sector in the city of Medellin.

After his successful term as mayor, Fajardo decided in 2008 to try to run for the presidency of Colombia, with the aim of winning the 2010 election. In a time of intense political polarization and continuous government scandal, Fajardo opted to position his movement as entirely independent. Claiming to be neither left, nor right, not uribista, and not anti-uribista, Fajardo joined the short-lived “quintuplets” movement (alongside Antanas Mockus, Enrique Peñalosa, Marta Lucía Ramírez, and Luis Eduardo Garzón). He left after his demand to be their presidential candidate was denied.

Fajardo carried on in his presidential attempt however, visiting the different regions of Colombia and campaigning in the streets with a face-to-face approach towards the people. He also led a movement of candidates for the senate, which failed to secure any congressional seat. After this defeat, Fajardo accepted an invitation from the Green Party to be fellow scientist Antanas Mockus’ running mate for the 2010 presidential election.

Alas, Fajardo once again suffered defeat, as Mockus came second in the election of 2010. This did not stop Fajardo from seeking political office, thus, as a member of the Green Party, he became Governor of Antioquia in 2011, promising to replicate the successful policies he implemented in Medellin. As the Governor of Antioquia, amongst other things, Fajardo has published a public administration report titled “The White Book”.  This report has helped to increase transparency and show the high levels of corruption and negligent management of the previous administrations.

Category: Comment, Profiles
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Green Party to fight for Colombia´s presidency

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Colombia´s Green Party announced that a public consultation will take place this month to decide its candidate for next year’s presidential elections.

The announcement of a contest came during a meeting of the key members of the party at the weekend in Medellin, and the favourite to lead the party into next year’s vote is the current Governor of Antioquia and former mayor of Medellin Sergio Fajardo.

The Green Party have close to no chance of winning the presidency in next year’s election with nationwide support being somewhat limited. The party currently holds five seats in the Senate and three in the Chamber of Representatives. However, during the last presidential election in 2010 the Green Party Candidate Antanas Mockus enjoyed significant support in urban areas and made it through to the second round of voting where he lost to Santos.

Fajardo, like Mockus, is a mathematician and held a number of senior positions within academia before moving into public life. As mayor of Medellin between 2003-2007, his tenure saw a reduction in violence in the city and sound management of the public finances. He was also voted the best mayor of Colombia as well as “Personality of Latin America” by the Financial Times during this time. Farjardo also has links with the Colombian media having worked with various national newspapers and Caracol Radio. It is whispered that he will hand in his resignation as the Governor of Antioquia in the coming weeks in order to fight for the candidacy.

Also in the running for the candidacy are two former mayors of Bogota, Lucho Garzon and Enrique Peñalosa. Though the Green Party’s fight for the presidency is not likely to be a fruitful one,  they certainly bring an interesting dynamic to Colombian politics, and their popularity among young people is down their refreshingly optimistic and principled take on key issues.

Category: News Review
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Mockus/Parody pact – a new politics for Bogota?

The Mockus Parody pact, photo Terra

The future of Bogota is at stake on 30 October 2011. Outgoing Mayor Samuel Moreno is in jail as he faces trial for corruption on a monumental scale. He leaves behind him a city in desperate need of strong political leadership, and drastic change. Bogotanos know they must choose wisely.

Whoever wins needs a clear mandate. But polls show that the electorate are hopelessly divided. There is a bewildering number of candidates to choose from and votes are spread relatively evenly, and consequently thinly. Worryingly, neither of the two front runners – Gustavo Petro and Enrique Penalosa – are polling above even 20%. What Bogota desperately doesn’t need is a mayor who’s scraped to victory.

Welcome news today then that former mayor Antanas Mockus and Gina Parody have joined forces and will now stand on the same platform. This narrows the field, offering a chance to vote both for experience and a fresh state at the same time – an always intoxicating political cocktail.

Two days ago, this website reported on Penalosa’s bid, and Uribe’s support – this story eclipses that.

Why is this year’s race so important?

There are four million Bogotanos eligible to vote; and they have five weeks to decide for whom. Before today there were 11 candidates in the race.

Amid the understandable voter confusion, one thing is clear – Bogota needs a leader committed to, and capable of, undoing the legacy of the last few years. Public fiances are deep in the red, long-overdue infrastructure works remain incomplete, or un-started, while corruption and day-to-day security appear to have worsened, rather than improved.

For the most part Bogota remains a hugely successful city, but public confidence in its governance has nose-dived. Only three in ten Bogotanos believes the city is on the right track.

In 2003 Mockus and Penalosa handed over a city transformed. Infamously toxic unsafe and chaotic, Bogota was shunned by investors and tourists in the 80s and early 90s. But Bogota is now a modern city, the financial heart of the fourth largest economy in the region, a tourist mecca and one of Latin America’s greenest and most live-able cities.

Recent bad government has not ruined the city (as some more alarmist commentators appear to suggest) – but it has failed in its duty to continue its improvement. Mockus and Penalosa’s work must be built on, not undone.

Bogota must elect a politician who can restore public confidence in the office and recapture the spirit of the Mockus and Penalosa years. The Mockus/Parody union will attract voters tempted by the experience and success of Mockus’ previous time in office but who are also looking for a different type of politics – that offered by the independent voice of a new generation of politicians.

Does today’s news change the race?

Yes – but it’s too early to tell whether this move has blown it wide open. How will the other candidates respond?

Parties and candidates have until Friday to decide what to do. After that, no further changes can be made to the ballot paper. Two questions remain to be answered between now and then. Will there be any further alliances, and which of the Mockus/Parody pact will be chosen to lead the movement?

Listening to interviews with both Parody and Mockus today, it’s clear both are being coy about whose name will appear before voters on October 30. The calculation must be whether voters on balance want the hope of the new or the voice of experience. We’ll find out what their advisers conclude on/by Friday.

Category: Bogotá, Comment