How can we rebuild trust in Colombia`s military?
How to repair a reputation trashed by corruption, illegal espionage, and extra-judiciary civilian killings?
Two major scandals in less than a week have forced Santos to sack his military top brass and promise a purge of the bad apples in the lower ranks.
But this is unlikely to arrest the decline in the institution`s standing. Read more…
Colombia`s President Juan Manuel Santos remains mute on rising tensions across the border in Venezuela. He has a duty to break this silence and speak out against the apparent tyranny and oppression.
Venezuela`s Chavista regime stands accused of human rights violations, repression, torture, and censorship as it cracks down on nationwide anti-government protests.
Venezuelans took to the streets on 12 February in opposition to an administration that has shredded the economy, lost control of law and order and appears to be on the verge of losing its suffocating 15 year grip on power.
What began as a peaceful protest on Thursday morning soon turned violent as armed civilian groups and police repelled the crowds. Tragically for some, death and imprisonment awaited. Reports of torture and rape later emerged.
Meanwhile, Maduro acted to censor the media. Colombian TV news channel NTN24 was blocked in homes across the nation, while indignados published shocking pictures of beatings and harassment of national and international journalists.
Protesters, now almost entirely reliant on social networks for their news, soon found Twitter images had been disappeared by state forces.
Violations of human rights and of freedom of speech are of course nothing new in the Chavista Venezuela.
Human Rights Watch`s most recent report blames Hugo Chavez for “the accumulation of power in the executive branch and the erosion of human rights guarantees have enabled his government to intimidate, censor, and prosecute Venezuelans who criticize the president or thwart his political agenda”.
But for many, things are even worse under Maduro.
Those now arguing Venezuela is on the way to becoming a fully blown dictatorship are growing in number.
Yes, elections might have been held last year and Maduro won them (though the result itself is contested), but elections do not a democracy make.
Maduro himself brushes off the attacks on his government claiming they are manufactured by a “fascist” opposition, with the help of the USA. Their aim? To provoke civil unrest and bring about a coup de etat.
But more and more are now calling Maduro`s bluff. The Colombian writer Hector Abad asks us who the real fascists are:
“The typical fascist is at the same time a revolutionary and a reactionary. A nationalist, anti-capitalist and populist. He likes to divide the society into friends and enemies, loyalists and traitors… They act like fascists but accuse opponents of fascism”.
For Abad, fascism in Venezuela is just a step away.
All the while, there is a deafening silence from Colombia`s presidential palace.
Any attack on Maduro and Santos risks derailing the peace talks with the FARC guerrillas.
But Santos cannot remain tight-lipped for ever. Unrest is in danger of spiraling out of control. Time to stand up for democracy and freedom, Mr Santos. Time to speak up for Venezuela.
Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos goes to the polls in May promising to bring peace to Colombia if he is re-elected for a second term.
Rumours say the campaign slogan will be “Unidos por la paz” (“United for peace”).
But is peace really enough?
Colombia is at a crossroads. After a decade of record levels of foreign investment, with peace on the horizon, and an economy now bigger than Argentina`s, there is a unique opportunity for Colombia to secure its place at the top table.
But Colombia faces real and structural problems that block the way.
A politician not willing to show us the way to the promised land does not deserve another four years in power.
Time then, Mr President to tell how you will fix:
1. Colombia`s education system which last year was rated among the world`s worst.
2. A health service you promised to reform three years ago but remains unfit for purpose.
3. Infrastructure, for which you promised billions of dollars of investment but have failed to get spades in the ground.
4. Corruption; despite your government passing a host of legislation, Transparency International last year gave Colombia its worst score in 10 years.
5. A sclerotic justice system where – according to the World Bank – it takes four years to enforce a contract.
6. Rural Colombia and the agribusiness on which 50% of the nation is dependent. We`re six months on from the nation-wide rural protests but we still await a plan for a sustainable future for the nation`s farmers.
7. Law and order. You say crime is down and certainly homicides rates are moving in the right direction, but Colombians feel less not more safe since you have come to power.
8. Poverty, you have made progress in some areas but 10 per cent of the nation still live on little more than a dollar a day and 40% of Colombians are poor according to your own figures.
Politics should be about solutions to these and many other problems facing the nation. 2014`s election campaign has avoided this debate.
Yes, Colombia Politics supports Santos` bold efforts to negotiate with FARC guerrillas to end 50 years of conflict. But this election cannot be reduced to a vote on whether to support peace or to continue with the war.
Time to end the demagoguery Mr President and tell us what you`ll do to make Colombia the country its people deserve.
Don`t believe the hype or the Santos friendly media; 2014 is an election where anything could happen.
Polls show just 25% of the nation wants Santos to be re-elected. And 50% – yes 50%! – of Colombians can`t decide who to vote for or will spoil their ballot in protest at the poverty of choice.
Odd then that the media go with “Santos; the candidate with the best image” and “Santos; ahead by miles”.
An independent journalist might suggest Santos is as popular as Lady Thatcher in an English mining town. To propose he is already on course to win by a landslide is, well, tosh isn`t it.
I know I bang on about how the media is conveniently cosy with the government (not just this one, but who ever the government of the time is). But for me the media should always be the fourth branch of power, a force holding politicians to account not brown nosing.
You think I`m exaggerating about the relationship between the media and Santos? Tune your dial to Hora 20 on Caracol Radio, or BluRadio`s morning programme and you`ll hear that even journos themselves accept the argument.
So, let`s ignore those who say it`s all a foregone conclusion.
Let`s look at the reality.
Santos is ahead of his rivals? Yes. In fact, add the percentage points of the other candidates together and Santos is still above them.
Santos has the support of the parliament? Yes. He has built a coalition of over 90% of congress and now has the U Party, the Liberals and Cambio Radical officially supporting his candidature. Even some Conservatives will unofficially support him despite having their own candidate. Weird? You bet.
Santos has the media on side? Ave María, of course.
So, yes he`s on course to win. There is no one at the moment that looks ready to take him on. On the right, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, former president Alvaro Uribe`s choice, has sunk without trace, now on 8%, while the affable Clara Lopez on the left struggles to get above 5%.
Conservatives`Marta Lucia Ramirez has only just got going – she has been a candidate for less than a fortnight, and Enrique Peñalosa, a possible for the Greens, won`t formalize his candidature until March.
Santos is the clear favourite? Absolutely.
But…if 50% of the electorate is up for grabs and two thirds are against the president`s re-election, well it`s not as clear cut as the experts would like us to believe.
Think back to the “Green Wave” of Antanas Mockus in 2010. Mockus almost over night surged into what looked like an unassailable lead in the polls. His message of education reform and a crack-down on corruption had Santos pegged back, languishing even.
Mockus bottled it though in a series of painful interviews and debates and Santos – with the help of Uribe and campaign strategist JJ Rendon – went on to win with a record number of votes.
Remember too that in 2002 Alvaro Uribe burst onto the scene, coming from a very lowly position in the polls to win in the first round (which meant he won over 50% of the vote).
To my mind it doesn`t take that much imagination to see something similar this time round. Dissatisfaction with the old style of politics is at record levels, Santos is desperately unpopular in parts of the country, and let`s face it, he`s not the best communicator or campaigner.
A candidate with a clear message representing something slighty different could wipe the floor with him.
I`ve lamented before that there is no such candidate. Well, how about Enrique Peñalosa? He`s not even a candidate yet but registers 10% in some polls. He is well known, has a proven track record of good governance when mayor of Bogota. Ok, so he`s from the capital and is rich, but he`s a little outside of, a little different to the political class so loathed by Colombians.
Peñalosa`s advantage is that he is neither a loony lefty nor a reactionary right-winger. His is an ability to shift between the left and the right depending on the issue. As a consequence he attracts support from across the spectrum – just the sort of thing that becomes incredibly useful in the second round run off.
So if Santos fails to win 50% of the vote and he has to go to a run off with the second placed candidate, say Peñalosa the final result is anyone`s guess.
Santos would have his 25% guaranteed, but Peñalosa might just attract more of the 50% of the electorate up for grabs.
The ABS candidate, “Anyone but Santos” is a powerful ticket.
Am I getting ahead of myself? Of course. And does it have to be Peñalosa? No.
The point is that despite what the editors of some national papers seem to want us to believe. With 50% of the electorate in play, the game is very much afoot.
Picture, Mockus` 2010 “Green Wave”.
Presidential hopeful Marta Lucia Ramirez was yesterday elected as the Conservative party`s candidate to fight Juan Manuel Santos in May`s elections.
Speculation is already growing that Alvaro Uribe loyalists will join forces with Ramirez making her a real prospect as Colombia`s first woman president.
The race is wide open as Santos languishes on 26%, while the majority of Colombians say they are undecided or will spoil their ballot.
Yes, Ramirez`s own polling figures currently barely register, but Colombia`s politics are a rare beast, and Alvaro Uribe himself won 2002`s presidential race in the first round just months after he had been written off as an also ran.
Santos is an unpopular president but he has the support of 90 per cent of the congress – which his opponents accuse him of buying off with over 1.5 billion dollars of “mermelada”, or jam.
Even with the support of senators, congressmen, governors and the U Party, the Liberals, Cambio Radical and a hotchpotch of others, it is almost impossible to see Santos winning the 50% needed to secure victory in the first round. That means he must face a run off against the second placed candidate.
At this stage – if not before – Uribistas could swing their weight behind Ramirez making her candidature difficult to beat. Uribe`s movement elected Oscar Ivan Zuluaga as their candidate just three months ago, but Colombians have turned up their noses at his uninspiring campaign, and privately many Uribistas have been pitching around for a new face.
Support for Uribe has certainly fallen in recent months, but he remains popular in much of rural Colombia – where the Conservatives are also strong.
Ramirez`s biggest challenge will be to hold together her divided party.
The Conservatives remain part of Santos` national coalition government and many of the parliamentarians still favour joining the Santos re-election campaign.
Ramirez and her allies accuse the parliamentarians of siding with Santos not because of ideological coincidence but because they`ve grown fond of the taste of the jam.
Ramirez alleges senators like Santos supporting Arturo Yepes paid for transport food and board for delegates to attend yesterday`s conference – from which Ramirez emerged victorious – and vote to down Ramirez`s candidature.
The decision by Conservative party activists to go against the wishes of their parliamentary representatives is seen as a rebellion against the political class.
Ramirez announced her candidacy in January 2013 and Colombia Politics argued then that she was the Conservatives` best hope of returning to power after more than a decade on the sidelines. Since then we`ve met her a few times and have been struck by her clarity. She may remain unknown to large swathes of the nation, but unlike many politicians she has a clear agenda. She has less than four months to sell this to the country.
Is she a realistic hope for Colombia`s first female president?
Picture, Semana
The accusation is stark. 1.5 billion dollars were spent by the Santos administration on paying off parliamentarians for their support and votes.
Computer files said to have been leaked from the Presidential Palace supposedly reveal wide-scale clientelism at the heart of Colombia`s political class.
Caracol Radio has released what it says is evidence that congressmen and senators have in some cases been handed hundreds of thousands of dollars to “spend on local projects”.
Commentators on Caracol`s leading Hora 20 programme last night alleged that many of these projects had not been delivered, inviting listeners to draw their own conclusion as to where the money had ended up.
In Colombia, this largesse is known as “mermelada” (jam) and the Santos government is seen by many observers as particularly generous in the size of the portions it dollops out.
The president himself has dismissed Caracol`s report as “un cuento”, a made-up story. It could well be. Perhaps the evidence isn`t credible.
However, just listen to the radio or read the columnists and you`ll see that few in Colombia`s political world deny the existence of clientelism (in general if not necessarily in this particular case).
Worryingly, the scale of the practice could be much worse than so far revealed. The files obtained by Caracol do not take into account the most recent months when, as the rumours go, the mouths to feed have grown in number, and the bellies fatter.
Those with longer memories will recall that ex-president Alvaro Uribe`s administration too fell foul of a similar accusation.
In 2008, Yidis Medina was convicted of bribery, and was said to have offered lucrative rewards to those who voted in favour of allowing a constitutional change to permit Uribe`s re-election.
Where ever you are, politics always involves a level of rose-garden-jobs-for-the-boys-kick-back culture.
The question is whether in Colombia it is any worse than elsewhere.
If you listen to commentators and even speak to the politicians themselves, they admit that in Colombia the clientelism is seriously damaging the country`s democracy.
Congresswomen Angela Robledo today wrote in La Silla Vacia that “clientelism has steadily eroded ideology”.
Politicians vote not with their heart or mind, but instead with their pocket, she suggests. Politics loses out to interests, perhaps.
The full break down of the parliamentarians and their alleged regalitos can be found here: http://www.caracol.com.co/noticias/actualidad/mermelada-reeleccionista-por-partido-region-monto-cargos-y-comisiones/20140124/nota/2061848.aspx
Nearly half of Colombia`s work force earn less than the minimum wage, according to figures released by the Labour Ministry last December.
8.8 million Colombians, many of whom work informally or in “rebusque”, live on salaries below 300 US dollars a month. Surprisingly, as little as 6 per cent of the work force is paid the legal low.
Meanwhile, pension firms have revealed the “vast majority of Colombians” (according to Semana magazine) earn just 1-2 times the minimum; or between 300 and 600 dollars a month.
Every new year, the government enters into negotiations with leading businessmen and unions to fix the rate at which the minimum wage will increase.
President Santos this week heralded an “historic” 4.5% rise for 2014.
Those on the left and the right criticised the announcement, however. Former President, Alvaro Uribe – on the right – argued for 6% while Clara Lopez – on the left – said the increase amounted to less than 50 cents or 1,000 pesos a day, “not enough to buy a bag of milk”.
Of course some argue the minimum wage as an idea is counter-productive, while others would like to see a truly historic rise or a “living wage” as has been proposed in other nations.
But the question we have is that if just 6 per cent earn the minimum wage, isn`t focusing debate on a rise here a distraction?
Shouldn`t the government be directing efforts and policies on making it attractive for workers to leave “informality”?
Shouldn`t the government be looking to resolve the structural imbalances in the economy?
Perhaps it`s unfair to say they aren`t.
Santos’ administration has certainly reformed the tax codes and looked – or at least has said has looked – to diversify the nation`s output.
The problem is, as with much of the work of the current government, the rhetoric appears to outpace the reality. GDP growth is still healthy – pretty good, actually – and foreign investment continues year on year to break records.
Good news!
But this macro-level activity tells just one side of the story. Long term, the government must focus on how it can make Colombians wealthier, to earn more and ultimately spend more.
When I had lunch with left-wing firebrand Jorge Robledo last year he told me that Colombia was a “pre-capitalist” country. His argument was that industry and business doesn`t function because corruption and “la rosca” (nepotism) distorts an immature, “pre-modern” market, as he called it.
Now I think Robledo exagerates, of course. But almost any economist will tell you that for a nation to develop it needs to build a strong middle class with real purchasing power. Colombia has a middle class, and she is progressing better than many of her regional neighbours.
However, she clearly has a long way to go if nearly half the work force earns less than 600,000 pesos.
2013 has been unpredictable. Rural rebellion, polemic peace talks, anti-democratic “coups”, and re-election rumours abounded.
To close this year of locura in our querida Colombia we bring you the best, the worst and the most ridiculous politicians of the past 12 months.
These are the Colombia Politics awards. Happy New Year.
Hero of the year – Nairo Quintana
Nairo is no politician, but his was a gritty and unassuming leadership all the nation admired this year.
While rural Colombia revolted, a bicycling sensation was born as Señor Quintana, claimed second place in his first ever Tour de France, this year.
The humble 23 year old, born to campesinos from Boyaca, stole Colombian hearts as he was first crowned the Tour`s King of the Mountain and then later stepped up to the Parisian podium in July.
Quintana`s story is a folklorically different to the pampered, and elite-trained athletes of Europe and North America.
There were no nutritionists to help Nairo in his teenage years, the diminutive youngster instead relying on Colombia`s carb-heavy culinary staples, sancocho and ajiaco.
Nairo cycled miles to school – as money often didn`t run to the bus fare – on a rickety old bike he father said was useless. Today, he is a gentleman; a smiling unassuming sporting hero.
Nairo, we salute you.
Politician of the year – Humberto de la Calle
Dulcet-toned de la Calle is the Santos Government`s chief negotiator in the peace talks with the FARC in Havana.
An eternal statesman, de la Calle has held cabinet positions over much of the last 20 years and has with huge aplomb steered the polemic and public-opinion-dividing talks with the guerrillas towards to a hopefully succesful conclusion.
Despite constant sniping from the sidelines and despite negotiating with the wily guerrillas who have devoted the last 50 years to a war against the Colombian state, de la Calle has managed to maintain the appearance of order and control.
Leadership is a rare quality and de la Calle`s erudite and calming influence has been its best example in 2013.
Wind bag of the year – Gustavo Petro
Love him or loathe him, Petro`s rhetoric has been unrivalled (in its verbosity) this year.
The newly sacked Mayor of Bogota is reminiscent of a 1980s University Student Union “trot” determined to divide the world into the bourgeois (evil) and the proletarian masses (virtuous yet down-trodden).
Commentators have perhaps a little unfairly said Petro has a “speech for everything and a solution for nothing”, but the mayor`s time in office has certainly been characterized by hyperbole and very little rolling up of sleeves and getting on with the job.
When the right-wing Inspector General Alejandro Ordoñez (hate figure for those on the left) decided earlier this month to depose Petro for his mishandling of the nationalization of Bogota`s rubbish collection (yes, really), Petro was handed the opportunity of a lifetime to transform himself from terrible administrator to the “people`s matyr”.
Expect 2014 to be another year of plaintive pomposity from Petro as he fights Ordoñez’s decision and tries to build a coalition of “indignados” ahead of congressional and presidential elections.
Foot in mouth moment of the year – President Santos
“El tal paro no existe”
Whoops, Mr President.
President Santos might be a nice patrician sort of chap but he is not the most charismatic of politicians. When forced to ad-lib, Juan Manuel often trips over himself with a sort of self-consciousness not usually associated with those who have risen to the top.
As nation-wide protests at the economic ruin of rural Colombia began to take hold in August, Santos appeared on television to utter the infamous line, “this national strike doesn`t exist”.
Lampooned and harrangued in equal measure, Santos appeared out of touch, insensitive, and worse still, unable to manage a crisis. The country told him in no uncertain terms that “yes, there jolly well was a strike, and what`s more we`re going to stick it out until you get on and do something about it”; roads were blocks, pots and pans were bashed in protest against the president, and Bogota rioted. Santos was forced to “militarize” (in his words) the capital to stop the rot.
The president saw his popularity levels fall below 20% and hasn`t since recovered.
Opposition politician of the year – a tie!
President Santos controls over 90% of congress and has most of the national media eating out of the palm of his hand (or his pocket, if Uribe`s allegations are to be believed).
Opposition in Colombia`s highly presidentialized system has often been a lonely pursuit.
So particular mention is merited for those who have stuck at it and tried to hold the president to account this year.
Colombia Politics could not decide on a winner between Jorge Enrique Robledo on the left and Alvaro Uribe on the right and so we decided to split the gong in two.
Former President Alvaro Uribe has been a constant thorn in the side of his successor, attacking Santos for being all talk and no delivery, for duplicitousness and betrayal in entering into talks with the FARC, and for weakness in his dealings with firebrand neighbours in Caracas and Managua.
Robledo too has been an almost lone voice in congress opposing government policy. Robledo`s engaging and forensic style has been put to effect with devastating effect, hastening the fall of ministers and ambassadors.
His dearest wish would be to put an end the Santos regime. This may be a step too far, but in 2014 he heads the senate list for the left wingers, Polo Democrats and could well be elected with the highest number of votes.
There are many other figures we would like to raise a toast to here, like the offensive Senator Gerlein who called homosexual sex “excremental”, and the corrupt former Bogota Mayor, Samuel Moreno who is alleged to have stolen over 15 million dollars of public money in the just three years he was in power.
What does 2014 hold? We hope for new leadership, some new faces and for Colombians to continue their “civic rebellion”, demanding more of their political class.
Here`s to a 2014 in which Colombia votes for peace and hopefully a little bit of a change too.