#Santos

Colombia`s year of peace

At Christmas next year there will be extra cause for goodwill in Colombia. In 2014 the FARC guerrillas will sign an end to their self-proclaimed war against the state, silencing the guns that have taken over 220,000 lives in 50 years of bloodshed.

Two generations of Colombians, the majority of the nation, have only known conflict. Officially there are 6 million victims; but the truth is, the entire nation has been scarred by decades of brutal and degrading violence. Read more…

Colombia needs an alternative

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Colombia`s presidential election has an air of inevitability about it. Ok, so 66% of Colombians don`t want to re-elect President Santos. But they don`t much fancy the list of other options, either.

Oscar Ivan Zuluaga ex-president Alvaro Uribe`s man, struggles for votes above 15%, while Clara Lopez and other leftie candidates are within the margin of error.

The candidate with the best change of beating Santos is the “voto en blanco”, or the spoilt ballot. He/she currently sits just three points behind the president.

Abstention too has a chance of winning; nearly half of Colombians remain unsure who is the lesser of evils.

We`re six months away from the first round vote in the presidential election (if no candidate wins an absolute majority he or she must face a run off with the second placed runner up) and there is plenty of time for the nation to decide which way to jump.

However, there is a strange sense that it is not that Colombians are undecided, but antipathetic. Abstention might not reflect laziness but a nationwide collective turning up of the nose.

Anecdotally I have found not a soul who wants to see Santos in power come August (when the new president is sworn in). But equally, most struggle to identify an alternative, and confess they may end up voting for him to keep out a worse option (a leftie or a rightie depending on their politics).

Colombia`s democracy is a curious beast, and it would be foolish to pretend that corruption and outright vote buying will not play a significant role in the outcome of the elections. Nevertheless, it IS important what the electorate think and want – despite the best efforts of many to avoid this reality – and a move in voter sentiment if it is particularly strong could bring about real change.

So, while I still believe that Santos should just about scrape home to victory, there are two alternative scenarios:

1. The voto en blanco campaign captures the public mood, and Colombians decide to send a message to their overly oligarchical political class. In the event that the “white wave”, as it is now being called, tops the poll, elections will have to be recalled, with none of the previous candidates allowed to stand again. What fun that would be!

2. A surprise figure, a new, inspiring and intelligent figure emerges to offer change hope and a path to the sunlit uplands…well, we can hope, can´t we? Perhaps the white knight won`t arrive, but a reasonable, palatable politician must be out there somewhere.

In 2002 Alvaro Uribe appeared almost from nowhere. With just months to go he was hopelessly behind, registering very low in the polls, but his populist message of enough is enough led him to take the elections in the first round.

Equally, the Green candidate and former Bogota Mayor, Antanas Mockus in 2010 managed to bring about Colombia`s first social media revolution, building what looked like an unstoppibly popular movement. But Mockus faded just as quickly as he had surged and Santos won comfortably.

So, Colombia is desperately seeking a Mockus; but this time a Mockus with staying power. Education, health, justice – the platforms on which this candidate could run are as endless as the reforms to the system are urgent.

Arise…¡Dios me oiga!

Picture, Global Post

President Santos: `re-elect me for peace`

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Colombia`s President Juan Manuel Santos, tonight launched an audacious re-election bid, claiming peace is possible only with him in charge.

Santos will ask Colombians next May to vote for four more years to implement peace accords he hopes the in coming months to have signed with FARC guerrillas.

If the president has his way, ending Colombia`s 50 year conflict will be the central issue as the campaign officially begins on Monday. Santos`strategy is to offer the electorate a choice of the “friends of peace” and the enemies of the FARC talks underway in Havana. The commander-in-chief hopes that, however sceptical the public may be, it will ultimately not vote against a farewell to arms.

Santos is building a coalition of Liberal, Conservative, Cambio Radical, and other, parties in support of his re-election.

Yesterday, the President sat late into the night securing the support of potential rival, German Vargas Lleras, and also tied up backing from left-wing Bogota Mayor, Gustavo Petro and right-wing Conservatives.

With support from the major political powerhouses already secured, Santos is trying to stitch up the election before the campaign has begun. Currently there is no candidate that has a chance of beating him.

Oscar Ivan Zuluaga is his closest rival but, despite having the support of hardline former president, Alvaro Uribe, Zuluaga has failed to capture the attention of the public.

Polls show that less than a third of Colombians want Santos back in the presidential palace come next August (when the possession takes place). However, with the state`s largesse at his disposal, the coalition votes in the bag, and the majority of the national media “on message”, public opinion will struggle to be heard. Santos` re-election has an air of inevitability.

Within minutes of Santos` address, supporters were dispatched to the TV and radio studios to herald the achievements of the administration. Those that just days ago were wondering whether to ditch a president ailing in the polls are today firmly tied to the re-election ship.

If these supporters are to be believed the votes have already been counted. Will Colombians fall in line and obey the wishes of the political class?

Picture, El Tiempo.

No pause in FARC peace talks for elections

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Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos yesterday dismissed opposition calls to pause peace talks with FARC guerrillas promising to “press down the accelerator” to build on the “real progress” to end the nation`s 50 year conflict.

Former President Alvaro Uribe demands an end to discussions he sees as a farce, while others have argued for a pause during the election campaign that begins later this month.

But Santos is now increasingly confidence of a successful outcome to the negotiations he began last October.

Following yesterday`s agreement on a framework for the guerrilla group`s incorporation into the democratic system, Santos has gone on the offensive:

“There has been talk of breaking or pausing the talks, we are not going to do this…As we move forward and you see results, it is not time to stop, but just the opposite; to accelerate and continue with more courage and more excitement to end this conflict indefinitely.”

Santos will hope further agreements propel his re-election campaign.

Although the full details of yesterday`s agreement are unlikely to be made public until all points in the general accord for the termination of the armed conflict are agreed upon, Colombia Politics can confirm they include rights and guarantees for the exercise of the political opposition, democratic mechanisms of citizen participation, and effective measures to promote greater participation in national, regional and local policy.

Humberto De La Calle, the government’s chief negotiator, hailed the agreement a “new opening for democracy”.

“The agreement today represents a new opening for democracy, an open road for peace to take root after the end of the conflict, to free our government from violence and intimidation.”

“The agreement will create an important mechanism for turning armed groups into political parties and movements.”

FARC negotiator Ivan Marquez, labelled the agreement “perhaps one of the most important achievements so far [in the peace talks].”

As expected, Alvaro Uribe, slammed the announcement, tweeting “Colombia is the only democracy that accepts negotiating its democracy with terrorism.”

While most commentators have welcomed the agreement, concern has been expressed about the lack of clarity on what has been agreed upon. According to this publication`s editor, the fundamental issues such as whether Timochenko and co will seek election, and or directly given seats in congress have been parked.

For Ginny Bouvier, Senior Program officer for Latin America at the United States Institute of Peace, any accord on political participation should look to provide more access to politics for marginalised sectors of society.

“Given that political, economic and social exclusion form parts of the root of the conflict, it will be important to undertake political reforms that allow the expression of these as well as other dissident voices.”

Bouvier also spoke of the challenge of integrating the rebels into political life:

“The stigmatisation of the guerrillas and the highly polarised electoral environment in Colombia add to the challenge of integrating FARC rebels into the political arena.”

Without details of the agreement it is impossible to know how these issues have been tackled.

The next item to be discussed at the peace table is the illicit drug trade; problematic in its own right.

According to organised crime website Insight Crime, the FARC control approximately 70% of the country’s coca crops, while many FARC fronts “earn millions of dollars from the drug trade”.

We have argued before that it is unclear whether Ivan Marquez and co represent the guerrillas` rank and file members. If not, it is highly likely FARC splinter groups will emerge to continue this lucrative business.

“It is perhaps inevitable that a new generation of criminal groups, the FARCRIM, may be born should a peace deal be signed,” argue Insight Crime.

Only time will tell how the delegations tackle this issue.

Photo, Fernando Vergara / AP

FARC to trade bullet for ballot box

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Colombia`s Santos administration and FARC guerrillas have unveiled an “historic agreement” on “political participation”.

Today`s announcement hopes to breathe life back into a year long peace process that faces growing scepticism.

The FARC have promised finally after 50 years of conflict to trade the bullet for the ballot box.

We`re now a third of way through the talks, with two of the six points on the agenda being signed off.

Excellent, you might think.

Disappointingly, however, despite the hype, today`s announcement avoids the very issues that cause most controversy, appearing to kick them into the long grass.

The parties do accept it is a “partial agreement”, and consequently declined to provide us today with real detail on what has been signed up to.

For many, the central consideration under “political participation” is whether the FARC top brass will be allowed to stand for election.

Will the FARC be given seats in congress?

And, if so will they be given to Timochenko, Ivan Marquez and the rest?

Without answers to these questions any accord seems largely cosmetic.

Yes, it`s undoubtedly important that agreement has been reached, but it is difficult to avoid the sensation of unfinished business. A year on we yearn for more progress for the really tough decisions to be made.

Photo, El Espectador

Colombia`s infrastructure; one of Latin America`s worst

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Colombia’s infrastructure is one of the worst in Latin America, according to the World Economic Forum.

Of the top twelve economies in the region, Colombia has the tenth poorest provision of vital infrastructure; this, despite the promise by President Juan Manuel Santos to make the issue a priority of his administration.

In Santos`first year in office he created the National Infrastructure Agency (ANI) to push through the works identified as catalysts for economic growth.

Last week the president defended his track-record:

“In three years we have invested 22 billion peso ($11.7 million) in infrastructure development. That shows the magnitude of the efforts that we have made,” insisted Santos.

Despite slow progress, the ANI last Wednesday received nine bids as part of the “Fourth Generation” (4G) investment programme.

4G promises much. It is Colombia’s largest ever public investment project, designed to “improve connectivity between the principle centres of production and exportation to make Colombia a more competitive country and overcome the historical drag in transport infrastructure”.

According to the ANI, the project will provide an estimated investment of 44 billion peso ($23.2 million) under a public – private partnership scheme:

“With this initiative, the length of roads throughout the country is expected to nearly double, from 6,000 km to 11,000 km in the next six years.”

Undoubtedly good news if these promises are delivered. Few disagree that the current lack of infrastructure in Colombia is a major threat to the country’s economic competitiveness, domestically as well as internationally.

Colombia needs better roads, railroads, ports and airports. Cities are poorly connected to both internal and external markets, largely because of the extreme topography of the country.

Cutting transport costs is crucial to the country’s manufacturers, especially the coffee farmers, who continue to struggle from significant production costs. Crucially, it is key to overcoming the isolation at the root of the country’s socio-economic inequalities.

According to financial analyst James McKeigue, the 4G investment project should boost the country’s GDP by 1% per year, with a further 0.5% coming from a multiplier effect. The planned works will create approximately 200,000 direct jobs across Colombia, with a further 250,000 indirect ones. Importantly, many of these will be created in the remote areas where jobs are most needed.

But infrastructure improvements will bring security improvements as well as economic benefits.

The Colombian government has never been able successfully to control all of her territory. The majority of the population lives in the country’s largest three cities, Bogota, Medellin and Cali.

Outside of these major areas, a combination of jungles and mountain plains remain largely uninhabited, with limited infrastructure, resulting in a weak state presence in and around surrounding regions.

The resulting economic inequality throughout rural Colombia is severe, in part explaining the conditions which helped spawn criminal organisations known as BACRIM, and guerrilla groups, such as the FARC and ELN.

These groups fight for control of lucrative resources such as oil, gold, marijuana and coca.

Without significant infrastructure development throughout the regions where the conflict rages, the government cannot begin to solve the underlying problems of inequality and lack of development.

Indeed, any peace accord with FARC guerrillas would be vulnerable as illegal armed groups will seek to fill the vacuum left by the rebels in areas lacking state presence.

Photo, Colombia Noticias

End of impunity for Colombian military murders?

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Colombia’s Constitutional Court last week ruled that the Military Justice law – a controversial bill that expanded the jurisdiction of military tribunals over crimes committed by the armed forces – is unconstitutional, citing “procedural defects” with the bill`s passage through Congress.

Human rights activists` criticism – who argued the reform would grant impunity for military accused of killing  innocent civilians – was not enough to prevent Congress in June approving the legislation.

The Santos Government and Congress argued for the military’s need for “confidence and judicial security.”

But in a ruling not subject to appeal, the Constitutional Court nullified the legislation, ensuring all subsequent cases are tried through the civilian courts. Defence Minister Juan Carlos Pinzon labelled the ruling “a blow to the morale of the military forces that without doubt will affect Colombians’ security.”

The main concern for human rights organisations in relation to this legislation, was the prosecution of members of the armed forces guilty of killing innocent civilians, in what is known as the false positives scandal.

According to the Prosecutor General’s office, 3,896 civilians have been assassinated and subsequently presented as combat kills by members of the armed forces since 1986, with an alarming 3,470 deaths recorded in between 2002 and 2008 alone – a period military personal were known to receive rewards for high rebel body counts.

The scandal came to light in September 2008 after prosecution investigators linked the bodies of unidentified rebel fighters found in the north of the country to people who had been reported missing in Soacha, a city south of the capital Bogota.

As of 2013, 4,625 members of the armed forces were under investigation or on trial in the civilian justice system for numerous human rights crimes, including false positives.

According to Adam Isacson, senior associate for regional security at the Washington office on Latin America, Colombia owes such progress to the civilian justice system, which since 1997 has been given increasing jurisdiction over military human rights abuses.

“Virtually all convictions of military personal for human rights crimes were handed down by civilian judges,” said Isacson. “Colombia’s military justice system, which frequently challenges civilian courts jurisdiction over abuse cases, has a far poorer record of holding soldiers and officers accountable.”

By 2010 however, the armed forces were demanding that human rights cases involving the military be tried solely by military tribunals, claiming that civilian prosecutors and judges did not understand the context of combat and were thus undermining their efforts against the rebels.

To the dismay of numerous human rights organisations, President Santos agreed, and in 2011 introduced legislation that would ensure all military human rights abuse cases be tried under military jurisdiction, despite their far poorer record of holding soldiers and officers to account.

While this law was amended to ensure the most serious crimes return to the civilian courts, “the UN high commissioner for human rights, Human Rights Watch and the Colombian Commission for Jurists were worried that past and future cases of serious human rights abuses could end up transferred to, or starting in, the military justice system where punishment is unlikely,” according to Isacson.

Such fears were realised recently, as news broke that a high magistrate received 400 million Colombian pesos to transfer a military official involved in a false positives case from a civilian court to a military tribunal.

For Isacson, the significant backlash regarding the Constitutional court’s decision is likely to arise post conflict, assuming a peace agreement is established.

“Officers are expressing concern about the possibility of a wave of post conflict trials for human rights abuses, which even in the context of transitional justice, would amount to a severe strain on the reputation of a military that will be expecting gratitude for having weakened the guerrillas.”

More important than the reputation of the military however, is the reparation to the victims of such crimes. Rather than fight this decision or conjure up a new Military Justice bill – something the government has suggested – efforts should be made to reduce the military’s impunity rate and support the civilian justice system in its effort to bring those responsible for such heinous crimes to justice.