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President Donald Trump has made the upcoming midterm elections explicitly about himself, telling supporters at the GOP convention that they should vote as if he were on the ballot. Political strategist David Winston argues that strategy raises a central question for Republicans: can tying congressional contests to Trump’s popularity overcome widespread voter dissatisfaction with the economy and his low job-approval ratings?
Trump’s pitch and what it means for down-ballot races
At the convention, Trump urged his base to act as if he were on the ballot, telling supporters, “I’m asking you to pretend that I’m on the ballot … just one more time.” That call frames the midterms as a turnout battle: higher participation by Trump-aligned voters could help GOP candidates in competitive House and Senate races.
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But past elections suggest that presidential coattails do not automatically translate into broader Republican gains. Winston notes that in 2024 Trump carried seven presidential battleground states, yet Republicans won only one of the five Senate contests that coincided with those states (Pennsylvania’s 0.2-point win by Republican Dave McCormick). McCormick, Winston writes, was also the only one of the five to win a plurality of independent voters.
Historical patterns and approval numbers
Winston points to a longer pattern linking presidential job approval to midterm outcomes. Over the past three decades the House majority flipped in five midterms — 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018 and 2022 — and in each case the incumbent president’s approval rating was below water. Exit polls in those years showed presidential approval in the mid‑40s and disapproval in the low‑ to mid‑50s.
What worries Republicans today, Winston says, is that Trump’s approval ratings are weaker than those historical benchmarks. According to the RealClearPolitics average, Trump’s approval has been underwater since mid‑March 2025; as of Tuesday the RCP average showed 40 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval. On economic measures — a central concern for many voters — his numbers are lower still: RCP averages cited by Winston put job‑approval on the economy at about 35‑61 and approval on inflation at roughly 29‑68.
Why the economy is the deciding factor
Winston argues that overcoming those deficits requires convincing voters they are better off or will be soon — a difficult task given Republicans’ current standing on economic perceptions. He notes that while many voters are unhappy with Democrats’ proposals for affordability and skeptical of their effectiveness, they also do not appear persuaded by short‑term incentives: “Covid checks didn’t win Trump reelection,” he writes, criticizing simplistic promises such as a surprise $5,000 payment.
Republicans did increase their raw vote total in 2024 — House Republican votes rose by about 20 million from 2022 to 2024 — yet that higher turnout did not translate into net House gains. Winston emphasizes that higher participation in a midterm could still matter, especially in close Senate contests, but it is no guarantee.
What Republicans need to do
Winston’s prescription is straightforward: offer a clear, credible closing argument grounded in specific policy gains and economic realism rather than relying solely on Trump’s draw. He points to features of the recent tax and spending legislation that voters support once they understand them — for example, permanence for the doubled standard deduction and retention of the child tax credit — but says those messages must be communicated plainly and empathetically.
Summing up the strategic choice for the GOP, Winston returns to the convention rhetoric but with a cautionary tone: “Our country’s on the ballot.” He adds that to win, Republicans must pair turnout appeals with substantive, believable plans that address voters’ everyday economic concerns.
David Winston is president of The Winston Group, a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans and an election analyst for CBS News. The views reported here reflect his analysis as presented in his recent commentary.
