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Rising gasoline costs and deepening economic anxieties are widening the 2026 electoral battleground and putting Republican control of Congress at greater risk, according to veteran GOP adviser David Winston. In a column analyzing recent energy data and voter surveys, Winston argues that climbing prices and negative public sentiment about the economy have expanded the number of competitive Senate and House races heading into the Nov. 3 election.
Fuel prices and voter frustration
Winston cites Energy Information Administration data showing the national average price of gasoline at $4.50 per gallon for the week ending Oct. 5. By his account, when President Trump took office the average price was $3.23; it fell to $2.91 by Jan. 12, 2026, before rising roughly 55 percent since then. Winston says those increases, together with continuing cost pressures on food and electricity, have pushed economic issues to the top of voters’ concerns.
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Polling: inflation, confidence and partisan trust
Winston draws on the Winning the Issues survey (Sept. 12–16) to illustrate public sentiment: 67 percent of respondents said inflation is getting worse, and 73 percent said the cost of living is rising faster than their wages. The same survey found only 28 percent thought the economy was headed in the right direction, while 64 percent said it was on the wrong track.
Those attitudes appear to have weighed on approval ratings. Winston reports that the president’s overall job approval and his handling of specific economic issues — the economy, inflation and tariffs — register disapproval rates of 60 percent or higher, and exceed 70 percent among independents. He also notes the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average gives the president a favorable-unfavorable spread of -18 (39-57), a figure the column corrected to reflect the current spread.
Shifts in perceived competence on economic issues
On which party is trusted to handle economic matters, Winston says the GOP has fallen behind across multiple issues. In his column he notes Republicans were at 39 percent on the economy — a level he says was last seen in July 2009 after the 2008–09 financial crisis. He contrasts that with a January Winning the Issues (WTI) survey in which 45 percent of voters then said they had more confidence in Republicans to handle the economy versus 42 percent for Democrats.
Electoral map: more competitive Senate and House races
Winston reports there are now 11 competitive Senate races — with South Carolina possibly becoming a 12th — and that he classifies six of those as toss-ups. He compares his count with other trackers, saying the Cook Political Report lists seven toss-ups while Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball lists four. Four of the Republican seats Winston identifies as in play — Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas — were carried by President Trump in 2024 by margins between roughly 11 and 14 percentage points, a development he says could have knock-on effects for House contests.
House competitiveness is harder to pin down because of redistricting. Using 2026 congressional lines and the 2024 presidential results, Winston says Trump carried 234 districts (32 by less than 10 points) while Vice President Harris carried 201. He cautions, however, that the 2026 environment differs from 2024: Trump’s favorability has worsened since the 2024 exit poll, he notes. Winston also points out there are 19 districts that Trump won in 2024 that Biden had won in 2020 when results are mapped to 2026 lines.
Negative views of both parties
Winston highlights that both parties suffer poor ratings. His recounting of the WTI survey finds congressional Republicans at a 39–58 favorable-unfavorable and Democrats at 40–56. Among independents the numbers are worse: Republicans 27–69 and Democrats 32–64. He adds that 25 percent of the electorate holds a negative view of both parties, a figure that rises to 44 percent among independents.
What this means for the campaign
Winston argues that the president’s decision to put himself “on the ballot” gives voters a way to express economic discontent by voting against Republican congressional candidates. At the same time, he warns Democrats face risks from a stronger progressive flank and the public’s limited appetite for policies branded as socialist. Those dynamics, he says, create openings for Republicans — but only if they can make a credible case that their policies will improve the economy rather than relying on hyperbolic attacks on Democrats.
This column has been corrected to reflect Trump’s favorable-unfavorable spread.
David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, and serves as an election analyst for CBS News.
