#Polo Democrats

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Senator Robledo’s bid to change Colombia’s politics

Robledo, photo El Espectador

 

The 2014 Colombian presidential race is already underway. For once the talk is not about Juan Manuel Santos’ re-election. Nor is the focus on the machinations of the former president, Alvaro Uribe. This week we learnt that Senator Jorge Enrique Robledo, the intellectual left-winger intends to allow his name to go forward as a candidate.

Eloquent and polemical, Robledo has star appeal. He is, now that Gustavo Petro is in power, the most vocal and recognisable opposition politician in Colombia. In the 2010 senate race Robledo secured the third highest vote. He is undoubtedly a cult figure.

The left’s candidate of choice?

It is not in any way certain that Robledo will emerge as the chosen candidate for his Polo Democratic party. Clara Lopez, the Polo Democrats’ president is the favourite to secure the nomination. But the party is unlikely to decide this before next year, leaving plenty of scope for Robledo’s star to continue to ascend.

An eventual Robledo candidature would offer Colombians radical change. Robledo is opposed to just about every policy of the Santos administration. In fact Robledo runs counter virtually to the entire political culture of the country.

Robledo has made his career attacking the effects of the pro-market neo-liberalist policies that have reigned in Colombia since the 1990 presidency of Cesar Gaviria. Robledo is a red-blooded socialist who tends to protectionism, and the anti-big business rhetoric popular in large swathes of Latin America.

He is against the free-trade agreement with the USA, against private involvement in university education, and against the (as he sees it) colonialism of the Washington Consensus. Were he to win the presidential elections, he would quickly set about reversing much of the work of the last 20 years of centrist and right-wing Colombian governments.

In a telling interview with the quality publication El Colombiano earlier this month, Senator Robledo told Colombians that their country is on the sick-bed, and that the treatment the Santos presidency is administering is making the patient worse.

In this article, Robledo sets out the case for an alternative government for Colombia. A government based on socialist ideals. The senator’s thoughts for this brave new world were published a little over a week before it came to light that he was exploring the possibility of his candidature, as it is put. He will consult friends within the Polo Democratic Party before deciding his course of action.

Should he get a chance to present his prospectus, the article in El Colombiano sets outs clearly how this policy platform might look.

He argues that during the eighteen months of the Santos regime Colombia has gone from bad to worse. His principle argument is that government policies have benefited the monopolies, big businesses, and foreign investors at the expense of the poor, the middle classes, and the country’s small and medium-sized businesses. According to Robledo, Santos has widened Colombia’s inequality gap, reinforcing its status as the third most unequal nation on earth.

The intimation is that a Robledo presidency would halt the free trade agreements with the USA, with Europe and with South Korea. Robledo’s contention is that Colombia would not benefit from the agreements: The inherent structural imbalance would lend foreign companies a major advantage over less well developed Colombian businesses.Robledo predicts a new era of colonialism, as bad, he suggests, as the era of Spanish rule. This fatalism is typical of the protectionist left.

In the article, Robledo also attacks Santos’ land restitution policy, and his judicial reform laws arguing in his characteristically colourful language, that the President is steering the country into the ‘abyss’.

As with many politicians of his colour, Robledo is hotter on what he is against than on what he is for. A clear and compelling plan for a workable alternative for the country is not – for this website, at least – immediately available for consideration.

But Robledo will not worry about that. For now his brand is one of opposition. Last year when university students went on strike in protest against President’s Santos proposed changes to the education system, Robledo became the flag bearer of their cause. With soaring anti-privitisation rhetoric, Robledo launched wave after wave of attack, eventually helping students to force the government to shelve the plans.  Robledo has long enjoyed cult status within certain parts of Colombian society.

In a Congress where over 90% of the politicians are members of the coalition government, Robledo stands out like a sore thumb of contrariness.

There is no point in pretending that Robledo is anything other than a long-shot for president in 2014. He is a politician that is best suited to opposition. There is no denying his eloquence or even his likability. But he is precisely the sort of leader the Colombian left needs to steer well clear of.

Petro’s election in Bogotá showed the way for his former Polo Democratic colleagues – move to the centre, or die. For the Colombian left to have a real chance in 2014 it must select the moderate (and experienced) Clara Lopez.

Robledo is a stalking horse, but one that provides a bit of colour to a Colombian political system where the odds are stacked hugely in favour of the ruling administration, and where opposition is often drowned out in a din of unanimity.

Category: Comment, Left wingers
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The dawn of a new, democratic, Colombian left?

Petro´s campaign literature

Sunday saw the dawn of a new left-wing in Colombia. Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla in the ultra-left M-19 was elected Mayor of Bogotá, in the process becoming the second most powerful politician in the land. The progressives – a political party he formed only four months ago – also became a major political force gaining councillor seats across the capital city. Petro wasted no time in announcing that this party would take their fight to the nation, promising to field candidates across the country when the country elects its congressmen and the president of the republic in 2014.

The left in Colombia has tended to the extreme rather than to the centre – more guerrilla and Chavez supporting  than ´third way´ pragmatists. Petro himself once played this role. But to get elected in Bogota he underwent a transformation, tidying up his image, softening his rhetoric and appealing to the middle-classes who once would have been appalled by his guerrilla past.

The election of Petro sends a message to those on the left that if they want to play a useful role in the political life of Colombia they must move to the centre. Will they heed it and will a new, democratic left become a major force in Colombian politics?

After years in the wilderness in a country where the right-wing has dominated, the Colombian left finally appear to be finding their voice. Last month this website reported on the leftwards recalibration of the Santos government, and of the polls that pointed to a left-wing victory in Bogotá.

Since that article Gustavo Petro has indeed won the election, and is now mayor-elect of the Colombian capital. At the same time Santos´ government has taken a further step – albeit an incremental one – to the left, by naming the leader of the Liberal Party, Rafael Pardo, the new employment minister.

Pardo´s appointment will be explored in greater detail in future articles on this website, but it´s worth noting here that Santos is focusing on those issues which the right is accused of having neglected. Santos is presenting his government as the job-creation government. This week employment figures showed that those out of work had dropped below 10% – an historic achievement, according to the Santos regime. Under the previous government, unemployment rose.

Santos has also pointed in recent months to the fact that within Latin America, Colombia is the country where most new jobs have been created in the last year. So, who better to take charge of what is set to become a pillar of the Santos administration, than the leader of the centre, centre-left party within his coalition? Pardo is set to become a key figure, and he will not shy from his left-leaning (but centre-left leaning) ways.

Back to Bogotá and to Petro´s historic victory. Until a few months ago Gustavo Petro was still seen largely as a  left-wing rebel – a serious politician, yes, but one that could appeal to those on the centre, most definitely not. Both his guerrilla past, and his scruffy left-wing philosopher appearance turned voters off, in equal measure.

But Petro decided to change. He appeared on television in suits and ties, he toned down his rhetoric and focused not on attacking his opponents but on presenting a positive image of the future of Bogotá. He moved towards the centre – or at least appeared to do so. Petro´s campaign borrowed from Tony Blair´s Labour Party in the UK and from Bill Clinton´s Democrat Party in the US. He tore into the current administration, and the corruption at the heart of the Bogotá government. He began to embody change. Petro´s old rhetoric had been negative, attack-dog like but over the last few months he began to paint voters a picture of the sunlight uplands of life under his leadership.

He promised a ´politics of love´ not a classic left-wing class war. He cast himself as Bogotá´s saviour, he became a quasi-religious figure. His own story is too one of salvation – a reformed guerrilla bringing peace to the streets of Bogota, healing the wounds of a nation scarred by bloody civil war. Hís victory speech read like St Francis of Asissi, bringing peace and harmony to a discordant city, and country. In this speech he called himself ´the son of the 1989 peace process´, and told the world that his election showed that Bogotanos ´had not fallen into the trap of the politics of hate and of the eternal war, but instead had said yes to reconciliation and yes to peace´.

President Santos was quick to congratulate Petro, and offer him a way of working with his government. Santos pointed to Petro as an example to guerrillas, demobilise and join us, he said. But he also showed how Petro´s politics can help deliver the President´s agenda. The two will work together to deliver the land reform which will give back to the displaced poor territory stolen from them during the years of conflict. Petro has moved to the centre, but he has also moved the centre to the left.

So what of the rest of the left in Colombia? Polo Democrat tanks have historically occupied the left-wing lawn. The party is, however, in disarray in the aftermath of the Samuel Moreno scandal and following a poor showing in the elections last Sunday.  Petro has signalled intent – his Progressives movement is now in his words ´the biggest political force in Bogota´. There can be little doubt that Petro will seek to exploit his victory, claiming the Polo Democrat territory as his own. In Petro´s victory speech he spoke of the future ín which his party ´would transform into a national movement to construct a more democratic Colombia, a movement to build the 21 century (in the country)´. There is already talk of one time presidential candidate Antanas Mockus joining the group, and this website would not rule out many Green voters flocking to express their support.

Colombia is a country in which the opposition has historically been weak. The government and the president enjoy a concentrated power. Petro looks to be creating the base from which a healthy opposition can grow. The left must now seize this opportunity, modernise and move to the centre. Petro´s victory changed Colombian politics – he was the first ex-guerrilla to take control of Bogotá. But perhaps the biggest change will be seen in the formation of a new, democratic left.

Latin American countries too often fall into the trap of electing populist, socialist extremists like Chavez in Venezuela and Correa in Ecuador. Frustration at a lack of alternative to the right-wing is often to blame. Petro and his new movement should help to offer Colombians at least a way of voting left without enduring the whims of the revolutionaries.

Category: Comment, Left wingers
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Are Colombian politics turning left-wing?

Colombian politics have been dominated by the right-wing for more than a decade. But things appear to be changing – President Santos has re-calibrated the government, leftwards, and the polls point to big victories for left-wing candidates across the country in Sunday’s elections. Is Colombia, a traditional, conservative, and right-wing country starting to turn left-wing?

The electoral landscape

The Liberal Party expects to make significant gains when Colombians vote this weekend to elect their governors, mayors and local councillors. Important cities and departments across the country are predicted to fall into Liberal hands. At the same time, the Conservatives are talking down their chances – as they look set to lose big prize seats, like Antioquia and Boyaca.

But it is in the capital, Bogota where the biggest victory for the left is possible: Gustavo Petro a former left-wing guerrilla and old-fashioned socialist leads in the polls. Now it’s true that Bogota has a history of being more left-wing than the rest of the country.

But electing Petro the most left-wing of candidates on offer – in a field where the right is in the minority – would deliver a major blow to the establishment. The mayor of Bogota is the second most powerful political position in the country. A Petro mayoralty could turn into a major headache for the right.

Colombia – a right-wing country

Colombia is profoundly unlike her neighbours, Venezuela and Ecuador, both of whom have fallen into the hands of the socialist elective dictatorships of Hugo Chavez and Rafael Correa, respectively. Colombia on the other hand is conservative with a small but often also with a big C. A hegemony of free-market economical liberalism mixed with social conservativism has ruled since the 90s.

To understand just how much Colombia tends to the right, look no further than the fact that such free-market politics were brought in by a president (by party denomination at least) not of the right of the left; Cesar Gaviria.

Gaviria was followed into the Casa de Narino presidential palace by Ernesto Samper another Liberal president. Then came Andres Pastrana in 1998, a Conservative. But perhaps the real lurch to right came with Alvaro Uribe who ruled from 2002 to 2010. Uribe (despite being a former Liberal Party member) is an old-fashioned security first, authoritarian conservative.

During his rule, Colombia became the US’ closest ally in Latin America. Uribe’s policies loosened the stranglehold the FARC had on parts of the country, and Colombia started to benefit from Gaviria’s free-market policies as billions of dollars of foreign investment poured into the new, securer Colombia.

President Santos took office in August 2010 ostensibly as a right-winger – or at least that’s how it appeared to those who voted for him. Santos was Uribe’s candidate, elected on the U party platform (the party that formed to support Uribe’s second term in office). Before coming to power, Santos served as Uribe’s defence minister.

In this role he was a hard-liner, the very model of a strong conservative, famed for his excursions into Ecuadorean territory and his successful war against the FARC. Some in Colombia feared than once in power Santos would be even more right-wing than Uribe.

And yet, since forming his government, Santos has been ‘accused’ of being too left not right wing. In recent months there have been a string of complaints from Santos’ Conservative coalition partners, and from within the U party itself that the government has focused too much on delivering the policies on the Liberal wishlist, rather than pushing through the initiatives championed by the right.

The Santos coalition now represents over 90 per cent of Congress. It is a coalition of right, centre and left so pleasing all of the folk all of the time is a difficult task for Santos. But while Conservatives have voiced their disquiet, there has been precious little complaint from the Liberals since Santos took over; in fact quite the opposite.

The Liberal movement has been emboldened since Uribe left office. As reported last month on this site, there is talk of reuniting the Liberal movement, which split when members left either to join the U party in support of Uribe, or the Cambio Radical party which was formed by now Interior Minister Vargas Lleras in opposition to Uribe. The name in the frame to lead this newly reunited force? President Santos, of course.

Liberals are confident that popular support for Santos, and his association with the Liberals, will turn into electoral success. According to the Colombian publication Semana, Colombian House of Representatives President and Liberal, Simon Gaviria (yes his father is former president Cesar Gaviria) has claimed that the Liberal Party will become the biggest political force in the country following the elections.

Conservative Senator Hernan Andrade admitted to Semana that the Liberal Party could be seen a possible winner of the elections, but claimed that this was down to good party organisation, rather than the tacit support offered by President Santos to the candidates.

But tellingly Andrade did admit that the party felt more at home in the government of Uribe. The U party have not been as obvious as the Conservatives about any discomfort they may or may not feel – but this is not surprising given Santos is still ruling under the U banner (and because the U is composed of a significant number of former Liberals).

Under the eight years of Uribe rule, the Conservatives were the key power broker (alongside the U party). It is unsurprising that they lament this (perceived) loss of influence on the direction the Government takes. However, there is little evidence that Colombians themselves regret this shift leftwards – support for Santos remains high (around 80% according to some polls), and if the predictions turn out to be true, the Liberals will be returned to power in greater numbers.

Colombia remains a right-wing country. There is little danger of a left-wing take over – even if Petro sweeps to power. However, there is a subtle shift in direction – away from the right-wing policies of the last decade. Santos is himself not left-wing. He is an extreme centrist, and ultra pragmatist – Colombians appear to be enjoying that.

Category: Comment, Left wingers
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Re-electing Santos in 2014 – political battle underway?

 

Santos accepts election victory

Colombian socialists this week launched a campaign to prevent the re-election of President Santos. Under the Polo Democratic party’s proposal, Colombian presidents would be constitutionally restricted to one (sequential) term in office.

But President Santos’ popularity is high, his approval rating is polling around 80%, and his coalition government controls over 90% of Colombia’s Congress. If there were elections today, he would romp home. Polo are picking a fight they know they can’t win. This website reveals why.

Within a day of the Polo Democrats placing the initiative on the table, the Santos government had swept it away, into the legislative dustbin. Polo knew they would not win the battle, but they were able to make their point, and to play politics.

Polo’s game is tactical. As Santos shot down the proposals, Polo senator Alexander Lopez took to the airwaves to cry foul; that Santos was acting not in the interests of the nation but out of personal gain, leaving open the option of his own re-election but without committing either way. Lopez insisted the president end the speculation and ‘say at once if he wishes to stand for re-election’.

Polo’s demand that Santos sets the record straight only 13 months into the four year mandate is at best hopeful. But it is calculated – on two levels.

First – Polo want to know who they will be fighting against in 2014. Any intelligence on who will run – or who won’t – will help Polo prepare, and to choose their political battles, targeting where and on whom their blows land. Rightly, Polo will leverage anything that forces the President’s hand.

The second calculation is a political chess move. Santos’ government is a coalition of the left, the right and of the centre, of Conservatives, Liberals, Greens, the U, and Cambio Radical members. He must keep them all together. Every move Santos makes is scrutinised to see whether it offers a nudge to the right or a wink to the left.

Santos’ balancing act is a delicate one. He wants to avoid any speculation about his political future – such speculation is a threat to the structural integrity of the coalition, the ties that bind the group. What Polo’s proposal does is push this speculation to the fore.

Santos was elected in 2010 as the candidate of the Party of the U. Yet voices were even before Polo’s move this week already beginning to whisper that Santos could, should he stand for re-election, opt to run for different party. Polo want to turn up the volume on these whispers, and hope to turn any tensions within the coalition into potential future splits.

Will this political strategy deliver results?

The idea of Santos running on a different platform is beginning to bubble up to the surface. It’s worth remembering that it’s only a matter of a few years since Santos left the Liberal Party to join the U (in support of Alvaro Uribe).  During the Uribe years, the Liberal movement split. Members left to form the Cambio Radical party and – as in the case of Santos – to join the U party.

So recent moves to reunite the entire Liberal movement – as reported last month on this website – must be seen as a threat to the U and the Conservatives’ influence. Should the body re-unite it would present a formidable force.

Conservatives and U members’ suspicions won’t have been calmed by Liberal Party Leader, Rafael Pardo’s recent call for an early debate on the 2014 presidential elections. According to Pardo, the Liberals would support a Santos candidature. But, and here’s a rather big but, that this support requires a re-negotiated or entirely new agreement to that which is currently in place. The implication is that the Liberals would play a larger role than they already do.

Conservative and U party members of the coalition are anxious to maintain Santos as much in their camp as possible. Speculation that Santos will re-join the Liberals is speculation. But speculation, and intrigue plays into Polo’s hands. They will want to keep the debate running as long as possible. Santos remains a most sought after commodity. Should he choose to run in 2014 as a member of the U, or as a Liberal candidate he will be difficult – and if his popularity continues, impossible – to beat.

Notes –

The original script of Colombia’s 1991 constitution states that presidents are not permitted sequential terms in office. Santos’ predecessor, Alvaro Uribe – with the support of the political elite – amended the constitution to permit his re-election in 2006. Uribe was a two-term president from 2002 to 2010. The Polo initiative argues for a return to the original script of the Constitution – so that Uribe remains the exception rather than becoming the rule.