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Colombian politics have been dominated by the right-wing for more than a decade. But things appear to be changing – President Santos has re-calibrated the government, leftwards, and the polls point to big victories for left-wing candidates across the country in Sunday’s elections. Is Colombia, a traditional, conservative, and right-wing country starting to turn left-wing?

The electoral landscape

The Liberal Party expects to make significant gains when Colombians vote this weekend to elect their governors, mayors and local councillors. Important cities and departments across the country are predicted to fall into Liberal hands. At the same time, the Conservatives are talking down their chances – as they look set to lose big prize seats, like Antioquia and Boyaca.

But it is in the capital, Bogota where the biggest victory for the left is possible: Gustavo Petro a former left-wing guerrilla and old-fashioned socialist leads in the polls. Now it’s true that Bogota has a history of being more left-wing than the rest of the country.

But electing Petro the most left-wing of candidates on offer – in a field where the right is in the minority – would deliver a major blow to the establishment. The mayor of Bogota is the second most powerful political position in the country. A Petro mayoralty could turn into a major headache for the right.

Colombia – a right-wing country

Colombia is profoundly unlike her neighbours, Venezuela and Ecuador, both of whom have fallen into the hands of the socialist elective dictatorships of Hugo Chavez and Rafael Correa, respectively. Colombia on the other hand is conservative with a small but often also with a big C. A hegemony of free-market economical liberalism mixed with social conservativism has ruled since the 90s.

To understand just how much Colombia tends to the right, look no further than the fact that such free-market politics were brought in by a president (by party denomination at least) not of the right of the left; Cesar Gaviria.

Gaviria was followed into the Casa de Narino presidential palace by Ernesto Samper another Liberal president. Then came Andres Pastrana in 1998, a Conservative. But perhaps the real lurch to right came with Alvaro Uribe who ruled from 2002 to 2010. Uribe (despite being a former Liberal Party member) is an old-fashioned security first, authoritarian conservative.

During his rule, Colombia became the US’ closest ally in Latin America. Uribe’s policies loosened the stranglehold the FARC had on parts of the country, and Colombia started to benefit from Gaviria’s free-market policies as billions of dollars of foreign investment poured into the new, securer Colombia.

President Santos took office in August 2010 ostensibly as a right-winger – or at least that’s how it appeared to those who voted for him. Santos was Uribe’s candidate, elected on the U party platform (the party that formed to support Uribe’s second term in office). Before coming to power, Santos served as Uribe’s defence minister.

In this role he was a hard-liner, the very model of a strong conservative, famed for his excursions into Ecuadorean territory and his successful war against the FARC. Some in Colombia feared than once in power Santos would be even more right-wing than Uribe.

And yet, since forming his government, Santos has been ‘accused’ of being too left not right wing. In recent months there have been a string of complaints from Santos’ Conservative coalition partners, and from within the U party itself that the government has focused too much on delivering the policies on the Liberal wishlist, rather than pushing through the initiatives championed by the right.

The Santos coalition now represents over 90 per cent of Congress. It is a coalition of right, centre and left so pleasing all of the folk all of the time is a difficult task for Santos. But while Conservatives have voiced their disquiet, there has been precious little complaint from the Liberals since Santos took over; in fact quite the opposite.

The Liberal movement has been emboldened since Uribe left office. As reported last month on this site, there is talk of reuniting the Liberal movement, which split when members left either to join the U party in support of Uribe, or the Cambio Radical party which was formed by now Interior Minister Vargas Lleras in opposition to Uribe. The name in the frame to lead this newly reunited force? President Santos, of course.

Liberals are confident that popular support for Santos, and his association with the Liberals, will turn into electoral success. According to the Colombian publication Semana, Colombian House of Representatives President and Liberal, Simon Gaviria (yes his father is former president Cesar Gaviria) has claimed that the Liberal Party will become the biggest political force in the country following the elections.

Conservative Senator Hernan Andrade admitted to Semana that the Liberal Party could be seen a possible winner of the elections, but claimed that this was down to good party organisation, rather than the tacit support offered by President Santos to the candidates.

But tellingly Andrade did admit that the party felt more at home in the government of Uribe. The U party have not been as obvious as the Conservatives about any discomfort they may or may not feel – but this is not surprising given Santos is still ruling under the U banner (and because the U is composed of a significant number of former Liberals).

Under the eight years of Uribe rule, the Conservatives were the key power broker (alongside the U party). It is unsurprising that they lament this (perceived) loss of influence on the direction the Government takes. However, there is little evidence that Colombians themselves regret this shift leftwards – support for Santos remains high (around 80% according to some polls), and if the predictions turn out to be true, the Liberals will be returned to power in greater numbers.

Colombia remains a right-wing country. There is little danger of a left-wing take over – even if Petro sweeps to power. However, there is a subtle shift in direction – away from the right-wing policies of the last decade. Santos is himself not left-wing. He is an extreme centrist, and ultra pragmatist – Colombians appear to be enjoying that.

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