'Hypocritical' 'hostile' and 'lacking in popular support' - these were the words former president Alvaro Uribe this month chose to describe his successor, President Santos.
In the 2010 presidential elections, Santos was Uribe's candidate. So much so, that Santos, in his victory speech, acknowledged that Colombians had voted as much for him as for Uribe. Yet after a series of high-profile public disagreements both over the direction and the style of the Santos government, Uribe, has come out as the most vocal - and powerful - opposition to a regime that controls over 90% of the Colombian Congress.
Uribe, dismayed by how his former apprentice is governing, has fired the first shots in the battle for the presidency in 2014. It is unclear whether Santos will run again. But if he decides to do so, Uribe now looks certain to pitch his own - opposition - candidate. The Uribe / Santos split is more than a spat. It will provide the backdrop to the power struggle at the heart of Colombian politics in the years to come.
Santos was elected as Uribe mark II
Not even Santos would deny that Uribe was the biggest single reason why he was elected president in 2010. Santos, defence minister in the last years of Uribe´s government, was dependent on the full force of his old boss´ election machine to make it to the Casa de Narino. Throughout the election campaign the media cast Santos as 'Uribe mark II', perhaps even 'Uribe Plus' - labels Santos himself was more than content to leave unchallenged
Yet, although he won on this platform, he has governed as an entirely different beast. This is betrayal for Uribe, who had hoped (expected) to exert considerable influence over Santos - perhaps even to continue governing vicariously.Uribe has found out the hard way that Santos is his own man.
The political reality in which 90% of the Colombian Parliament is part of the governing coalition means Santos is able to deliver his agenda without the support of his old boss. A bitter pill for the man who dominated Colombian politics for over decade.
The roots of discontent
Uribe's unhappiness at the Santos government is based as much in differencies of opinion over policy direction as it is in the perception that the current administration is systematically undermining the achievements of Uribe's time in office.
Of the policy differences perhaps the gravest is Uribe's scepticism of Santos´ commitment to the fight against the FARC. Santos is not the custodian of the ´democratic security´doctrine that Uribe had hoped for. The feeling in camp Uribe is that Santos has gone soft. The more liberal sounding ´democratic prosperity´ tag adopted by Santos does not smack of the hard-line no-nonsense kind of government Uribe likes to see. Equally poisonous for Uribe, however, is the way in which the government is washing in public the dirty clothes of the past by making public a series of corruption scandals which appear to implicate Uribe´s former colleagues. At times Uribe has appeared to be at war with German Vargas Lleras, Santos' Interior Minister, and the man in charge of bringing to light these scandals.
The cold-war turns hot
Although the damage Uribe felt the Santos regime was doing, both to the country and to his own reputation, was severe, he vowed to mute his public opposition during the campaign ahead of the regional and local elections on 30 October. After all, Uribe and Santos remain in the same political party, the U, and both understood that infighting would harm U party candidates contesting these elections across the country.
But as the results of the elections became clear, Uribe sharpened his tongue. The ex-president was not one of the victors of the elections; his candidates lost out in key battle grounds like Bogota and Medellin. But the news to follow was worse even than the election results. Within 48 hours of the vote count, Uribe was stirred into action, taking to the airwaves to condemn the government of his old friend as being hypocritical, and acting without popular support. The act that triggered Uribe's rage? - Santos´s decision to invite the leader of the Liberals, Rafael Pardo, to join his cabinet as Employment Minister. Doctor Pardo is one of Uribe´s biggest critics. His Liberal Party became the largest and most vocal opposition to the Uribe government in its final years. Moving to appoint such a man in the government over which he himself hoped to exert influence was for Uribe an ´hostile act´.
Since lambasting Santos on national radio, Uribe stepped up his attack - it is said he has since ordered parliamentarians loyal to him - within the President´s coalition government - to oppose key government policies, such as the reform of the judiciary when votes are held in Congress.
Despite efforts by the U party to bring about a truce, things have deteriorated even further over the course of the last few weeks. According to Santos, all communication with the ex-president is off, the former refusing to answer the president´s telephone calls. Worse still, yesterday Uribe was recorded speaking to opposition Venezuelan activists urging them to attack Santos for convening a meeting with Hugo Chavez on the 28 of this month. Quite extraordinary that Uribe's antipathy to Santos has led him as far as to drum up opposition from outside the country.
Battle for the future of Colombian politics
Bubbling up behind the spat are the venomous forces that will do battle in the presidential elections of 2014. At stake is the short and medium term future not only of Santos, but also of the three main political parties, the U, the Liberals and the Conservatives.
Four questions hold the key to understanding the political battles of the coming years. Will Santos run again? If so, on what platform, as a member of the U, or as a the candidate of a reunited Liberal Party? Would the Conservatives support Santos, or run their own candidate? Will Uribe put forward his own candidate?
Whether or not Santos runs in 2014 is unclear. He said only this week that if his goals are achieved before his mandate is up, he will retire from the scene. Santos has until a year before the elections to decide whether to put his name forward. Politicians in all three of the many parties (who are all of course members of the coalition government) will be preparing for two eventualities - one in which they support a Santos second term or one in which they launch their own candidate (either in opposition to Santos or in his absence).
The Liberals have said they will support Santos and the U and the Conservatives have also proposed to do the same. The intrigue is whether or how long they stick to this line. In the case of the Conservatives they are at something of a crossroads after a poor showing in the elections and the departure of their president Jose Dario Salazar. In the case of the U, that will depend on Santos, and on Uribe.
Allies loyal to Uribe this week floated the idea of an Uribe-backed Oscar Ivan Zuluaga candidature in 2014. If Santos were running on a U ticket this would split the party. There is also talk that Uribe will make a bid for the presidency of the U party when elections are held in the coming weeks. This seems unlikely however, as Uribe would be obliged to stay with the government, not oppose it (U party politicians in the majority are unlikely to want to follow Uribe out of power and into the wilderness of opposition).
The machinations of the U are enough to keep commentators guessing. But it is the potential for real change in the Liberal movement that introduces the greatest political uncertainty. Proposals are now afoot to reunite the Liberal movement, which split between 2002 and 2010 when members left to form the Cambio Radical Party, or to join the U Party in support of Uribe. Next month the Liberal Party is holding a special conference to identify a route map for the reunification (as reported earlier on this website). The potential of a reunited Liberal movement has commentators speculating that Santos could jump the U ship, and rejoin the party of his past. Both Santos and his family has a long history in the Liberal Party, and it's certainly the case that Santos' government has inclined more to the liberal than to the conservative.
Should the Liberal movement succeed in its reunification process, we might expect to see the departure of certain U politicians as they make their way back to their old home. It is extremely unlikely that over night Santos would be tempted to join them - but over the course of a presidential four year mandate, well he just might.
Santos' decision on the future will be impacted by what Uribe decides to do next and how difficult he makes life within the U. Uribe appears to have set his course - in opposition to Santos. He will not go quietly. The crucial question will be how much Uribe's allies in the Conservative and U parties listen to him. It is unlikely they will do anything to damage their future within a government that still has three years to run. But as the elections in 2014 come closer, and the position of the Liberal movement becomes firmer Uribe's friends will want to act to secure their future.
It was Uribe who in 2002, broke the Conservative/Liberal hegemony in Colombia. His election destroyed the two party state, and heralded a new pluralism in Colombia. Although he has left the presidential stage, Uribe's actions may yet help define Colombian party politics for years to come.
For the time being President Santos enjoys high approval ratings and has over 90% of Congress with him. His party remains loyal to him and his old party - the Liberals - want to claim him for their own. The only person who can threaten his position appears to be the very man who got him elected in the first place.