#Peace

Changing perceptions of Colombia – a personal story

Colombia Politics´ editor on Cable Noticias

This article was originally written for See Colombia Travel.

When I finished university (over) ten years ago and I packed my bags to set off to travel the Spanish speaking world, my father told me that under no circumstances was I allowed to go to Colombia. In the mind of dad, Colombia was synonymous with the FARC, with guerrillas groups and with – the nightmare scenario for my poor old man – kidnappings.

Eight years after my first six month trip to South America I finally made it to Colombia, and you know what, I fell in love with it and I haven’t been able to leave since.

Ten years ago the risk in coming here might well have been something altogether grizzlier, but as the tourist board says; now the real risk is that you’ll want to stay.

I write on politics and I see the development of Colombia through the political decisions taken by the top brass running the country. When I first started travelling, President Uribe had not yet entered power and the infamous peace talks of the Pastrana era were about to collapse in ignominy; the FARC had a presence in around 50% of the country and there were barrios full of those sympathetic to the Marxist revolution in even the capital, Bogota.

Uribe came to power in 2002 and for eight years he used the aid money secured as part of the Plan Colombia agreement signed with the US to take the fight to the FARC. Uribe’s Democratic Security strategy pushed back the FARC, took out key leaders and turned Colombia into a destination for foreign investments and for tourists. Over the years the economy doubled in size and the visitors began to stream through the doors.

Colombia’s image abroad was changing.

This process has continued during the Santos years (the president took office in August 2010) and the country is now more popular than ever for backpackers and luxury tourists alike. This website is testament to the allure of this mystical, and magical place. The government expects 4 million yearly visitors by 2014, at which point it will become $4 billion industry.  This was unthinkable as little as a decade ago when I was fresh out of university.

President Santos is fond of saying that Colombia ‘va por un buen camino’, that it’s heading in the right direction.

With the announcement this week that the government will sit down for peace talks with the FARC in October, many of us here are beginning to dream that Colombia’s almost five decade long war could be over within the year.

We know that Colombia is a tourist paradise. But we also know that during the 90s and the early years of this century, tourists were understandably scared away by FARC, and the violence of drug cartels. If President Santos can secure peace there will be no reason for the fathers of future travellers to warn their kids against travelling to Colombia.

The peace process will be complicated, the road bumpy and arduous. On my website I’ll be covering the talks from all angles, so please visit, join in the debate, and keep up to date with Colombia’s politics.

This article was published by See Colombia Travel

Peace in our time

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos today set a timetable for an end to Latin America’s longest-running armed conflict announcing that peace talks with FARC guerrillas will begin in October and conclude within ‘months’.
At 12.30pm, to a television audience of millions and flanked by the nation’s military leaders and his cabinet, the president confirmed what for months rumours have dared to speculate; Colombia’s bloody and pointless war could be over next year (before the presidential elections of 2014).

Within the hour, FARC leader Timochenko, took to the airwaves from the safe-house of Cuba. With his professorial beard and camouflage livery the rebel chief spoke at length, spitting out his Marxist hatred, and in the end resigning to the reality that peace cannot be achieved by ‘war’ but only through ‘civilised dialogue’.

Frankly, the game is up for the FARC, and they know it; their dream of a Communist revolution is in tatters as Colombia develops into one of the fastest growing economies in the world, and as its people in record number are lifted out of poverty.

Timochenko understands he must save face and secure a dignified exit for his jackbooted comrades. The negotiating table is the only way out for his cornered rabble.

Yet there are those in Colombia who remain understandably sceptical that these kidnappers, extortionists, murderers and torturers have the will to bid a farewell to arms.

None more so than ex-President Álvaro Uribe who this afternoon launched a tirade of abuse at the FARC and also at what he sees as a government of appeasers. For Uribe, Santos is rather like 1930s British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain who announced he had secured ‘peace in our time’ a year before Hitler’s aggression sparked World War II.

Uribe argues the government is acting in haste, sacrificing the advances in security made during his eight years in power to secure re-election in two years’ time.

How can you trust a FARC who refuse to enter into a ceasefire and who threaten to continue the bombing and the killing throughout the peace talks? How can the political elite sit at the table with these criminals to discuss peace while the military is at war? Uribe’s rhetoric certainly resonates with sections of a society tired of the FARC’s duplicity, and chastened by the disappointment of previous promises for a negotiated cessation of violence.

Time will tell whether the detractors are right and whether the FARC is bluffing, but I see cause to be hopeful that they are not. Last week I set out nine reasons why these talks are different from the past failures, and why a successful outcome is within reach.

There is not space here to reiterate them, but the overwhelming truth is that balance in power is different now than it was at the end of the last century when the then President Andrés Pastrana initiated talks in Caguán. Then the FARC believed they had a chance of installing a Communist state, and the Colombian government sat down with a weak hand. Now the guerrillas are a depleted force, in troops, in morale, and in leadership (both the military chief strategist Mono Jojoy and the previous overall leader, Alfonso Cano have been killed in the space of the last two years). It is time to face the reality of defeat.

Another reason for hope, overlooked by some, is that since coming to power in August 2010, the Santos government has paved the way for peace through a series of important legislative changes that allow for the integration of the FARC into civil society; an opportunity to pursue their ends through politics rather than armed combat.

The new transitional justice law allows Santos to place a meaningful offer on the table, one that Timochenko should take.  Provision is made within this law for reduced penal sentences (but not impunity) and the possibility of elected political representation (potentially throughout the tiers of governance) for those who share the FARC’s philosophy.

As with the IRA in Northern Ireland, the ballot box must replace the bullet. Martin McGuiness and Gerry Adams before the ‘Good Friday Agreement’ of 1998 were terrorists. Both have since been at the top of Northern Irish politics and presided over perhaps the most successful decade in the country’s history.

The IRA famously trained the FARC during the 80s and 90s. It would be less than surprising if Timochenko has one eye on following in the footsteps of his former comrades.

We are about to enter into a crucial period in Colombian history. Santos may be remembered as the father of peace and the president who finally ended one of the world’s most bloody insurgencies.  Alternatively, the FARC could again pull the plug, and prove Uribe right.

Timochenko’s discourse today in which he spoke of capitalism’s dehumanisation and enslavement of the people, in which he spoke of an ‘alternative Colombia’ sounded more like a manifesto launch than an indignant battle cry. For those on the far left, currently represented by Piedad Córdoba’s Marcha Patriótica, this was a clarion call, a sign to ready for an election campaign – perhaps as early as the congressional elections in 2014. While it is too soon for the ‘new, civilian FARC’ to have a presence, former commanders may urge sympathisers to unite around Córdoba.

Finally, Timochenko is wrong to say that dialogue is the end – disarmament is the end. We will not believe the FARC until they lay down their arms.

The might of rhetorical argument must replace the bullet of terrorism.

This was a piece for Colombia Reports.

FARC´s PR war as peace talks loom

FARC fighters, many are women and children.

Colombia’s FARC guerrillas yesterday released a video of combatants rapping about forthcoming bilateral peace talks with the government, the details of which President Juan Manuel Santos will confirm at 12.30today in a special address to the nation.
The process will be long and arduous and the outcome is unknown, but this is the best chance for peace in the history of the near 50 year conflict.
If peace is the end game, this video, which attempts to present a humorous side to the brutal reality of this terrorist group, is the start of a fierce public relations war in which the battle is for the hearts and minds of the 46 million Colombians that make up this Andean nation.
A music video circulated yesterday in which FARC foot-soldiers appear in combat gear and t-shirts marked with the face of the Argentine revolutionary Che Guevarra singing along to a five minute parody of the peace talks scheduled to take place in October.
The film is amusing (but ultimately offensive given its origin) and pokes fun not only at the government, and Colombian society, but also at the guerrilla group itself. No one should be fooled however; this is a clever political broadcast designed to disseminate the FARC’s message ahead of President Santos’ speech to the nation this afternoon.
When the President speaks from the press office of the Casa de Nariño, as millions of Colombians sit down for the traditional family lunch, he is expected to allude to the mistakes of the past, the tragedy and criminality of the war, and point the way to the sunlight uplands of a Colombia in peace.
He will be prudent, but optimistic, and ask the nation to join him, to lend him their support and together work to secure a permanent disarmament of the FARC and an end to this pointless and bloody insurgency.
Colombian society is split; for some, the desire for peace does not win over the scepticism and hatred for a duplicitous FARC that has brought misery to the country while it pursues communist revolutionary ends.
Santos has reshuffled his government and prepared a detailed communication strategy to help build popular support which he hopes will fight off the snipping from the sidelines and the fierce opposition to negotiations that ex-president Alvaro Uribe has been fuelling since news of the talks emerged last week.
Polls suggest that, for now, over half the nation support the talks and the efforts of the government to secure peace. As the agenda for the talks becomes known today and as the bitterness increases ahead of the first meeting expect to be in Oslo (later the negotiations will move to Cuba) it is unclear how this generosity of spirit will hold up.
Worse still, once the table is set and the real discussions begin, the distrust and fear will begin in earnest. Will Colombian accept a legitimate political role for the FARC, will they accept reduced sentences for those who have committed crimes against humanity? The campaign run by Uribistas (those loyal to the ex-president) is centred around the simple but effective message – ‘Peace, but not at any price’. It is a message that it already resonating.
Both sides – the government and the FARC – are working to ensure they enter the talks with the best possible hand. Any weakness on either side will be capitalised on. The FARC know that Santos’ mandate is based on the will of the people, and they will fight dirty to move public opinion towards their position, and away from that of the government.
Watching the video (judge for yourself, left) closely it is clear that the FARC are not only attempting to present a human side, attempting to build an empathy with the nation, but they are also satirising the government.
Santos is lampooned as a member of the bourgeoisie, a political oligarch; distant from the working and middle classes. Their message is clear – the FARC represent the ‘pueblo’, and theirs is the same fight as the near 50% of Colombians who live in poverty (pure theatre of course). The president is also given the nickname ‘Chucky’ in an allusion to a popular series of 90s horror films (to whom Santos is alleged to bear an unfortunate liking).
The selection of young – men and women – fighters who look and sound (more or less) like ordinary Colombians is an obvious tactic to increase their reach into an uncertain public, as is the selection of the Che -faced t-shirts.
Guevarra remains an idol among the romantic left and student movements the world over. No matter that he was a murderous supporter of oppressive regimes; his is a ‘fight the system’ narrative that attracts a hippy and pseudo-socialist cult following.
There is little doubt that some in Colombia (and across the world) will identify with these misguided revolutionaries.
At the end of the video, ‘Timochenko’, the supreme leader of the FARC appears to announce that the rebels will enter into the talks without ‘rancour or arrogance’. For him this is a show of willing, a public commitment to the fight for peace. Nevertheless, the bombs and the attacks continue and the FARC are far from anything resembling a cease-fire.
This video is a highly cynical piece of PR. The phony war is over. The fight for peace and public opinion has begun.
As its fades to black, the video leaves us with Timochenko’s promise that victory will be theirs. We must hope he is referring, as Santos did last week, to ‘peace’ as being ‘the victory’. All eyes turn now to President Santos who will take the stage in a matter of minutes.
Also published on Redes Colombia

 

 

Peace talks in Colombia – Nine reasons to be optimistic

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos on Monday confirmed preliminary talks are underway with the FARC to secure peace in Colombia. Official negotiations are scheduled for October.

Details are yet to be confirmed by the presidential palace and so we must wait for news on the location (expected to be both Cuba and Oslo), who will be present (the Chilean and Venezuelan governments appear set to act as guarantors), and the agenda (to include drug trafficking, land reform, and political representation).

While international and Colombian media alike have welcomed the news, at home in Colombia, there is some understandable scepticism. And in certain sectors there is even hostility to the idea of sitting down with criminals and murderers.

The talks represent the clearest opportunity in the history of the 50 year war to find an exit to this meaningless struggle in which the lives of thousands of Colombians have been sacrificed to an unrealistic and immoral communist revolutionary dream.

The time has come for optimism and this website has ten reasons to dream of peace.

  1. An ending. When the last talks began their outcome was unclear. It was unknown what  was being negotiated-was it a cease-fire, or territory, or peace? The end game had not been established before the talks began, and both parties entered with different results in mind. This time, President Santos has been clear, the unique purpose of the talks is a termination of the conflict. Peace, full stop is the outcome he wants, and the FARC by entering into the talks accept this premise.
  2. Mutual trust. Talks have been underway for months, yet only now that an agreement has been reached have we learnt of their existence. Sure, there has been speculation, but the FARC have not broken ranks to manipulate the media, the president has (for the most part) maintained control over the flow of information.
  3. The fight is lost. The guerrillas know the game is up. The last time the sides sat down the FARC had over 15,000 fighters and were present in around 50% of the nation. They entered the talks with the upper hand, and the dream of the taking Bogotá by force was within reach. After the US Plan Colombia funded just shy of a decade of military action against the FARC during the Uribe (and now Santos) governments, the rebels have been reduced to a rump of around half the number of their  2002 troops, and have been pushed back into remote mountain hideouts.
  4. Favourable legislation. The Santos government has already established the legal code for transitional justice. As a result, FARC leaders have security that agreements negotiated in Oslo can be delivered by the government – that there is little potential for the legislature to pull the plug. In addition, the ‘framework for peace’ law allows for the integration (of demobilised) combatants into civil society, also making provision for involvement in the political ambit (both key FARC demands). Finally, the Santos administration has passed the ‘land restitution’ act, which neutralises one of the FARC’s long-term political struggles.
  5. Balance. All peace talks need balance. Parity of representation is an essential component in successful negotiations. So, whilst it is difficult to find a person in Colombia content with the news that Chavez will be present, history tells us that guarantors (for both sides) are basic requirements. Chavez will facilitate conversations with the FARC while the Chilean government will be Santos’ interlocutor. It is worth remembering that at the last talks, Piedad Cordoba acted as a go-between for the government but her evident proximity to the FARC (for which she was eventually banned from office) meant she was seen as Janus-faced, ultimately useful to neither side.
  6. Cease-fire? The Pastrana talks failed in part because they concentrated almost exclusively on seeking an agreement to establish a (form of) cease-fire, (which ultimately the FARC contravened). This time the Government has revealed that a cease-fire is not a prerequisite for the talks to take place. Santos will not permit the FARC to catch the government out and has committed his military to defend every ‘centimetre’ of the national territory – the war continues even while peace is being sought. Against this background Piedad Cordoba entered the debate this week, providing hope that – despite it not being a deal breaker – the FARC are willing adopt a cessation of violence. Were this to happen it would help to strike out a central argument of those opposed to the talks – namely that the FARC have not shown ‘willing’.
  7. Clear agenda. If the rumours are true about the detail of the agenda for discussion in Oslo, it will be impossible for either party to argue any of the key themes were ‘off the table’. Often peace talks collapse because one party uses the excuse that an issue central to their community has been ignored. This time we will have a complete agenda that both parties have signed off during the pre-talks phase.
  8. Left-wing role models. The FARC grew up out of the frustration of the Liberal Conservative two-party state. There was no voice for the (far) left and the philosophical leaders of the movement saw the only route to power through arms. Following the constitution of 1991 other political actors have been permitted and the left now has a voice in parliament (principally through the Progresistas and Polo). Alongside this, Latin America has seen the emergence of left-wing leaders, legitimately elected to lead their respective countries. These left-wingers offer a blue-print for achieving – through peaceful means – socialist ends. Such politicians include Brazil’s Lula, Peru’s Ollanta Humala, and of course Bogota’s Gustavo Petro. The ballot box not the bullet is the model for 21st Century leftism.
  9. Political support President Santos has been provided with strong political backing from the 94% of Congress within his coalition government. While the U party has ‘nuances’, there is virtual unanimity elsewhere, with even the opposition party the Polo Democrats in favour. Ex-presidents Samper and Pastrana have lent their support, while Cesar Gaviria is tipped to form part of Santos’ delegation. Ex-president Uribe finds his position of opposition a lonely place. Santos can enter with talks without having to have one eye on what the parliament will stomach – it will vote through just about any agreement.

The outcome of the talks cannot be predicted with any degree of certainty. The conditions, however, are more favourable than ever before. Nothing can be taken for granted and the question of the FARC’s willingness to play ball remains open.

Scepticism is understandable, defeatism is not.

Also published on Redes Colombia

Dare we dream of peace in Colombia?

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos confirmed Monday evening that his government has entered into exploratory talks with the FARC to negotiate an end to 50 years of conflict.

Earlier in the day Venezuelan television channel Telesur reported that both sides had signed an agreement to advance official peace negotiations scheduled for 5 October, in Oslo; details Santos refused to confirm.

The president has received support from across the political spectrum and in the country’s media. Ex-president Alvaro Uribe, however has denounced his successor as a traitor and an appeaser.After ex-President Pastrana’s failed attempt to secure peace over a decade ago, and following a recent upsurge in FARC activity, there are also parts of Colombian society sceptical of Santos’ ability to end the continent’s longest-running civil war.

Dare we dream of a Colombia in peace?

Talking behind closed doors.

President Santos has promised in the coming days to reveal the details of the 30 meetings held in private between his government and the FARC over recent months in Cuba. What we know is that Enrique Santos, the president’s brother led the delegation, and that representatives of the Chávez and Castro regimes were present. We also understand agreement was reached on the agenda for talks, the issues for negotiation and potentially the red-lines.

 

Crucially, it is reported that the facilitators were able to establish a level of trust between the terrorist group and the government (evidenced by the FARC’s decision to maintain silence throughout the day and wait for the President to speak) – essential if peace talks are to be successful.

Santos has received severe criticism from Uribe and his followers – both for entering into discussion while bombs explode and battles rage, and for doing so clandestinely.

But Uribe is not the only source of opposition, there are sections of society highly critical of Santos’ approaches to the guerrilla group. They point to the level of violence evident in different regions of the country and argue that the FARC are not ready to negotiate.

They might have a point, but analysing the situation differently it is easy to see that the FARC’s recent actions are a sign of desperation, a last-ditch attempt to improve their position at the negotiating table.

Neverthless it will be difficult for President Santos to hold his coalition and the nation together throughout  a peace process whose timescales are unknown. The president has confirmed that the talks are not conditioned on a cease-fire, and will therefore run parallel with the battles, the deaths, the bombs and the political recriminations. The guerrillas will seek to prove they are still a viable fighting force, we must not allow them to convince us that they are.

 

How will the talks work?

President Santos made clear that the country had learnt the errors of the past. The infamous talks at El Caguan that broke down in 2002 have become a byword for the FARC’s duplicity. The rebel group ridiculed Pastrana’s government with broken promises that forced Colombians to lose all confidence in their political leaders. Uribe came to power on the back of the collapse in these talks, promising to punish the FARC.

Santos is a statesman that has studied closely this episode, and of course more successful negotiations across the world. He has previously sought help from former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair who masterminded the famous peace agreement in Northern Ireland.

He is also a president who has worked for decades to end the conflict. Even in 1997 when Santos was the Liberal’s pre-candidate for the presidential elections of 1998, he had a clear plan for peace. When Santos entered the presidential palace he placed the search for peace not only at the heart of his inauguration speech, but also his legislative agenda.

Santos is desperate for his legacy to be the president that delivered peace to Colombia.

As well as Santos’ abilities there are other reasons to be optimistic that the mistakes of the past will not be repeated. The most important is perhaps the change in dynamic between the government and the FARC. In 2002 the state was weak while the guerrillas were in the ascendancy.

There was no imperative for the FARC to negotiate or give up a struggle they had every chance of winning. Following Plan Colombia and the money invested during the Uribe years in fighting back the rebels, the Colombian state has emerged healthy and economically successful while the guerrillas are on their last legs.

Equally, the government is in a significantly better position to offer the FARC what they want. The transitional justice laws are in place that will permit a negotiated settlement for criminal punishments, and also lies open the way for political representation. Additionally, the Santos regime can point to the land restitution law which helps deliver a flagship FARC demand for rural community justice.

Finally, the Caguan peace talks were dominated by discussions about securing a cease-fire and a demilitarised zone. In Oslo this will not be on the agenda, permitting the focus to lie instead on the fundamental issues upon which a lasting peace can be established.

Speculation suggests that the talks will centre on the following issues:

  • Narco-Trafficking
  • Reintegration into civil society and political representation
  • Rural development
  • Human rights

 

Once Santos – in the coming days – starts to confirm the detail of the talks, it is hoped he will also reveal the names of the negotiators. It is speculated that ex-president Cesar Gaviria will lead the government team, with a significant international contingent including Hugo Chávez and Chilean President Piñera also expected to be present.
While there has been no word from the FARC, and questions remain about the ability of its top brass to speak with unity for the fractured organisation, Timochenko and Fabián Ramírez are tipped to participate.

 

So is peace in sight?

 

The conditions are not perfect, the FARC remain a force whose acts of atrocity have increased dramatically since the turn of the year. But the conditions will never be ideal, and it is clear that neither the government  nor the guerrillas have achieved their goals through military means.

 

 

By holding the talks in Oslo (famous for negotiated peace settlements between the Israelis and the Palestinians, the Tamil Tigers and the Sri Lankan government among others) in the presence of the international community, it will be difficult for either side to complain of bias or illegitimacy.

 

 

An unresolved question is how involved the Colombian people will become and how President Santos can keep them onside. There are rumours that the government have hosted a series of focus-groups across the country, to understand reaction to the guerrillas and to possible peace accords. Now the talks are in the open, the government cannot afford to risk losing popular support as it inevitably asks Colombians to swallow unpleasant concessions.

 

The Colombian government has a constitutional duty to seek peace and President Santos’ efforts must be supported. The FARC are a spent force whose leaders have spoken of their desire to bring the war to an end. They have fooled us before, but this time things might just be different.

Uribe will continue to attack but he should reflect that the advances in security made during his eight years in power have made today’s announcement possible. When Uribe entered office he spoke of his hope that the guerrilla would demobilise and that Colombia would have a ‘politics with arms’. It will be a long a painful journey, but the alternative is another decade of bombs, bullets, kidnappings and assassinations.

A Colombia in peace is the ‘country within reach of the children’ as Garcia Márquez put it.

Also published on Redes Colombia


 

FARC leader returns from the dead to offer Colombians peace

Ramírez, photo El Tiempo

Leading FARC terrorist Fabián Ramírez, thought to have been killed in an air raid in 2010, reappeared in public yesterday through a video broadcast by Caracol Television in which he appeared to offer Juan Manuel Santos’ government a way out of Colombia’s civil war.
During an interview with British journalist Karl Penhaul, Ramírez, the second in command of the Marxist guerrilla group’s ‘Southern Bloc’, is seen arguing for an ‘agreement (between the government and the FARC) to end the war’. Peace, he says, should be sought through dialogue and negotiation. Is he fooling anyone?
Ramírez’s comments have been welcomed by Senate President and former Peace Comissioner Roy Barreras, for whom they represent a ‘change in tone’ from the FARC’s top brass. Santos’ Government, through Defence Minister Pinzón, however, has downplayed the importance of the video, arguing that the words of a ‘terrorist and drug trafficker who has consistently lied to Colombia’ cannot be trusted. Ex-President Alvaro Uribe has been equally dismissive of the ‘limitless cynicism’ of the rebel combatants, urging Colombians, in a video of his own, not to fall victim to the rebels’ strategy to win hearts and minds.
A blow to the FARC?
In November 2010 President Santos announced the death of alias Fabián Ramírez, the head of the FARC’s military operations in the south of Colombia, following a successful air-raid carried out in Caquetá. It was just four months into Santos’ regime and the president was now able to point to two major successes in his military campaign against the FARC, having in September already taken out the terrorist group’s military top gun ‘Mono Jojoy’.
A whiff of doubt has remained about the veracity of Ramírez’s death, however. It proved impossible for the military categorically to identify his body among those fallen, and rumours quickly began to circulate that he had escaped to Ecuador. The sudden appearance on camera yesterday of course confirms these suspicions. It also invites us to the conclusion that the recent upsurge in FARC violence – which has been particularly evident in the south of the country – has been orchestrated by this supposedly dead commander (either from within the country or across the border).
A search for peace?
There is much to suggest that ex-President Uribe is right and that the words transmitted during the interview form part of the FARC’s strategy to shift blame for the continued war away from themselves and on to the political class.
During Ramírez’s broadcast he communicates clearly what public relations executives would call the FARC’s ‘key messages’. He argues that the greed of the political class is to blame for the failure in the search for peace. His analysis is that the army and their elected masters need the war to perpetuate in order to secure the continued flow of  money (both in terms of US aid and through Colombian state coffers) they have grown to enjoy. It is a simplistic view but it is one whose imagined truth resonates with elements of Colombian society.
In spite of the FARC’s veil of innocence it is clear that little willingness to hold a truce and talk seriously of peace has been shown in the time since Santos came to power.
Coincidentally or otherwise the well-regarded independent media outlet, La Silla Vacía decided to publish today – directly following Ramírez’s appearance – the results of its analysis into the country’s security situation which show a significant increase in the number of terrorist incidents in the last year. La Silla revealed that attacks against infrastructure have shot up by over 100%, while ambushes or harassment of either civilian or the armed forces have risen by over 50%. This panorama is made worse when we consider the scenes of war witnessed throughout last month in the department of Cauca, and if we remind ourselves of the report by academics at the University of Sergio Arboleda in early July in which the FARC were reported to have returned to 50 of the territories from which in recent years they had been evicted.
There is no doubt that despite the blows that President Santos has struck against the FARC and despite the dwindling numbers of plastic booted rebels willing to fight, there is a renewed energy and an apparent vigour to recent military campaigns.
The hope is that this is a blaze of glory, the scream of a dying beast. President Santos argues that the dice has rolled for the last time and that following the deaths of Mono Jojoy  – and more importantly – that of the overall leader Alfonso Cano at the end of the 2011, the FARC’s days are numbered.
Santos’ analysis has led him to work with Senator Roy Barreras to create a legal framework for transitional justice should the FARC enter into peace talks and decide to demobilise. This framework was passed during the last session of congress and establishes the basis on which the crimes of former combatants would be judged. It also makes provision for certain elements of these illegal armed forces to enter the national political arena.
Uribe and his followers have criticised the new law for appearing to appease terrorist groups but the government argues it is a necessary legislative step to permit a fruitful outcome to potential peace talks. Many political commentators have insinuated that such talks are already taking place, in private ‘under the table’. Although this is possible it is something that President Santos himself fiercely denies, and the actions of the FARC do little to suggest that – if they are taking place – a conclusion is anywhere near in sight.
Who holds the cards?
That there will be a negotiation in the future is a certainty, but it is a question of when, and more importantly, on what terms. The FARC’s recent upsurge in violence is designed to improve their hand when they get to the table, while the government’s insistence that the guerrilla group is on its last legs plays to the same strategy. The war continues while the peace remains phony.
The appearance of Ramírez in this latest video must be seen in this context. His words are designed to attract sympathy, to play politics and to try to win an argument. The FARC are exploiting public scepticism in their political leaders to paint themselves as the victims; as the flag-bearers of truth and justice. The majority of Colombians will not be fooled by this, but there are sections of the society ready to side with anti-political forces, and Santos must ensure he does not lose a single heart or a single mind as peace moves closer.
Also posted on Redes Colombia