#Cambio Radical

German Vargas Lleras, a political biography

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An ever ready and ever optioned presidential candidate, electorate favorite German Vargas Lleras might very well represent Colombia’s political future.  The principle cause being, that German Vargas Lleras is a politician who embodies Colombia’s political past.  He embodies that certain archetype of Colombia politician, who’s born into a family with political power, changes parties according to political convenience, fiercely opposes former political allies when necessary, and is not overly concerned about sharing party ranks with members of Colombia’s illegal armed groups.

Vargas Lleras has promoted and led movements whose names evoke change, like Nuevo Liberalismo (New Liberalism) and Cambio Radical (Radical Change),and yet, he has always managed to become an active member of traditional officialism.

As the grandson of former president Carlos Lleras Restrepo, Vargas Lleras was born into political power. He holds a lawyer’s degree from traditional Universidad del Rosario as well as a master’s Degree in Government and Public Administration obtained at Universidad Complutense de Madrid.

Vargas Lleras’ career as a politician began at a very young age, not yet surpassing his late teens. Following his grandfather’s footsteps, Vargas Lleras joined the ranks of the Liberal Party. At first, he was part of the dissident branch named Nuevo Liberalismo headed by Luis Carlos Galan.  Galan appointed Vargas Lleras to coordinate his campaign, and also to coordinate political support in Los Martires sector of Bogota.

In 1988, Vargas Lleras was voted councilman for the Bojaya City Council.  A year later, while giving a speech during his presidential campaign, Luis Carlos Galan was assassinated. Galan’s death led to the dissolution of Nuevo Liberalismo, and thus, Vargas Lleras decided to return to his grandfather’s Liberal Party. Time would later show that Galan’s magnicide was planned by then Liberal Party Senator Alberto Santofimio, in coordination with another (by then former) Liberal Party Senator, Pablo Escobar.

As a member of the Liberal Party, Vargas Lleras was elected to the Bogota City Council, occupying the post of councilman from 1990 to 1994. During his time there, Vargas Lleras became its president, in 2011, he received a decoration from that institution recognizing his political career.

After his second term as councilman, Vargas Lleras successfully made the leap to the senate. He would be elected another three consecutive terms, holding senatorial office from 1994 until 2006. During his first years in the Colombian Senate, Vargas Lleras became known for his ardent opposition to Conservative President Andres Pastrana’s peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

The Liberal Party’s favorable stance regarding the peace talks resulted in a party change for Vargas Lleras. And thus, the Colombia Siempre movement was born. Vargas Lleras secured another term in the senate running for Colombia Siempre. At the same time, he supported another Liberal Party dissident’s campaign, that of former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. The fierce opposition to Pastrana’s peace talks with FARC created the Vargas Lleras-Uribe political alliance for the 2002 congressional and presidential elections.

These eventful times also witnessed the first of two assassination attempts made on Vargas Lleras, presumably by the National Liberation Army (ELN).  In 2003, Vargas Lleras became President of the Senate as the Colombia Siempre movement became a part of Radical Change Party. Soon after, Vargas Lleras also became the President of Radical Change.

After securing these important posts, the now hugely influential Uribista figure suffered a second assassination attempt in 2005, this time presumably, orchestrated by Colombian secret police state forces. During this period of his stay in the senate, Vargas Lleras supported Alvaro Uribe’s presidential reelection, his call for constitutional reform and his presidential campaign, despite evidence of corruption and paramilitary infiltration in officialist U Party. In terms of public policy, Radical Change supported officialism, as a member of Alvaro Uribe’s governing coalition.

Scandal maculated Vargas Lleras in 2006 as a result of the so called “parapolitics” congressional disgrace.  Forty percent of the congressmen belonging to Vargas Lleras’ Radical Change party were suspended for alleged ties (many later proven true) with terrorist organizations. As the head of Radical Change, Vargas Lleras stood accountable for the party’s political actions.

Two years later, Vargas Lleras once again made big headlines by withdrawing support from former President Uribe’s attempt at a second constitutional reform, which would give legal base to his second reelection. Instead of supporting Uribe, Vargas Lleras left the Senate, and announced his candidacy for presidential office.

And thus, Vargas Lleras paradoxically ended up running against former political ally, and political heir to Uribe, Juan Manuel Santos (amongst other candidates) in the 2010 Colombian Presidential election. Vargas Lleras’ attempt at the presidency was quite ill-fated, securing just 10% of the votes. Yet his political career was not over yet, former election rival (now president) Juan Manuel Santos, appointed Vargas Lleras as his Interior and Justice Minister, and thus, Radical Change returned to officialism.

Shortly after, Vargas Lleras was named Housing Minister, were he has promised to deliver 100.000 houses for the poor. Regardless of the many scandals around him (perhaps even because of them), Vargas Lleras remains a political figure with ample support, holding a considerable chance of one day becoming Colombia’s Head of State.

German Vargas Lleras – Presidente?

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Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos appeared on Friday to throw his weight behind top cabinet ally, housing minister German Vargas Lleras’ possible tilt at the presidency in 2018.

Rumours of Santos’ support for the popular and charismatic Vargas Lleras have circulated for over two years, but confirmation of the president’s wishes were revealed to La FM listeners 48 hours ago:  “He has all the necessary qualities to be president, and I would like to see him in this role one day”.

Just a fortnight ago Vargas Lleras reiterated his unconditional support for Santos and is not expected to run should his boss decide to pitch for re-election in 2014. Vargas Lleras is likely to play a major role in this campaign – using it is a platform for 2018.  His work as interior and housing minister is central to the Santos regime’s efforts to present a progressive platform.

Vargas Lleras is part of Colombia’s political oligarchy, grandson of 60s president Carlos Lleras Restrepo and  is currently in charge of delivering a programme of free housing to the nation’s poor. This role has helped him to continue to grow the popular base of support not only crucial for his electoral mathematics, but also in his “positioning” as a One Nation politician.

During the La FM interview Santos hinted at the working relationship between the two men who are said to share the same instinctively liberal politics. Like Santos, Vargas Lleras left the Liberal Party early this century to establish an alternative movement; while Santos formed the U Party, Vargas Lleras became the head of the Cambio Radical party, the group from which he launched the 2010 presidential campaign.

Since joining the Santos government, Vargas Lleras has been consistently cited as a top performing minister and also as a successor to Santos.  Assuming Santos is re-elected in 2014 he is almost certain to face a congress much less willing to bend over backwards for him as it has done over the last two years. Ex President Alvaro Uribe, now the most vocal opposition politician in the land is set to launch a list of candidates for the congress a number of which have a very real prospect of becoming elected. Should this happen, congress will be divided and Santistas will find their power reduced significantly.

A possible scenario is that Vargas Lleras, a consummate congressional politician, returns to front Santos’ relations with the parliament, providing him with the profile and visibility necessary to attack the Uribista rump – quite conceivably the largest or second largest group in the senate.

In this case, with Santos unable to run for a second re-election, Vargas Lleras would be anointed his bosses successor to fight against an Uribista candidate in 2018.

Is this mere futurology? Quite possibly.

A week is famously a long time in politics, so five years is a life time. Nevertheless, as unpredictable as Colombian politics can be, it is almost a universal truth that those who belong to the top political families end up in the top political jobs.  Vargas Lleras is as talented as he is ambitious, as charismatic as he is experienced. A right-wing liberal who has delivered for the poor. It sounds a very possible winning combination.