#elections

Colombia needs an alternative

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Colombia`s presidential election has an air of inevitability about it. Ok, so 66% of Colombians don`t want to re-elect President Santos. But they don`t much fancy the list of other options, either.

Oscar Ivan Zuluaga ex-president Alvaro Uribe`s man, struggles for votes above 15%, while Clara Lopez and other leftie candidates are within the margin of error.

The candidate with the best change of beating Santos is the “voto en blanco”, or the spoilt ballot. He/she currently sits just three points behind the president.

Abstention too has a chance of winning; nearly half of Colombians remain unsure who is the lesser of evils.

We`re six months away from the first round vote in the presidential election (if no candidate wins an absolute majority he or she must face a run off with the second placed runner up) and there is plenty of time for the nation to decide which way to jump.

However, there is a strange sense that it is not that Colombians are undecided, but antipathetic. Abstention might not reflect laziness but a nationwide collective turning up of the nose.

Anecdotally I have found not a soul who wants to see Santos in power come August (when the new president is sworn in). But equally, most struggle to identify an alternative, and confess they may end up voting for him to keep out a worse option (a leftie or a rightie depending on their politics).

Colombia`s democracy is a curious beast, and it would be foolish to pretend that corruption and outright vote buying will not play a significant role in the outcome of the elections. Nevertheless, it IS important what the electorate think and want – despite the best efforts of many to avoid this reality – and a move in voter sentiment if it is particularly strong could bring about real change.

So, while I still believe that Santos should just about scrape home to victory, there are two alternative scenarios:

1. The voto en blanco campaign captures the public mood, and Colombians decide to send a message to their overly oligarchical political class. In the event that the “white wave”, as it is now being called, tops the poll, elections will have to be recalled, with none of the previous candidates allowed to stand again. What fun that would be!

2. A surprise figure, a new, inspiring and intelligent figure emerges to offer change hope and a path to the sunlit uplands…well, we can hope, can´t we? Perhaps the white knight won`t arrive, but a reasonable, palatable politician must be out there somewhere.

In 2002 Alvaro Uribe appeared almost from nowhere. With just months to go he was hopelessly behind, registering very low in the polls, but his populist message of enough is enough led him to take the elections in the first round.

Equally, the Green candidate and former Bogota Mayor, Antanas Mockus in 2010 managed to bring about Colombia`s first social media revolution, building what looked like an unstoppibly popular movement. But Mockus faded just as quickly as he had surged and Santos won comfortably.

So, Colombia is desperately seeking a Mockus; but this time a Mockus with staying power. Education, health, justice – the platforms on which this candidate could run are as endless as the reforms to the system are urgent.

Arise…¡Dios me oiga!

Picture, Global Post

Santos in dock over bumper $4,000 congress pay deal

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Colombia´s Congressmen have won a whopping $4,000 (dollar) increase in take home pay.

Last night Santos used the presidential decree to deliver this eye-watering pay rise, caving into pressure caused by a week-long strike that crippled the legislature.

Vital government business was sidelined as senators and house representatives refused to turn up to work, enacting what is known as the “tortoise plan”, a form of filibustering based on absenteeism.

Politicians are exploiting weakness at the heart of a regime that over the summer months has struggled to contain civil unrest, and has seen a recent collapse in its public support.

Nationwide strikes, scepticism at the peace talks with the FARC in Havana, and a gloomy economic outlook, have combined in a perfect storm for Santos, who must next month announce whether he intends to run for re-election next May.

Scenting blood, congressmen are playing a game of chicken with the government, determined to back Santos into a corner. Rebels sense they now have leverage over the government´s political agenda.

But Santos´authority is being challenged not only politically but on technical and administrative issues. Yesterday`s decision to award the bumper 8 million peso pay out is a major u-turn for Santos, having been forced to go back on a decision to cut pay he had made just days earlier – and to great fanfare in the media.

Commentators are beginning to express concern for Santos’ future, with former President Andres Pastrana´s claiming his successor is now a “lame duck”.

Pastrana might be exaggerating, but Santos is certain now damaged goods.

Until recent months Santos`three years in charge had been characterised by a weak and virtually unanimous (in his favour) congress. Santos´national coalition government in theory controls over 90% of parliament, but as elections approach, the unity of the group looks increasingly fractured.

Conservatives are said to want out, but are waiting to see whether Santos decides to run again.

Meanwhile Santos`capitulation is being widely condemned by Colombians who see a congress increasingly out of touch with the realities of life in a nation in which average pay is little more than $700.  Social media users have rounded on what they see as greed, and incompetence on the Capitolio.

The protest group, the Tomato Party have called a “cacerolazo” – a protest where pots and pans are bashed loudly – against the congress tonight, while others make the case for the impeachment of the entire legislature.

But Colombians´anger is not just restricted to the issue of pay. The nation`s wrath has been stoked by their representatives refusal to debate new health laws.

Last week the government tabled a bill designed to deliver major reform of Colombia´s ailing health service. Health is said to be one of the voters`top issues as discontent with a corrupt and inefficient current system is high.

Failure to give the bill its first reading in parliament last week is being seen by voters as a sign of congress´egotisim and detachment from the rest of the country.

Today, with their pockets bulging, politicians made their way back to parliament to begin work on the bill.

Colombia Politics view

President Santos looks weaker by the day as he loses control of parliament and public opinion. The commander in chief appears to be following rather than leading the agenda.

Public opinion of congress has been low for years. This congress is seen as more inept than the previous group which was plagued by paramilitary scandals.

Colombians unhappy with their representatives have the opportunity to kick them out of power next March. The question is, however, whether a usually apathetic electorate will finally react.

Sadly, corruption and vote-buying will help ensure at least some of the discredited politicians will survive this public outcry.

A high turn out – something uncharacteristic in national or local votes – may help send a message to those at the top. We`re not holding our breath.

Picture, Calinet.

My afternoon with Santos

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The surprisingly svelte (ish) Santos – it´s true that television adds a stone – no, not that Santos, but Francisco “Pacho” Santos, the president´s cousin and would be opponent in next year´s polls, burst into the restaurant in Bogota´s Candelaria 25 minutes late (almost on time in Colombia).

The thin and translucent rimmed John Lennon glasses bounced on his anything but Roman nose. Shorter too than expected, I mused.

Unimposing, and jocular, he apologised for his tardiness. “Transport”, he moaned; the fault of “12 years of appalling government in Bogota”.

Within minutes, he was again on his feet, warning us his subsequent words would “cause controversy”; that he was proposing “real change” for Colombia. We were not about to suffer the tedium of a politician who guards and minces his words, “The Candidate” boasted. Gesticulating wildly, intermittently squashing his glasses back up his rotund face, Santos launched into his vision for a new Republic – a federal, decentralized, and competitive Colombia.

Under his premiership, Bogota would no longer be the ringmaster, but instead set the localities free. The Santos – no, not the JuanMa – presidency would cascade money to the regions, freeing them to compete against each other to provide their citizens with the highest quality public services.

Colombia has the second most difficult and complex geography in the world, according to Santos; what does Bogota know of Anserma, Apartado, or Algeciras, and what has it done to improve the lot of those who live in these “pueblos por allá, lejos”? Good point, I thought.

Santos´ brave new world would see local government able to set its own tax codes and rates, and strip the capitolio of the majority of its functions in education, policing, and health. I found myself nodding. Santos´argument was convincing enough.

The tirade continued. Colombia was a success – to the extent to which Santos thought it wasn´t a failure – “despite, not because of Bogota”. They say the capital is responsible for 30 per cent of the nation´s GDP, but for Pacho the metropolis is synonymous with corrupt and bureaucratically sclerotic officials hellbent on centralizing power. Ouch!

Santos might be a Bogotano himself, but he says he feels more at home travelling to the far flung, the lost and local. A conscious attempt to appear at odds with his cousin, Juan Manuel, the “cocktail and country club” elitist president? Why, of course.

Building us up to a crescendo of criticism, a list of failings of the current system was fired out; each blow at the heart of the current commander in chief delivered with increasing ferocity. Pacho´s hands and arms were now flapping with such abandon that, if energetic extremities alone could sort the nation´s profund and endemic problems, Santos would be ya´ man.

To applause he sat down and began to eat the pumpkin soup slowly cooling. The floor was open to questions.

Come March, Santos hopes to be chosen as ex-president Alvaro Uribe´s candidate for the May presidential elections. He currently leads a pack of four candidates, all more or less unknown by the 15 million voters (well, that`s how many – sticking my thumb in the air – I suspect will vote)  who will decide who walks into the Casa de Nariño on inauguration day next August.

Santos is unquestionably media friendly – he hosted a breakfast radio programme for years – and is a communicator able to whip up support among true believers. He is combative too, unafraid brutally to attack his opponents; a no nonsense, blood and thunder sort of politician.

Will that be enough to win him the candidature first and the presidency second?

As he tucked into his steak (a Colombian restaurant so, with rice, potatoes, yuca and patacones), I told Pacho the Democratic Centre movement – Uribe`s “political party” – had much work to do to convince the nation it offered more than just opposition to the peace process with the FARC.

A protest vote is not enough.

The affable Pacho smiled wryly. He agreed. Wait, he said, in the coming months we will see a real manifesto for government.  I`ll hold you to that, I promised.

Colombia´s ego-driven presidential race

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Colombia´s `presidential election campaign has yet officially to begin but the list of candidates continues to grow as Green Party former Bogotá Mayor, Enrique Peñalosa this month threw his hat in the ring.

But Peñalosa, like three other candidates pitching for the top job –  Conservatives Martha Lucía Ramírez, and José Félix Lafaurie, and Liberal Eduardo Verano de la Rosa – is not even certain of securing the support of his own party.

Bizarre as it seems, many within the Green Party claim not to have heard about Peñalosa´s candidacy before he went public, and odder still is the party´s muted and ambivalent reaction following the announcement.

Are the Greens really a political party?

The Greens appear split from top to toe. And not only over whether to lend their troops to the Peñalosa front.

Former presidential candidate, Antanas Mockus walked out on his old gang at the end of 2011 when the then Bogotá Mayoral candidate, Peñalosa received the backing of Ex President Alvaro Uribe in his ill-fated campaign.

But worse was to follow when the Greens, under the stewardship of Lucho Garzón, then opted to join forces with President Santos in the National Unity Coalition Government, alienating further the Mockus wing who had campaigned against Santos in the 2010 presidential elections.

So what the Greens will do now is anyone´s guess.

Will they leave the coalition? Will they support Peñalosa? Will they disappear as a party?

Perhaps it is largely irrelevant as Peñalosa appears to be making a punt for the Casa de Nariño with or without the electoral clout (which is in any case rather limited) of his party.

Are parties irrelevant in Colombian politics? 

It´s most unfortunate for a politician to announce his campaign before being sure of his colleagues´support. But for there to be four such politicians in the same boat is careless indeed.

Political parties in Colombia risk becoming an irrelevance in an increasingly personalized system.

The parties are subordinating themselves to the whims of their would-be leaders.

Take for example Martha Lucía Ramírez. She is pitching to be the Conservatives´ candidate, but she is really after the support of Alvaro Uribe – and the same is true of Lafaurie, and perhaps even Peñalosa. The support of the Conservatives would be nice, it would secure her more votes, but politically, policy wise is it relevant? Is she, does she believe she is bigger than her party?

Ok, you might argue there is nothing wrong the idea of a coalition of interests or parties. Fair enough, but in this case no word has been mentioned of the politics themselves, no platforms are forthcoming. The candidates are engaged in nothing more edifying than a beauty parade.

And the parties themselves? Like judges on a talent show, perhaps.

Maybe their strategy is to wait until it becomes clear who is most likely to win and then swing behind them in the hope of gaining positions in a future government – even if that person does not represent the true “values” of the party…

Rather worryingly the Conservatives are not even sure whether they will run their own candidate – despite having a couple to choose from if they were minded to do so.

There are those within the grouping that suggest they should stick with the Santos campaign to ensure they continue enjoying the trappings of power…though the Conservatives in reality share little in common with the politics of the president.

Any different with the Uribistas?

Yes, within Uribe´s Centro Democratico movement, we know there WILL be a candidate who receives Uribe´s backing.  We also know that there are a at least three who have a chance of emerging with the CD seal of approval. Francisco, “Pacho” Santos, Vice-President in Uribe´s government and cousin of President Juan Manuel Santos leads the way, but there is plenty of time for this to change.

Uribe could have his pick of Peñalosa, Ramírez and Lafaurie too.

Plenty of leg showing, but very little trouser?

Too many candidates spoil both the broth and the appetite for politics. The public cannot help but to pinch their noses at the alphabet soup of options.

Lack of political organization and party control means Colombians will be excused if they switch off from next year´s elections in record numbers.

The debate, discourse and democracy would be much better served by two or three candidates each with political proposals and party backing. Oh for a two party state?

Popularity contest or solution to Colombia´s housing for the poor?

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On Saturday I read in El Tiempo that the Ministry of Housing tops the polls with the most popular minister in President Santos´cabinet. I’d like to know why? What makes this person the most successful minister, or at least the most popular? Who did they ask when they did the survey? Does anybody know?

All I know about the Ministry of Housing is that it is behind a project to give away for free 100,000 houses all over Colombia. But what was the intention of the creation of this ministry beyond this project?

What is its mission, and what purpose does it serve the nation to have created such ministry?

In the same newspaper I see editorials that ring the alarm for the authorities to prepare for the coming rainy season. They say the State should be taking action, helping to move entire populations who currently live on dangerous or unsuitable lands.

Isn´t this a housing problem? Has the Ministry of Housing taken action? Has this ministry done anything to resolve this? Has it even taken a position?

Someone else will soon be in charge of the ministry now that German Vargas Lleras looks set to leave office for political reasons. I suppose to reap the ground that he has soiled. But what has his legacy been? Why is he so “popular”? Has any long term State Policy been drafted with regards to the issues mentioned above or any others…?  Can anybody help enlighten me a bit?

Correct me if I am wrong: the president created this ministry to assist in their plan of giving free housing to people in diverse parts of the country, and Vargas Lleras has been very diligent in doing so; showing up as the giver of free homes to the poor.

In my mind, this looks very similar to the assisting model of the Bolivarian Revolution, where they don’t teach people how to fish; they give them the fish and just wait for people to remember such “generosity” when election time arrives. Next year is election year in Colombia. Is it a coincidence?

Am I missing something here? I suppose I am because nobody in the media, that I’m aware of, has raised their eyebrows. It must be perfectly legitimate to open up a ministry to give homes away and then walk away with political aspirations having earned a “favorable image”.

In my last article I wrote about the importance of education to help change the culture in the country and make for more accountability and empowerment, so continuing with that idea, I wouldn’t oppose to a plan where in coordination with the Ministry of Education, people were trained on the skills necessary to learn to build homes, and schools and hospitals, maybe through Sena.

The Ministry of Housing would run a study to determine which the better places for human settlements would be and, in coordination with the other institutions that would have a say, help build the new towns in those areas that have been so depressed due to the acuteness of the violence problem.

After all, if they are giving back the land to those who used to possess it, wouldn’t it be only logical to plan the right way to give this people the chance to get back their lives?

So what of the Ministry for Housing? Was it just set up for Vargas Lleras? Will we see a new minister with a new set of promises? Colombia´s housing problems are complex and grave. The new houses are just a start, a drop in the ocean. A long term strategy is required, a strategy that worries less about popularity and more on what´s in the nation´s long term benefit.

Santos en Hatogrande

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Guest piece by Miguel M. Benito

Juan Manuel Santos, sus ministros y sus asesores no saben qué mensajes trasladar a la opinión pública colombiana y, para buscarlos, hace unos días decidieron retirarse a la Hacienda Presidencial Hatogrande.

Porque “el cónclave”, como pretenciosamente se denominó a ese encuentro, fue un intento para estructurar una estrategia de comunicación, identificando logros del gobierno, coordinando la acción del ejecutivo en los próximos meses e insistiendo en la necesidad de que los altos funcionarios no actúen como técnicos cualificados, encerrados en sus despachos y desconocidos por los ciudadanos, sino que lo hagan como lo que son: políticos profesionales, cuyo trabajo exige hacer presencia pública frecuente.

Pero esta reunión lejos de mostrar la fortaleza del gobierno transmite su preocupación y confirma, muchas de las críticas que intentaba desmentir. Que hay problemas en la ejecución de iniciativas -¿tanto cuesta identificar los aciertos que ni dentro del propio ejecutivo los conocen?-, que el nivel de coordinación gubernamental es muy bajo, que hay poca conexión con las regiones y con los gobernadores y que, aunque el presidente ha insistido varias veces en este punto, sigue faltando una estrategia de comunicaciones. Por último, esta revisión general de la estrategia, muestra que el gobierno no tiene la iniciativa política e pugna recuperarla.

Sin embargo, Hatogrande supone, de hecho, un nuevo fracaso del gobierno Santos. Del retiro Santos y su equipo deberían haber vuelto con algún mensaje concreto que presentar a la opinión pública colombiana. No fue así. Se desaprovechó la ocasión de dominar el ciclo informativo durante unos días con anuncios relevantes. Y, sobre todo, el presidente dejó escapar la oportunidad para declarar que buscará la reelección -la única conclusión lógica de una reunión dedicada a identificar logros y diseñar mensajes para defender la gestión del actual gobierno. ¿Por qué detener la rutina del ejecutivo al completo sino es para empezar a construir la plataforma de la reelección?-.

Con retraso J. M. Santos parece haber comprendido que si quiere cuatro años más en la Presidencia de la República necesita encontrar el modo de conectar con los colombianos, porque sus otras cartas (las negociaciones de La Habana con las FARC, el apoyo de los partidos de la unidad nacional y los recursos a disposición de la presidencia) podrían no bastarle si hay una alternativa fuerte. En realidad, la única ventaja clara de Santos sobre sus críticos es que la oposición aún no tiene plataforma ni propuestas ni mensajes movilizadores.

Como apunta Kevin Howlett, nuestro editor estos problemas hablan de una democracia inmadura, en la que ni los partidos políticos, ni el gobierno ni los medios de comunicación saben cómo tratar la existencia de una verdadera oposición al gobierno o la reelección.

Una nota final: mientras el gobierno busca los mensajes y la narrativa que quiere transmitir a los ciudadanos, debería prestar más atención a algunos gestos y a imágenes. En Caracas, durante su asistencia a las exequias de Hugo Chávez, Santos dejó una serie de imágenes negativas para él. Aparecer asociado a gobernantes tan poco recomendables como Raúl Castro, Mahmud Ahmadineyad y Alexander Lukashenko no le ayudan a conseguir el apoyo del electorado de centro-derecha en favor del uribismo. Haber permanecido en un prudente segundo plano hubiera sido mucho mejor para el presidente colombiano.

Pero, hoy, Santos, en Hatogrande, en Caracas o, incluso, en Copenhague, es un político sin mensaje. Y le urge.

 Miguel M. Benito es docente en la Universidad Externado de Colombia. Analista y Consultor político.@mbenlaz

Esta columna fue también publicada en la Revista Posición.

Video – Why President Santos is panicking

Colombia Politics editor Kevin Howlett´s videocast.

He looks at why President Santos is struggling in his re-election bid and what this tells us about the “immaturity” of Colombia´s democracy.

Why does Colombia´s political class not know how to fight elections?

Why is Santos panicking?

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1 in 4 Colombian Governors “under investigation”

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A quarter of Colombia´s governors, elected just over a year ago, face investigation by the nation´s Inspector General it has been revealed.

With three years to go on their mandates, top regional politicians from across the land could face suspension or destitution before their scheduled term is office is up.

Last year, just months into his governorship of the important Valle del Cauca department, Juan Carlos Useche was kicked out and preventing from holding office for the subsequent 12 years. Action has also been taken against the governors of Huila, Chocó and Casanare. The expected confirmation of the permanency of these sanctions will trigger a slew of costly elections in these important departments.

The Inspector General´s  investigations are open against a total of eight sitting governors. At the same time the Attorney General has revealed he is looking into the actions of 15 governors, close to half of the total number.

It is worth noting that not all cases are expected to progress and that history suggests at least a percentage of the denouncements against the governors have been made by what can only be described as sore losers.

But it is not only the governors who face a battle to preserve their reputations. 55 mayors face the same level of legal scrutiny, while four of these local leaders have already been impeached. Add to this the difficult situation in Cartagena where the elected mayor, Campo Elías Terán, has been unable to assume his duties due to illness (and as a result the city has endured three caretaker mayors in 12 months) and it is easy to conclude that something is rotten in Colombia´s municipal politics.

Governance is a problem in Colombia, locally, regionally and nationally. The will and the power of the state to effect the changes both the politicians and the people demand has been limited by geography, criminality and terrorism.

The Santos regime – and all governments – need strong politicians in tiers two and three of the system. A national government can pass laws, but it is in the regions, the cities and the villages that they must be applied. A lack of stability, of poor or corrupt administration will put the break on any reform – however worthy – passed in congress.

Santos is concerned particularly in respect of his land restitution and victims law. He needs desperately to point to successful cases of the law in practice – across the country – as part of his bid to remain in the Casa de Nariño beyond 2014.

So why are Colombia´s local politicians so unfit for purpose? Part of the problem lies in the local party machinery. The weakness of the nation´s political parties and their willingness to plump not for the best man for the job, but for the candidate who compromises best and who stands the best chance of winning limits the scrutiny process necessary for the selection of would be leader.

Party lists are often motley crew, a hodge-podge in whose compilation favour or connection has outweighed talent and conviction.

The answer? More open primaries, perhaps. Greater public involvement in the process. Wishful thinking, maybe but Colombia would be wise not to stick with the status quo.