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An independent analysis by the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimates that about 980,000 people were removed from the United States during President Donald Trump’s second term through July 31, 2026 — a pace that reflects historically elevated enforcement but still falls short of the White House’s repeated campaign pledge to deport one million people per year. The MPI report, released October 22, covers removals from Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025) through July 31, 2026 and is based on publicly available records from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
Reconstructing numbers after a government data pullback
MPI researcher Marc Rosenblum and his team compiled the estimate after the Department of Homeland Security stopped releasing detailed monthly enforcement data in January 2025, ending a practice that had previously provided public transparency. The result is an independent reconstruction of removals using agency records that remain publicly accessible. MPI’s count differs from other figures cited by DHS and White House officials, which have at times ranged from roughly 675,000 to figures above one million; those official tallies often mix formal removals with voluntary departures and self-deportations, categories MPI treats separately, according to reporting by Reuters.
U.S. deportations under Trump top 980,000 in 18 months, majority had no criminal records
C.J. Ciaramella
Border encounters still account for most removals
Despite administration emphasis on interior enforcement, MPI finds that about 69% of deportations in the period studied began with an encounter at or near the southern border. Of that share, roughly 340,000 people were turned around immediately by CBP, while another roughly 340,000 were later processed by ICE after an initial border arrest. That pattern persists even as CBP reported dramatically lower recent apprehension numbers; MPI notes the apparent paradox reflects an enforcement shift away from only recent arrivals toward people who have lived inside the country for months or years.
Interior arrests are rising and reaching long‑settled residents
About 31% of the removals — roughly 300,000 people — resulted from arrests made inside the United States, away from ports of entry. MPI’s data show interior arrests growing from 28% of deportations in fiscal 2025 to 34% in the first half of 2026 and 39% by July 2026. Monthly deportations tied to interior enforcement climbed from about 8,000 in the administration’s first three months to roughly 19,000 between May and July 2026, more than doubling over that interval.
Excluding CBP border returns, MPI reports that roughly 61% of people deported by ICE — about 390,000 individuals — had lived in the United States for at least two years, and approximately 15% (around 90,000 people) had been present for a decade or longer. Interior operations in cities such as Chicago and Minneapolis have put this long‑settled population at the center of public debate, drawing both enforcement supporters and immigrant‑rights critics.
Most deported people had no criminal conviction on record
The MPI findings challenge the administration’s stated focus on the country’s most dangerous individuals. Among deportees who had lived in the U.S. for at least two years, MPI reports that 71% — roughly 280,000 people — had no criminal conviction on record. Among those with ten or more years of U.S. residence, about 61% (approximately 57,000 people) likewise had no criminal history. Across the full MPI tally of 980,000 removals, only about 20% — roughly 190,000 people — had a criminal conviction.
Independent checks align with that pattern: a PolitiFact review published in September 2026 of data compiled by the Deportation Data Project found that at least 51% of people ICE arrested in July 2026 had neither criminal charges nor convictions, the outlet reported. In a nationally televised interview, the administration’s border czar Tom Homan acknowledged that a large share of ICE arrests involve people without criminal records and said, “I think that’s a good percentage.”
Still short of the one‑million‑per‑year benchmark
When organized along fiscal years, MPI estimates deportations totaled about 620,000 in fiscal 2025 and projects roughly 660,000 for fiscal 2026. That pace is about 26% higher than the annual average under President Biden but remains well below the one‑million‑per‑year target the administration publicly set during the 2024 campaign. For historical comparison, MPI notes that the U.S. recorded 1.86 million deportations in fiscal 2000 under President Bill Clinton, a figure that likewise combined formal removals and enforcement returns.
MPI’s report, released October 22, provides a detailed picture of how enforcement priorities and definitions shape public counts of removals and highlights key tradeoffs between border‑facing operations and an expanding interior enforcement effort.
