Predictions 2013, what will happen in Colombia?
Making predictions is a fool’s game. None of us has a crystal ball.
In Colombia, a country as unpredictable and peculiar as the fictional Macondo of One Hundred Years of Solitude, such futurology is destined to fail – perhaps even to land egg on the face.
Nevertheless, as 2013 is almost here, it feels incumbent upon us at least to anticipate what might happen, what we hope and fear may take place, and what we’d like to see.
It’s a bit of fun. Some of these predictions we have on good authority while others are mere punts. Some perhaps are wishful thinking. We’ll leave it up to you to guess which is which.
Please do write to us with your own predictions – the best, and the most bonkers will be published.
Ex President Alvaro Uribe will announce he has formed a list for the senate elections 2014. The list will be packed full of relative unknowns and youngsters. Paloma Valencia will be on this list, as will Federico Hoyos. Expect a press conference in January.
The Government will be forced to accept it has already signed the International Court of Justice’s ruling on San Andres. Foreign Minister Holguin will keep her job as will all top officials in the diplomatic service.
Peace talks will successfully conclude in the autumn. The Marcha Patriotica will reveal its hand and become the official political wing of the demobilized FARC. Candidates for the 2014 will be announced. Uribe will claim the Castro-Chavezization of the country is nigh.
Henrique Capriles will become Venezuela’s President.
Rafael Correa will win the Ecuadorean presidential race by a landslide.
By November President Santos will announce he is to put his name forward for re-election in 2014, and will receive the backing of the Liberal Party and the U Party top dogs.
Leading minister – and possible 2018-2022 presidential candidate – German Vargas Lleras will resign from the cabinet to run for the senate in 2014, heading up a list of pro-Santos candidates. This list will act as a precursor for the re-unification of the Liberal Party.
Bogotá Mayor, Gustavo Petro will personally take to the streets to defend the people against the garbage bag mafia. He will don a high-visibility vest and pick up all rogue and imperialist trash. All will hail the people’s dustman.
The campaign to revoke Petro’s mandate will not gather the signatures necessary to kick the mayor out of office, but will polarize and paralyze the city’s government. Vital decisions on the metro, on the Transmilenio and on education and health investment will be delayed or kicked into the long grass.
Colombia’s economy will record steady growth – but at a slower rate than previous years – between 2.5 and 3% and the new Free Trade Agreement with the EU will kick in. Senator Robledo will attack the FTA, and the FARC/Marcha Patriotica will confirm their election commitment to revoke all such agreements and prevent foreign ownership of land.
Colombia will qualify for the World Cup and Falcao will sign for London’s Tottenham Hotspur Football Club.
A prolonged crisis in the health service will become the political scandal of the year forcing Santos to promise sweeping reform and commit billions of pesos of public money to the issue. Expect this to be a key election battleground in 2014.
Disgraced General Santoyo will – from his US prison cell – reveal the names of top government, police and army officials with links to paramilitaries. Expect some surprises and some big heads to roll.
Proposals to legislate for gay marriage will not pass, but be filibustered out of parliament, as will the plans for euthanasia Senator Benedetti will use this platform to campaign for re-election in 2014.
Following the successful conclusion of the peace talks, New York Times will name Colombia its top tourist destination for 2014, and CNN will name Colombia “Country of the Year”.
This time next year we’ll review how many of these predictions came true, how right or wrong we were and reflect on the stories that made 2013.
We have a feeling 2013 is going to be a pivotal time in Colombian politics as peace negotiations rumble on and as we enter into the febrile pre-election period.
Petro, Uribe, Santos and the FARC will be on our screens most this year.
A happy and prosperous New Year to you all.