3 of 5 Uribista presidential hopefuls with links to paramilitaries?

Outstanding questions over possible links to Colombian right-wing paramilitary groups threaten to derail the campaigns of three of the five 2014 presidential hopefuls loyal to ex-president Alvaro Uribe.

Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, Francisco “Pacho” Santos, and Luis Alfredo Ramos all stand accused of ties to the death-squads that have financed the careers of hundreds of Colombia´s top politicians since the 1980s.

The charges

Salvatore Mancuso, former commander of the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC) commander (now demobilized and extradited to the US), has testified he met Pacho Santos and that the two discussed the formation of a criminal organization to operate in Bogota, called the Bloque Capital. Colombia´s public prosecutor has revealed the case is still in the preliminary stages, and Santos himself strongly refutes the allegations, claiming the testimony of a convicted criminal is scant evidence.

The case against Zuluaga lies in a series of compromising photos with Mancuso financed politicians in his home state of Caldas, and a report by the left-wing think tank Arco Iris showing the 2002 senator was elected alongside Rocio Arias (who was later found guilty of being a Mancuso placeman).

Finally, Ramos is alleged to have worked with paramilitaries in Antioquia – where he was governor – on a programme of “mutual support”. The evidence for this charge is based on a testimonies from a series of now demobilized paramilitary combatants.

Colombia Politics view

Although the (current) evidence against the three would-be presidential candidates would appear to be far from conclusive, it is politically extremely damaging for the Democratic Centre (DC) movement.

The race for the presidency begins in earnest in November when current president, Juan Manuel Santos announces whether he will run for a second term. Nevertheless, candidates are already jockeying for position and Pacho Santos has emerged as the current favourite to lead the opposition to his cousin´s re-election.

Whether or not there is any substance in the claims is largely irrelevant. From a campaigning perspective, they have the potential to deliver a mortal blow to the Uribistas.

Elections are won and lost on perceptions, not on facts. The critical problem for Uribe´s men is that the accusations form part of a growing narrative that sees Uribismo hand in glove with the paramilitaries.

Opponents of Alvaro Uribe´s government have long tried to link the ex-president to the paramilitary movement, some even labelling him responsible for massacres committed by the AUC.

For many, the smoke that surrounds Zuluaga, Ramos, and Santos is real evidence of fire.

From a political communications view, there is another problem for the aspirants. Colombia´s national media is often accused of being in bed with the government of the time – particularly so with the Santos regime where family connections to the largest publications mean objectivity is questioned. Colombia Politics expects to see – between now and the election – a drip drip of stories linking Uribistas to paramilitaries. The news about Pacho, Zuluaga and Ramos is not new, but the media chose this very week – days after the DC announced its election strategy – to re-run the article. Suspicious? Par for the course, I believe.

One of the first rules in politicial campaigning is that you must define the narrative before it defines you. Zuluaga, Santos and Ramos perhaps stand guilty of allowing themselves to be put on the back foot.

Whether or not they have links to paramilitaries, who knows. What really matters is how many Colombians will be able to give them the benefit of the doubt come election time. Uribistas must work fast to build good will or risk being washed away on a wave of negative headlines.

Photo, Colombia Confidencial