Published On: Fri, Oct 26th, 2012

Santos, Uribe head to head, Sunday

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos this Sunday comes face to face with Álvaro Uribe as both men take to the stage at the U Party general assembly.

Parliamentarians, mayors, governors, councillors and activists from across the country will meet to elect the new party president, and also to listen to Santos and his predecessor present opposing views on both the future direction of party, and on the peace process.

Santos was elected president in 2010 as the U Party candidate, while Uribe also governed (for the last four years of his time in office) on the U platform.

Despite officially belonging to the same party, Uribe has emerged as the most vocal politician in opposition to the Santos regime.

The election of the new party chief will define the direction of the movement as we enter the pre-election period. But while is unclear who will receive the baton from outgoing and staunch Uribista U leader, Juan Lozano, it is expected the party will pin its hopes on Santos, and neglect the advances of Uribe.

As Santos prepares for his re-election campaign in 2014 he requires the electoral machinery of the party that brought him to power, and to secure this he can deploy his trump card – the unrivaled powers of patronage enjoyed by the tenant of the Casa de Nariño.

Early summer Uribe announced he would split from the U to establish a new political movement, Puro Centro Democratico, a departure that remains unconfirmed, leaving Uribe effectively in two camps.

Will he stay in the U or will he leave?

According to rumours, Colombia Politics understands that Uribe will use Sunday´s meeting to encourage his supporters to leave the party and join him on a new list for parliamentary elections.

Following a poll showing that over half of the electorate would vote for Uribe´s return to congress, talk has grown this week of an imminent announcement from the ex-president that he will stand for the senate in 2014.

Were Uribe to put his name forward he will as we approach the elections begin to attract current members of the Conservative and U Parties. The knock on effect will lead to at least some disintegration of Santos´ National Unity coalition (which brings together, among others, the three main parties, Con, U and Liberal).

Juan Manuel Santos established the U to support President Uribe´s second mandate in office and brought together a collection of Liberal, and Conservative politicians loyal to the Uribe. Many of these politicians continue to hold a torch for their old boss, and consider their marriage to the Santista government one of convenience.

Colombia Politics expects the U Party assembly will not lead to melt down just yet and the party will finish the weekend with a leader loyal to Santos. Politicians seldom act against their own interests,  and the president is in power.

This dynamic could well shift if Uribe does stand and as the election cycle approaches.

 

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