Peace with the FARC guerrillas must be signed by 22 February to be put to a referendum on 25 October; the day of Colombia’s local and regional elections.
Colombia’s Constitutional Court has ruled that President Santos must present any peace agreement with the Marxist rebels to Congress no later than 24 February, and that the public must be told in advance of this date.
Mr Santos recognises he faces an uphill struggle to secure a referendum turn out above 50%, the threshold required for it to pass into law, and sees October’s elections, when Colombians vote for their governors and mayors, as his best hope of reaching this figure.
Worryingly for Santos, Colombians are reluctant voters at the best of times. This year’s congressional and presidential elections were plagued by record low turn outs and severe voter apathy. Fewer than half of Colombians bothered to cast their vote in what was billed as the most important election in a generation.
The government hopes Colombians will come together and respond positively to the opportunity to end a five decade long conflict. But polls show public support for the peace process is softening, and that scepticism is growing.
For a president who fought his reelection campaign on the single issue of peace, the imperative for a swift conclusion to the talks in Havana could not be clearer; no further major elections are scheduled during the Mr Santos’ remaining time in office.
Some analysts argue the recent Cuba visits by FARC top commander Timochenko, and the addition of new guerrillas to the negotiating table, is evidence that an end is nigh.
But opposition parties point to the fact that agreement has yet to be reached on the most thorny issues, those of transitional justice, disarmament, and victim reparation, as proof that a conclusion is not yet on the horizon.
Either way, things must begin to move, and quickly. Not least because Mr Santos has a major job to do to shore up support for the peace talks; he needs to start to win the battle for hearts and minds.
Unfortunately for the president, his track record as a political salesman is mixed.
February 22 looks ambitious and even were the government to schedule a referendum for the date of the elections, reaching the 50% turn out is not guaranteed. Opponents of the agreement might simply stay at home, pushing down turn out.
Much work remains. Santos must roll up his sleeves.
Photo, Global Post