Supporters of Ex-President Alvaro Uribe are set to form a new political movement in Colombia this 5 July. The inauguration of ‘The Front against Terrorism’, a coalition of ostensibly right-wing political figures, will take place at the famous and exclusive El Nogal club in Bogota.
The group’s formation is a statement of intent – against the Santos government. Is it also Uribe’s route back to power?
The Front against Terrorism is said to be the brainchild of former Justice and Interior Minister and ultra-Uribista, Fernando Londoño (pictured left) who last month was the subject of a failed assassination attempt by the FARC.
Following the attack, Londoño has returned to the public stage. He has vociferously criticised President Santos for what he sees as appeasement of terrorists, and for the betrayal of Uribe’s Democratic Security politics (on which platform Santos was elected). According to the online publication, La Silla Vacia Londoño’s brush with death – that also killed two of his bodyguards and left over 30 Bogotanos injured – was the catalyst that spurred the formation of the group, as a direct challenge to the Santos regime.
Londoño has brought together the Fundacion Centro de Pensamiento Primero Colombia – effectively the think tank for Uribistas, established to promote the politics of the ex-president and to build support for their continued implementation – to direct the policy of the Front against Terrorism.
Spokesmen for the Front have been coy about the electoral intentions of the group, suggesting that, in the short-term at least, it is designed to act as a pressure group rather than an electoral machine. Despite this, the Front represents – for this website – a possible platform from which a Uribista candidate could fight the 2014 presidential election. Indeed it could become the base from which Uribe himself seeks to enter Congress, heading a list of candidates for the senate. Uribe would of course prefer to be president, but cannot, having served two terms in office, seek re-election.
Uribe – an ex-president itching to return.
This website has reported before on the efforts of ex-President Uribe to return to power. The truth is that since leaving office two years ago, Uribe has failed to exit the political stage. He is still adored by sections of the population, and although his government has attracted controversy for alleged corruption, he remains a box-office figure, with every tweet or speech analysed and reported across the media networks. Neither the lime-light nor his appetite for power has dimmed.
What drives Uribe in part is (in his view) President Santos’ betrayal. Uribe delivered Santos the presidential election in 2010. In return Uribe expected Santos to govern as an Uribista. Santos has not returned Uribe’s favour, however, and, not only has he pursued policies that can be seen as directly contradicting Uribe’s philosophy, he has appeared to attack the old regime, uncovering episodes of alleged corruption by officials in the Uribe administration. Santos has governed as his own man, and has not been afraid to tarnish the reputation of his old boss.
Uribe’s attacks on the Santos regime began early in the new president’s mandate. In recent months, these broadsides have been more frequently and violently applied, however. The frustration of the ex-president is clear; not only does Uribe want to repair the damage that he feels Santos has inflicted on his reputation, but he also desperately wants to regain control of the levers of power.
Front against Terrorism – A campaign for Uribe’s return to power.
In recent months the talk has turned to a possible Uribe-supported presidential candidate to fight in 2014 – against Santos (were he to seek re-election). As reported earlier this month, Santos’ Vice-President Angelino Garzon had been touted as one such possible figure. Garzon has ruled himself out, but there remains no shortage of other possible names. For the moment Uribe does not have to reveal his cards. We are still two years away from the election; he can afford to wait up to a year.
But the new movement, which brings together Uribistas under one barrier, is perhaps the official start of a long political campaign to take Uribism back to the Casa de Narino.
The intention of the group, at this stage, is unclear. Although Uribe has ratcheted up his attacks on Santos, he has yet to decide how best to kill off his former apprentice. Uribe had been toying with fighting within the Party of the U – which formed to support his re-election in 2006, and which supported the election of Santos in 2010. The difficulty for Uribe has been that there are sections within the U Party that are loyal to Santos, and others that enjoy the access to power and patronage that being part of the coalition government affords them.
For Uribe to lead a coup against Santos, or to present a candidate to oppose him in 2014, it is becoming clear that he needs to form his own, alternative, political block. Once formed, Uribe hopes to be able to count – as the election nears and the balance of power shifts away from Santos – on members of the U Party, but also members of the Conservative Party loyal to him to coalesce around a Uribista presidential candidate.
The formation of the Front against Terrorism brings this prospect closer.
Uribe came to power in 2002 on the back of a new political movement, he created – Primero Colombia. Uribe drew together a coalition of politicians – and citizens – desperate to take the fight to the FARC. The formation of the Front against Terrorism hints at a repeat of this history.
It is too early to predict the modus operandi of the new Front. It could well be the first in the line of many formations that eventually pieces together Uribe’s 2014 electoral machine, rather than the . In an interview with La Silla Vacia, Jose Obdulio, one of the founders of the movement was clear in denying the group had (immediate) plans to face the electorate. Fernando Alameda who will direct the Front was, however, more equivocal suggesting that is was ‘guess work’ to predict whether the group actively sought representation.
Time will tell…
What is certain, however, is that the Uribistas are gathering their troops. The perceived deterioration in security in Colombia, and the attack on Londoño is their armoury – their evidence that Santos has lost control of the situation, and that his tactic of pursing peace with the FARC is dangerous for the future of the country.
The argument and campaign message is set – it is a repeat of the 2002 line that terrorists cannot be appeased or made peace with, but must be destroyed. The pieces are moving into place. In two years time Uribe could well be taking office as a senator with a new political grouping and a hard-line policy platform.