Friday, 1 June 2012

Angelino - Colombia's curious vice-president

Angelino Garzon is a curious politician: A man of the left in a government of the right; a vice-president who is openly considering running against his boss in the next presidential elections; and a former communist who hopes to get the endorsement of Alvaro Uribe, the most right-wing president in Colombia's recent history. They say that in Colombia, the magical mixes with the real.

After losing his bid to win the presidency of the International Labour Organization, Garzon this week rejoined the political front line. Colombia's President, Juan Manuel Santos now finds his VP emboldened and ready, potentially, to fight him in the presidential elections of 2014.

The immediate danger to the Santos administration is relatively limited. But it is clear that Garzon and those behind him pose a real, long-term threat both to the coalition government, and the type of politics Santos wants to establish in Colombia.

Garzon the inscrutable?

Angelino Garzon is diametrically opposed to President Santos. Santos belongs to the elite, the governing class of Colombia. He is 100% Bogotano, rich, privileged - born to rule. Garzon is an old-fashioned left-winger, a union leader from a small town near Cali, in the south west of the country. Garzon added balance to the Santos ticket in the 2010 presidential elections. He also brought a significant block of votes.

Garzon's politics are interesting. He began life as a member of the Communist Party. After leaving the party he flirted with the guerrilla group, M-19 (the group to which Bogota Mayor, Gustavo Petro used to belong). Despite his trade-union and left-wing background, he served as Labour Minister in the government of Conservative President Andres Pastrana. He even went on to work with the right-wing Uribe government, serving as ambassador to the UN until he was called back to Colombia to join the Santos campaign in 2010.

Angelino is in many ways a unlikely politician. On television he comes across as a friendly but uncharismatic man. He is not a great orator, mumbling rather than projecting his voice. Worse still, he is prone to gaze longingly down at his feet rather than out into the audience. He is not a politician for the television age. In American or European politics he would not survive.  

But Mr Garzon's sheep-like clothing does not disguise completely the wolf within. The Vice-President is an outspoken man with strong convictions. He knows how to play politics behind the scenes, and despite his deficiencies in terms of obvious public appeal, he is respected by figures across the left-right divide.

Since entering the office of the vice-president, Garzon has appeared to cut a lonely figure. It seems clear that his marriage to Santos is one of convenience rather than of ideological alignment. Despite promising to be the President's right hand man, Garzon has been one of his fiercest critics.

From within the administration Garzon has hit out at some of the decisions made and policies pursued. The most polemical was his outburst at colleagues last September for their - in his view - distorted analysis on the level of poverty in Colombia. 'I don't know which country they're living in' he said in reply to the government's new income-based measure of poverty (which happened to move millions out of 'official poverty'). President Santos reacted angrily to Garzon's comments warning him that he would have to 'withdraw from the Government' if he wanted to continue to voice his opposition in public.

In reality, by the end of last year Santos had grown tired of his vice-president. When a vacancy arose for the presidency of the International Labour Organization (ILO), it was the perfect opportunity for Santos to dispatch Angelino overseas.

But this strategy was a highly flawed one. Let's be frank - Angelino Garzon was never going to win the ILO presidency: The international community views very negatively Colombia's human and union rights record; the outgoing ILO president was another Latin America; and Angelino refused to resign his position as vice-president meaning he was unable to dedicate himself full time to the election.

In the end, Angelino won very few votes. The problem for Santos is that his VP, despite losing the ILO presidential race, now finds himself in a more powerful position - domestically - than before. Angelino's profile has been raised and his political capital is high. He must decide what to do with it.

The Garzon Candidate?

Santos is clearly already in re-election mode. Angelino will have to decide whether to stick with his old running mate (if Santos will have him, of course) or whether to go it alone. To cut lose from the Santos administration, he would have to resign early next year to avoid being prevented from standing in 2014 (in Colombia there is a law that prevents politicians from running on two different tickets - the so-called double militancy rule).

If Angelino were to stand, he would need the backing of a popular figure. He alone could not win the election. This is where ex-president Alvaro Uribe comes in.Uribe is agitating for a return to power and in recent weeks has upped the anti, openly talking about establishing an 'official' candidate to run against Santos. This week Uribe has suggested that Angelino could be this man. It is highly surprising that a former Communist could be seen as the choice to carry the banner of Uribism.

If Uribe is making eyes at Angelino, the Vice-President himself is not averting his gaze. Friends of Angelino have taken to the media to claim that a Uribe-backed Angelino candidature is a very real possibility, or certainly one that the VP is not at the moment ruling out.

Politically, this is a crossroads moment. Uribe is now, without question, the leading voice of opposition to the Santos government. The ex-president's star appeal means that virtually whatever he says is published, he is interviewed on all channels and there is almost wall to wall coverage of his movements.

Given Uribe's fierce opposition it would be impossible to see how Angelino could attach himself to the ex-president and remain within Santos' government. That said, were he to resign, would his political capital overnight diminish as his profile vanishes? It is virtually certain that were Angelino to link to Uribe he would very much play second fiddle to the ex-president - both in terms of real power and in terms of profile.

For Santos the developments are an unwelcome distraction. He is clearly being hit by the constant attacks from Uribe - who himself still enjoys support levels in the 60%s in parts of rural Colombia. Uribe's criticisms are starting to stick as the security situation becomes increasingly complicated.

To anticipate how the 2014 campaign will play out, we must take into account how Santos got into power in 2010. Santos was Uribe's candidate - and the majority of his votes were secured through this endorsement. The role of Angelino in attracting more centrist and non-Bogotano votes was also crucial. It looks increasingly likely that these voting blocks will be against rather than for the Santos re-election campaign.

Santos continues to enjoy the support of the biggest party machine, and a president with powers of patronage is difficult to unseat. As magical and unreal as  the curious case of the vice-president who ran against his boss may seem, it could yet become a Colombian reality.


2 comments:

  1. Excellent post ! I finally got to know a lot more of someone that so far had been a bit of a fuzzy shadow character to me. Very informative reading.

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  2. Kevin Howlett4 June 2012 12:04

    Thanks Rudi, glad you found it interesting. I'll be profiling more of Colombia's political characters shortly, and will continue to provide updates on the stories making and shaping the news. I hope you continue to come back to the site and enjoy what you read.

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