Democracy on trial in Venezuela
The polls are open for the 75% of Venezuelans expected to vote today in what has been billed the most important election in decades.
The closeness of the race means victory will depend on who manages better to ´get the vote out´.
In this, President Hugo Chávez has a huge advantage over his rival Henrique Capriles; at his disposal is the power and the financial clout of the president´s office and the apparatus of the state to help mobilize an army of Chavistas determined to re-elect their comandante.
Hugo Chávez is fighting to extend his near 14 year reign for another six years, while Capriles is hoping to put an end to the Bolivarian Revolution.
The polls put the candidates within the margin of error, but in a country where such efforts to gauge voter intention have been historically inaccurate, the only true poll is today.
Until recently Chávez had been expected easily to win, but Capriles has closed the gap and has gone from village to village campaigning to galvanize what is now an enthusiastic base of support, desperate for change.
Capriles´ tactic of trying to win each and every individual vote offers Chavez a taste of his own medicine. The leader employed the same tactic in 1998, but this year is unable to hit the campaign trail with as much vigour, hindered by the effects of his illness.
But despite this tactic Capriles will have to win against all the odds.
Why?
First, the Chávez machine is in part financed by the oil rich coffers of the state, and has been oxygenated by the state controlled media.
Second, the formidable Chavista election machine will swing into full force today – a force with immense power and resource.
The 2012 campaign has been labeled the 1×10 strategy, where committed activists work to secure the names and identification of 10 additional voters. According to El Tiempo newspaper, the party organization then puts on transport and food for the list of ´registered´ supporters, ensuring they are shipped to the polling booths and fed and watered. Many suggest the ´generosity´ of the Chavistas extends to laying on hotel suites for those who need accommodation (for example those living across the border in Colombia).
The PSUV, Chávez´s party uses the language of military operations to refer to its troops of mobilizers – there are ´Patrullas´(patrols) ´Unidades de Batalla Bolivar´ (Bolivarian battle units), and ´Comandos Estatales´ (state commanders).
There is no denying that the Chavista ´get the vote out´ strategy is sophisticated – whether it´s democratic is quite another thing.
The contrast with an opposition that has spent years in the wilderness is great. Before 2012 the opposition was fractured and disparate. Although the parties have united behind Capriles, the machinery is much less well oiled (in all senses) than Chávez´s ´red army´.
And third – Chávez has acted to restrict overseas voters (overwhelmingly sympathetic to the opposition) from participating in the election. Earlier this year, Chávez closed the consulate in Miami where around 20,000 expat Venezuelans – 98% of whom support Capriles – were due to vote.
Elsewhere, rumours are abound that Chávez has cancelled in-bound Caracas flights to prevent expats from returning to cast their vote (many mistrust the embassies and consulates either to record or to include their vote in the final count).
Despite the odds though, there is real optimism in camp Capriles.
Thankfully, for them, the national electoral commission has developed the technology to keep the vote in secret. This is in stark contrast to 2004 when Chávez faced a referendum to revoke his power; following the result, the president was able to trace the votes, and sack any state employees found guilty of voting against him.
In theory, at least, Venezuelans can vote without fearing this threat to their livelihoods.
The country is polarized. There are those equally passionate about re-electing Chávez as there are those itching to kick him out and end the politics of hate, as Capriles supporters have called them.
There are many whose jobs rely on the continuation of the Chávez regime – the revolution has generated additional layers of bureaucracy that help keep the bank balances of the comandante´s supporters healthy.
There are many barrios who feel they have benefited from Chávez´s social programmes, and will not want to risk change.
There are many first time voters who can barely remember life before Chávez. The omnipotence of the leader generates a fear of change, and many will be tempted to stick with the devil they know.
Capriles has been careful to offer change but without veering to the right. Despite what Chávez argues the choice is not between his socialism and an unfettered right winger.
The truth is today democracy is on trial in Venezuela.
After nearly 14 years of authoritarianism and the centralization of powers in the presidency, is difficult for any true democrat to hope for another six years of Chávez.
As the brigades of Chavistas march their voters off to the polls we await the final verdict, due as night falls over Caracas. When Venezuelans awake tomorrow will they respect the result?