Author: Kevin Howlett

About Kevin Howlett

Kevin is a political consultant and lobbyist who cut his teeth working in the UK Parliament. He is a regular panelist on Colombian television, a political communication strategist and a university lecturer. Kevin is the founder and editor of Colombia Politics.

Que pena Colombia you only have yourself to blame

Que pena contigo Colombia, but if only 40% of you bother to turn out to vote how can you complain about the outcome?

Que pena contigo Colombia, but if you insist on voting for the “los mismos de siempre” how can you complain that it is they who govern you?

Que pena contigo Colombia, but if you wring your hands at the corruption and vote for those who stand most accused of this crime…well, you only have yourself to blame. Read more…

A vote for peace not Santos

President Santos has tried all the tricks in the book to make this election about war and peace.

He, his friends in the media, and virtually the entire political class, have told us to vote for the incumbent’s re-election or to face all out war with the FARC.

Mr Santos’ thesis is that only he is capable of delivering peace accords with the Marxist guerrillas; that each of the other four candidates would take Colombians “back to war”. Read more…

Alvaro Uribe president again. What happens then?

uribe santos

The polls are moving away from President Santos quicker than you can say 12 million dollars in narco-money.

Alvaro Uribe looks on course to return to the Casa de Nariño just four years after its doors were closed behind him. Vicariously of course, as Uribe himself is not running for president. But make no mistake, if his candidate, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga does win the election, it will be Mr Uribe who governs, not Zuluaga.

Last night, for the first time, polls showed – by a margin of 8 points – Mr Zuluaga on course to beat incumbent Juan Manuel Santos.

The Santos camp appears to be sleepwalking to defeat. They thought they had it sewn up.

But the momentum is shifting at break neck speed, and the Liberals, Cambio Radical, Greens and anyone else who’d jumped aboard the re-election bandwagon is beginning to panic.

Just a month ago, Mr Zuluaga was an also run. In fact, he was languishing a distant third in the polls. But almost over night he has doubled his voting intention, spending hundreds of thousands on effective publicity, and traversing the nation in a frenzy of campaigning.

At the same time, President Santos has been hit with scandal after scandal after scandal, and his credibility with Colombians is at rock bottom.

Santos can still save himself, and has the media on his side as well the huge state coffers to dig him out of trouble. And yet… momentum is a tricky beast to tame, and Mr Zuluaga now looks a darn good bet for president.

So what will happen if Uribismo returns to power?

Most likely the peace talks with the FARC will collapse almost immediately. The FARC’s animosity towards Uribe means they will try to pull the plug first.

Uribe’s Democratic Centre senators (of which he is the top dog) will try to form a coalition to establish a majority in the upper house. Expect the Conservatives to jump the Santos ship and hop into bed with their old boss (they were always happier under an Uribe presidency).  Expect too, some of those that today are violently opposed to Uribe, to soften their stance and start to cosy up to him.

Uribe will go big on law and order, and declare a war on urban crime. The police will be given new powers and a new cabinet minister for civil order will be created. Expect an ex-army chief to take up the role.

Uribe will join forces with the inspector general to kick Petro out of office for good. Pacho Santos will be the new mayor of Bogota.

The congressional coalition will work to draft constitutional amendments to permit a president to run for a third term – Mr Uribe will be chosen as the Democratic Centre National Unity candidate in 2018. He will win. Within 18 months of taking office Mr Zuluaga will take a back seat; Uribe will morph into Vladimir Putin.

The left will rue a missed opportunity and will complain from day one of persecution and harassment.

Colombia’s media will miraculously change their tune, lending support to the new president and labelling Santos a traitor.

Money will be pumped into education – it’s Zuluaga’s number one campaigning platform – and rural Colombia will receive a bonanza. A representative of the campesino movement will be chosen as a cabinet minister and Uribe will establish a new social contract with the nation’s farmers.

And finally, relations with Venezuela will be broken off again and Colombia’s army will go after the FARC guerrillas in the neighbouring territory. Maduro will sweat, as the US secretly backs Mr Uribe’s campaign.

Uribe back in the presidential palace in August when the new term starts? Yes – unless Santos wakes up from his malaise, and develops some fight. These are strange days indeed.

Uribe, Santos: A plague on both your houses

santos uribe

A sulphuric stench hangs over Colombia’s presidential election race.

There are dirty negative campaigns and then there are Colombia’s politics.

Last week we learnt that narco-scandals go right to the presidential palace. Also that wire-tapping is back; with President Santos’ main rival Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, accused of sabotaging the peace process with the FARC.

Colombians themselves wish a plague on both their houses; who to vote for in this most unedifying mud-slinging match, they ask?

On Thursday, Alvaro Uribe accused Santos of accepting 2 million dollars in narco-money in his winning campaign of 2010. Friday and Santos was suing Uribe, his former boss.

Santos’ top election adviser JJ Rendon has quit his job, and remains under suspicion of receiving 12 million (yes 12 million) in lobbying money from the narco-mafia. Hours after Mr Rendon left his post, the attorney general opened an investigation into a hacker with close links to Mr Zuluaga’s campaign. The hacker is accused of spying on FARC and government negotiators, and even the president himself. The media have found a criollo Eduardo Snowden.

Win at all costs. This seems to be the motto of Uribe and Santos.

All the while, the real problems that face Colombia – the corruption, the urgent reforms to the health, education and justice systems go unmentioned in a campaign where hatred reigns supreme.

Colombians are offered precious little glimpse of the sunlit uplands.

They are fed up.

Just a third of Colombians have a favourable view of their president, and the majority believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Fewer than half will turn out to vote.

Conservative candidate Marta Lucia Ramirez too offers a bleak view of the Santos years. She claims nearly 5 billion dollars is lost annually to corruption – 5 billion!

Ramirez, like the left-leaning senator-elect Claudia Lopez, believes corruption is the most expensive tax Colombians pay. Left and right agree on this, at least.

With peace on the horizon, Colombia is at a delicate crossroads. Perhaps we should not be surprised by the fierce battle to decide which road it takes.

But whoever wins out will need urgently to calm the rhetoric, unite the nation and offer Colombians a new social contract. It is time for the politicians to build a trust they have never really before enjoyed.

Am I optimistic for the future despite this election campaign?

Absolutely! Colombians are more informed than ever before and fewer and fewer are willing to accept the decadence of many in the political class. The time will come when the discontent feeds into organized politics and the traditional parties and families are forced out of their ivory towers.

It looks as though there will be no change come May 25. But whether the house of Santos or of Uribe wins, the end of their time in office has been hastened.

You cannot ignore all of the people all of the time.

Keep FARC leader Timochenko alive for peace?

Colombia has a loose-tongued president.

Yesterday, Juan Manuel Santos told us he knew where FARC commander alias Timochenko is hiding, but claimed he’d “think twice” before ordering a shoot-to-kill.

Mr Santos believes Timochenko is essential to the peace talks in Havana and that removing him would spell an end to the dialogues.

Read more…

Vote for peace, vote for Santos?

santoscampaña

If Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos has his way May’s election will be a referendum on one issue; peace negotiations with the FARC guerrillas.

One of Santos’ campaign slogans is “together for peace”, while his logo reminds me of a dove draped in the LGBT rainbow flag. The “president-candidate” as he is now called, even claimed this week that “changing the captain” at half-time would lead to an untimely and unsuccessful end to the Havana talks. Read more…

“Colombia’s democracy is mortally wounded”; Petro

 

Let there be no doubt; Gustavo Petro was a disastrous mayor. Bogota has gone backwards under his ideological administration. Today, many Bogotanos will allow themselves a sigh of relief as he finally leaves his post.

But for all his faults, Petro was elected fairly and squarely. His mandate came direct from Bogota’s 8 million souls, and his removal from office is an affront to us all. Read more…