Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro is a conspiracy theorist; paranoid Colombia’s right wing is hell-bent on taking his life. Or, he is a cynical leader desperate to hide the economic reality of a country he flounders to govern.

How else to explain the new leader’s series of attacks and threats against Colombia?

In the two months since the disputed outcome of the presidential elections, Maduro has labelled Colombia’s expresident Alvaro Uribe a murderer, and dismissed current president, Juan Manuel Santos a double-crossing liar. The mustachioed commander-in-chief has also insisted Colombian paramilitaries are behind supposed attempts on his life.

A recent visit to Colombia by opposition leader Henrique Capriles, led Maduro to threaten breaking off all diplomatic relations with Bogota, claiming the Santos administration had gone behind his back. President Santos maintained his silence, later revealing that Maduro’s protestations were entirely false; Maduro had known about the visit before it happened.

This week the Maduro regime bizarrely announced the Caprilistas were about to use US bases on Colombian soil to launch sorties of a supposedly newly purchased fleet of 18 combat aircraft.

For the Venezuelan government, Bogota is the centre of operations for a coup in Caracas.

All this takes place against the backdrop of rumours of an imminent devaluation of the Venezuelan currency – the second since the turn of the year. The economy is collapsing; years of anti-business policies are coming home to roost as the perfect storm of the falling oil price coincides with burgeoning debt (which has increased 97 per cent in three years), rampant inflation (6.9 per cent in May alone, which suggests a 100 per cent annual rise, placing it in hyperinflation territory), and food shortages. As the supermarket shelves lay bare, Caracas has even mooted the idea of issuing rationing cards.

Amid the wreckage of the revolution, stands a president whose legitimacy is under the glare of a spotlight even brighter than that which shines suspiciously on his economic record.

Maduro won the elections by a whisker, but stands accused by the opposition of fraud and abuses of power. Not only was the process of the vote, and its count challenged by Capriles, but also was the regime’s response in the days that followed Maduro’s swearing in. In an Orwellian crackdown, opposition politicians were beaten up in parliament by Chavistas, while protesting citizens were threatened, attacked, and thrown in jail.

As homicide rates continue to shock (up 12 per cent last year to almost 22,000 according to official figures), the country appears to be pulling itself apart at the seams.

There is plenty of reason to assume Maduro has an interest in distracting his countrymen. And what better way than creating a false enemy? Authoritarian governments who risk losing control of their slippery grip on power are characterised by resorting to this sort of base politics.

The King is dead, long live the King?

But all this bluff has Chavistas pining for their old comandante: Chavez left Venezuela close to ruin, but at least he knew how to fool most of the people most of the time with an engaging and polemic rhetoric based on an immense charisma.

Maduro is as economically incompetent as his boss, and has none of his charm. Heavy is the head that wears the crown.

In 2006 Maduro was sent as Chavez’s foreign minister to buy the support of other Latin American nations with gifts – free oil or “assistance” for efforts to strengthen the Bolivarian revolution. Maduro then became de facto leader when Chavez left Venezuela last December proclaiming his deputy as his replacement should he not return.

Chavez was, however, not the only king-maker; the Castro brothers knew Nicolas could be moulded to suit. Army favourite and assembly president Diosdado Cabello – now effectively second in line to the throne – on the other hand, represented a threat to Havana’s influence.

But the last few weeks of hot air and vulgar threats from Chavez’s heir, elected in questionable circumstances, amid a deepening polarization of the country, and a sharpening of the financial crisis, has left even his Cuban patrons wondering how long this exotic presidency can continue.

For Colombia, Venezuela’s uncertain future puts a break on trade, hinders efforts to curb narcotrafficking, threatens the peace process with the FARC, and increases the flow of fleeing Caraqueños, and Maracuchos to Bogota. The sad reality is that there appears to be no end in sight to the misery. Venezuela’s pantomime villain president will continue to cry wolf so long as it keeps him in the Miraflores Palace.

Photo, Confidencial Colombia