Uribistas meet to plot election strategy

Colombia´s Ex-President Álvaro Uribe will today convene a group of his closest supporters to plan an assault on the 2014-2018 presidency.

Fresh from a trip to the US to book launch his memoirs – No Lost Cause – Uribe returns to Colombia determined to seize the political initiative ahead of government, FARC peace talks due to start next week.

Colombia Politics understands that Uribe will meet with former vice-pres, Francisco (Pacho) Santos, Juan Lozano (soon-to-be former U Party president), Marta Lucía Ramirez (defence minister under Uribe), Óscar Iván Zuluaga (pre-candidate for Uribismo in the 2014 elections), and Juan Carlos Vélez (de facto spokesman for Uribismo in the Senate).

No agenda for the meeting has been leaked, but it is expected that a platform will be established not only for the elections of 2014, but also beyond, opening the possibility that we may see forthcoming a lists of congressional candidates.

Uribe has indicated that the search is on for a presidential candidate – expected to march under the Puro Centro Democratico banner, the movement set up early summer this year – but has so far been quiet on his strategy for the congressional elections (which take place a few months before the presidential vote).

Following the announcement of peace talks, President Santos´popularity has shot back up, after months in the doldrums, making Uribism´s path to the presidency more complicated, and less likely of success (as we currently stand).

The meeting today is a sign that Uribism is looking beyond the next electoral cycle, hoping to build a base from which to fight the 2018-2022 race, when Santos will have finished his two terms in office.

Alongside the long-term strategy, discussion is also expected to focus on the process for deciding a presidential candidate. Óscar Iván Zuluaga has been the first to throw his hat into the ring and is currently on a tour of the country in an attempt to build support. Zuluaga´s profile remains low, however, and should a more nationally recognisable face enter the race the dynamics will change.

One such possibility is Marta Lucía Ramírez whose profile is relatively high and who benefits from an existing level of public and political backing.

Colombia Politics expects that cards will be held to the chest at least until the peace talks move towards their conclusion, as tactically the eventual candidate will want to avoid being painted as their opponent.

Even Uribe himself  has been quiet in recent weeks, ditching the hyper-active media appearances that have characterised his time since leaving office.  We doubt he will be able to maintain this distance once talks begin, however.