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FARC to trade bullet for ballot box

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Colombia`s Santos administration and FARC guerrillas have unveiled an “historic agreement” on “political participation”.

Today`s announcement hopes to breathe life back into a year long peace process that faces growing scepticism.

The FARC have promised finally after 50 years of conflict to trade the bullet for the ballot box.

We`re now a third of way through the talks, with two of the six points on the agenda being signed off.

Excellent, you might think.

Disappointingly, however, despite the hype, today`s announcement avoids the very issues that cause most controversy, appearing to kick them into the long grass.

The parties do accept it is a “partial agreement”, and consequently declined to provide us today with real detail on what has been signed up to.

For many, the central consideration under “political participation” is whether the FARC top brass will be allowed to stand for election.

Will the FARC be given seats in congress?

And, if so will they be given to Timochenko, Ivan Marquez and the rest?

Without answers to these questions any accord seems largely cosmetic.

Yes, it`s undoubtedly important that agreement has been reached, but it is difficult to avoid the sensation of unfinished business. A year on we yearn for more progress for the really tough decisions to be made.

Photo, El Espectador

Category: Comment, Peace talks
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Colombia`s infrastructure; one of Latin America`s worst

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Colombia’s infrastructure is one of the worst in Latin America, according to the World Economic Forum.

Of the top twelve economies in the region, Colombia has the tenth poorest provision of vital infrastructure; this, despite the promise by President Juan Manuel Santos to make the issue a priority of his administration.

In Santos`first year in office he created the National Infrastructure Agency (ANI) to push through the works identified as catalysts for economic growth.

Last week the president defended his track-record:

“In three years we have invested 22 billion peso ($11.7 million) in infrastructure development. That shows the magnitude of the efforts that we have made,” insisted Santos.

Despite slow progress, the ANI last Wednesday received nine bids as part of the “Fourth Generation” (4G) investment programme.

4G promises much. It is Colombia’s largest ever public investment project, designed to “improve connectivity between the principle centres of production and exportation to make Colombia a more competitive country and overcome the historical drag in transport infrastructure”.

According to the ANI, the project will provide an estimated investment of 44 billion peso ($23.2 million) under a public – private partnership scheme:

“With this initiative, the length of roads throughout the country is expected to nearly double, from 6,000 km to 11,000 km in the next six years.”

Undoubtedly good news if these promises are delivered. Few disagree that the current lack of infrastructure in Colombia is a major threat to the country’s economic competitiveness, domestically as well as internationally.

Colombia needs better roads, railroads, ports and airports. Cities are poorly connected to both internal and external markets, largely because of the extreme topography of the country.

Cutting transport costs is crucial to the country’s manufacturers, especially the coffee farmers, who continue to struggle from significant production costs. Crucially, it is key to overcoming the isolation at the root of the country’s socio-economic inequalities.

According to financial analyst James McKeigue, the 4G investment project should boost the country’s GDP by 1% per year, with a further 0.5% coming from a multiplier effect. The planned works will create approximately 200,000 direct jobs across Colombia, with a further 250,000 indirect ones. Importantly, many of these will be created in the remote areas where jobs are most needed.

But infrastructure improvements will bring security improvements as well as economic benefits.

The Colombian government has never been able successfully to control all of her territory. The majority of the population lives in the country’s largest three cities, Bogota, Medellin and Cali.

Outside of these major areas, a combination of jungles and mountain plains remain largely uninhabited, with limited infrastructure, resulting in a weak state presence in and around surrounding regions.

The resulting economic inequality throughout rural Colombia is severe, in part explaining the conditions which helped spawn criminal organisations known as BACRIM, and guerrilla groups, such as the FARC and ELN.

These groups fight for control of lucrative resources such as oil, gold, marijuana and coca.

Without significant infrastructure development throughout the regions where the conflict rages, the government cannot begin to solve the underlying problems of inequality and lack of development.

Indeed, any peace accord with FARC guerrillas would be vulnerable as illegal armed groups will seek to fill the vacuum left by the rebels in areas lacking state presence.

Photo, Colombia Noticias

Category: Economy, News Review
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FARC peace talks start up again – time for results

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The 16th round of negotiations between the government and FARC guerrillas began Wednesday amidst increasing concern at the pace of the Havana talks.

Both President Santos on one side, and Andres Paris (a FARC negotiator) on the other promised the  delegations will work together to accelerate the process.

12 months have passed since negotiations began, and despite President Juan Manuel Santos’ claim that talks would take “months, not years,” agreement has been reached on only one of six items on the agenda – rural agrarian development.

The second item on the agenda – political participation – is into its fifth month and seventh round of negotiations.

Simultaneous to the slow progress in Havana, FARC related attacks in Colombia have increased.

According to Jane’s Intelligence Weekly “as the FARC seek to enhance their bargaining power at the negotiating table, it is likely to continue its current terrorist campaign until at least the end of 2013”.

Consequently public support for the talks is fading, while rumours of a breakdown in trust between government and terrorist negotiators, combined with the possible suspension of talks are plenty. Furthermore, the November 25 deadline for Santos to announce his candidacy for a second presidential term draws ever closer.

Indeed, Santos on Sunday conceded that progress had been slower than he had hoped for, stating: “I thought that in one year we could have finished the agenda points we agreed upon, but that hasn’t happened”.

The head of state continued, blaming the slow progress on the rebels` attempts to negotiate issues not agreed upon in the general accord for the termination of the armed conflict.

Unsurprisingly however, “Timochenko”, supreme leader of the FARC, accused Santos of playing politics, claiming that he is “seized with the need to show results to justify his reelection” and that he has consequently “intensified his smear campaign”.

The truth is, Santos does need results to justify a re-election campaign. Following nationwide multi sector strikes in August, the head of state’s approval rating dropped to as low as 21%. Results at the peace table are a must for his chances at occupying the Casa de Narino for a further four years. The next month is could decide his fate.

Photo, Colombia Confidencial

Category: Comment, Peace talks
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FARC peace talks a year on; no end in sight

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Twelve long months have passed since the Colombian government and FARC guerrillas met in Oslo to announce the start of peace talks to end 50 years of conflict.

Colombia Politics heralded President Santos` bold move, and we were optimistic of a swift conclusion. Things have not gone according to plan, however. Agreement has been reached on the point of agrarian reform yes, but precious little progress is obvious on the arguably more fundamental issues of political participation, narcotrafficking, victims, justice or disarmament.

Latin America`s longest running rebel/terrorist group shows little sign of demobilizing any time soon.

As a publication we remain hopeful of a positive outcome, but questions remain about whether the FARC are committed to the talks and whether President Santos has the leadership skills to deliver the peace all Colombians want but which an increasing number are sceptical will ever arrive.

The questions are greater in number and the reasons to despair more obvious than the signs of progress:

When will the FARC show remorse for their crimes? Without reparation, building a lasting peace is impossible. The FARC continue to argue they are the victims; this is an affront to those displaced, killed, or terrorized over the past 50 years.

When will the FARC release hostages and stop the practice of kidnaping? Despite telling us “economic retention” as the guerrillas euphemistically call it was now off the menu, FARC combatants have continued to capture police, soldiers and civilians. Let us not forget Kevin Scott the retired US soldier, held hostage since July.

And when will the FARC cease to recruit the children of Meta, Guaviare, Putumayo, Caquetá, Arauca y Vaupés? Government figures reveal hundreds have been stolen from their families since the talks began.

Talk has grown in the past weeks of a possible suspension of the talks during the pre-election period. Rumours abound of discord in Havana, of a breakdown in trust between the FARC and government negotiators.

Yes, the majority of Colombians still believe in the talks, but support and hope are falling.

Doubt too remains on President Santos` leadership, the man who must eventually secure a yes vote when the accords are put to a referendum.

Around 70 per cent of Colombians have lost faith in their president. Will he be able to sell an agreement that will be difficult for Colombians to stomach?

It will take a strong leader to convince victims to accommodate the sight of guerrillas walking free, or celebrating election victories.

South Africa`s peace was dependent on Mandela`s unique ability to bring together a nation torn apart by hatred and racism. Moving on will be as hard for Colombians as it was for South Africans.

Until now, Juan Manuel Santos has shown none of Mandela`s qualities. He must quickly find them.

Photo, Reuters

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Rural Colombia takes to streets; Santos threatens crackdown

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Colombia`s farmers, miners, and truckers hope to bring the country to a standstill tomorrow as a national strike begins amid government warnings of a crackdown on protesters.

Interior Minister Fernando Carrillo, has threatened jail for those who cause civil disorder, while President Santos has deployed elite police troops along key transport routes promising hardline treatment should road blocks take hold.

The government is eager to avoid a repeat of February`s coffee growers strike which paralyzed the country for nearly two weeks as key public highways were closed to all traffic.

Organizers have been quick to reply that this time they are not planning blockades, but instead a series of “go-slow” marches. The Casa de Nariño though, is concerned the situation will escalate and is determined not be to be caught on the back foot as it was earlier in the year.

Meanwhile, Santos has made clear he will not negotiate while strikes are ongoing; a statement lampooned by Dignidad Cafetero and other organizers who point out the president has known the date of the protest for over a month and has refused to enter into talks throughout that period.

What will happen?

It is unclear how events will unfold tomorrow. Predicting the outcome would be foolish, but the scenario is set for a potentially lengthy stand-off between the government and rural Colombia.

Colombia Politics has spoken to a variety of sources close to the coffee farmers who express real anger at what they see as a series of broken government promises. They confirm the fear that events will turn violent given the government`s tough talking. Farming communities are said to be at breaking point and some have spoken of a perfect storm, with the infiltration of FARC guerrillas in certain areas. A violent outcome is not, however, a foregone conclusion.

When I reported from the front line of the February protests I was struck by the friendly, and familial – even carnival – feel. Those I met were humble folk, in many cases desperate for the government to take notice of their plight. The hope is this community spirit sustains.

Who is set to go on strike?

As early as June serious talk grew of coffee growers returning to the streets. Farmers complain of undelivered subsidies, falling (and manipulated) prices, and of no change in a coffee federation that acts against their interests.

This time however, the strike is not restricted to those who cultivate Colombia´s emblematic crop, but brings together the majority of the nation’s rural economy.

On July 4  “Paperos” potato farmers, “lecheros” milk famers, “paneleros” panela famers, “camioneros” truckers, “arroceros” rice farmers, and others met in Armenia to agree to join the marches.

In the capital Bogotá, education and health workers will also march on the “capitolio”, the country´s political epicentre.

Political cost for Santos

Tomorrow`s protests arrive on the back of civil unrest in the poor and isolated region of El Catatumbo. President Santos was heavily criticized for a slow and inadequate response to a peasants`revolt that raged for six weeks without end. Critics draw comparisons to the February coffee strike which the Santos administration was also said to have badly mishandled.

Santos`popularity took a noise dive after these protests and has yet to recover. The commander-in-chief cannot afford to lose control of the situation tomorrow as to do so would surely hammer a nail in the coffin of his re-election chances.

A leader who is seen to have lost the majority of rural Colombia, a leader who is seen as weak and unable to resolve internal crises is not a leader who will win an election.

If the strike turns violent, or is prolonged, if the government is unable to remain in control of events President Santos`fall in support could well become irreversible.

It is little surprise, then that the Casa de Nariño is preparing for the worst, sending over 16,000 police to patrol the likely pinch points on Colombia`s transport infrastructure.

The war of words has already begun.

We expect the media to present the multitude of strikers as disparate and divided, of being infiltrated by the FARC and of promoting violence. How true this line is we will have to wait and see.

Last time the nation was brought to a standstill the Colombian media – with the possible exception of Caracol – failed to report from behind the blockades. The voices of the coffee farmers were virtually silenced.

The success or otherwise of those that take to the streets tomorrow will depend in part on how agile they are in communicating their case through a media often disinclined to give them a fair hearing.

Category: Comment
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3 years with Colombia`s President Juan Manuel Santos

Colombia's President Juan Manuel Santos

Colombia´s President, Juan Manuel Santos celebrates his third anniversary in the Casa de Nariño amid increasing scepticism of his government´s flagship peace talks with the FARC guerrillas, plummeting popularity, and growing pessimism on the economy.

Just a third of Colombians support the idea of Santos´possible re-election next year, while 60 per cent oppose it outright. Support for the talks in Havana is also trending downwards; nearly 70% were behind the negotiations as recently as March, while polls this week show the figure dropping to 59%.  Worse still, the influential IPSOS “Colombia Opina” (quarterly national navel-gazer) shows 62% of Colombians believe the country is on the “wrong path”.

All this is a far cry from the halcyon days of Santos´ first twelve months in power when he basked in the glory of approval ratings in the 80s, the economy was booming, and the president was the darling of the international community; Time Magazine even devoted its front cover to “The Colombian Comeback” under Santos´ stewardship.

So what has gone wrong? Is this to be expected three years into a government?

Things are not as bad as Santos´opponents would seek to paint. Although the majority don´t back his re-election, 49% of Colombians still have a positive view of the president. Sure, he´s far less popular than Uribe who left office with support in the 70s, but in a country where the executive has such bureaucratic clout (and capacity to mobilize troops), 50% broad acceptance from voters is a strong base from which to win elections.

So if there is reason to take solace in the current figures, there should be no reason for complacency. There is much to applaud in Santos´time in office, but there is much to improve on, and much left undone.

The good

Despite rough economic winds internationally, growth has remained strong (plus 4%) and inflation has kept low. Foreign investment has been down in recent months, but Colombia is recording year on year record-breaking levels of FDI. How this translates into the pockets of ordinary Colombians is another thing, of course.

Colombia´s place on the world stage continues to improve. Free-trade agreements with the US and the EU have been signed sealed and delivered, and new economic blocs like the Pacific Alliance (with Chile, Peru, and Mexico) have begun. Colombia remains the US´top ally in the region but without alienating itself from his radically left-wing neighbours. Even the OECD has come knocking at Colombia´s door.

The armed forces have delivered a series of historic strikes against the FARC guerrillas during the past three years, taking out the military chief Mono Jojoy and the supreme leader Alfonso Cano under Santos´watch.

Santos´social policy (at least on paper) looks to be moving the gap between rich and poor in the right direction. Colombia is one of the most unequal nations on earth, but official figures at least show positive news in this area. Unemployment has fallen and hovers around 10%, two million jobs have been created, and 1,700,000 Colombians have been lifted out of poverty. The government is also handing over 100,000 new houses for the poorest. We are far from Santos`slogan “Prosperity for all” becoming a reality, but steps are being made.

Yet Santos´crowning achievement – even if it all ends in tears – must be his bold move to enter into peace talks with the FARC. Effectively he is betting his presidency, his place in history on securing an end to the 50 years of conflict that has ravished Colombia. He faces interests on both sides, but has brought together an international coalition and established a rigorous process and agenda for reaching an accord with the nation´s largest terrorist organization to demobilize. He must be applauded for this.

The bad

Where to start? It is the nature of government that there is more to criticize than to applaud. There will always be promises unmet, or broken, crises unanticipated and moments of total incompetence. But there are certain features of Santos`administration that do require castigation.

Security – perception or otherwise, Colombians complain that their cities are less safe than three years ago. Despite being in peace talks, the FARC’s attacks haven´t relented, and the neo-paramilitary BACRIM groups and others have made this year the worst for murders of human rights workers.  In the cities, the paseo millionario is on the up, with Bogota alone seeing 200 victims in the last two and a half years.

Infrastructure – 40 billion has been promised for major infrastructure works. A new vetting office has been set up with a bureaucratic budget and the order to start handing out contracts has been received. But despite Santos’ fine words about building a modern and connected Colombia, despite throwing heaps of cash at the problem, all we have to show for the hard work so far is an extra layer of bureaucracy. NOT A SINGLE project has started.

Corruption – Santos has created new government positions, corruption czars have come and gone, and he has talked big on cleaning the country up. What has changed? Has Colombia started to kick out corruption? No. Transparancy International´s 2013 Corruption Index was damning:

“The new institutional reforms promoted by the government of President Santos—the new Anti-corruption Act of 2011, and the creation of a new Anti-corruption office in the Presidency—have not contributed to curbing corruption. To the contrary, in Transparency International´s 2012 Corruption Perception Index, the country received the worse score in ten years, going from 57 in 2002 to 94 in 2012.”

Bureaucracy, centralization and elitism

Colombians accuse their president of promising the world and delivering precious little.

Santos heralded the first two years of his government as the most reforming on record. Perhaps they were, and God knows, Colombia needs real institutional change so we should welcome this, yes?

Absolutely, but there is a difference between making a law and making that law work. Colombia is a country of “mucha norma poco contenido”. There´s a law for everything but there is a real disconnect between the law makers in the capitolio and those in the regions and localities that have to implement these paper reforms.

Roy Barreras, outgoing Senate President spoke glowingly in July of 2012-2013 as the Congress`most succesful year ever. What was his justification? That it had passed a record number of new laws. Frankly Roy, that is not something to be proud of. More laws means more centralization less flexibility and greater bureaucracy. Exactly the reverse of what Colombia needs.

President Juan Manuel Santos was born into one of the richest families in Colombia, a silver spoon in his mouth and media empire to inherit. The presidency was his before he was out of short trousers. The first ever election Santos faced was that to become president. It was handed to him on a plate.

This elitism shows and in a strongly regionalized nation, this just doesn´t work.

The Santos administration feels too Bogotano, too posh, too out of touch and too restricted to the traditional political class.

Santos has floundered when he has ventured outside the confines of the capital (unless he is on a diplomatic mission to another country where he feels instantly at home). The coffee protests earlier this year were handled so poorly that the whole agriculture industry is threatening to go on strike next week. And peasant farmer protests in Catatumbo lasted nearly two months before Santos could put out the flames.

We also saw this lack of comprehension from those at the top in the reaction to the decision by the international court of justice to hand over to Nicaragua, Colombia`s San Andres maritime territory. We are waiting a year and the foreign ministry is yet to make a decision on what to do. All the while the livelihoods of the fishermen on the archipelago are being compromised. Bogota appears to have forgotten about the islands its politicians visit only on holiday.

So, what of Santos` overall performance? 

Colombia Politics finds the Santos regime frustrating. The past three years have, contrary to detractors, not been an unmitigated failure. There is much to cheer in the way Colombia is emerging on the world stage, and Santos himself has proven a shrewd diplomat when dealing with his noisy neighbours. If the peace talks end well, Santos`place in history is secured, and rightly so.

But away from the headlines, away from the eye-catching announcements, there is a  real sense that more could and should be done. How much is this Santos` fault and how much is it the result of less than stellar ministers and bureaucrats?

What´s clear is the Colombian state remains inefficient, corrupted and often incompetent. Santos cannot take all the blame for this.

Our view is that with a good team surrounding him, with competent and public facing ministers, the Santos administration would score highly for its first three years in power. Without that team Santos will continue to flatter to deceive over the next year and into a possible second term.

Photo, EFE.

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Colombia´s FARC peace talks on rocks? Don´t panic yet

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Talk that peace negotiations between the Colombian government and FARC guerrillas are doomed is premature.

Sure, Colombia’s largest guerrilla group are doing their best to convince us they are not serious about the peace process. This week, the terrorist organization murdered 15 soldiers in an ambush close to the Venezuelan border, and yesterday they promised to send reinforcements, troops and arms to the front line of the protests in troubled Catatumbo, Norte de Santander.

Yes, the FARC are making it easy for former president Alvaro Uribe´s Democratic Centre to argue the talks are a farce, all smoke and mirrors. Would-be presidential candidate Francisco “Pacho” Santos, has used the FARC´s promise to fight in Catatumbo as a pretext to call for a suspension of the discussions. He argues the guerrillas have no intention of signing a peace accord, that they are having us on, and the plug should be pulled.

And ok, I accept it is hardly a source of good cheer that nine months from the start of the talks, we’re limping along with agreement reached on just one of the five points on the agenda.

But despite all this, I don’t accept the premise that we might as well pack up and go home. The course of lasting peace never did run smooth, and in a conflict as bloody and interminable as Colombia’s, finding a way out is a devil’s job.

Last night I took to the television studios to argue against the grain, to put the case that perversely, quite apart from being evidence that the peace talks were a dead duck, the FARC´s recent actions, the attacks and the full frontal with the government, could in fact be real evidence of their committment to the talks.

I’m quite aware it sounds bold, but if we look at the dynamics of any negotiation we can start to see where I’m coming from.

Negotiations are a power struggle where each actor must seek to strengthen his hand at the table.

Remember, we were told the FARC arrived in Havana totally demoralised, exhausted, defeated…on its last legs. Meanwhile, the government bright‐eyed and bushy‐tailed talked victoriously of signing an agreement within months.

Well, that was sadly not true – the FARC had not been defeated. They still have thousands in their ranks, and have an almost endless supply of youngsters to ‘forcibly recruit’ – or kidnap, if the euphemism isn’t to your taste. Not to mention the oodles of dosh that comes their way through narco trading.

Many Colombians, quite rightly given what the government had told them, did not really want a negotiated peace process, what they wanted was a rendition. Tired of close on 50 years of pointless conflict, Colombians wanted the FARC to lay down their arms and give up the fight. This was never going to happen.

So if the FARC are not about to capitulate, it shouldn´t surprise us if they use all the tricks available to secure an agreement that works best for them. That folks, is the nature of negotiation.

I see the events of recent days in this context, as evidence not that the FARC are throwing in the towel on the talks, but that they are exploiting external forces to improve their position in Havana.  The FARC want us to believe that, as they are very much alive and kicking, we are going to have to pay a higher price for peace than once we bargained for.

So, however distasteful it might be, it is logical – not illogical as many suggest – that the FARC should pursue their peace goals in Havana by warring at home.

Unfortunately, the FARC are also able to take advantage of a struggling government. Santos ‘ team has failed to end the protests in Catatumbo and the president must now face a month of unrest as miners, coffee farmers, milk farmers, rice farmers, and truck drivers join forces to bring the country to a standstill.

By November, the president must announce whether he will run for re-election next year. By September he might have already lost the race to a nationwide rural uprising.

The FARC scent blood.

I also believe the FARC are not just preparing their hand at the table, they are also planning for what happens after the agreement is signed – another clue that they are serious about these talks.

It looks to me as though the FARC are massing their political troops, projecting forward to a time when they´ll fight at the ballot box, not on the battle field.

Look for a minute at the groups the FARC are proposing to help in Catatumbo. They are peasant farmers, those virtually abandoned by the state over decades. The FARC have always claimed to stand up for and represent “el pueblo”, the people – the lowly, but most of all, the rural. It does not take a genius to see they will seek to mobilise these groups when elections swing into view. And yes, the terrain is being prepared with Piedad Cordoba´s Patriotic March.

What luck for the FARC.

The election message has been handed to them on a plate – “Colombia’s rural poor is in open rebellion against the urban elite of Santos’ oligarchical government “. It´s “us” against “them”.

Maybe I am over optimistic but I hope I sense a hint of a sign the FARC could make a transition from the “people ‘s army” to the “people’s party”. Yes, I know they are nothing of the sort, but this is their world view, not mine.

The FARC top team are no fools, they know how to play the game, and they know how to squeeze as much out of their position as possible.

I might be wrong, these peace talks may yet end in acrimomy. But there is no reason yet to panic.

Negotiating peace while war rages is far from ideal, but what is the alternative?

Pack up? Go home? No chance. Keep going President Santos, we all want to live that dream of a Colombia in peace.

This article was written by the editor for Colombia Reports.

Category: Comment, Peace talks
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The Robber of Memories, book review

If Colombia is a land with no memory as Gabriela Dale argued on Colombia Politics last week, then it is the perfect setting for Michael Jacobs´ meditation on the power of human recall.

The Robber of Memories is a spell-binding journey to the source of the majestic Magdalena river that takes us through the land of García Márquez, into the paramilitary strongholds of the Magdelena Medio and finally up deep into the mountainous FARC-held territories of Huila, near San Agustin. Read more…

Category: Book reviews, Comment