Video – Why President Santos is panicking
Colombia Politics editor Kevin Howlett´s videocast.
He looks at why President Santos is struggling in his re-election bid and what this tells us about the “immaturity” of Colombia´s democracy.
Why does Colombia´s political class not know how to fight elections?
Why is Santos panicking?
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Email: kevinhowlett@www.colombia-politics.com
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Kevin, few comments I would like to make.
First of all, I very much enjoy your website. Though quite often i feel I have diverging opinions from yours, I’m taking away a lot from it on how politics in Colombia work. So keep up the good work !
Still with respect to this particular video, I find it raises almost as many question marks as it answers questions one may have:
1. Why speak about a panicking Santos when the man has not even announced yet whether or not he will run for re-election ? You did an article on it yourself, stating he will announce his intentions around summer. Now, I think I take the same assumption as you, that is, that he WILL run for re-election, but as of yet, it is not a fact, so why running this topic on a potential non-candidate ?
2. I also lack the elements on which you base yourself to conclude that he IS panicking ? I assume his recent call to the Colombian people to refrain from all those large-scale strikes could be one of those elements, but you’re not naming them.
3. Panick intrinsically presumes a threat, so I would conclude that there is already a heavyweight opponent who has gone full throttle on a campaign, but I don’t see it. And Santos has one other big advantage: he was more or less hand picked as successor by Uribe himself. No challenger, if Santos runs himself, will be able to profit from such an advantage. So with one full year to go till the elections, why the panic, I wonder, and where do you see it ?
So, some caveats to be filled, I believe
Rudi, thanks for getting in touch, and I´m glad you enjoy the website.
You´re right it does raise questions, and I´m glad you put them down in words – they´re good point.
We´re a long way out from the election, but many politicians are already campaigning.
Why should Santos panic? I quite agree – he has the full force and reach of the state budget, he is not facing a strong candidate (yet). He should be in prime position. But…, and I guess thiss part of my point…it´s a real sign of the lack of experience the government has in running campaigns that it´s appearing to flounder even when it holds virtually all the cards.
Imagine if a strong contender were to emerge, a candidate that united the Uribistas and the Conservatives. Then the panic would REALLY kick in.
Personally I think Santos has a strong message to communicate, but he has been unable to do so. He´s been through a series of relaunches and image changes in the last year, but his advisers have been unable to give him the strategy he needs.
Will Santos run? Should we treat him as a candidate? I think we should see it as almost inevitable that he will run (almost), and given his comments last week about being a president until the peace is achieved (note, not until a peace agreement is signed, but until peace is made) he has already announced himself as a candidate without announcing it.
Thanks for the suggestion to set out more clearly what are the signs of Santos´ panic. I´ll attempt to do so in forthcoming articles. Best wishes, and thanks for joinging in the debate!
Kevin