The holy trinity. That’s what Colombia’s President Santos is promising in his second four year term.
Peace, equality (or more precisely, equity) and education; the three pillars of the new administration.
Any businessman will tell you to under promise and over deliver. Not a lesson Mr Santos appears to understand. He breathlessly urges, “together, for a new country”.
So will the new image help to turn Colombians’ scepticism of their government?
I doubt it. Mr Santos’ first term was characterised by hyperbole. Critics highlight that precious few of his “historic” announcements and “record-breaking” achievements materialised.
The more unfair observers likened Mr Santos to an Alice in Wonderland figure.
I can’t help thinking that JMSantos has again fallen into this trap. He promises that by 2020 Colombia will be the “most educated” country in Latin America. His problem is that currently she languishes near the bottom of most international measures of education attainment.
Perhaps peace looks more achievable? Well, Santos will no doubt deliver an agreement with the FARC guerrillas. For that he will deserve major credit. But this alone will not ensure Colombia is a nation at peace come 2018. For a period of time, post conflict will be in some ways more difficult and may seem less peaceful than war. FARC splinter groups will appear, while the countless other violent actors, the paramilitaries and narcotraffickers, seem unlikely to hold a truce just because the guerrillas have demobilised.
And what of equality? Colombia remains one of the most unequal nations on earth. Around 50% of the nation is classified as poor. Yes it’s true that Santos’ government has taken many families out of “extreme poverty”, and has created economic opportunities for hundreds of thousands in his first four years in power. But take a trip to Buenaventura, to Tumaco, to Quibdo or to the Guajira and you will see a nation several worlds away from the relative modernity of Bogota.
Large swathes of Colombia remain forgotten by the state. Building the new country that Santos talks of is a generation’s work, not that of a two term president.
You cannot fault the ambition in Santos’ words. But the reality doesn’t match it. Look at government spending, for example. The finance minister is struggling to fill a huge black hole in the budget as a result of much lower than expected tax revenue.
The Santos regime cannot make the ends of government meet. And that is for a budget costed before any of the promises made by Santos II were known.
Santos was unable to fund the modest change of his first term. As the oil price drops and the global economy grinds to a halt again, he may find the next four years even tougher.
No matter. The decision has been made. The new slogan was rolled out this week across the ministries; all Government publicity must tie into these three themes.
2010-14’s “Prosperidad para todos” (prosperity for all) has bitten the dust. And with disappointing progress made towards achieving that.
