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Nearly 14 million homes owned by baby boomers and members of the Silent Generation are likely to be released to the U.S. housing market between 2026 and 2036, but that wave is expected to reshape the supply mix more than it will immediately help first-time buyers, according to a new analysis by Realtor.com.
Realtor.com estimates 13.9 million homes currently occupied by older households will become available over the next decade — an increase of about 33.7% (3.5 million homes) compared with the prior decade’s pace and a 74% rise (5.9 million homes) relative to what those generations handed off in the last ten years.
Starter homes: few directly released
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The report finds the direct boost to starter-home supply (defined as homes with two or fewer bedrooms) will be modest because older owners are more likely to retain those properties. Realtor.com projects just 0.38 million starter homes will be released over the next decade — an annualized rate of about 38,000 per year, which it says would represent roughly 3.2% of starter-home listings in 2026.
“The direct impact on first-time buyers of starter homes will likely be limited, because relatively few of these homes will be released onto the market,” Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu, the author of the analysis, told FOX Business. Xu added there is an indirect pathway: “There is, however, a second indirect mechanism: when existing starter homeowners trade up to family-sized or large homes, their starter homes become available, which could add to starter home supply. Because this channel works indirectly, it will take time to materialize.”
Family and large homes likely to see bigger shifts
Where the report expects the most immediate change is among family homes (three- to four-bedroom properties) and larger houses. Realtor.com projects about 9.9 million family homes will be released over the next 10 years — roughly 1 million per year — amounting to about 24.7% of recent listings in that category. For large homes, the analysis estimates an average release of 360,000 units per year, which it says would equal about 67.2% of recent listings; the report notes that if only half of that supply actually reaches the market (33.6%), it would still represent the largest relative increase among the segments studied.
Those differences reflect projected 10-year retention rates by generation: 70.7% for starter homes, compared with 61.2% for family homes and 63.6% for large homes, meaning older owners are more likely to keep smaller units than larger ones.
What it could mean for prices and buyers
Realtor.com warns the succession is likely to weigh more on prices for family and large homes, where the volume of units released and slower household growth on the demand side could produce “real price softness” over time. Xu said that for buyers aiming to move up from a starter home, “the timing may actually work in their favor. These two segments are expected to see a notable supply boost of all three we studied, more inventory, more negotiating power, and likely some price relief as this plays out over the next decade.”
But because the increase in starter-home listings is expected to be small and because the mechanism that frees up those starter units depends on existing homeowners choosing to trade up, any meaningful increase in entry-level supply could take years to materialize, the report indicates.
The findings and quotes above are based on Realtor.com’s analysis and comments from Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu, as reported by FOX Business.
