The U.S. national debt continues to climb rapidly and shows little sign of slowing, reaching $40,301,480,531,899.60 as of Oct. 13, the Treasury Department reported. That figure represented a modest decline of roughly $4 billion from the previous day but underlines a longer-term upward trend that many economists and rating agencies say poses growing risks to the government’s fiscal outlook.
Interest payments on the debt have risen sharply and, according to reporting in the source material, now exceed the combined costs of Medicare and the defense budget. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns that several forces will drive the debt higher in coming years: an aging population, rising federal health-care costs and the compound effect of higher interest rates. The CBO’s recent estimates indicate the national debt could reach roughly $54 trillion over the next decade.
The CBO analysis also projects that servicing the debt will consume a larger share of the federal budget over time. Its 2025 long-term budget outlook, cited in the source material, projects federal spending on interest will rise from about 3.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal 2024 to about 5.3% of GDP by 2054. Moody’s Ratings has similarly warned that interest payments as a share of federal revenue are projected to climb from 9% to about 30% by 2035.
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Policymakers are already responding to and debating the fiscal implications of recent legislation and budget choices. The source material reports that the CBO estimates President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act would add about $3.4 trillion to budget deficits over the next decade; the president’s team has argued that tariffs and faster economic growth would offset some of that impact. The material also cites the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), which notes that by September 2022 President Joe Biden had approved roughly $4.8 trillion in additional borrowing since taking office, including pandemic relief and infrastructure spending.
Rating agencies and budget experts have sounded alarms about the trajectory. Fitch Ratings issued a surprise one-notch downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit score in mid-2023, removing the AAA rating and citing concerns about deteriorating finances and political divisions that could hamper efforts to rein in debt. In May, Moody’s became the third major ratings firm to lower the U.S. rating from its highest tier, the source material reports.
Advocates for deficit reduction framed the numbers starkly. Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, is quoted as saying, “America’s fiscal outlook is more dangerous and daunting than ever, threatening our economy and the next generation.” Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida, told FOX Business, “You can’t just spend trillions of dollars more than you have in revenue every year and expect no ill consequences.” Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said, “We need to do better.”
Observers note that large and persistent deficits can crowd out other federal priorities. The Peter G. Peterson Foundation is cited as saying a larger national debt and rising interest costs can squeeze spending for education, research and development, and infrastructure — areas supporters argue are important for long-term economic growth.
The rapid growth in nominal debt also reflects the long arc of federal borrowing: the source material contrasts the current total with a national debt of roughly $907 billion about four decades ago and highlights the historic spikes in deficits tied to the pandemic, when fiscal year 2020’s deficit reached about $3.1 trillion.
Public sentiment appears to be shifting: a 2023 Pew Research Center survey cited in the source material found 57% of Americans said reducing the budget deficit should be a top priority for the president and Congress, up from 45% the previous year. Whether that political pressure will translate into policy changes capable of altering the CBO’s projected path for the debt remains a central question for lawmakers and markets alike.
